Free Player Lab TrialBasketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 11/14/16
Last night right around lineup lock I got a text from my wife saying to come outside to look at the super moon. What was I supposed to do? Sitting and waiting on injury news, determining usage distributions was going to mean I might just miss this once in a lifetime "event". Luckily it was too cloudy so I had an excuse. And we're back at it tonight with five games on the slate. Hopefully no super moon alarms tonight.
Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NBA optimizer, our NFL Optimizer, and our new NFL player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.
First time with NBA? Be sure to read our free NBA Ebook on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.
Point Guards
Kyrie Irving FD - $7400 DK - $7400
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 37.65 DK - 40.16
Uncle Drew torched the Raptors in their first meeting of the season with a 26/6/6 line. Of course the big change for Kyrie this season is that scoring. He's shooting 20% more from the field and taking nearly 50% more threes than his career averages. It helps that he's getting great looks with teams needing to suck into the lanes on Lebron's drive and kicks (or out of the post in double teams). This is Irving's offense to score in now and the strategy on the part of the Cavs is more than clear. Cleveland has the second highest implied total on a night in which we could see some depressed scoring. Many of the teams playing are of the slower variety so stacking cash games with a couple (or mor) Cavs should make sense.
Kyle Lowry FD - $8000 DK - $7600
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 38.04 DK - 40.72
In general, Cleveland is a very good defensive team. But they do struggle against opposing point guards. Irving's game isn't about the D and opposing ones are able to drive and find lanes against him. Over the last two seasons Cleveland's allowed about 5% more scoring than league average to opposing point guards. That isn't other-worldly bad, but it's by far the most they allow to any position. Lowry can score but he's carried over some post-season shooting woes into this year where he's only hitting 28% of the time from three. That's way down off his career averages and the longer it goes on the more it's a concern. But Toronto is playing Lowry and Derozan major minutes right now because they're desperate for the pair's scoring ability. The kind of volume can make up for his struggles from the field and his shooting has kept the price in check.
Rajon Rondo FD - $5500 DK - $5700
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 32.62 DK - 34.75
I know, I know it doesn't look pretty. Taking a gander down Rondo's game log can induce a little bit of nausea but it's also what keeps the price on the lower end. A big part of it stems from the shooting issues. He's running terrible from the field. Never a marksman to begin with, this season it's bad even for him. The 34% field goal percentage is flat out awful. But I do think he stands to see some regression and has a good matchup here against Lillard who can't defend. Rondo's per minute rebounding numbers are up over his career averages and he's coming so very cheap. If this game stays close and he see minutes in the mid 30's then I do think you're getting away with something.
Want a different take on DFS NHL? Check out what FantasyFactor is doing in their fun, season long NHL challenge! In their words, only NHL enthusiasts need apply!
Shooting Guards
DeMar DeRozan FD - $9200 DK - $8800
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 43.44 DK - 44.75
It's pretty crazy what Derozan's doing this year. Long known as an in-the-lane chucker who'd also occasionally settle for an ill-advised long two (or ten) dude's been a lot to handle in the early part of the season. He's just driving the basket over and over and over again. He'll keep defenses on their toes by pulling up in the lane, but he's also drawing a ton of fouls in the process. He's getting to the line 10 times per game to go with the 24 shots per game from the field. This kind of usage is pretty unreal and wasn't totally expected heading into this season. But hell, it's kind of working. Derozan leads the league in scoring by about 10% more than the next highest guy thanks to getting to the line at an elite level. And much like Lowry, the Raptors need to keep Demar on the court for practically the whole game. He's a solid cash game play simply because few other players replicate his minutes and usage.
Dion Waiters FD - $4300 DK - $4200
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 23.91 DK - 25.4
Josh Richardson FD - $4000 DK - $4800
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 27.06 DK - 28.4
Waiters isn't an easy guy to roster on a nightly basis because he's been known to put a DFS'er on tilt with disappearing acts. With Dragic out though they do need some steady scoring and Waiters put up a lot of shots last night against the Spurs. This is a much better (and quicker) opponent in the Hawks leaving upside for Waiters at these prices. Dion's per minute rebounding and assists are up with his new role in the Miami offense and he's coming off a night in which he put up more than 20 shots. Few other players in this price range have that kind of chucking shot volume opportunity. Almost from that standpoint alone I'm fine playing him tonight on both sites. He doesn't cost much for a guy who can score 20+.
In that same backcourt is Richardson who once again drew the start last night at the point in place of Dragic. The Heat want to keep Tyler Johnson's play-making ability in the second unit with Richardson running the point to start. The minutes for J-Rich only touched about 30 and he wasn't great against the Spurs. But the Hawks aren't the Spurs and I think you can roster him rather safely. In fact, on FD I might even just go double cheap with both Richardson and Waiters.
Small Forwards
LeBron James FD - $9900 DK - $10300
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 47.42 DK - 49.72
This slate is nearly devoid of expensive options. Lebron is the most expensive play on both sites, but it isn't like the he's out of the box pricey. King James has the highest floor of anyone playing tonight even in a slower matchup against the Raptors. His minutes are on lock and the big shift for James this season is the spike in assists. He's clearly deferring the offense to Kyrie and Love and I'm sure we'll be talking about that most of the season. That does cut somewhat into his top end fantasy upside simply because to hit the stratosphere you really need to score in bunches. This isn't to say he can't, but Lebron's per minutes shot attempts and overall scoring are down significantly this season. But the floor is so high because he does everything you could ever want on the court. He's the easy cash game play tonight.
Justise Winslow FD - $5000 DK - $5500
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 27.72 DK - 28.95
He's still seeing plenty of shots in the Heat offense. And though he's not, as of yet, considered anywhere close to a good shooter, the epic run bad from the field from the beginning of the season looks to be behind him. He's still sitting very much in the lower middle tier which can yield high upside considering Winslow does chip in with little bits of everything across the box score. With Dragic out there are some usage upticks for the revamped starting five and Atlanta is actually playing at a much faster pace this year. We could still be looking at regression coming from three for Winslow who's sitting below his career average behind the arc (which isn't a great number to begin with, but points to just how bad he was to start the season). I suspect he's a chalkier play on this shorter slate.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson FD - $4300 DK - $4500
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 28.15 DK - 29.08
Bojan Bogdanovic FD - $4000 DK - $4200
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 23.11 DK - 24.8
Another season of us rostering dudes against the Lakers. Some things never get old. They aren't as epically bad as in the past but are still below league average in team defensive efficiency and are exposed to wing play especially. The leaves RHJ and Bojan in interesting spots on the cheap. I can't call either one safe because the Nets are a mess with their minutes and rotations. But, for the Nets, these guys do see the minutes on a regular enough basis. Understand, neither of them are very good. But in this tier we're looking for guys who play minutes and have some scoring upside. It's tough thinking about running either for cash games. But the opponents puts them in GPP consideration for sure.
Power Forwards
Kevin Love FD - $7500 DK - $7800
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 36.14 DK - 38.16
It sure seems like power forward is the most difficult to roster night in and night out. I think it's mostly because the traditional power forward does have a solid place in the current NBA. More teams are shifting their small forwards up to a small ball four and it leaves the rest of the position as bit players (Or Brow and Blake). But there is Love who is a stretch four that actually rebounds. They're becoming fewer and farther between. But Love is also reaping the benefits of a Cavs' offense running through Lebron and out for more Love scoring opportunities. While he's shooting less threes this season, he's taking more shots overall (about a 16% increase over last season). The rebounding remains solid and if the Cavs are incentivized to get him scoring early then he still makes a strong cash game play.
Nikola Mirotic FD - $4300 DK - $4800
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 27.69 DK - 29.71
It's somewhat speculative because Mirotic comes off the bench and that always poses a number of different risks in DFS. But consider this: the last time Doug McDermott sat out Mirotic saw 35 minutes on his way to a 17/6/1 line. It makes sense too. He and McDermott are the long range shooters off the bench. With McDermott out, the Bulls really need Mirotic to stretch the court. They don't have any other shooters off the bench and I think you could see the minutes spike again in this one. His game is also tailored to matching up against a smaller Blazer team. Again, it's speculative but I fine with it considering his price.
Taj Gibson FD - $5500 DK - $5500
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 28.71 DK - 29.54
Man do I wish the Bulls would just throw him out there for 32 minutes. Instead Fred Hoiberg has Taj's 28 minutes on near lock which just kills the upside. Though he's getting it done even with somewhat limited starter's minutes. Taj benefits from a couple of Bulls' changes this year. First they have a pass first point guard in Rondo who can find Gibson on pick and rolls as well as drives. Additionally, the Bulls are spacing the floor which helps increase the rebounding. Taj's shot attempts per minute are up nearly 50% this season and the rebounding's up 10%. All's great except those pesky minutes.
Centers
Karl-Anthony Towns FD - $8400 DK - $8200
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 45.87 DK - 48.19
He's likely to give the Charlotte front court a tough time tonight. They don't have much in the way of interior defense and opposing centers are scoring about 12% more than league average this season. Noo of course KAT vacillates between the four and the five so it's tough calling him just a center. But he'll create mismatches for Cody Zeller, Hibbert, Hawes or whoever else the Hornets throw at him. The big change for KAT this season is how he's nearly tripled his looks from three. He's taking more than 3.5 per game and knocking them down at a 40% clip. That keeps defenses so honest and it's while you'll see him drive the lane as much as any big man. Opposing bigs who range out to stop the three get caught in between.
Robin Lopez FD - $4400 DK - $4600
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 26.7 DK - 27.69
If you think he's penciled in for about 30 minutes in a close game then Ro-Lo is a fine value in this price range. Portland's been below average against opposing centers over the last couple of seasons in both scoring and rebounding (especially the latter). It makes sense when you throw guys like Mason Plumlee, Meyers Leonard and any host of smaller outsized fours down along the blocks. The Bulls should show Lopez big minutes here because he can clog the lane on defense preventing the Dame drives, but also work the glass on Plumlee. His per minute rebounding numbers are great for this price and range and we are only really worried about the minutes.
GRAB A FREE TRIAL OF OUR PROJECTION SYSTEM, AND CHECK OUT DFSR PRO!
GET OUR FREE EBOOK ON DAILY FANTASY NBA!
And Daily Fantasy NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings every day!
image sources
- LeBron_James_3409937543: By Keith Allison from Baltimore, USA (LeBron James) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
26 Visitor Comments
Post a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
FREE EBOOK
SECRETS TO CRUSHING DAILY FANTASY FOOTBALL!DON'T SET ANOTHER LINEUP BEFORE YOU READ THIS BOOK.
Lineup optimizer doing wonders right now -nobody ever
Barea Hollis Jefferson Olynyk and Richardson sure did work tonight cya fuckin never 500$ fix up please
Lol, they don’t predict the future, your an idiot if you get mad when you don’t win at DFS every single day.
Lopez and the nets are playing the Lakers, not Portland.
Robin Lopez plays for Chicago. Who plays Portland. You’re thinking of his brother, Brook.
Hit 280+ in every line up last night…cha ching!!! Suprisingly, best line up was a literal scrubs and duds featuring Westbrook, Harden and Davis that I put out there just to see what would happen. Everyone, you can sink by keep taking advice from the experts if you like but doing your own research pays off. These guys thought Reggie Jackson was playing and don’t know which teams people play for. Spending an hour a day on research will prevent you from waking up to low 200 totals which seems to be the average for the almighty optimizer.
Nogueira from Toronto is a sneaky play tonight. Sub 5,000 on FanDuel putting up 6,7 times his price tag! Plays CLE tonight. Toronto will need him tonight.
Ouch!!
Hey just wanted to say thank for the free advice night in and night out. I sure as hell wouldn’t want to do it. The only thing I would change is that the people that bitch about it, you should politely tell them to suck your balls.
Nate…this site cost me hundreds of dollars the first half of baseball season because I thought it was inside info from experts like it implies. Free advice is always appreciated, but when one’s hard earned money is involved it should be valid. I have seen several posts on here from people that paid money for that optimizer tool that go WEEKS without winning a penny. That is a double whammy. I am not trolling, but urging people to start doing their own research like I did so they will stop throwing their money away. I want you all to win. There is enough money to go around. It took me too long to realize it, but these guys know less about these sports than your average daily fantasy player. They know numbers, but lack the basic knowledge about the sport itself that is required to put you over the top in DFS.
If I lost hundreds I just wouldn’t play. It’s gambling, if u put your hard earned money on what someone else says that’s on you. And as far as paying for advice, that’s just stupid. If you don’t know the sport well enough to make your own decisions then stop playing.
Jerome your an ass.
Thank you Nate. That is my point exactly. Jeffrey, I am not an ass. You do not know me, so I have no idea how you came to that conclusion. I guess you have the right to think that, but it is not accurate.
Does anyone think dieng will have a “rebound” game and also think Wiggins can handle Gilchrist D? Last one, is this not a good time to play shroeder?
Jerome is always here either giving “advice”, boasting about his winnings or bitching about losing.
Ban this fool
No need. If you people want to listen to bad advice and lose your money then that is fine with me. I was here to help, but see that it is not wanted here. This is a country of lemings after all as witnessed by the election last week. Gluttons for punishment, optimize on!!!! Jerome has left the building.
Jerome, I use the site and I read the free advice. I also use the lineup optimizer. Generally speaking, in the NBA, I only use the optimizer lineup in the double ups and cash games and that’s it. I usually come out a little ahead doing that. I typically create 2-3 other lineups in which I use a combination of my own research, suggested plays and projected points in the standard tool to fill in any gaps. Last year, I did the same thing and won about a half a dozen tournaments that paid 1st place between $400 and $600, particularly on the slates with fewer games, like the turbo, late and later slates.
MOST of the time I don’t engage in this stuff…but…didn’t Doug qualify for the FBWC last year?
And I have won $ with Shaun. But he’s really not on here :). People, use it or not, it is free. And don’t just look at the names. Read why they chose that certain player. Good luck.
Ha!!!!!! Country of lemmings??? You really are an idiot. This country maybe going down hill but instead of bitching about it like a lot of other douches, try doing something positive. I know this site is not about politics and I probably shouldn’t voice my opinion but it’s P.C. pussies like you who have made this country falter.
Let’s focus on winning some $ yo!!!!!
Really. You would be a fool to use straight line-ups from the optimizer. Don’t do that!!! This is research already done for you. I read it every day to find out who’s out and whose in. I do other research. But…I research the numbers..just like these guys. Use it or not, thats up to you, and on you…Now does anybody know if Rondo and LaVine are out…Sometimes I can’t wait til Line-up lock.
I’ll drank too that
Since I am such a lemming,,,,”TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP”
lol
Sorry got a little grumpy there haven’t cashed in awhile and figured with all the injuries this was my night to turn it around. Also it’s not like it was recycled money ide won so it stung that much more and Jeffrey the next Jeffrey I meat from south of my border I’m smacking directly in the teeth congrats. FDT
If you’re relying purely on this site then you’re probably best off stepping away for a few weeks. IIRC, the last couple years they haven’t really hit their stride predicting til around 30 games in.
Once the sample sizes are up, and the predictions are more based on more “team X gives up 13% more pts to PG’a”, and less “Tobias Harris is due”, then the models start to work.