Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 11/16/16

Harden vs. Russ. Russ vs. Harden. Multiple triple double alerts going off tonight. This is appointment DFS television folks. Buckle up.

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Point Guards

Russell Westbrook FD - $11500 DK - $11900
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 58.29 DK - 62.32
Well this is going to really be something tonight isn't it? We have the number one usage guy in the NBA going against the number seven guy in a game projected to be close with a 216.5 over/ under at the open. The only real question is if you can afford both. Now of course, OKC has flaws. They showed as much the other night against Detroit where they couldn't really get anyone but Westbrook going. But man oh man. This guy is really something else. His 40.8% usage is by far the highest of anyone playing more than thirty or so minutes a game (sorry Embiid) and he's essentially a triple double waiting to happen (against another guy who's a also a triple double waiting to happen). On DK it's hard to play both guys, but not on FD where I see them as the chalkier game stack in cash.

Emmanuel Mudiay FD - $5600 DK - $5700
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 33.54 DK - 36.37
Yeah, yeah, yeah I know. I know. He was other-worldly brutal the other night He shot 3-16 from the field and had the boys at DFSR on mega tilt. Tonight the matchup is so choice though that I think you can go back to the well for cash games. Because there are so many expensive (high upside) options tonight, getting a guy in the mid tier like Mudiay the fastest-paced team in the league does give him upside. Basically, other teams are daring him to shoot and he's struggling. He's never going to be a sharpshooter but there should be a little regression coming in his field goal percentages. Denver has the highest implied total on the night and with Will Barton and Gary Harris both out there are some backcourt minutes out there.

Marcus Smart FD - $5700 DK - $5700
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 28.2 DK - 30.1
With Jae Crowder out of the lineup the Celts have been playing super small with Smart, Thomas and Bradley at the 1,2,3. Smart is such a versatile player and defender that the Celts can keep him on the court for long periods of time and his minutes have really gotten a boost in the short term. Outside of a rough game against the Pacers, Smart's been crushing these prices mostly because he can contribute in just about every area of the stat line. If he's going to be on the court for 35+ minutes a night then you can almost count on him to put enough of a line together. Plus this is a sloppier (and talent-strapped) Mavs team.

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Shooting Guards

James Harden FD - $11500 DK - $12200
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 59.66 DK - 63.23
Remember the other triple-double guy I was mentioning? Here you go. Harden's averaging a completely insane 30/13/8 this season and if he keeps it up will likely jump to the front of the line for MVP (though man, Westbrook's numbers are also ridiculous). Obviously the biggest change for Harden are the outlandish assist numbers thanks to him running the point full on. All of his other per minute numbers are basically in line with his career averages with the assists up 60% over last season. It's really something what the D'Antoni offense has done for him and his floor in this matchup is as high as you'll see in a game. There are three big plays tonight and I think Russ/ Harden is the way to go with Davis on the outside looking in.

Victor Oladipo FD - $5100 DK - $5500
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 30.65 DK - 32.72
There's a lot of reason to hate this pick and I get it. But we are almost at a price breaking point for Dipo. The Thunder almost need to play him minutes considering the rest of their backcourt options (after Russ) are so thin. He's more a traditional two guard in this offense so you won't see him with the assist or rebounding numbers he put up in Orlando. But that's built into the price. Last game, even in a blowout he put up 17 shots and three of the last four games he's put up around that many. OKC is getting him looks, he just isn't knocking them down. In a fast-paced game I'm willing to go to the well one more time though I would completely understand the hesitation.

Wesley Matthews FD - $4600 DK - $4800
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 24.22 DK - 26.25
Look, I get it. You hate the guy. He's burned you. He's on your "Never again" list and so on and so forth. You don't want to look at his mg ever again. But that floor is basically built into his price now and I suspect the Mavs will play him major minutes tonight because he's versatile on D and can cover a bunch of positions when the Celtics go small. He's a risky play and I'll be hard pressed to do it in cash because man can this guy disappear even with crazy high minutes. But I do think he has GPP upside if there's no Dirk and he can get the three to fall.

Small Forwards

Harrison Barnes FD - $6000 DK - $7000
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 36.65 DK - 38.34
I'm going to work under the assumption here that Dirk will sit out again on Wednesday night. And if the big man sits then Barnes is the direct fantasy beneficiary. Per NBAWowy when Dirk is on the court this season Barnes has a 15% usage, but Dirk off and Barnes climbs to 27% which is entering elite territory. He's taking a ton of shots in this (rough) offense and has kept the rebounding mixed in as well. Look, the Mavs are a bad team right now, but they need to play Barnes major minutes even in blowouts (which I don't think the Celts can do). Boston is a bottom five team in defensive efficiency this season and the Mavs should at least be able to put up points.

Trevor Ariza FD - $5300 DK - $5600
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 26.33 DK - 28.44
Outside of Russ and Beard I'm focusing on mid tier and lower value guys because I think you will need them to round out your lineups. On FD, after rostering those two guys you basically have a little north of 5K per player left. Ariza fits the bill here because he's in line for major minutes (35+ I suspect) and should have corner looks at three in a fast-paced game. Ariza's numbers this year are mostly in line with what he was doing last season on a per minute basis, but he is getting more threes up thanks to the pace and Harden's drive and kick profile. Doesn't kill you on FD and the three point looks are an added bonus on DK where they're worth an extra half point for a make (for reasons I can't totally figure out). I'm looking for minutes in this price range and the run helps boost Ariza's floor.

Marcus Morris FD - $5300 DK - $5400
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 28.68 DK - 30.13
The Knicks are the worst defensive efficiency team in the league right now which more than makes up for their slower pace when rostering against them. The big news on Morris this season (at least with Reggie Jackson off the court for now) is the field goal attempts. He's seen a 25% or so increase in his looks from the field (per minute) with a good portion of it coming from downtown even though he's running a little off his career averages in efficiency there. Like him against a weak Knick team who defend the SF/PF position at slightly worse than league average this season.

Power Forwards

Ryan Anderson FD - $5000 DK - $5200
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 28.47 DK - 30.6
Noticing a Rockets' theme here? You should be. Whereas the Thunder run some weird rotations and are tough to pin down on a minutes basis, the Rockets run pretty similar rotations as of late and Anderson's been a part of the plan. He's getting more than enough looks from three but the last two games he's gone 2-13 which has effected the look of his game log. Don't read too much into it. That's just run bad from outside and I have no problem rostering him again tonight. The rebounding numbers are just good enough to keep him from being a total disaster if the shot isn't falling and his inconsistency from three has kept the price in check.

Markieff Morris FD - $5900 DK - $6100
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 30.17 DK - 32.01
Have I mentioned a 1,000 times this season that I hate rostering a power forward. I really hate having to do it twice on FD. There's a reason our system rarely plays a pure PF on DK with the multiposition eligibility. The actual, traditional PFs either A: don't play enough minutes because their teams want to go small more or B: are just a little too expensive without the big upside you'll find at other positions in the same price tier. This is a long way to say, Markieff is interesting but mostly because I need to pick a few guys at the position. With Wall and Beal banged up for the Wiz there is more usage for a guy like Markieff who can (at times) create his own shot and also range beyond the arc. He's also in line for minutes because the Wiz need bodies right now.

Tobias Harris FD - $6000 DK - $6500
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 30.36 DK - 31.79
Much of what I said about Marcus Morris applies to Harris as well. With Reggie Jackson off the court and Ish Smith a lower usage, ball distributing PG, the shots have cascaded down the starting five. Harris is seeing way more shots per minutes and shooting better from the field and from three. That being said, the rebounding and assists are down some so it's not all gravy. I'm not enamored with this play but it's indicative of the position as a whole rather than just a Harris thing. The Knicks stink on D so most of the Pistons are in a good spot here with mismatches.

Consider Jon Leuer on the cheaper side if Drummond were to sit again.

Centers

Joel Embiid FD - $5600 DK - $6100
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 34.35 DK - 35.69
It's amazing that a guy who's only looking at a max 24 minutes a night is even in contention for cash games at these prices. But Embiid is no average guy. He's not even an average NBA player. He's just plain awesome. Embiid, as I mentioned earlier in this writeup, is the second highest usage player in the NBA. That's unreal for a center. He's a generational talent and is averaging an absurd 18/7/1/2 in only 22 minutes per game this season. Again, he's a center. I'm fine continuing to pay this FD and DK price at a weaker position especially if some of the cheaper punt guys don't pan out. There's some risk he sits the first half of the back-to-back but he's been playing most of the first sets so I think he's out there tonight against a garbage Wiz team.

Steven Adams FD - $5100 DK - $5500
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 27.49 DK - 28.62
Fair warning, I like Embiid significantly better in the same price tier. Adams is more a plug and play in this salary range who gets a solid matchup against the Rockets tonight. The game projects as close and high scoring, leaving him room to pad the rebounding stats if he sees the minutes. He's not in the same class as Embiid (even with like 35% more minutes) but has a decent floor if he's able to score in the paint. Russ takes so much usage on this Thunder team that we really need Adams to just hang around on the court to hit value.

Consider Aron Baynes if Drummond sits again and Kelly Olynyk if Horford is out again.

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