Daily Fantasy Nascar Picks
Ford EcoBoost 400

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Ford EcoBoost 400

Homestead-Miami Speedway - Homestead, Florida
Track - 1.5 Mile Oval Intermediate Track
18°- 20° Banking in the Corners

Nine months and 35 races later we have reached the pinnacle of the NASCAR Sprint Cup series season. Four drivers and once race to decide the Champion with some very intriguing storylines. Let's take a look at a few.

Jimmie Johnson # 48 Lowe's Chevrolet (Hendrick Motorsports)

Jimmie will be looking to join legends and Hall of Fame members Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt by picking up his seventh career Sprint Cup Championship. This is the first trip to the final four for Jimmie in the three years of the Chase format. He has never picked up a win here despite the six championships but never really had to in the format as he had most of those titles wrapped up by now. In 15 career races here he has four Top 5's and 10 Top 10 finishes with a 14.07 average finish.

Kyle Busch #18 M&M's Toyota (Joe Gibbs Racing)

In a comeback season for the ages in 2015 Kyle Busch raced his way to his first ever Sprint Cup Championship. He will look to be the first to repeat as champion since guess who? Jimmie Johnson. He snuck into the final round after his chances looked slim late in the race. Teammate Matt Kenseth made contact with Alex Bowman which caused a late caution and propelled Kyle to a runner up and into the final. In an interview last week he was one of the drivers who made it clear he would not hesitate to move ANYONE to get the win. Don't expect that to change with a championship on the line.

Carl Edwards #19 Arris Toyota (Joe Gibbs Racing)

Carl is finally back in position to win a championship after coming so close five years ago. He entered the final race here at Homestead with a three point lead over Tony Stewart but unfortunately finished second to Tony in the race and the championship. It has been an up and down Chase for Edwards who recorded just three Top 10's in the first nine races but one was a win at Texas just two weeks ago. He has a teammate in the final but as he showed earlier in the year he won't hesitate to move another driver out of the way, even if it's another JGR car.

Joey Logano #22 Shell Penzoil Ford (Team Penske)

He has been in this position before which explains why he sounds much calmer in radio and television interviews leading up to the race. He was inside the Top 10 late in the race back in 2014 before a pit road mistake by the crew cost them a championship. He has been terrific leading up to the finale at Homestead winning each of the last two elimination races. Can he make it three?

 

This week for fantasy I would center the majority of my lineups around the final four drivers no matter where they start. There is a good chance they all finish inside the Top 5 or crash trying. If you are a player who likes to go contrarian building a lineup around non Chase drivers would be the way to do that this week. Let's take a look at my favorite plays for the final week of the season.

 

The following is the initial schedule for the weekend:

• First Practice - Friday @ 12:30 p.m. ET
• Qualifying - Friday @ 6:15 p.m. ET
• Practice 2 - Saturday @ 10:00 a.m. ET
• Final Practice - Saturday @ 1:00 p.m. ET
• Race - Sunday @ 2:30 p.m. ET

 

Are you looking to streamline your research process and spend more time making lineups? Check out my DFS NASCAR Cheatsheet. If you have any questions about the cheatsheet throw me an email(jagerbombs99@gmail.com) or hit me up on Twitter(@jager_bombs9).

 

Upper Tier Targets ($9,000+)

 

Kyle Busch
DraftKings - $10,500
Practice #1 - 8th
Qualified - 9th
Practice #2 - 28th
Final Practice -

In case you haven't been following over the last two seasons I am a huge Kyle Busch fan so this pick comes with a little bias. I have tried to not let that bias affect my decision making in fantasy sports and it has worked out quite well. Of the five drivers above $10K this week I think Kyle has the best value for DFS for a few reasons. Over the past five years he has lead almost double the laps(248) of any other driver along with his win last year is the only driver to finish Top 10 in all fives races. I also feel with the salaries so close together that Jimmie will consume a large amount of ownership this week adding to the value of Busch. Don't get me wrong I think you make a case for all four of the final drivers and I will have all four rostered this week but the majority of my lineups will be centered around Busch. When all the attention was around Jeff Gordon last year he prevailed. This year it's Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart stealing the spotlight. Look for Busch to find that light once again on the final laps.

 

Carl Edwards
DraftKings - $9,700
Practice #1 - 9th
Qualified - 10th
Practice #2 - 3rd
Final Practice - 

Value is the #1 reason Edwards climbs up into the picks this week. He is the cheapest of the final four drivers and even comes in behind two non Chasers(Harvick, Truex Jr.) this week. In 12 career races he has picked up two wins(2008, 2010) and has the second highest average finish(9.25) of  all active drivers. He has repeatedly talked about using his 2011 experience as motivation and will be looking to attempt his biggest back flip of his career come late Sunday afternoon. He has also lead more laps here(568) than any other active driver so he comes with some added bonus point value this week for DFS.

 

Joey Logano
DraftKings - $10,200
Practice #1 - 4th
Qualified - 13th
Practice #2 - 6th
Final Practice - 

Logano has been, by far, the hottest driver coming into the final race of the season. He has five straight Top 10 finishes including two wins, one in each of the last two elimination races. Talk about a clutch performance at the right time. He has experienced a lot through his short career making him a seasoned vet at a ripe age of 26 years old. He has come oh so close to a championship in each of the first two years of the Chase elimination format. His car fell off the jack during a late pit stop in 2014 here at Homestead which all but ended his hopes. Last year he took matters into his own hands taking out Matt Kenseth which resulted in pay back later in the Chase ending the #22's strong run. Things feel different in 2016 as he made it all the way here without making enemies or running into back luck. He showed Top 5 speed in the opening practice and will look to qualify at the front comes Friday night. He is strong pick and has a good chance at delivering not only some dominator points for fantasy owners but a championship for Roger Penske.

 

 

Also Consider - Jimmie Johnson ($10,800)

 

Middle Tier Targets ($7,000-$9,000)

 

Denny Hamlin
DraftKings - $8,600
Practice #1 - 11th
Qualified - 4th
Practice #2 - 16th
Final Practice - 

He fell just short of making it into the final four and will look to close out the season on a high note. He had a decent Chase with six Top 10's in nine races but just couldn't get that coveted win. He now comes to a track where he has enjoyed a ton of success. He has two career wins here and over the past five years has a win and has finished four of the five races inside the Top 10. His price is at its lowest point since Watkins Glen earlier in the season making him safe in all formats this week.

 

 

Alex Bowman
DraftKings - $7,400
Practice #1 - 14th
Qualified - 19th
Practice #2 - 18th
Final Practice - 

He had the car to beat last weekend at Phoenix and was on the brink of a series win before Kyle Busch got into him leaving him with a 6th place finish. He has been impressive lately finishing 13th or better in three of his last four races with two Top 10's. He is without a ride for 2017 so expect him and the #88 to give it all they got once again. I would so far as to say he is a safe play in all formats at a mid $7K price tag.

 

 

Also Consider - Ryan Newman ($7,800)

 

 

Low End Targets ($6,900 and Below)

 

Paul Menard
DraftKings - $6,500
Practice #1 - 12th
Qualified - 28th
Practice #2 - 24th
Final Practice - 

The bottom tier is always so reliant on qualifying and final practice speeds but prior to those happening Menard looks like a strong play this week. I am writing this after opening practice and he came out with the 12th fastest speed and sits 17th in my overall model. He is one of only two drivers in the bottom tier(Allmendiner the other) to record a Top 10 finish here at Homestead over the past five years. He is also coming off his first Top 10 in nearly four months. Ride the wave.

 

 

Also Consider - Landon Cassill ($5,800)

 

 

 

 

 

Post Practice & Qualifying Update

Qualifying Top 15

 

 

If you have any questions on lineups or drivers prior to lineup lock scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.

 

Good Luck everyone!

 

 

 

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.