Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 11/20/16

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Point Guards

Russell Westbrook FD - $11500 DK - $12000
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 53.15 DK - 58.38
It's a relatively short slate today, and there are precious few ways to spend up. Blessedly, we have Russell Westbrook. Westbrook's worst performance in his last 5 was a 50 fantasy point performance against the Rockets, and there's no reason to think that the above projection is unreasonable. He leads the league in usage by a country mile at an astounding 40%, and he's put up career totals in rebounds while posting double digit assists as well. He's the clear best player in fantasy right now, and a league average match-up with Teague and the Pacers isn't enough to scare us off grabbing him here.

Kyle Lowry FD - $8300 DK - $8200
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 37.3 DK - 40.87
Lowry has been good for a steady in unspectacular 40 fantasy points per game basically since the 3rd game of the season, and like Westbrook, is putting up career high in boards while flirting with his career high in assists. Sacramento hasn't been the great fantasy match-up that they were last season largely as a result of their significantly slower pace, but Lowry is consistent enough that that shouldn't matter all too much. He isn't a high upside play here, but should be able to get his way against Ty Lawson.
 

Jeff Teague FD - $6600 DK - $6800
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 36.7 DK - 39.79
This loses some of its lustre if Paul George is back for sure, but he's been good enough that he warrants an inclusion here. His usage jumps from 25% to 30% with George off the court this season, and he's chipped in 3 straight 5x points per dollar performances with George sidelined. And then there's the Thunder - Russell Westbrook has been too busy just destroying teams on the offensive end to play a whole lot of defense. The Thunder have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season, and their 5th fastest pace of play means Teague should have a high floor to go with his reasonably high ceiling.

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Shooting Guards

Rodney Hood FD - $5200 DK - $5700
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 29.31 DK - 31.72
Derrick Favors' continued absence is going to make a lot of the cheaper Utah guys attractive fantasy options, and Hood is no exception there. He's basically the same exact player that he was last year, and taking Favors' usage off the table just makes him that much more valuable. He's only paid less than 5x points per dollar in 2 of his starts since the beginning of November, and he does just enough around his scoring that he's more consistent than other shooting guards with a similar profile. Then there's the Nuggets - they've allowed the very most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season, and Jameer Nelson and Emmanuel Mudiay just lack the size to defend Hood well. He looks like a great play in any format.

Victor Oladipo FD - $5700 DK - $6200
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 27.02 DK - 29.67
We've been high on Oladipo all season, mostly after seeing that he was increasing his usage while getting an overall higher quality of shot. He hadn't turned that into great fantasy production until the last two games thanks to running bad on his open look, but that statistical regression came crashing in full effect in his last two games. And it makes perfect sense - he had to make his own shots in Orlando, and now opposing defenses have bigger problems on their hands. He's shooting more threes, making them at a higher rate, and shooting better on his twos as well. He's given back a bit in the rebounding and assist categories, but the increase in his scoring and the decrease in what you have to pay on FanDuel in DraftKings make him worth it in a league average match-up here.

Dwyane Wade FD - $6400 DK - $6100
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 34.63 DK - 36.83
Not a huge ceiling here perhaps, the floor on Wade on these prices should be pretty solid tonight. The Lakers are going to be running some combination of Jordan Clarkson, Lou Williams, and Nick Young on the defensive end, and none of those can hope to keep up with Wade's ridiculously polished offensive game. That group has allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season, and Wade rates to slightly outperform the 29 fantasy points per game he's put up so far this year.

Keep an eye on the Lakers situation. If D'Angelo Russell sits again it will mean a lot more opportunity for guys like Lou Williams and Jordan Clarkson.

Small Forwards

Small forward is weird today. There are a ton of question marks, ranging from Paul George's status to Gordon Hayward's finger, to Gallo's bad match-up with Utah, to the fact that a lot of teams not even running a fantasy viable small forward. I'll do my best here.

Jimmy Butler FD - $8500 DK - $8700
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 43.41 DK - 45.61
A lot of people (myself included) were down on Butler coming into this fantasy season, but the impact of of Wade and Rondo seems to have been a positive. The spacing in Chicago is much better than anticipated, and Butler has added 14% to his 3 point field goal percentage while shooting more of them per minute. Are the huge gains sustainable? I'm not totally sure, but at the very least I'd guess we can say that this is a better situation for Butler's field goal percentage (having other creators arond) than he's been in recently. The Lakers are as bad against small forwards as they are against shootin guards, and Butler is a nice mid-range option today.

Andre Roberson FD - $4000 DK - $4100
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 20.97 DK - 22.21
Yep, this is the state of small forward today. Roberson is no great shakes to be sure, and he can disappear from time to time, but he's actually been kinda great on these prices recently. He's paid better than 5x points per dollar in 4 of his last 5 games, and has been more active in nearly every phase of the game. The big thing to keep an eye on here is his shot totals. He didn't take double digit shots in a single regular season game last year, and has 9 or more shots in 4 of his last 5 games. He's playing more minutes, and with the increased shots, he's probably just more than a $4,000 player. He's not exciting at all, but on a short slate, he doesn't really have to be.

A quick word on Gallinari: The opportunity for him is undeniable right now, but the Utah match-up is absolutely abysmal. They play so slow that it's just tough for guys to get the volume they need to keep pace with their current pricing. Don't blame you if you play him over cheap guys like Roberson, but I'm going to try and stay away.

 

Power Forwards

Trey Lyles FD - $4000 DK - $4800
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 26.73 DK - 28.5
With Favors out for extended time, Lyles is the pretty clear beneficiary. Wtih 21 points and 5 boards against Houston, Lyles continued to demonstrate that he's a viale offensive option that can chip in on the boards as well. The match-up here is solid with the offense-first big men of Denver, but what you really like here is the price. If he's really going to play 33 minutes a game and get twelve shots up he's just going to be worth more than $4,000. As of this writing he's a must-include for me in all formats, as he's the exact kind of punt you want to be able to pay up elsewhere.

Thaddeus Young FD - $5200 DK - $5400
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 27.03 DK - 28.32
Sunday's slate carries the torch in the long standing tradition of having basically no exciting power forward options. Playing Thaddeus Young this year is kind of like working the same job with a 50% pay cut. You'll do it if you need to survive, but you won't be excited about it. He's actually been pretty steady, though, and Paul George missing this game would certainly be a deal sweetener. His usage doesn't go up with PG13 out, but his minutes do, and what you're really hoping for out of Thad is to put up the 10 points and 9 boards just because he's out on the court for enough time. The fast pace of the game should help there - but I'll certainly be keeping an eye out for better options as lineup lock approaches.

Also considered: Taj Gibson.

Keep an eye on Ed Davis. He got in foul trouble early, and didn' thave a ton of usage, but the rebounds were there and he has been less than in invisible offensively at times in the past. The position is so bad, as usual, that he might wind up being a start here.

 

Centers

Robin Lopez FD - $4700 DK - $5000
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 30.09 DK - 31.32
I'm writing this before the Bulls/Clippers game, but Rolo has provided the steadiest of diets of low end double doubles, which is just plenty on the price you're paying here. Lopez was a 26% start in cash games last night, and the story is basically the same. If you need a center and you have around his salary remaining, he's a more than acceptable option.

DeMarcus Cousins FD - $10200 DK - $10400
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 47.31 DK - 50.45
It looks like there will be some excellent cheap options on this slate, and you could do a lot worse than tapping Boogie as one of your big dollar payoffs. We're in the middle of a significant Good Boogie streak, with him paying 45 FanDuel fantasy points or better in each of his last 6 contests, and with his early season foul trouble woes behind him for now he is flashing as much upside as anyone. It's not a great match-up on the surface, but it's not a bad one, either. Valanciunas is an offense-first center, and Cousins did take him for 22/14 and 52.8 fantasy points in their first meeting this season. I would be very comfortable with Cousins anchoring my big money position today if need be, though it's not clear you can afford him just yet.

Rudy Gobert FD - $6500 DK - $6300
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 32.12 DK - 34.1
Basically a rich man's Robin Lopez, Gobert does everything Rolo does, but a little bit better. He's listed below Lopez because I think you're going to want to save on the salary, but what Gobert offers that Lopez doesn't is upside. The Jazz will occasionally (and probably stupidly) run him out there for 40 minutes in a game, and he's absolutely capable of a 15 rebound 5 block game where he pays 7x points per dollar on these prices. It's an excellent match-up with the Nuggets, who play fast and play badly. The only thing holding him out of top tier cash game recommendations for me is the inconsistency. Gobert will disappear at times thanks to his erratic rotations, and I'm not sure that's something you want to spend up for in 50/50s.

Steven Adams FD - $5000 DK - $5400
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 25.68 DK - 27.38

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