Weekly NFL Stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel - Week 13

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Week 13 NFL Stacks

Welcome back to another week of daily fantasy football my friends! Before digging in to the Week 13 slate we are going to take a look back at the results from last weeks stacks recommendations.

New England Patriots - Things didn't go exactly as I though in this game as the Jets didn't exactly shut the run game down but Brady still attempted 50 passes. Although he only completed 30 he still managed to record 286 yards through the air with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Edelman did end up leading the team in targets with 11 and caught eight for 83 yards but it was rookie Malcolm Mitchell stealing the how catching both of Brady's touchdown passes despite only recording 42 yards. The running back situation continues to be a pain to choose one as Blount got 11 carries and was productive while White and Lewis combined for 16 targets in the pass game. On the plus side there will be a ton of extra targets to go around for the remainder of the season as it was announced Rob Gronkowski is done for the year.

Arizona Cardinals - I was extremely excited to see how this game started as Carson Palmer and the Cards offense drove down the field on the first drive and scored a touchdown. It looked like GPP heaven until it wasn't. Palmer did end up with 289 yards passing and two touchdowns but the Falcons did a good job containing his favorite target in Larry Fitzgerald. The one thing that worked out in this one was using Palmer and David Johnson in a stack. DJ was shut down in the run game but that didn't stop him from hitting value once again. He caught eight balls on a team high 11 targets for 103 yards and a touchdown. At this point I don't think price matters at all as DJ is matchup proof in any game flow situation.

Oakland Raiders - While Amari Cooper was completely shut down that didn't stop the Raiders from putting up 24 points in the first half and beating the Panthers 35-32 on Sunday. This was a situation where I benefited from creating multiple Carr stacks, half with Cooper and half with Crabtree who returned after being limited all week in practice. He started and made a huge impact catching eight of his team high 13 targets for his first 100 yard game since Week 8. Derek Carr once again produced the volume we expected completing 26 of 38 pass attempts for his fourth 300+ yard game of the season.

Green Bay Packers - Last week we also discussed getting in on the Sunday-Monday slate and getting some exposure to Aaron Rodgers and the pass heavy Packers. It was a bit ballsy as they faced the Eagles stout defense but it paid off big time. Rodgers completed 30 of his 39 passes for 313 yards and two touchdowns, even while hobbling around with a bum hamstring. Jordy Nelson didn't have a blow up game but was very productive, especially on DraftKings with full point PPR, catching eight of his game high 12 targets for 91 yards. I also mentioned stacking Davante Adams who had a monster day catching five of his six targets for 113 yards and both of Rodgers touchdown passes.

Overall it was another successful week using the Player Lab tool. We will once again look to use it's fully customizable filters as we move on into Week 13 and beyond. Good luck!

 

 

 

 

 

New Orleans Saints
QB - Drew Brees
Elite Option - Willie Snead
Secondary Options - Brandin Cooks, Michael Thomas 

If you have done any sort of research for Week 13 you have probably already circled this game on the schedule. The Saints are six point home favorites to the Lions and own the slates highest projected team total right around 30 points. Don't get discouraged by the sky high price of Brees this week, he is an elite play with huge upside. The Saints rely on passing for  76% of their overall touchdowns and 74% of their overall yards which has helped Brees lead the league with 3,587 yards. Oh ya and he is also leading the league completing 71.5% of his passes which is amazing given volume each week. Dig deeper and you will see he has been incredible at home in the Superdome this season with 19 touchdowns and just four interceptions with a floor around 20 fantasy points and a ceiling around 40.

Even though the Lions rank 29th in Defense vs. the Pass they have two highly ranked corners in Darius Slay(5th) and Nevin Lawson(25th). Rankings are from Pro Football Focus which covers around 120 NFL cornerbacks. The matchup that Brees will most likely attempt to exploit this week will be Willie Snead in the slot who will face Quandre Diggs most of the time. In comparison to the other Lions corners, Diggs ranks 86th out of 120. Snead has seen seven or more targets in eight of his 10 games while recording five or more receptions in seven of those games and has shown multi touchdown upside. Like I mentioned, Thomas and Cooks have the harder matchups but also make upside GPP plays if you are constructing multiple Saints lineups.

 

 

 

 

 

Detroit Lions
QB - Matthew Stafford
Options - Golden Tate, Marvin Jones Jr.
Punt Option - Eric Ebron

On the other side of the ball the Lions also make a top stacking option with this game being the only one with a projected Vegas total of 50 or more. Stafford fell just outside of the filters I set above but if you adjust the "Poor Defense vs. the Pass" filter to 23rd poor worse he is right there with Brees. Based on the stats and recency bias, Stafford and the Lions should come in much lower owned than Brees making him a bit contrarian and perfect for large field GPP's paying out a small % of the field. Since throwing for 300+ yards in two of his first three games this season Stafford has failed to hit that mark in eight straight games. He was faced with a very difficult schedule lately facing the Vikings twice, the Jaguars and the Texans and if there was a week to break out it will be this one. The Lions are six-point dogs and should be forced to throw a ton which is backed up by the 41 pass attempt projection on the Player Lab. The only issue with the Lions is deciding who to stack Stafford with. Golden Tate has been the more productive and targeted option since Week 6 but he lacks upside averaging just 10.5 yards per catch while Marvin Jones Jr. ranks 6th among all receivers with a 17.5 average yards per catch. The home run upside definitely lies with Jones and the value is unbeatable, especially on DraftKings at $4,400. If you want to go completely contrarian at tight end this week add Eric Ebron to your stack. He will most likely come with rock bottom ownership as he put up a dud on Thanksgiving catching no balls on just one target.
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Seattle Seahawks
QB - Russell Wilson
Elite Option - Doug Baldwin
Secondary Option - Jimmy Graham 

There is nothing I like more in GPP's than targeting good teams coming off a dud week. This was definitely the case last week as the Seahawks were only able to produce a whopping five points last week in Tampa Bay. It doesn't concern me much as the Seahawks have been average at best on the road(2-3-1) averaging just 15 points per game. At home in CenturyLink Field has been a completely different story as they are 5-0 and averaging just over 26 points per game. Home Sweet Home! That is where they will be this week as the struggling Panthers come to town with their 19th ranked Defense vs. the Pass and 29th ranked when looking at passing yards allowed per game(275.2). Carolina is one only a few teams that see all three of their corners play a large majority of their snaps on one side of the field or in the slot. This is great news for Doug Baldwin who plays over 75% of his snaps out of the slot and matches up against Leonard Johnson who is one of the worst rated corners(115/120) in the league(via PFF). Baldwin is only projected for around seven targets this week but don't worry as he is a home run deep threat and is more than capable of scoring multiple touchdowns. Jimmy Graham also makes an intriguing stacking option as the Panthers have been one of the worst teams in the league this season giving up fantasy points to tight ends. Paying up for tight ends is a contrarian way to go with your lineups as they are very inconsistent with their fantasy production but Jimmy is one of the best and already has three 100+ yard games this season.

 

 

 

 

Buffalo Bills
QB - Tyrod Taylor
Elite Option - Sammy Watkins

After a week of consternation about his foot, #Bills coach Rex Ryan says of WR Sammy Watkins, “He’s going to play.”

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 2, 2016

If you are looking to go contrarian in large field tournaments this week consider the Bills. As you can see above Sammy Watkins is going to play through his foot injury and the Bills desperately need his services. They will be without Robert Woods and Percy Harvin(not really a loss is it?) who have been already ruled out so it will be Watkins, Marquise Goodwin and Justin Hunter running the WR corps on Sunday. Watkins looked pretty darn good in his return last week catching all three of his targets for 80 yards and made an incredible catch on a beautifully thrown ball from Taylor. Another reason this stack will be low owned is the Bills rely heavily on rushing for their yards and touchdowns limiting the bonus upside on DraftKings as Tyrod rarely reaches 300 yards passing. The good news is that he contributes big time in rushing game with five touchdowns on the season. He has also had five or more rushing attempts in all but one game this season. With a combined low ownership and salary I will definitely take a 250 yard passing game with two touchdowns and 50+ rushing yards. For Sammy to pay off it may only take one or two big plays. The matchup isn't elite as the Raider outside corners rank very well overall(via PFF) but the defense overall has given up 20 or more points in four straight and eight of their 10 games this season.

 

 

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