Weekly NFL Stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel - Week 14

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Week 14 NFL Stacks

Another Week of NFL DFS is in the books and that means we are inching closer to the end. We now have four weeks left in the regular season. Well, three weeks if you consider Week 17 to be a complete gamble of unknowns lie I do. We will cross that bridge when we get there. Before diving into Week 14 and my favorite picks, we will go over the results from last weeks' recommendations.

New Orleans Saints - While this game was projected to be the highest scoring on the slate, it was a complete disappointment from the Saints side of things. Brees did not even attempt a pass to a wide receiver until the 11:19 mark in the second quarter and didn't complete one until the 5:49 mark. It was an opening half run heavy and dink and dunk game plan. Brees ended up completing 31 of 44 passes for 326 yards but averaged just 7.4 yards per attempt. He didn't record a touchdown pass at home for the first time since 2009(60 games) and was picked off by the Lions three times. I am not taking too much away from this performance besides it was an unusual day for the Saints at home. They now go on the road to Tampa Bay and are once again involved in the highest projected scoring game of the week. Rating F

 

Detroit Lions - On the other side of the game stack, the Lions didn't disappoint as Matthew Stafford lead the way to victory completing 30 of 42 passes for 341 yards and two touchdowns. With Marvin Jones Jr. ruled out, it was Golden Tate who benefited the most catching eight of his game high 10 targets for 145 yards and a touchdown. He caught balls over the middle, made an amazing catch down the sideline, and also showed his run after the catch ability. No other player had over 50 yards on the day. Rating A

 

Seattle Seahawks - This one didn't go exactly as planned as the Seahawks completely rolled over the Panthers. The one part of the Panthers that was working was the run defense which was the main reason I leaned on stacking Wilson/Baldwin/Graham. Things definitely changed this past week as Thomas Rawls literally ran all over the Panthers D for 106 yards on 15 carries and added two touchdowns. The passing game was able to salvage some fantasy points as Wilson threw for 277 yards and a touchdown while also running for 29 yards. His touchdown pass went to Jimmy Graham who caught six of his nine targets for 63 yards. Doug Baldwin played more of an over the middle role catching all seven of his targets for 65 yards(9.3 yards per catch). The matchup is great on Sunday but beware as there is a 75% chance of snow on Sunday in Green Bay. Rating B-

 

Buffalo Bills - My contrarian spot was also bust last week as the Bills continued to be an extremely run heavy team. Tyrod Taylor looked lost at times in the pocket and completed just 51% of his passes for 191 yards. The one positive to take away is that Sammy Watkins lead the Bills in targets(9) but was only able to secure three for 38 yards. Grade F

 

Alright, now that we have reviewed last week's report card let's dig into the Week 14 matchups through the Player Lab tool and find soem top stackign options this week.

 

This week I will be combining the High Vegas O/U, High Team Pass TD & Yard % and Poor Defense vs. Pass filter on the Player Lab tool to break down some of the top stacking options for tournaments this week. Let's take a look.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
QB - Jameis Winston
Elite Option - Mike Evans
Secondary Option - Cameron Brate

It worked last week and I am going back to the well this week targeting the Saints in the week's highest projected scoring game. This week they travel to Tampa Bay to face Jameis Winston and the red hot Bucs who have won four straight games. Winston has been a boom or bust option this season completing just 61% of his passes but the upside is too much to pass up. Looking at the Player Lab tool above it is clear he is in a great situation as the Bucs rely on the pass for 80% of their touchdowns and over 70% of their total yards. On top of that, he is averaging over 36 pass attempts and just over 265 yards per game. He is projected to crush those averages this week against a Saints defense that ranks 26th against the Pass on the Player Lab and are currently allowing the 2nd most yards per game(276.8). When stacking in tournaments it is always +EV to find a team that not only passes a ton but has a clear #1 receiving option. This fits the Bucs profile perfectly. I discussed how they heavily rely on passing above and they also have an elite wideout in Mike Evans. He is the NFL's most targeted player(11.3 per week), sits third in receiving(1,058 yards) and sits second behind only Antonio Brown with 10 touchdowns on the season. He is big, fast, runs great routes and even when Winston scrambles it is Evans who he always looks for to get open. He is always a threat to score multiple touchdowns as he is heavily targeted in the redzone and is also capable of the home run play. Cameron Brate has seen his salary inch its way out of the value range but he remains a nice tournament option catching a touchdown in two of his last four games and has seen five or more targets in five of his last six games.

 

 

 

New York Giants
QB - Eli Manning
Options - Odell Beckham Jr.
Secondary Option - Sterling Shepard

This stack is much more suited for DraftKings where Eli and OBJ come at a much better value. Even with Julio Jones banged up, Beckham comes at a $500 discount as the fourth ranked WR this week. There is some risk stacking the Giants as this matchup is the second of the year for these division rivals which usually favors the defense but that doesn't mean the game should be avoided. There are a ton of reasons to jump on board the Giants this week. First of all, the Cowboys open as 3.5 point road favorites which should force Eli and the offense to turn to the passing game more than usual as they should be trailing in the second half. Another reason the Giants will most likely lean on the passing game is the Cowboys have been stout defensively against the run(8th on Player Lab) but have struggled against the pass(24th on Player Lab) and have allowed the fourth most passing yards per game(276.3). With Eli's extremely low salary on DraftKings ($5,500) you can easily stack him with OBJ and another elite wideout or running back. Sterling Shepard makes an interesting tournament option as there is no consistency with yardage but upside as he is very touchdown dependent. He has recorded 50 yards or less in every game since Week 3 but has made it to the endzone in four of his last five games.

 

 

 

 

 

Green Bay Packers
QB - Aaron Rodgers
Elite Option - Jordy Nelson
Secondary Option - Davante Adams

I will start off by saying this is not a safe stack and should not be considered for cash games. There now that we got the details out of the way let's take a look at this tremendous opportunity to cash in this week. The combination of the Seahawks 8th ranked Defense vs. the Pass, weather concerns and Aaron Rodgers gimpy hamstring will all but guarantee rock bottom ownership this week. Even with his lowest fantasy output since Week 6, Rodgers still threw two touchdowns. He has now recorded multiple touchdowns in five straight and seven of his last nine games. Looking at the Player Lab he was the only quarterback to show up with the above filters. Touchdowns are king for fantasy and you quickly notice the Packers rely on Passing for 85% of their overall touchdowns which leads the league. Rodgers 28 touchdown passes in 2016 rank second to only Drew Brees 29 which by surprise also puts Jordy Nelson in elite company sitting second in receiving touchdowns with 10. Jordy owns the target share in Green Bay and has seen double digit targets in four of his last five games. You just can't find that upside on every team. Good matchup or not the upside is undeniable and when the Packers score three touchdowns through the air you will quickly leap frog a ton of people on the leaderboards. It is 100% worth the investment in tournaments.

 

 

 

 

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