Weekly NFL Stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel - Week 16

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Week 16 NFL Stacks

Santa came early this year as we are gifted with a big 12 game slate on Christmas Eve(Saturday) with one afternoon and one primetime game on Christmas Day. With just two divisions clinched(Patriots in AFC East & Seahawks in NFC West) there is still a lot on the line with two weeks to play. This is great news for fantasy as we won't have to worry about resting players. This adds to the safety of playing daily fantasy football at the end of the season. For the most part, we know players roles and most teams gameplans. I say most teams as there are a few where I still scratch my head and wonder why. Yes, I am talking about you Minnesota Vikings. I will save that rant for another time and place.

Before we dig into this week's top stacks, I always like to take a look back at what worked and this week specifically.... what didn't. After reviewing my failing grades below I have come to the conclusion that game flow and weather played a huge role in the QB/WR stacks last week. I am not going to tweak my process on the Player Lab significantly based off the results of one week but rather make small adjustments based on the data from an entire season. Let's take a look.

 

Green Bay Packers - In freezing cold temperatures, the Packers pulled out a huge win on the back of their wide receiver turned running back Ty Montgomery who rushed for 162 yards and two touchdowns on just 16 carries. Overall, the Packers rushed for a total of 226 yards and three touchdowns which limited Aaron Rodgers to 252 yards through the air with no touchdowns. It's too bad he couldn't have picked up a few more yards and a touchdown or two as the ownership(3% on DraftKings) presented a huge opportunity. The stack wasn't all negative as Jordy Nelson racked up 124 yards catching seven balls with a team-high 10 targets. He has now received double-digit targets in five of the Packers last seven games. GRADE D

 

Buffalo Bills - Another frustrating game from a stacking perspective as the Bills literally ran all over the Browns on Sunday. The MVP of the game was running back LeSean McCoy who rushed 19 times for 153 yards and added two scores. As a team the Bills ended up with 280 yards rushing. Tyrod Taylor was not bad by any means but just didn't have the volume in the passing game to hit his value. He finished with 174 yards and a touchdown on just 24 attempts. I really try to find stacks that are off the board a bit each week and with that comes risk. Sometimes it pays off and sometimes....well it doesn't. GRADE F

 

Oakland Raiders - To cap off the disappointing Week 15 stacks I present to you the Oakland Raiders. Unfortunately, this game fell victim to a defensive battle which most often happens in the second game of a divisional series. Derek Carr only attempted 30 passes the game, completing just 19 for 213 yards and a touchdown. The one thing that did work out was Michael Crabtree who was projected to have the better game with Casey Hayward covering Cooper. This is exactly how it worked out as Cooper was nonexistent catching just one ball on three targets while Crabtree caught six of his team-high eight targets for 60 yards and a touchdown. GRADE D-

Seriously that was hard to go through. Like going through a failed test in high school with your parents. But enough about last week. Let's move on to Week 16.

I will once again be looking closely at the Player Lab this week to help break down the top matchups and stacking options for tournaments.  If you are looking more individual player breakdowns by position go check out the Week 16 Picks Article.

 

 

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
QB - Jameis Winston
Elite Option - Mike Evans
Secondary Option - Cameron Brate

Most filter combinations I used produced three or more options but I was determined to narrow it down to a single quarterback this week. I finally went back to the well with four of my favorites and got down to Jameis Winston. The filters are a little chalky as we are always targeting high totals and teams who rely on passing but the result is most definitely not going to be chalk this week. Let me explain. Coming off a week where almost every winning lineup across the industry had one of, or a combination of Drew Brees and Brandin Cooks we can expect high ownership on the Saints at home. Recency bias is a real thing. This is precisely why Brees/Cooks were so low owned last week. Well, the same goes for Winston as he has not thrown for 300 or more yards or recorded 20+ fantasy points in four straight weeks. He also gets the better matchup in the game as the Saints rank 29th in Defense vs. the Pass on the Player Lab. Recency bias won't be the only thing that affects Mike Evans this week as he is the most expensive wide receiver option on both sites. Don't let a few bad results cloud what has been a great season for the passing game that ranks 10th overall when looking at DVOA and 16th in yards per game.

 

 

 

Indianapolis Colts vs. Oakland Raiders
QB - Andrew Luck
Elite Option - T.Y. Hilton
Secondary Option - Donte Moncrief

Simply remove the "Defense vs. the Pass" filter from the original build and we have ourselves another contrarian option for Week 16. Many people will see the blowout vs. the Vikings and sub 20 fantasy point performance from Luck and shy away. If that isn't enough, the Raiders rank in the top half of the league against the pass(14th) with two corners ranking inside the Top 25 when you look at Pro Football Focus cornerback rankings. While that all looks terrifying at first glance I still think there is a ton of upside for the Colts in this matchup. Like Doug mentioned in the Main Picks Article, the Raiders have allowed a whopping 7.8 yards per attempt and are one of only nine teams to allow a passing play of 75 yards or more. The thing about Andrew Luck is that he has 30+ fantasy point upside and has thrown multiple touchdowns in four straight and six of his last eight games played. Not only does he have the NFL's second-leading receiver T.Y. Hilton at his disposal, but is also likely to get, touchdown monster, Donte Moncrief back this week. Before getting hurt in week 14 vs. the Texans, Moncrief had scored in five straight games. Embrace the risk and reap the rewards if the Colts go off on the Raiders in the black hole.

 

 

 

 

Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers
QB - Matt Ryan
Elite Option - Julio Jones
Value Option - Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel

Looking at the Player Lab for wide receivers I narrowed the field by looking at three key filters. A high scoring game with a receiver projected for five or more receptions who is also been averaging over 15 yards per catch this season. As expected it narrowed the field down to three big play options. We already discussed T.Y. Hilton and the Colts and talked about the contrarian choice in the Saints/Bucs game. That leaves us with the NFL's leader in yards Julio Jones who is set to return from injury this week. He may not be at 100% health but will get a matchup vs. the Panthers who he torched earlier this year becoming one of only six receivers in history to record a 300+ yard receiving game. With the Q tag beside his high salary, he will likely come with low ownership this week and he makes perfect sense as there are enough value plays at other positions to make him and Matt Ryan work in your lineups. The Panthers have been better against the pass recently pushing their Player Lab ranking up to 17th but they have still surrendered a league-worst 274.8 yards per game. Load up on the Falcons this week.

 

 

 

Houston Texans
QB - Tom Savage
Elite Option - DeAndre Hopkins

If you have drank enough Egg Nog to the point where your family doesn't seem quite as crazy as before, this stack should be right up your alley. Not even once did I ever think I would be talking about Tom Savage being a viable fantasy option but if you watched the game last week you understand why he is mentioned here. He took over for Brock Osweiler last week and provided a much-needed spark for the Texans offense and rejuvenated a forgotten DeAndre Hopkins who seen a crazy game-high 17 targets. Remember when Hopkins was in the elite tier in wide receiver salaries? Not so much anymore as he is just $5,200 on DraftKings and $6,600 on FanDuel. Combine that with Savage's near minimum price across the industry and it makes it very easy to load up at other positions and capitalize on the upside.

 

 

 

 

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