Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 1/3/17

Woof, this slate. My goodness. Let me put it this way: it's an 8 game slate and eight of the nine slowest teams in the NBA are playing. That means half of the teams here play at plodding paces which you never want to target.   Those squads are the Grizzlies, Jazz, Heat, Mavericks, Spurs, Pistons, Heat and Timberwolves. So have fun, it's going to be slow-motion on the court tonight.

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Point Guards

T.J. McConnell FD - $4600 DK - $4300
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 27 DK - 28.92
It doesn’t look like Sergio Rodriguez is going to play on Tuesday, making TJ basically a must play in DFS. He won’t be anywhere close to under the radar considering he filled this slot last game, played 36 minutes and put up a 17/8/2 line. That more than hits value and he’d be in line for similar run with the Sixers without really anyone else who can even approximate the point guard position. The prices crept up a bit after his game on Friday, but not enough to take him out of consideration here. He’ll be a chalk play on both sites and is a particular deal on DraftKings.

Jeff Teague FD - $7900 DK - $7100
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 40.2 DK - 42.65
It hasn’t happened over night necessarily, but since Monta Ellis went down injured a few weeks ago, we’ve seen the slow emergence of Teague as a legit fantasy guy thanks to both a decent usage rate and increased assist opportunities. He’s the second highest usage starter on the Pacers behind Paul George in the last month or so and is averaging the most fantasy points per minute on the squad in that time period. I don’t love the matchup against a very slow Detroit squad, but this slate is full of trap matchups with the Jazz and Grizz (among others) also playing. The Pistons are actually below average in defending the point guard position this season and allowing worse than league average production that position across the fantasy line.

Darren Collison FD - $4100 DK - $4500
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 23.43 DK - 25.06
Do you trust the 39 minutes he played against the Grizz as something like the new reality with his run? Me neither, but honestly at these prices he just needs to play in the low 30’s to be in consideration even on the cash game side of things. He's greatly helped in terms of value if Ty Lawson were to sit out with the face injury. The Kings really lack anything in the way of scorers with Rudy Gay out and the latter looks doubtful for this contest. We’ve been waiting for Collison to put up more shots in the offense and he got 16 looks last time against a stout Memphis D. I’m almost willing to gamble on his price point considering the upside if he can just stick on the court. Last game no other King took more than 8 shots in the game while Collison and Boogie put up 16 and 18 respectively. Let’s hope that’s how Sacramento starts rolling now.

Strongly consider Isaiah Thomas against the Jazz

Shooting Guards

Josh Richardson FD - $5900 DK - $6000
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 25.5 DK - 27.35
Wayne Ellington FD - $4100 DK - $4100
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 20.45 DK - 22.07
Rodney McGruder FD - $3500 DK - $3000
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 22.37 DK - 24.16
This is the "All Caveat Club" for shooting guard tonight. Look, shooting guard on FanDuel is about as bad a group as you're likely to see on a slate of this size, but that's what comes from every slow/ defensively-minded squad playing tonight. The caveats for these guys are that we almost have to see Dragic AND Waiters out for the Heat in order to really feel comfortable running a combination out there in cash games. If god-forbid both of those guys play then this whole group likely is dusted off in terms of value. If one of them plays then we are going to need to see a starting lineup in order to feel comfortable. I feel the best about Richardson because he's versatile switching at minimum between the 2 and 3 (sometimes the 4) but the price is up on him. Shooting guard is likely where you'll need to grin and bear it tonight but we'd be helped with another night of the short-handed Heat.

Garrett Temple FD - $4200 DK - $3600
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 20.77 DK - 22.25
He's also part of the caveat club in that I'd feel more comfortable with the minutes if Ty Lawson were to sit and the Kings' backcourt looked super thin. Temple has played backup point guard for this squad and he's seen solid minutes because he can play multiple positions. That being said, this guy is a Dante Cunningham All Star in that major minutes don't necessarily mean huge upside. That's what happens sometimes when you play on a team with a guy like Boogie who commands so much of the fantasy production. But if the Kings are still short-handed without Lawson and Gay then it stands to reason Temple sees plenty of minutes.

Hate yourself a little? Think about Demar Derozan against the Spurs

Small Forwards

T.J. Warren FD - $4900 DK - $5000
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 25.53 DK - 26.66
He finally got back in the starting lineup last night and with it came the minutes he'd been seeing earlier in the year. This is what we'd been waiting for with Warren who since coming back fro minjury had been relegated to a bench role meaning more variability around his minutes. But that appears to have stabilized last night. It's the second night of a back-to-back and Early Watson isn't exactly Mr. Decisive when it comes to his rotations. But Warren is a high usage guy in this offense when he's running with the first team and early in the season he led this team in shots per game. We could be buying very low here if he's back to a solid mid 30's minutes guy.

Robert Covington FD - $5100 DK - $5200
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 24.14 DK - 26.79
Foul trouble sniped off some of his minutes last game against the Nuggets but he'd been seeing steady run in the low-to-mid 30's on the regular. Do some of his recent game logs look totally and completely brutal? For sure, but a big part of that's been his struggle from behind the arc and I see that as run bad to the extreme. He's coming on the cheaper side (assuming the minutes are solid) and has upside if the three ball's falling. Covington also provides a little safety on his floor by chipping in with the defensive stats. He's averaging more than a block and steal per game in the short term and can get on the glass.

Instead of trying to pick another "safe" small forward to play on this slate. I'm going to reel off a few different guys you can consider though I'm shaky on their point-per-dollar upside. Marcus Morris should see plenty of minutes tonight because they'll want to stick him on Paul George. Morris is a guy coming cheap but will go long stretches of you wondering if he's even on the court. Paul George is also in consideration if you think he's in that 20 shot per game volume territory he's seen in the short term, but it isn't a great matchup. Jae Crowder's coming cheap because he's playing the Jazz and becomes interesting because the sites are correcting more for matchup.

 

Power Forwards

Nikola Jokic FD - $7200 DK - $6900
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 34.71 DK - 36.45
The foul trouble is a very real and well-documented thing for the big guy which makes him incredibly risky going against Boogie Cousins. But no other power forward (and you need to play two on FanDuel) has anywhere close to his upside. He's pricey considering there's some chance he sees reduced minutes because of the hacking. But the Nuggets are also very thin in the front court right now with Faried and Arthur both hurting there's incentive to have his offense out there as much as possible. But facing up against Boogie will be an issue.

Tobias Harris FD - $6000 DK - $6200
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 26.32 DK - 28.01
Jon Leuer FD - $4800 DK - $4800
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 24.85 DK - 26.21
Ok, well the good news is both of these guys are in a solid matchup tonight against the Pacers who really don't defend the power forward position well at all (thank you Thad Young). The bad news is though Leuer's moved into the starting lineup, Harris is coming off the bench in heavy doses. SVG's been happy to play the hot hand while also staggering the Harris/ Leuer/ Morris versatile big man grouping. It's placed these guys somewhere in the middle of value and leaves us guessing at their minutes. But again, the Pacers are a good matchup and power forward is once again a thin position. Last game Harris came off the bench to play 35 minutes while putting up a 17/7 line. Leuer played poorly, but I see that as more of an outlier. We are in pick you poison territory at small forward and the decisions on these guys is just another example.

James Johnson FD - $5400 DK - $5500
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 27.99 DK - 29.93
Justice Winslow and Hassan Whiteside aren’t going to play in this one though Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters could both be back tonight. If those two both played I’d be a little less bullish on Johnson repeating his performance from last game when the Heat were incredibly short-handed. He put up a 20/7/3 line thanks in large part to shooting 4/5 from three. But the big story was the minutes in the mid 30’s. Again, if Dragic and Waiters are back then this might be a little riskier. But Johnson is a versatile player and has seen run off the bench in the right situations. Plus Phoenix is a big pace up situation for the Heat.

Strongly consider Thad Young

 

Centers

Joel Embiid FD - $7200 DK - $7500
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 41.65 DK - 43.78
Jahlil Okafor FD - $4600 DK - $4500
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 24.37 DK - 25.5
For their respective price points, I think both of these guys are in play tonight against the Timberwolves. Now, it’s worth mentioning that when they are both in the starting lineup together (or on the court together at all) both of their respective usage rates go down. The Sixers do work hard to stagger the minutes but they have shared 70 minutes of court time this season and are likely to see that number continue trending upwards per game as the minutes’ caps are slowly (I believe) lifted. But you are still getting them at values against a T-Wolves teams struggling to keep PF/C types from scoring. They are allowing about 5% more scoring than league average to that player profile. It’s always a little weird getting money in on guys who have a hard cap on court time, but that’s also keeping their prices down in the short term.

DeMarcus Cousins FD - $11200 DK - $11400
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 49.64 DK - 52.46
There aren't many high-priced guys tonight with Boogie sitting at $11,200 on FanDuel and the next highest guy (John Wall) coming $1600 below him. That's a huge gap and one we'll have to consider when filling out lineups. But no other player has anywhere close to Boogie's floor here and if there exists just a modicum of savings elsewhere you'll likely find yourself paying up for the guy. He's an elite fantasy play in every sense of the word and Denver's only league average at keeping PF/C types from scoring. They're decent on the glass, but Jokic could easily get in foul trouble early in this one. Cousins is nearly locked into 20 field goal attempts per game and should see even more if the Kings are still playing without Rudy Gay and Lawson.

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