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Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

01/19/2017
Austyn Varney

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 1/19/16

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Point Guard

Austin RiversAustin Rivers FD - $5600 DK - $5200
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 25.88 DK - 27.64
Raymond FeltonRaymond Felton FD - $5500 DK - $4800
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 24.43 DK - 26.18

Chris Paul will miss 6 or so weeks with a finger injury, and both of these guys are going to have to step up. Doc trusts Felton to run the point, and he should see around 25 minutes per night. Austin Rivers is the guy I am mostly interested in. The upside is obvious, and he has shown it before. The Timberwolves have been rather average against point guards, and Ricky Rubio is no crazy man to man defender. I think both of these guys will be able to produce at least 1 FP per minute. Rivers should get plenty of opportunity here, and this could be the door he needed to prove himself in the league. He has seen a huge bump in both minutes and production with CP3 out this year, and we will see a gradual price increase as Rivers establishes himself. This Chris Paul injury opens up a lot, and we will be looking at multiple guys to take advantage. Rivers is my favorite of the two, and Felton is a guy I like in cash games.

Kyrie IrvingKyrie Irving FD - $8400 DK - $8600
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 39.65 DK - 42.38

This is a game I will look to target a lot tonight, and especially from the Cavaliers side. The big 3 have a great match up, and the game should stay pretty competitive. Eric Bledsoe is a good defender, but the Suns play fast and lack defensive efficiency. Irving has played well against the Suns, finishing with 27, 2 and 7 only a month ago. Irving is a guy who is very up and down, which makes him a tournament play by nature. I will look to target some other Cavs in cash games, and stick to tournaments with Irving. You can also look into stacking this game, as the 2 tams have concentrated scoring, and can do a lot of it.

Eric BledsoeEric Bledsoe FD - $8000 DK - $7700
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 41.58 DK - 44.44

Looking right at the other side of the scorers table, we have Eric Bledsoe> Bledsoe will be covering Kyrie, and receiving his defense in return. Irving is known as a below average defender, and Bledsoe knows. I predict a ton of minutes and usage for Bledsoe tonight, tho is going to have to carry the team on his back. He finished with almost 50 fantasy points last time against the Cavs, and will look to hit that 50 point threshold today. I am a fan of Bledsoe in both cash games and tournaments, and he offers much more safety than Kyrie Irving. Bledsoe has the best match up on the team, and has no problem taking over as the main scorer.If I had to choose between Irving and Bledsoe, I will take Bledsoe. I think both guys will carry elevated price tags, and the ownership will come with it as well.

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Shooting Guard

Brad BealBrad Beal FD - $7200 DK - $7000
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 34.83 DK - 37.17

Shooting guard is a spot tonight where the pickings are most slim. You have Beal, Booker and LaVine in the expensive range. Beal is by far my favorite of the bunch, and makes for a fantastic play in all formats. Beal is a scorer, and he is a really good one at that. You can throw DVP out the window, as the Knicks have been throwing some mew guys in the lineup, who are not too great at defense. If Ron Baker does start again, I expect Beal to score on him early and often. Beal is always solid when healthy, and will very rarely see a game under 30 fantasy points. With shooting guard being so ugly, I will have a hard time not having a lot of Brad Beal in both cash and tourneys.

Will BartonWill Barton FD - $5300 DK - $6100
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 28.47 DK - 30.56

With both Gary Harris and Wilson sidelined for this game, Will Barton is going to get huge run. The Spurs do have a great team defense, but you can score on them and don't have anyone dominant to cover Barton. Kawhi Leonard will be on Gallinari, and I will be off of him because of that. Barton is still pretty cheap, too, when you consider what his upside really is. He is a guy I would consider playing in both formats, though you are not completely comfortable with him in cash. All in all, Barton is a high upside, high volatile player at a position that lacks upside. Barton has it for you, and you almost have to get some exposure in tournaments. Dion Waiters is the ultimate GPP swerve off of Barton, as nobody will be on him.

Jamal CrawfordJamal Crawford FD - $3500 DK - $4200
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 21 DK - 22.78
J.J. RedickJ.J. Redick FD - $5200 DK - $5300
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 24.84 DK - 27.25

Like I said, the Chris Paul injury is going to open up a lot of minutes, usage and shots. LaVine has not been a god defender this season, and both of these guys will be able to find open shots on the perimeter. I like Redick more in cash games, as he has been much more consistent than Crawford, and the minutes are a guarantee. Jamal Crawford is a bit more of a tournament play, but the upside is definitely there. Crawford is much cheaper on both sites, but rightfully so. You can count on both of these guys to get minutes, and both of them will shoot when on the court. They may not be too fun to play, but should get it done.

Small Forward

LeBron JamesLeBron James FD - $10500 DK - $10800
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 48.92 DK - 51.9

These 2 teams did face off a few weeks ago, and the Cavs won a close game. LeBron scored 28, to go along with 8 rebounds and 4 assists. The Suns have nobody to guard him, and don't play much defense as a team. P.J. Tucker and T.J. Warren will both see James, and neither of them have the tools to slow him down. James has been coasting a little bit as of late, and I think this is the type of game that could snap him out of the funk. LeBron should see plenty  of minutes, as this is the only they game they play in a 4 day stretch. I am betting on this game staying close tonight, which would keep LeBron in the game down the stretch.Without much else at small forward, I will have a lot of LeBron exposure in both cash games and tournaments.

Andrew WigginsAndrew Wiggins FD - $6800 DK - $6300
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 32.14 DK - 34.03

The Clippers mainly struggle against 1 position, and that is small forward. They rank 26th against the small forward position, and give up the 3rd most real life points. With Chris Paul and Blake Griffin out, this game should remain close. Wiggins will see a lot of Jamal Crawford and J.J. Redick, who are both way undersized. Wiggins will be able to use his strength and size to get in the paint, and he is a fantastic finisher once he gets there. Wiggins is usually only a tournament option, but I like him in both cash games and tournaments tonight. He has a floor around 28, and a ceiling over 37. Small forward doesn't have too much to love, so there isn't much of an opportunity cost to be worried about.

Carmelo AnthonyCarmelo Anthony FD - $7700 DK - $7900
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 38.58 DK - 40.82
Mindaugas KuzminskasMindaugas Kuzminskas FD - $3900 DK - $4500
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 24.69 DK - 26.91

These guys are also contingent on the status of Kristaps Porzingis. If he does play, I will end up with Melo in a couple tournaments. If he is out, all systems go. Kuzminskas will likely draw the start again, and he has been very productive when on the court. He didn't see many minutes in the 2nd half last night, but that should turn around here. The Wizards play extremely fast and this is a match up that both guys can excel in. Melo will have to have one of his big games if the Knicks want to stay in the game, and I expect him to be up for the challenge. If his shot is falling, there are few players in the NBA who have a smoother jumper. All in all, make sure Porzingis is out, and then take a look at who gets into the starting lineup.

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Power Forward

Kevin LoveKevin Love FD - $8300 DK - $7800
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 39.73 DK - 42.53

Love comes in as my top PF on the slate, and will be a staple in my cash games. The Suns struggle mightily against PF's, ranking 2nd to last in the NBA in terms of fantasy points allowed. Love has been a big part of the Cavs offense this season, and has been extremely safe as well. He is fully expected to play in this game, and should see at least 32 minutes. Both Chriss and Len will see time on Love, and neither will be able to stay with him. You can lock in a double double here, and the upside for much more is there. Love had 40 fantasy points against the Suns last time out, and that is what I see his floor as tonight. You can play him in all formats, and as long as he plays, will be my highest owned PF.

Markieff MorrisMarkieff Morris FD - $6100 DK - $6100
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 27.65 DK - 29.65

'Kieff has been frustrating all season long, constantly underwhelming and missing value. However, things have seemed to change. Morris is starting to play consistent, productive, hard nose basketball. With Porzingis likely missing this game, you will see a combo of Carmelo Anthony and Kyle O'Quinn covering Morris. Both have big disadvantages, and both are made very clear. Anthony is way too small, and Kyle O'Quinn is a center who has no chance of staying with Markieff. Morris has been over 30 in 5 of the last 6, and over 36 3 times.The Knicks ay not have horrible defensive numbers, but they do lack an interior presence with both Porzingis and Noah on the shelf. Morris could be a match up nightmare for the Knicks, and could end up having a huge game.

Kenneth FariedKenneth Faried FD - $5600 DK - $5200
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 28.88 DK - 30.18

The Spurs aren't that great down low either. Pau Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge are the 2 main reasons why, as they are both older and not on the same athletic playing field as a guy like Kenneth Faried. They then throw in David Lee and Dewayne Dedmon, who are even less athletic than the starters.  Faried lives off of energy, and produces based on instincts. He has played well lately, and I will continue to ride him as long as he stays in the starting lineup. He is a guy who gets a ton of offensive boards, and is one of the better big men in the league at running in transition. For whatever reason, Faried is just starting to get worked as one of the better players on the team. Nikola Jokic is also currently questionable, so even more minutes could become up for grabs. Take advantage of the low price ,and get exposure.

Center

Marcin GortatMarcin Gortat FD - $5800 DK - $5800
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 30.58 DK - 32.03
Kyle O'QuinnKyle O'Quinn FD - $4900 DK - $4800
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 28.55 DK - 30.05

First of all, this is assuming Joakim Noah and Kristaps Porzingis both sit out. If that happens like expected, you have to love both of these guys. as for Gortat, he is a polished big man that is going to have no defense played on him. Kyle O'Quinn is also a fantastic play, as he has always been more of an offensive player. Gortat is the safer play of the two, and you can basically lock him in for 15 points and 12 rebounds. Outside of O'Quinn, the Knicks will toss Guillermo Hernangomez down low, who stands no chance again Gortat. Gortat hasn't been an upside guy lately, which is why I will have my exposure limited to cash games. O'Quinn is going to be a guy I look at in tournaments, and the upside is definitely there at the price. O'Quinn is a guy who always produces when given the opportunity, which gives me much more confidence in a cheap guy than usual.

Tristan ThompsonTristan Thompson FD - $4900 DK - $4100
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 23.28 DK - 24.32

Thompson isn't a guy I will have a ton of exposure too, but will get a little bit of him in some tournaments and cash games that need some salary relief. The Suns struggle against big men, ,and Thompson is one that can certainly take advantage. He is a master of the boards, and especially the offensive side. Tyson Chandler can get some boards himself, but will let his opponent get a fair share as well. I definitely do prefer O'Quinn and Gortat, but Thompson makes a pretty interesting option. As an note, I will likely limit my cash games to 2 Cavs, which will likely end up as James and Love.

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image sources

  • Kyrie_Irving_2015: By Erik Drost from United States (Kyrie Irving) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

7 Visitor Comments

  1. After last night, I will never roster O’Quinn again.

  2. That was a matchup issue with O’Quinn. There were no big, slow bodies to matchup against. Coach was smart. Knicks go the win. Don’t roster him tonight, I plan to.

  3. Hello.. Actually need help on a issue. Finally won a decent amount last week on draftkings. I had to fill out a w-9 to make a withdrawal & chose 25% so my taxes would be handled up front. So I gave a nice sum of money towards taxes. Then won a few days later and tried to deposit that amount as well. This time was under $600, but still kept the 25% withdrawal holding. I thought each would be an individual transaction. Been in communication with draftkings for 3 days because I’m now trying to take the 25% withholding fee off and just decided to have nothing come out on my withdrawals and pay all at once, next tax season. Well, not sure how to do a new w-9 form so I can change the settings. Draftkings cannot wipe away, because they said they cannot edit my tax info. How can I do another form? To where I can withdraw money from my account and 25% of my money not be withheld every time? Please help if you have any input. Thanks

    • I would withdraw all the money and open another account with Draftkings. Not sure if that would help, but I think it would be worth a shot.

  4. You may want to run this question on rotogrinders, there are guys there who have experience on this subject

  5. Had KOQ and Olynyk last night and still managed to cash in a DK OR GPP. Westy/Durant seventy burgers saved me.

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