Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings & FantasyAces  - Farmers Insurance Open

DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FantasyAces. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games(head to heads/double ups) as well as upside plays for tournaments.

If you have any questions for Chris prior to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).

**If you are looking for a recap of last week's tournament head over to my blog(JagerBombs Sports Blog) where I take a look at the ownership breakdown and DraftKings points to try and find some trends to exploit moving forward in the DFS golf season.**

Farmers Insurance Open

Once again this week we have a multi-course rotation. Golfers will play one round on each of Torrey Pines North and South course before the cut of 70 and ties following the first 36 holes. The South course will be used for each of the final two rounds of the tournament. Here is a look at their yardages:

Torrey Pines Golf Club (South Course)

Par 72 - 7,569 Yards

Torrey Pines Golf Club (North Course)

Par 72 - 6,874 Yards

 

For a terrific hole by hole breakdown of both courses check out this LINK from the PGA Tour website. Focusing on the South Course,  where three of the four rounds will be played, you will see that it is an absolute beast closing in on 7,600 yards. Two of the Par 3's come in over 22o yards and can play as long as 240 while six of the 10 Par 4's come in over 250 yards. This will put a ton of emphasis on long iron accuracy if players are to score birdies this week. The average score at this event over the last five years has been around -11 which is a bit skewed from last seasons -6 winning score of Brandt Snedeker. The weather was absolutely nasty with only Sneds shooting under par in the final round. If you missed it, check it out below as it was one of the top rounds of the entire season. Unreal!

Sorry about that. I got a little sidetracked on the YouTube again.

I went back and looked at the results from the last four years and each players season-ending stats to get a feel for what is going to be the most important stats. What I found was that Birdie or Better % was one of the Top 3 correlated stats in three of the four years while Par 5 Scoring was present in two years. It makes sense as I mentioned above the length of the Par 4's and 3's where Par will be a great score.

The fairways are very tough to hit here which can mean two things in my opinion. With most of the field missing fairway's it gives an advantage to the bombers who will be using a club or two less on their approach shots. On the flip side, it allows those extreme accuracy players, both off the tee and from long approach distances, to compete here and get their names on the leaderboard. I will be weighing more of a SG: Off the Tee/Total Driving Approach this week with a slight lean to the bombers.

The greens here are Poa Annua and to get a feel for players who do well on this type of green take a look at the Golf Betting System. They have an excellent tool for weighing stats and other factors and I have really been liking the breakdown for different green make ups. You can also follow them on Twitter(@GolfBetting).

As always, I will be weighing current form very high followed by course history. Let's dig in and take a look at my favorite plays for this week.
High End Targets ($9,000+)

Dustin Johnson
World Golf Ranking  (3rd)
Vegas Odds (9/1)
Draftkings ($11,100)
FantasyAces ($6,100)

A case can definitely be made for all three players in the $11K range this week and I will start by making one for Johnson. He is the cheaper of the three on DraftKings, even if only a few hundred dollars, and comes in with some excellent 2017 form. It started at the SBS Tournament of Champions where he recorded three rounds under 70 and finished with a T6. This past weekend he headed to Abu Dhabi for the HSBC Championship and after a slow day one where he admitted to being tired he bounced back with rounds of 68-64-68 to finish one stroke behind Tommy Fleetwood who won the hardware. looking at the cheatsheet, all three players rank high in Par 5 Scoring and BoB% but Dj has a distinct advantage in a few key areas. He not only leads the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, he leads by just over a half stroke to the second highest in the top tier(John Rahm). Dj also ranks inside the Top 25 in both GIR from 175-200 and 200+ yards. The only thing that holds me back from going 100% allin on him is the fact he is coming back across the ocean and a slow start here might be a bit harder to make up. Either way he can make upDK points in a hurry with his Tee to Green and now very consistent putting game.

 

 

Jason Day
World Golf Ranking (1st)
Vegas Odds (9/1)
Draftkings ($11,400)
FantasyAces ($6,100)

He left his back injuries of 2016 behind him with a 13 under, T12 at the SBS Tournament of Champions at the beginning of January. He only recorded one round under 70 in that tournament but shot a cool 12 under on the Par 5's with one eagle. It's a great sign coming into Torrey Pines where he has experienced a ton of success including a win two years ago. He missed the cut here last year but went into the tourney battling the flu but toughed it out for the first two days. As you would suspect, he is statistically elite in many areas including SG: Putting(1.130) and Scoring Average(69.31) where he leads the field. I will be constructing a ton of tournament lineups where I will start with Jason Day and then duplicate that lineup with Dustin Jonson in his place. With the amount of value in the sub $7K range this week I will also have some exposure to the Day/DJ stack which comes with a ton of DK scoring upside.

 

 

Shane Lowry
World Golf Ranking (50th)
Vegas Odds (66/1)
Draftkings ($9,000)
FantasyAces ($4,750)

From the top of the tier to the bottom with Lowry. With the very weird salary structure this week you can easily pair him with one of the guys above and still have a ton of upside. He comes with a ton of holes when looking at the stats which could drive some people away but he hits on one key stat I am looking for this week. Strokes Gained : Off the Tee(18th in the field)/ Total Driving(5th). It is that type of game that has given him a 13th and 7th place finish the last two years when the final score has dipped below the 10 under mark. He was very inconsistent in his last outing on the PGA Tour at the HSBC Champions where he sandwiched a 68-65 in between an opening round of 74 and a final round of 77 for T23 finish. For this reason I will only consider him in GPP's.

 

 

Brandt Snedeker
World Golf Ranking (28th)
Vegas Odds (25/1)
Draftkings ($9,500)
FantasyAces ($5,650)

I, for the most part, weigh current form much higher than course history throughout the season. Sneds will be an exception to the rule this week as he returns as the reigning champion with his incredible final round in the gale force winds last year. I won't get too much into it as I drooled about it above. Not only did he have success last year, but he has made eight of 10 cuts here in his career with two wins(2016 &  2012) and six Top 10 finishes. Those that will weigh the form higher might avoid him this week as he is coming off a missed cut last week which could open up some excellent GPP value. I mentioned the greens here at Torrey Pines being Poa Annua and looking at the Golf Predictor model weighing only "Poa Positive" it is Snedeker who shows up at the top. Look for a bounce back this week.

 

 

 

Mid Tier Targets ($7,000 - $8,900)

Gary Woodland
World Golf Ranking (41st)
Vegas Odds (41/1)
Draftkings ($8,600)
FantasyAces ($5,200)

When prices came out early this week I was sure there was a mistake when I see Woodland in the mid $8K range. I mean he has played here seven times, making every cut including a T18 last year and T10 in 2014. Then looking at my model this week he ranks #3 overall with his awesome form and stats. He finished T6 at the Sony Open after a runner up finish at the OHL Classic in November. Statistically, he is exactly the mold I am looking for with Top 10 ranks in SG: TOT, SG:APP, Ball Striking, GIR 175-200, and Top 20 rankings in key stats like Par 5 scoring, SG: OTT, Driv Dist, GIR and Bogey Avoidance. Sign me up in all formats this week!

 

 

Brendan Steele
World Golf Ranking (56th)
Vegas Odds (50/1)
Draftkings ($8,000)
FantasyAces ($5,000)

In a stronger field, Steele has seen a huge $1,300 price drop coming off back to back T6 finishes. Do you smell the value? I sure do. He also had a fantastic fall/wrap-around portion of the season with a T31 at the Shriners, T26 at the CIMB Classic and his big breakthrough win at the Safeway Open. He absolutely crushes the Par 5's ranking 7th in the field thanks to a combined -44 score in his first five tournaments. Looking at his Strokes Gained stats, He ranks Top 20 in all except SG: ATG and putting. For you course history guys he has made the cut in four straight years with finishes of T49, T45, T28, T27 which he could easily top this year as he comes in with, by far, the best form of his career.

 

 

Tony Finau
World Golf Ranking (81st)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
Draftkings ($7,700)
FantasyAces ($4,900)

I can already tell I will be running 50+ lineups this week as I keep adding more and more players to the article.  I can't help it. I love Torrey Pines, Tiger Woods is back and the snow is melting in Saskatchewan in mid-January. Things are good people! Back to the pick.

Finau is another guy who really stands out in this mid-range as he checks almost every box. After an average start to the fall season(T26, T33, T41, CUT) he rebounded with a T9 at the SBS Tournament of Champions and a T20 at the Sony Open two weeks ago. He fits the mold of the bomber that I am looking for in these soft conditions on an extremely long course and he has finished T18, T24 in his two years here.

 

 

 

Also Consider: Charles Howell III

 

 

 

Low End Target (Min Price - $6,900)

Martin Laird
World Golf Ranking (140th)
Vegas Odds (50/1)
Draftkings ($6,500)
FantasyAces ($4,900)

The sub $7K range is absolutely loaded with players this week(100) so finding value isn't going to be too hard. Laird is my favorite in this range and looking at FanShareSports most tagged list, I am not the only one. He ranks #12 overall in my model and looking at the Vegas odds he is 50/1 which is 23rd in the field while his salary ranks 81st highest. He comes back to Torrey Pines with back to back Top 10 finishes in 2016 and 2015 and has made six of eight cuts in his career. Then you add in his form(T9, T13, T27, T8) this season and you can understand why he is going to be likely the highest owned golfer this week. Separate yourself with the other five slots in your lineup.

 

Kyle Stanley
World Golf Ranking (263rd)
Vegas Odds (175/1)
Draftkings ($6,000)
FantasyAces ($4,500)

I am going right down to the bottom with my final pick of the bottom tier. Believe it or not, he ranks 26th in my initial GPP model this week and it falls mainly on his stats. In the field, he ranks 9th in Driving Accuracy and although he isn't a bomber ranks 7th overall in Total Driving(30th in SG: OTT). Another positive sign is that he ranks 12th in Good Drive %, 18th in GIR, 26th in GIR of 200+ and 26th in Scoring Average. He has played four times this season already with finishes of 7th, CUT, 21st, and 37th. Looking at his course history, he has played here six times making the cut four times including each of the last two years. He is minimum price and combining him with another sub $7K golfer allows you to stack two elite players.

 

 

Also Consider: Robert Garrigus

 

 

 

 

If you have any questions leading up to lineup lock Thursday morning you can reach me in a variety of ways. Leave a Q below in the comment section and I will get you an answer. You can hit me up in the new chatroom here at DFSR(It's crazy busy with NBA/NHL talk so try and private message me for specific PGA Q's. I am also always available on Twitter(@jager_bombs9). Good luck this week!

 

 

 

**Note on Stats - The stats I refer to in this article are from my own spreadsheet/cheatsheet and weigh both 2017 and 2016 stats. If you have any questions about the cheatsheet please contact me on Twitter(@Jager_Boms9).**

 

 

Farmers Insurance Open Update Thread

**Weather Update**

 

**Tee Times**

 

 

 

 

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.