Free Player Lab TrialBasketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 2/16/17
Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NBA optimizer, our NFL Optimizer, and our new NFL player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.
First time with NBA? Be sure to read our free NBA Ebook on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.
Point Guard
John Wall FD - $10400 DK - $10700
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 47.54 DK - 50.89
With only 2 games on this slate, we have to give a long hard look at each and every superstar. Wall and the Wizards will face off with the Pacers tonight, who play very pace-neutral, though they prefer to play fast. Jeff Teague is a very average defender, giving up almost 50 FPPG to PG's since the start of the season. His price has definitely risen, but it's worth it. Wall has consistently been over 45 FP, with a consistent ceiling around 65 or 70. Without many other ways to pay up tonight, Wall is solid in all formats. Vegas has this game sitting at a 217 over/under with a -2.5 line, which suggests everyone will play big minutes. Indiana has played much better at home this year, so I wouldn't worry about the blowout at all here. With the obvious lack of options at PG, Wall will be high owned. However, everything is relative on a 2 game slate, including % owned. Wall has been playing huge minutes, as that's really the only way the Wizards can win. Wall is as safe a bet as you can find at any spot tonight and obviously has immense upside as well. Get some exposure.
Isaiah Thomas FD - $10000 DK - $9300
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 45.93 DK - 48.81
Isaiah Thomas comes in as our second stud PG along with John Wall. They are pretty close for us and you can really go either way. There is an argument for going both, but you will be forced to uncomfortably pay down elsewhere. However, that's a move that could certainly pay off in the long run. Thomas will likely be covered by the likes of Carter-Williams and Jerian grant to start. He will absolutely demolish both of them and likely see Jimmy Butler by the time the 4th quarter rolls around. While Butler is a dominant defender, Thomas has shown his ability to obliterate some of the best on-ball defenders in the league. This is a guy who is 100% unstoppable at times, which is usually every single 4th quarter. While his floor is a bit lower than Wall, his ceiling might be a bit higher. He has shown the ability to go for 50 real-life points and this is a match-up where it could be possible if they keep Jimmy Butler away. Thomas will be very high owned, but don't be the guy who fades him for Terry Rozier. PG isn't a spot to overthink on this slate.
Jeff Teague FD - $7200 DK - $7400
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 33.11 DK - 35.61
There are only 3 real ways to go at PG tonight. I'm sure some people will get cute with a Rondo or Rozier, but it's not necessary. These 3 guys are going to put up nice numbers and you don't want to fade them. Teague comes in as the cheapest of the 3, though he likely comes in around the same % owned. Teague isn't a guy with huge upside, but he has a solid floor and is extremely consistent. John Wall hasn't been great on defense this year, sporting the 11th worst defensive rating in the league. He's still a talented defender, but gets hurt by the extremely fast-paced style the Wizards play at. It forces them to play extra defensive possessions, which typically inflates the opposing PG's numbers. Let's hope that happens once again tonight and Jeff Teague can have a big performance. He is great in all formats, though it will be an interesting approach to roster 2 superstar PG's.
Shooting Guard
Brad Beal FD - $7600 DK - $7100
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 33.24 DK - 35.77
Brad Beal has been shooting extremely well recently, finishing with over 20 real-life points in 7 of his last 8 games. The Pacers have nobody to cover Beal, as Monta Ellis & Glenn Robinson have no chance. Beal has played this team just 2 games ago, where he put up nearly 30 fantasy points. I would expect a better outing in this one. Wall does a good job of getting Beal involved almost every possession and I don't mind rostering them together. Beal's price is pretty fair, needing you around 35 in cash and 40 in tournaments. You also have to consider who you can pivot to. Shooting guard is very ugly and if Wade plays, you don't have too many spots to go. We know Beal is going to produce and won't have to worry about minutes. He has been seeing over 35 minutes on a regular basis and I would expect nothing less here. Beal may be more of a GPP type of player, he is viable for cash games on this type of slate.
Marcus Smart FD - $5800 DK - $5700
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 28.3 DK - 30.46
Marcus Smart went off for nearly 30 in the first half tonight, before slowing down in the 2nd half and finishing with a solid 35 fantasy points. Smart has been incredible filling in for Bradley and they will be forced to continue playing him big minutes. He will be in play once again tonight against the Bulls, who give up a ton of peripherals to guards. Jimmy Butler will be playing the 3, which should permanently keep him away on defense. I expect to see a combo of either Wade and MCW or Rondo and MCW. He should be able to score with ease on all of those guys, as they are not defensive stoppers. Smart still has his price way too low around the industry, only needing about 27 in cash and 32 in tournaments. Smart showed his upside last night, in a match-up worse than this. Smart is a VERY solid option in all formats.
Michael Carter-Williams FD - $4900 DK - $5100
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 26.97 DK - 28.62
First of all, make sure Wade is out. If Wade plays, MCW gets a pretty generous bump down. If he misses like we expect, you can count on MCW playing another 30 minutes and putting up solid numbers. The Celtics are a pretty solid match-up, as they allow the 4th most fantasy points per game to point guards. MCW has been playing PG with Wade out, so make sure you look at those numbers. His price has definitely risen, but is still not to the point where I'm at all scared off. This is a guy who can score, rebound, and pass extremely well, which presents an incredible upside against a team that lacks the ability to stop the ball, or anything else. It will be interesting to see how the ownership %'s play out, as there are only a couple interesting options at SG. MCW is a guy I will have exposure to, though I really hope Wade is ruled out for 1 more game. I doubt they rush him back before the break.
Small Forward
Jimmy Butler FD - $9700 DK - $9100
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 42.9 DK - 44.81
SF has 5 or 6 ways you can go tonight, though there are a clear top 4 guys. Butler is at the top of that chain, sitting in the $9k's on both sites. butler returned with a solid outing against the Raptors and looked like his normal self. He gets an Avery Bradley-less Celtics team that is a bit of a mess on defense. Jae Crowder will initially see Butler, though he will struggle with his speed off of screens. Butler also gets a bump if Wade is ruled out, as he sees a big usage and shot bump, along with just having the ball in his hands more in general.I could see this game becoming with a shootout between Butler and Thomas, where both of them just go absolutely crazy. Neither team has a guy that matches up particularly well and foul trouble could be in the early future. Butler is an extremely solid option ina ll formats and will be my highest owned SF by far.
Paul George FD - $8600 DK - $8200
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 37.71 DK - 41.22
PG13 has been pretty consistent lately, but just hasn't been putting up big enough numbers. This is a guy who typically puts up 40-50 fantasy points and doesn't blink an eye. It doesn't even look like he's trying to do that anymore, taking a backseat to Teague on multiple occasions. However, we have seen some signs of promise. He has over 20 real-life points in 6 of his last 8 games, along with 5 turnovers in 2 of his last 5. This match-up with the Wizards should be one where George excels and continues his scoring pace. Otto Porter has been an average defender this year, but like Wall, gets hurt by the influx in possessions. George should be a lock for 35 tonight with the upside for much more. George is a guy who can go nuts at any point and this seems like a spot where it could be likely. George can be deployed in both cash games and tournaments, as his price is fair and projections very strong.
Otto Porter FD - $6600 DK - $6200
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 30.25 DK - 31.83
The Wizards are a team we want a lot of exposure to, as they sport the highest projected team total on the slate, combined with an offense that is pretty concentrated. The Wizards don't have much of a bench, which causes most of their production to be funneled out of a few players. Porter is one of those guys, playing monstrous minutes on a regular basis. Porter will be needed to cover Paul George tonight which should force him to be out there for over 35 minutes. Porter still holds the highest 3PT% in the league, mostly due to Wall getting him wide open in the corner constantly, but they count just the same. Paul George is obviously a great defender, but will have his hands full trying to help on Brad Beal and John Wall. Porter comes in at a discount from Butler and George, but has a similar floor/ceiling with price considered. Porter has put up over 50 fantasy points on multiple occasions this year.
Power Forward
Taj Gibson FD - $4600 DK - $4700
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 24.45 DK - 25.6
PF is bad. If you get 4x value tonight, don't complain. Marjiff Morris is available, but way too expensive for what he offers. You definitely can target him in tournaments, but he will force you to pay down somewhere else. Taj Gibson on the other hand, is extremely cheap and pretty consistent. Outside of a few bad games, Gibson will typically sit around 25 fantasy points This is a great match-up for Gibson, who takes advantage of weak interiors. This is certainly one, as they will trot out Al Horford, Kelly Olynyk, and Jonas Jerebko. I'm not going to sit her and act like it's going to be fun playing Taj Gibson, but we're all in the same boat. Here is to hoping some news comes out later on that gives us some fun value. Until then, all the Taj! In all seriousness, he's a solid cash game option and can be deployed in tournaments due to the pure fact that there are no other options.
Kevin Seraphin FD - $4300 DK - $3500
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 22.53 DK - 23.49
As of now, the status of Thad Young and Lavoy Allen are unknown. They both missed last game and would expect them both to miss here as well. For the time being, I will write with the assumption that both of those guys are out. If Young or Allen come back and play, they can replace Seraphin in this spot. The recommendation for Seraphin doesn't come because of what he can do on the floor. It comes because of opportunity. Seraphin saw 27 minutes in each of the last 2 games, finishing with 9 and 16 fantasy points. Yes, he's obviously not the greatest. With that being said you have no option. Outside of Markieff and Taj, PF is a wasteland. You can go with a Bobby Portis or Amir Johnson, but I can assure you they have just as low, if not lower of a floor as Seraphin. If Thad Young and Lavoy Allen both get ruled out, I will be forced into a lot of Seraphin exposure. I do expect him to top 26 fantasy points if given the opportunity once again. Markieff isn't the greatest defender and is far more worried about the other end of the floor. Seraphin is an option in all formats purely due to position scarcity.
Center
Al Horford FD - $7000 DK - $6800
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 33.28 DK - 34.86
Al Horford is definitely one of the more consistent options on the board tonight, rarely finishing anywhere under 20 fantasy points. While he will need much more than that for you, I think he gets it tonight. After a rather lackluster performance last night, Horford should return to his normal game. Robin Lopez will have a lot of trouble coming to the perimeter, which should allow him to hit some open shots. His price is up there however, which definitely causes a discussion. Myles turner and Marcin Gortat are also priced similarly to Horford and do have some appeal. Gortat is a solid cash game option and Turner always offers huge tournaments upside. Let's take a look at what you can do if you need to really pay down.
Robin Lopez FD - $4700 DK - $4400
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 24.6 DK - 25.49
Robin Lopez is probably one of the more painful guys to roster in the league, as he does a whole lot of nothing while touching the ball 100 times. I have never seen a guy that can touch the ball so many times and not end up wth a single point. With that being said, he is a very good rebounder. This match-up sets up well for Lopez, as the same can be said for Horford. he will have trouble coming down low, just like Lopez will struggle coming out. I'm really not too sure why but Lopez averages the 3rd most shots in the 1st quarter. He is a guy they tend to get the ball early to, which gives him some upside if he starts hot.
GRAB A FREE TRIAL OF OUR PROJECTION SYSTEM, AND CHECK OUT DFSR PRO!
GET OUR FREE EBOOK ON DAILY FANTASY NBA!
And Daily Fantasy NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings every day!
image sources
- John Wall, Jordan Clarkson: (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
67 Visitor Comments
Post a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
FREE EBOOK
SECRETS TO CRUSHING DAILY FANTASY FOOTBALL!DON'T SET ANOTHER LINEUP BEFORE YOU READ THIS BOOK.
Be ready to get hammered for writing up Robin Lopez. Side show Lopez shouldn’t even sniff the floor mosto of the time but teams have to play 5.
And the one day that Myles Turner is actually rosterable: you write up Robin Lopez….amazing.
Thanks for reading!
What a mess last night i used the optimizer and it spits out 222.75 points in DK. Can i get a refund?
I thinks I will build around the core of these 4.
Smart-Butler-Teague-Wall
I think that’s the solid way to go at least this early in the day.
Drink the “Dougie Kool-Aid.” Everyone can win life changing money today. That’s what the Optimizer says (oh and Dougie too).
Thanks for reading!
And yet, all of you took the time to come to website and read the write up. Thanks for the suggestions Doug. This is a tool for you to reference. If you want to use it, then use it. If you want to gripe, then look elsewhere.
How to set up a good lineup
Pay up for THomas and Wall Otto and pay down for C and play Olynk or play Teague Thoams and George and play Gortat
Hahahahaha you complainers bring a smile to my morning. Why don’t you man up and be responsible for your own losses since it’s you that’s ultimately hitting “submit”
Why would I recommend a player that’s out?
C carter-williams E ellis N nicholson S seraphin O ochefu R rondo S smart H horford I isaiah P portis
I use the player recommendations as a reference, and I use the comment section for a laugh!!! Complainers please never stop complaining. The fact that you think a website is to blame is hilarious!
I love the site, Great insight I just can’t fathom putting Lopez in at center so I wont play him. Picks are always a great building tool.
Very clever Walter lol
Doug, can you tell me where on our contract you promised life changing money? 🙂
Not sure if you guys are aware, but DFS is not something where you win right away and all the time. It’s essentially gambling but with more data in your favor. Losing does suck, but some of these comments are hilarious
I joined for nba a year ago, and while I haven’t made sky high profit I am ahead after taking out my monthly subscription. I’m also getting to a point where I’m entering 3-4x a night what I was a year ago with no deposits since then.
Doug you can pay me later. Ha
I agree. I use this site (and several others) for small rod bits of info and NEVER play the exact picks. I usually do play two or three of them though.
Teague has helped make me a lot of pocket change this week and Frye has as well until last night….. LOL.
Awesome creativity Walter!!! I had a great laugh on that one.
Michael Brown get off Dougs dick bro, did he agree to fill you in on the actual winning lineups tonight??
D mcDermott E ellis L lopez E ellis T turner E ellis
C crowder O olynyk M mahinmi M miles E ellis N niang T teague S satoransky
Solid effort on this one.
Doug – You are the man and “mining” the groove…thx for the insight and options on the core of 4 picks for now….STM
A question to the blog crew: Given a choice?? Do you play Thomas or Wall??
Wall for me
Thomas tonight because of the matchup but honestly I like Teague the best. I’m sticking with who has made me the money this week and Teague has done that consistently
Super close, but lean Wall. Like Butler over both
last night was a tough night but i’d rather smash or crash.
i crashed last night and after tonight i’m in need of the all star break to regroup and get ready for the second half of the season.
Doug how much does defense v. position factor into the optimizer???
It’s an input for sure.
The optimizer with my locks almost won me 2k last night all I needed was Barnes over moute
The comment section is always quite humorous and today is no exception. I’m wondering if Doug used to beat some of these guys up on the playgroung and posting negative comments is their attemt to get back at him. I guess Chris G thinks there is a magical list of the “winning” lineups that is printed up and given out to the select chosen few and those few conttol who wins and who loses. I guess it is true “you can’t fix stupid”. Bashing a guys picks before the games are played before we know the outcome or saying you only read the writeup to make sure none of the suggestions are in your LU and if they are then you change them. All things losers say. I used to post some neg comments but i’ll let the donkeys do that (you knpw who you are). It makes you look like morons boys. Thought you should know.
Got an lol on this comment.
Can I be added to the list that gets the winning lineups please sir? I’ve been looking and can’t find that magical list.
It is a mathematical fact that if you had every piece of data on earth, studied it more thoroughly than any other human, with the most efficient optimizer/algorithm system, and subscribed to more dfs sites than anyone else….you could only get a 66.3% advantage. Play don’t just STFU
Big Al says, “you can’t fix stupid.” I think he may be correct since he spells plygroung, attemt, select/chosen (tautology), conttol & knpw. Would someone please provide with some spelling picks rather DFS picks? His priorities are clearly distorted.
Thanks for your corrections Walter. I see you are aware that you are 1 of the donkeys i was speaking of. I’m surprised to see we agree on something.
Man! I’m having a tough time figuring out which PF is going to screw me less….Taj Gibson or Olynyk. It’s like deciding if I want to take a shotgun slug to the left foot or right foot. While I’m at it, what’s the consensus on Myles Turner or Marcus Smart at the utility? I’m thinking Marcus Smart.
The winning lineup tonight will not have Wall in it just looked over everything and it says trap. I’m rostering Rondo and Thomas
I’m thinking that you should use Zipser at utility. He’s the perfect plug and play since he will see an uptick in minutes. He’s down on the floor right now since he’s hurt but he may climb up to the ceiling at game time. In boxing terms that’s called “answering the bell.”
Nice write-up! Short slate obviously and i agree on almost all of these picks.
Attention Brilliance: John Wall is not going to be trapped tonight. That would require Isaiah Thomas to put forth extra effort on defense and that’s just not going to happen.
I had a frustrating night too where I did not win one red cent. The one thing about the Lineup Optimizer or any optimizer for that matter is it’s computer generated data based off of variables that are beyond computer control. The optimizer can’t be blamed for Player A getting into foul trouble or Player B having a horrible shooting night. In that case I could get mad at Doug for last year when I rostered The Brow, he got a hangnail during the first qtr and missed the rest of scoring all of two points.
DFS is about fun. It’s more fun if you’re winning and it frustrating losing especially paying for a tool to give you an advantage, but you have an advantage.
Walter…I might just take that advice! I’m sure Zipser has been hydrating and getting the famous Miagi massages where it hurts. The question is, can I count on 0 minutes and 0 fantasy points? If so, welcome to the team, Paul Zipser! I hope he doesn’t feel overshadowed in my lineup tonight. I’ve got some big time scores with Dwayne Wade and Thaddeus Young. Winning lineup right there.
PG: D jackson
PG: je F f teague
SG: S mart
SG: R stuckey
SF: zip S er
SF: b U tler
PF: C j miles
PF: mic K ey
C: chri S tmas
What in the world is Justin talking about? I don’t know anything about a “red cent,” player A, player B or a hangnail. I’m just trying to win a little money playing FD.
Walter has too much time in his
tho M as
p O rtis
M cdermott
S tuckey
gi B son
w A ll
zip S er
t E ague
M iles
butl E r
only N yk
gor T at
Hey Chad, tonight would be a good night to FADE the Washington/Indiana game and the Boston/Chicago game. I don’t see much UPSIDE or VALUE. However, if you feel the need to STACK you may have to PAY UP in order to get some EXPOSURE. Tonight would also be the night to make several CONTRARIAN plays. I hope that helps. If you need further guidance, I can suggest a subscription to Doug’s OPTIMIZER.
It would be nice in the optimizer if we can eliminate a player altogether. For example, I remove him from SG, he shows up in G. Then I remove him there, he shows up in UTIL. And if he would happen to be a PG/SG, then he shows up in the PG spot. With all the late updates, I wanted the optimal lineup and just simply could not remove enough “value” plays fast enough. I didn’t like Frye, Hernangomez, Payton, yet it was hard to remove them as they showed up in different spots. I like to see the proposed plays, as I don’t want to really eliminate all the 3K plays by setting a filter as sometimes late news comes in that I haven’t seen before.
That’s a DraftKings piece. Basically because of the position eligibility we are putting the players in as their different designations. It’s for speed of calculation. But I understand what you’re saying for sure.
Good luck tonight guys! I hope my poor attempt at nutty humor has given you a couple of smiles. I really do enjoy the reading the picks on the site. Best wishes.
hahahaha psyke!
Some guys have all the fun
The winning lineup is somewhere in these picks. Just have to find it.
Doug, I will use the DFSR Pro again tonight man…. i hope you did some tweaking on that optimizer…let’s make some dough tonight 😉 … good luck!
No issue with base projections obviously. Small samples and all. Good luck tonight!
Doug, you mean to tell me DFSR Pro is just spitting out “base projections and small samples”…. i am paying for your DFSR Pro to get good quality projections not base projections… DFSR Pro is a paid service… if I want just a “base projection and small samples” i can get that in other site that offer it for FREE…. again DFSR Pro is a paid service, i think users here that paid for that deserves more than “base projection / small samples”
Just think of it as a puzzle. You get all the pieces, but you got to put them together. Yeah, some of the comments are funny, some are insignificant. If you are building a line-up just from these picks er….uh…..good luck with that. What I thought was a killer lineup last night turned out to win me $6. Spent $24 to win $6. Please jeep in mind that some of your core players may sit, rest, or are on time limit. Thats why I faded Cuz last night. I’m taking mid tier mostly tonight.
Walter, i only play on FD as well. GPP’s only but will play you in a cheap H2H if you wany. My user ID is tiltraise. Let me know.
I may be wrong but out on a limb with a few punts tonight. Also just to say the line I posted yesterday scored 309.25 and cashed for those used the info.
Wall- What needs to be said. He just dropped like 53 on this same team a week or so ago.
G. Rob lll- Had a real nice game yesterday striking the 3 like his ole man Big dog…
PGlll- Hittin his stride. Nice total game that can explode at any time.
Amir Johnson- I know I know had to fit him in. Heck he starts and may get some touches early.
Miles Turner- This dude is longggg. I watched their gave vs my Cavs yesterday at the said he was 7’2 290 dang. Got upside
Marcus Smart- This dude balled out yesterday. I’m just hoping for another. Ride the wave…
Jimmy Butler- He’s basically all the Bulls have without Wade that will play big minutes. Carter-Williams/Rondo, Gibson/Portis/Miritic/Felicio/Rolo all splitting time.
Olynyk- He the spark off the bench usually good for 25-30 on a decent night. Like I just mentioned, the Bulls front court is questionable at best.
Good luck all get this$$$$
Also wanted to say big ups to Doug and Austyn for putting these articles together everyday. Keep doin what you doin boyz. What everyone needs to dig is “This is Fantasy” nothing is guaranteed. All the optimizers and numbers you can run, can and most times steer you in the right direction. It’s up to you to piece the puzzle together.
Doug, you mean to tell me DFSR Pro is just spitting out “base projections and small samples”…. i am paying for your DFSR Pro to get good quality projections not base projections… DFSR Pro is a paid service… if I want just a “base projection and small samples” i can get that in other site that offer it for FREE…. again DFSR Pro is a paid service, i think users here that paid for that deserves more than “base projection / small samples”
Not really sure what you are talking about here. I just meant we wouldn’t be tweaking any of the system because of one down night. That’s all. Think you misinterpreted my meaning with the comment.
I probably did.. the “base projection and small sample” throw me off. Dont get me wrong, i love the system.
I also find it encouraging that the 1st 2 players from the core 4 I listed this morning are the must plays on the update article. Are you guys stealing my picks??? Nah just joking. Smart-Butler
I did sub Teague for PGlll on my core 4 because I think he has a better matchup possibly
Why sit Teague down for a quarter & a half . We pick those guys to play, coaches you cost us…