Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings - The Honda Classic

DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).

Chris is also currently providing his DFS PGA cheatsheet for FREE while it is still in BETA mode. You can also grab a copy of the Slaary/DK Points/Ownership Trends Sheet HERE. It is a link to a shared google sheet in "View Only" mode. It shows eery golfer and his DraftKings salary, Vegas odds, Official World Golf Ranking, raw stats, course history, current form, tournament past 4 years results(if applicable) and correlated stats. I also have weighted stats and weighted overall rankings. If you want to make your own model with the sheet go to "File" at the top and "Make a Copy". If you need help please reach out to me on Twitter or in the DFSR chatroom on Wednesday morning and evening.

 

The Honda Classic

The PGA Tour shifts coasts and heads East to the State of Florida where three of the next four tournaments will be played. It starts with the Honda Classic this week hosted at the PGA National from Palm Beach Gardens. Ask most of the field if they are excited to switch from the bumpy POA greens in Cali to the grainy Bermuda greens in Florida and YES will be a popular answer. Before getting into the stats, let's take a look at the course.

The Course

PGA National(Champion) - Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Par 70 - 7,140 Yards
Greens - Bermuda Grass

*Click to enlarge*

The Stats

After a few weeks of targeting bombers fairly heavily, we get a course that is, for the most part, "less than driver" off the tee which is going to put a ton of emphasis on accuracy, both off the tee and approaching the green. Looking back at the full field results from the previous three years there were three stats(season long ranks) that really stood out and were correlated each year. Guys that ranked high in Strokes Gained Approach, Par 4 Scoring and Bogey Avoidance seem to have the most success. When looking at the correlations it will always be subjective as the correlations are comparing season long stats and we all know how some players do better on some courses and go through hot and cold stretches. That is why these stats are just a starting point for my overall model. This is why I also have secondary stats I also weigh, which I feel are important due to course setup, field, weather, and opinions of other experts in DFS PGA(Check out my Twitter timeline for retweets of my favorite peeps in the industry.

Some of these other stats I am weighing this week are:

• Birdie or Better % - Correlates closely with DraftKings scoring
• Driving Accuracy - Less than driver course will require players to hit fairways to have a chance at hitting the green as the rough can be tough
• GIR from Other than Fairway - With the fairways a bit tougher to hit this week, a large number of the field will hitting their second shot from the rough so this will be a great indicator of the players who can recover and give themselves more birdie looks
• Good Drive % - Very similar to the above stat. It is the % of the time a golfer hits a GIR when missing a fairway. It is a personal preference between the two
• Strokes Gained Around the Green/Scrambling - To avoid making the big numbers, golfers will have to be able to get up and down to save par. It will also be important to avoid the water this week which can be detrimental to the score.

**These are subject to change leading up lineup lock.**

 

Fantasy Angle

This week should be a bit different from the previous weeks on Tour for a few reasons. First of all, the average winning score here at PGA National over the past five years has been around nine under par. That is quite a change from the huge double digit scores we have seen this calendar year. This is going to put some extra emphasis on finishing position points as there won't be near as many birdie opportunities, birdie streaks and bogey-free rounds.

The second difference this week is the move to the East Coast here golfers will now see some more consistent Bermuda Greens. To get a feel for what players perform better on these greens take a look at the FutureOfFantasy Bermuda specialists.

Last week the weather played a huge role in how things played out. I mentioned in the comments and on Twitter that the Thursday Am guys were likely to have the advantage as they might not have to play at all Friday(the worst day). This worked out almost perfectly. This week, however, weather doesn't look like it will sway my decision-making on choosing certain tee times. PGA National is definitely one of the windier courses on Tour and the forecast is showing 10-15 mph winds for the four days. I will be looking very closely at the FutureOfFantasy list of Top Performers in the Wind.

My strategy for the $2 Chip Shot(30 Max Entries) will remain the same. I will be building the majority of those 30 lineups using a three or four player core and interchanging the pieces with about 20 total players. Each week I am looking to narrow my field of players I will be using in an attempt to maximize profits when my core hits.

I also have continued to play the three entry max ($3 Hybrid & $5 Eagle) and single entry($12 Albatross) contests. For these, I try to use my core three or four for two of the lineups and then try and go completely contrarian with the final lineup. To build a contrarian lineup I will try to pivot off three or four of the most popular(highest projected owned) golfers and replace them with someone within a $100 or $200 dollars.

For a feel of where ownership is going to be this week, be sure to head over to FanSharSports where they track all the social media mentions of all players throughout the week. They then quantify this data and rank each player in their "Most Tagged List". Don't set your lineups without checking it out!

 

High End Targets ($9,000+)

Adam Scott
World Golf Ranking (#7)
Vegas Odds (12/1)
Draftkings ($12,200)

I am starting off this week right at the top of salary once again. With a far less loaded field than last week, Scott saw a big $1,900 increase in his salary. While we have seen the highest priced golfer fall outside the Top 5 in ownership for a few weeks running, I don't think that will be the case this week. First of all, there is not near as much talent at the top which limits people's options when building a lineup around one or two golfers. Second, Scott checks every box making it nearly impossible to fade, much like DJ last week and how did that turn out? Scott returns to the Honda Classic as the defending champion and also finished 12th in 2014 in his only two appearances over the past five years. He is coming off a T11 last week at the Genesis and also had finishes of T14 and T10 back in October. Statistically, there is even more to like as Scott ranks #1 on my sheet in SG: Total, SG: Putting, and Good Drive %. He also ranks Top 10 in SG: OTT, SG: T2G, GIR from 175-200 Yards, Scoring Average, and Birdie or Better %. He is safe in all formats.

 

Russell Knox
World Golf Ranking (#18)
Vegas Odds (30/1)
Draftkings ($9,000)

Knox ranks #2 on my overall weighted model this week and for good reason. He leads all other top tier golfers in Driving Accuracy by almost 5% and is second to only Adam Scott in Good Drive %. He ranks #5 in Ball Striking, #16 in Par 4 Scoring, #6 in Bogey Avoidance and Birdie or Better%. He is definitely one of the best fits for this course. He has proved that as well, playing here three times with finishes of T2, T3 and T26 last season. He is coming off a missed cut at the WMPO but before that had finishes of T17 at the TOC, solo 3rd at the OHL Classic, T9 at the WGC-HSBC Champions and T10 at the CIMB Classic.  My prediction is that Knox will be the highest owned golfer this week as he is leading the "Most tagged List" by a long shot over at FanShareSports. This won't stop me from rostering him as I feel I can easily make a few pivots elsewhere in my lineup to separate myself.

 

Zach Johnson
World Golf Ranking (#39)
Vegas Odds (35/1)
Draftkings ($9,700)

From the super chalk in Scott and Knox to my GPP play of the week, Zach Johnson. With a combination of spotty form and below average course history(Cut, Cut, T33) he is almost guaranteed to provide the lowest ownership in the top tier. To confirm this I checked out FanShareSports and sure enough, ZJ(What's a ZJ?) has only been tagged four times, three of which were sit recommendations. From a statistics standpoint, this course makes sense for ZJ as he is accurate off tee(27th in field). He also ranks To p10 in SG: Putting and GIR from 125-175 and 200+, Par 3 and 5 Scoring, BoB% and Scrambling. He is definitely not safe for cash games but with low ownership(projecting 5%) could make the difference in large field tournaments.

 

 

Mid Tier Targets ($7,000 - $8,900)

Tyrrell Hatton
World Golf Ranking (#19)
Vegas Odds (33/1)
Draftkings ($8,500)

There are some very talented European Tour players in the field at the Honda Classic this week and my favorite just happens to be the most expensive. I believe this will most definitely help keep his ownership in the 5-8% range this week, possibly lower. Looking at FanShareSports "Most Tagged" list he tied with Kaymer as the least tagged. Something else that will affect his ownership this week is the amount of great plays around him(Steele, Casey, Berger, Knox, Woodland, Henley, Cabrera Bello). He comes in with excellent Euro form including a most recent T3 at the strong field Omega Dubai Desert Classic. I wouldn't trust Hatton for cash games at $8,500 having no course history but he will be a staple in my GPP's this week.

 

 

Jason Dufner
World Golf Ranking (#69)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
Draftkings ($7,500)

Looking at the field on Sunday when I first entered the names into my cheatsheet, I thought Dufner would for sure be in the $8K range this week. So it was a nice site to see some #Value as you get him in the mid $7K range. He comes in with some history having never missed a cut here in eight tries including two Top 20's and a Top 10 finish. He fits the accuracy model as he is ranked #3 in Driving Accuracy in the field, #10 in GIR, #11 GIR from Other than the Fairway, #3 in Par 4 Scoring and #22 in BoB%. The only thing that really scares me is his low ranking in SG: Approach(101) and SG: Around the Green(98). Dufner is going to be popular in the $7K range but safe in all formats. If you want a lower owned play for GPP's take a look at Sean O'Hair who will most likely be sub 5%.

GPP Pivot: Sean O'Hair

 

 

William McGirt
World Golf Ranking (#48)
Vegas Odds (80/1)
Draftkings ($7,400)

Looking at everything I use to weigh a player each week(Current Form, Course History, Stats), McGirt is in a very similar situation as Jason Dufner. He ranks Top 10 in Driving Accuracy, Good Drive %, GIR, GIR Other than Fairway and Par 4 Scoring. The form has been spotty with two Top 25's on the year but he has made five cuts in seven tournaments. The course history trend looks very positive as well as he missed the cut in 2013, finished near dead last in 2014, picked up a T22 in 2015 and then finished T8 last year. lock him into your lineups in all formats this week.

GPP Pivot: Francesco Molinari

 

 

 

Low End Target (Min Price - $6,900)

J.J. Spaun
World Golf Ranking (#118)
Vegas Odds (90/1)
Draftkings ($6,700)

As I always do first in the bottom tier, I look at Vegas Odds to DK Salary Differential to mine some low-end value. Right near the top of the list is J.J. Spaun who ranks 89th in salary and 37th in Vegas Odds.  The PGA Tour rookie is having a predictable up and down year making six of his first 10 cuts but appears much more comfortable lately. He is coming off a missed cut at Pebble Beach but had back to back Top 10's before that at the WMPO and Farmers Insurance Open. He draws comparisons to McGirt and Dufner as well, as he is another accuracy type player ranked 40th in Driving Accuracy, 16th in Good Drive %, 15th in GIR OTF, and he also ranks 25th in the field in BoB%. Terrific value for GPP's in the sub $7K range and the most recent missed cut could drive the ownership down in the 5% range.

 

 

Tim Wilkinson
World Golf Ranking (#316)
Vegas Odds (225/1)
Draftkings ($6,900)

First of all, a player ranked #316 in the world and 225/1 to win should never be considered in cash games but makes an excellent sub 2% owned GPP play this week. After missing back to back cuts to start the season he has churned out five straight cuts with no finish worse than a T39 most recently at Pebble Beach. He also comes back to the Honda with decent course history including making the cut in four of five tournaments. He even fits my model in a big way in some stats like SG: Approach(35th), SG: Around the Green(4th), Par 4 Scoring(40th) and Scrambling(14th). What more could you ask for for a sub $7K golfer?

 

 

Also Consider: Michael Kim(GPP)

 

 

 

If you have any questions leading up to lineup lock Thursday morning you can reach me in a variety of ways. Leave a Q below in the comment section and I will get you an answer. You can hit me up in the new chatroom here at DFSR(It's crazy busy with NBA/NHL talk so try and private message me for specific PGA Q's. I am also always available on Twitter(@jager_bombs9). Good luck this week!

 

**Note on Stats - The stats I refer to in this article are from my own spreadsheet/cheatsheet and weigh both 2017 and 2016 stats. If you have any questions about the cheatsheet please contact me on Twitter(@Jager_Boms9).**

 

 

The Honda Classic Update Thread

**Weather Update**

 

**Tee Times**

 

 

 

 

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.