Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 3/5/17

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Point Guard

Jrue Holiday FD - $7700 DK - $7400
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 36.77 DK - 39.86

Holiday was expected to see a dip in production with DeMarcus Cousins joining the team. Instead, he has played well with Cousins and has been able to put up 30+ in 3 of his last 4. It looks like he may not shoot the ball quite as much, but will still have the ball in his hands a lot and get enough shots to make it worth the while. The Lakers are one of the worst teams in the league against point guards, allowing over 46 fantasy points per game, which ranks 2nd worst in the league behind just the Suns. D'Angelo Russell has been absolutely atrocious on defense and that won't change until at least next season. Holiday will eat up this defense with pick n rolls, using both Cousins and Davis to create space and attack the rim. Holiday will have a great opportunity to come through at a modest price tag in a match-up that provides a ton of upside. He's also extremely safe with a floor around 30 due to his locked minutes and forced usage. Holiday is a fantastic option in both formats on all sites.

D'Angelo Russell FD - $6400 DK - $7100
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 33.92 DK - 36.8

The Pelicans are one of the teams we will spend a lot of salary on tonight, though the same can't be said for their opponent in the LA Lakers. Russell is the only guard I have interest in on this team, as both Nick Young and Jordan Clarkson have been horrible and have ben getting inconsistent minutes. Russell has taken the guard responsibilities on his shoulders, topping 25 fantasy points in 5 straight contests. Russell also hit 35 in 3 of those 5 games, destroying tournament value. He gets a match-up with the Pelicans, who rank 21st in the league against PG's and gives up close to 44 FP a night. Russell should have plenty of success against Holiday, who has been very lackluster individually on defense. Russell is definitely a lot riskier than we would like to admit, as he can have a 10 point game at any time. However, there is a much higher chance he continues his torrid pace and finished with 40 points. In cash games, I think you find a way to pay up for Holiday.

John Wall FD - $10400 DK - $10000
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 49.02 DK - 52.23

Point guard is pretty weird on this slate, as there are some ways to pay up, though the prices are just a bit out of range. Wall is the fairest priced of the star PG's, taking on the Magic at home with a 215 over/under. Wall has been himself lately, regularly topping 4o fantasy points and hitting 50 one out of every 3 or 4 games. This could easily be one of them, as the Magic set up as a good match-up for Wall. Payton is a decent individual defender, but lacks the footwork and speed to stay with Wall on screens. Wall has been playing a ton of minutes lately as well, due to the Wizards bench being absolutely horrible. The Wizards are forced to play the starters bg minutes because of this and it ends up giving all of them a huge upside. As for Wall, he is a solid option in all formats with a 45 point floor and 70 point upside. Russell and Holiday are both preferred in their respective formats.

Early slate - Jeff Teague, Derrick Rose

Shooting Guard

Devin Booker FD - $6100 DK - $6700
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 28.6 DK - 30.82

Devin Booker is just too cheap across the entire industry and it's gonna be very hard to fade him anywhere. While Avery Bradley is a shutdown defender and just returned from injury, he is still on a minutes limit and won't see more than 25 minutes. Even when Avery Bradley is in the game, Devin Booker can score. Outside of Bradley, he'll see the likes of Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart. Most of his success should come off of Smart, who is a little too slow to stay with Booker on screens. He's one of the best young scorers in the league at guard, as shown by his ability to score so consistently. Over the last 10 games, Booker has been below 25 fantasy points just once. He's been over 40 just once as well, so the upside might not be too crazy on a regular. However, at $6k, it's more than there. Booker will be in every one of my lineups tonight and I don't see too many reasons to dislike him.

Evan Fournier FD - $5300 DK - $5500
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 26.01 DK - 28.44

Fournier continues to sit in the mid-$5k range on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which is far too cheap. With only 1 disappointing game out of his last 9, Fournier has been one of the more reliable options at SG over the last month or so. Bradley Beal will cover Fournier, which is fine. Beal's a fine individual defender but struggles staying with guards on off-ball screens. Fournier will rarely control the ball, though he sees a lot of possessions where he shoots off the catch. Fournier has also played big minutes recently, switching between 34 and 38 minutes over the last 4. He has also been upping his peripherals this season, which gives him a lot of upside in games with a fast pace. Fournier is the safest option at SG on this slate and he will be in 100% of my cash games. Fournier is extremely strong in both formats, though Booker is preferred across the board. In cash games, I currently have 100% of both. Any exposure to anyone else will be in tournaments.

Brad Beal FD - $7500 DK - $7200
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 34.28 DK - 36.65

Shooting guard has a few spots to pay down at, but you have to really reach. I don't think the optimal lineups ends up with any of those $3-4k SG's, though 1 could easily go off out of nowhere. In tournaments, I would rather pay up to be different. With a lot of people on other guys around the same price, Beal is going to go very overlooked. I expect him to be around 10-12% owned, which is far too low against a Magic team that doesn't play much defense. Fournier in particular is much more of an offensive player. He has allowed the 6th most FP per game to SG's this year, allowing over 43 FP per game. Beal has been playing around 36 minutes per game, with unlimited upside in that time. He also has the floor to get cold and hit 25. Either way, he won't kill you. Booker and Fournier are preferred for their prices, but Beal is a great way to look in tournaments.

Early slate - Klay Thompson, Courtney Lee

Small Forward

Harrison Barnes FD - $6100 DK - $6300
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 31.19 DK - 32.91

Small forward is pretty ugly on this slate, with a lot of very average guys to choose from. Barnes is priced like one of those average guys, but is far better in reality. Along with Seth Curry, Barnes has led the Mavs over the past couple weeks. This match-up with the Thunder should set up extremely well for Barnes, as I expect the lockdown defender in Roberson to cover Curry as he carries the ball more often than Barnes. That will leave either Abrines or Oladipo on Barnes, who are both too small. This game with the Thunder is a huge uptick in pace for the Mavs, who are used to playing at one of the slowest paces in the NBA. That should lead to a few extra shots and peripherals for Barnes, who can use every bonus he can get. Barnes is a great option in all formats, with limited upside.

Terrence Ross FD - $4500 DK - $5500
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 27.44 DK - 29.46

Terrence Ross has been one of the more popular value plays across the industry and rightfully so. After burning almost 90% of the field a few nights ago, he came back with a solid 30 fantasy point performance. This is a match-up I love Ross in, as he derives a lot of his upside from transition baskets and peripherals. There should be plenty of both up for grabs against the Wizards, who play faster than the Raptors. Ross is extremely cheap on FD, though his price on DK has given me some hesitation. I still think he's a tad bit too cheap and I'll have him in all my cash games. With a few very solid options to pay up for, you will need to pay down in a couple spots here. You can do much worse than Terrence Ross.

Jaylen Brown FD - $3900 DK - $4100
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 10.47 DK - 11.22

Small forward gets very thin towards the bottom, with Jaylen Brown being the only guy that stands out. Brown has been above 19 fantasy points in 4 of his last 5, playing 23 minutes or more in each. While the return of Avery Bradley will take minutes away from Brown, brad Stevens has made it clear that he wants Brown to remain on the court. I wouldn't expect the minutes to dip below 23 on a consistent basis and especially not against e thSuns. This is the perfect type of game for Brown, who excels in fast-paced match-ups where he can use his athleticism as a huge weapon The Suns love to run, ranking 2nd in the NBA in terms of pace. They also allow the 6th most points to SF's and give up over 41 FP per game. Brown is pretty safe for his price and the upside might just be there in this match-up.

Early slate - Carmelo Anthony, Lance Thomas

 

Power Forward

Anthony Davis FD - $11200 DK - $13000
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 56.76 DK - 61.17

For a rather small slate, you have a lot of options to pay up for. Davis comes in as one of our top superstar options, taking on the Lakers on the road in the Staples Center. As a note, Davis is far more expensive on DK and makes a much better cash game option on FD. We talked about how inept the Lakers were against guards and the same can be said for the interior. While Julius Randle has a lot of offensive upside, he's an atrocious defender, as is Timofey Mozgov and Ivica Zubac. Both Davis and Cousins will absolutely obliterate everyone down low. They have both played this team multiple times before and had extreme success. There is simply nobody on the entire roster that can even slow Davis down. Julius Randle will cover him to start and he's just a very average defender. Davis is safe in cash games for 50 and has 80 fantasy point upside in tourneys. With that being said, Cousins is a lot more appealing on DK than Davis due to his crazy $13k price tag.

Julius Randle FD - $6200 DK - $6500
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 31.27 DK - 33.07

Julius Randle continued his antics of being insanely unpredictable last game, scoring 24 fantasy points. That was after a game against the Hornets in which Randle put up almost 65 fantasy points on a major double-double. He takes on the Pelicans tonight in a game where he will certainly be needed. Randle and Russell are the only 2 guys that have been scoring consistently and they will continue to work the magic tonight. While Davis and Cousins are both pretty good on-ball defenders, they struggle in transition and the pick n roll. Randle will be able to get open plenty and may also force the defense to collapse, which is how he has his few triple-doubles. Randle is extremely versatile and somebody I like in all formats. He may not be the safest option on the board, but nobody in that price range really is.

Derrick Favors FD - $5500 DK - $5500
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 25.85 DK - 27.01

Derrick Favors saw 34 minutes last game, which means it's officially time for the sites to move him back to $7k+. Until then, I will play him every single day. This is a guy who can dominate on offense, leading this Jazz team many times just a season ago. Favors s a polished low-post scorer and can also rebound quite well. He has as much upside aa anyone on the slate with price considered, especially in this match-up against the Kings. Without DeMarcus Cousins, they have sported a putrid interior. While Cauley-Stein is a rather good defender, he will have his hands full with Rudy Gobert. That will leave Kosta Koufos and Anthony Tolliver to cover Favors, which won't turn out well. Favors is one of my favorite plays on the board in all formats.

Early slate - Draymond Green, Paul Millsap

 

Center

DeMarcus Cousins FD - $10300 DK - $10200
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 55.82 DK - 58.43

We touched on AD just a bit ago and the same reasoning applies for Cousins. I think Cousins presents an even bigger match-up problem for the Lakers, as he has the power to combo with the speed. I think Tarik Black will get some decent run if Cousins is playing well, but he won't be able to do much. Cousins will take it to the outside and get as many wide open shots as he could possibly want. If they keep a Mozgov or Zubac in to cover him, it will get unbelievably ugly. Very quickly. Cousins is also much cheaper than Davis on both sites, who has a similar floor and ceiling in my opinion. The Pelicans have done a great job of feeding Cousins, although they haven't been able to win a game with him on the floor. Cousins is one of the safer bets you will find on this slate, with enough upside to lead you to the top of a tournament. There isn't too much else to say. It's two of the top players in the league facing off with the arguably league-worst Lakers interior.

Al Horford FD - $6000 DK - $5900
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 32.64 DK - 34.42

Horford is a guy I rarely roster, as you can usually find a guy around his price with a higher ceiling and a similar floor. The same can be said tonight, with Nerlens Noel, Alan Williams, Marcin Gortat, and Steven Adams all within $300 of Horford on FanDuel. That should lower his ownerships in tournaments and keep him fairly low owned in cash games. Horford does carry a higher % tag in cash games as he is far more popular in that format, rightfully so.Horford will rarely win you a GPP, though he will rarely sink you. He's a ver inconsistent big man who is counted on down the stretch for scoring and rebounding. This match-up with the Suns should set up well as they have nobody on the interior that can cover Horford both inside and out. Marquese Chriss has the best chance, though he won't start on Horford and it will take a few quarters for the Suns to figure that out. While Cousins is the top option at center, Horford is a quality option if you want to pay down for 25-32 fantasy points.

Nerlens Noel FD - $6300 DK - $5400
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 27.68 DK - 28.95

Nerlens Noel started for the injured Wesley Matthews on Friday, playing 35 minutes en route to 15 points, 17 rebounds, and 44 fantasy points. He did that against the Grizzlies interior, who have ranked 2nd best in the league behind just the Utah Jazz in terms of defensive efficiency vs centers. While we probably can't "expect" that, he is a guy who was very good when given the minutes in Philadelphia. This Thunder team plays extremely fast and pretty big, which plays very well into Noel's game. I would expect Noel to start once again and play at least 30 minutes. He will be needed to deal with Steven Adams and Enes Kanter, who will absolutely bully the likes of Salah Mejri and Dirk Nowitzki. Noel is a bit of a GPP option, but a great one at that.

Early slate - Dwight Howard, Myles Turner

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