Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings - Valspar Championship

DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).

Chris is also currently providing his DFS PGA cheatsheet for FREE while it is still in BETA mode. You can also grab a copy of the Salary/DK Points/Ownership Trends Sheet HERE. It is a link to a shared google sheet in "View Only" mode. It shows eery golfer and his DraftKings salary, Vegas odds, Official World Golf Ranking, raw stats, course history, current form, tournament past 4 years results(if applicable) and correlated stats. I also have weighted stats and weighted overall rankings. If you want to make your own model with the sheet go to "File" at the top and "Make a Copy". If you need help please reach out to me on Twitter or in the DFSR chatroom on Wednesday morning and evening.

If you are looking for a recap of last week's WGC Mexico Championship be sure to visit Chris's BLOG where he breaks down the DraftKings points, ownership, and world golf rankings.

 

Valspar Championship

After a little trip across the wall....I mean border, the PGA Tour returns to the Florida swing for the 2017 Valspar Championship. After a very strong field that included 49 of the Top 50 in the world in Mexico, we aren't nearly as fortunate this week as we have just two of the Top 10 with Justin Thomas(#7) and Henrik Stenson(#6). Three more inside the Top 20 including Patrick Reed(#12), Bubba Watson(#16) and Matt Kuchar(#20) and just 15 of the Top 50 in the world. This means we are going to see a ton of golfers who will come with much higher salaries than their season average.

Before getting into the picks let's take a look at the course and key stats.

 

The Course

Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)
Par 71 - 7,340 Yards
Greens - Bermuda

*Click to enlarge*

The Copperhead course is considered one of the toughest tests in golf outside the Majors and the scorecard doesn't quite tell the entire story.  The first thing we notice is that Copperhead is unique with five Par 3's and all five come in at 195 yards or greater. Take a look at the hole layouts and you can see that distance isn't the only challenge on these Par 3's and most of the holes overall. Sand is very prevalent throughout the course and like most Florida courses, so is water. The Copperhead course is also known for its double doglegs and that combined with the sand, water, and trees, will put a ton of emphasis on placement of the golf ball off the tee. Driving distance can be put on the back burner this week with more weight put on accuracy as we will once again see a lot of "less than driver" strategies.

Players will want to make their scores before reaching the famous "Snake Pit" which is made up of Holes 16 through 18. It starts with a daunting Par 4 that stretches 475 yards that is lined with water all down the right side. It continues with the 215 yard, Par 3, 17th hole that has a very narrow green that is protected by bunkers and trees. To close out the round players will face the tricky Par 4, 18th hole that demands accuracy as it is lined with bunkers down both sides and is uphill to the green making it longer than its posted 445 yards.

 

The Stats

With this being another "less than driver" setup I will be weighing Strokes Gained: Approach very high this week. Another stat I will be looking at(thanks to @FantasyGolfMan) this week is a combination of Strokes Gained Approach and Off the Tee to replace an old and clunky Ball Striking stat that doesn't really paint the entire picture. I will be monitoring this and reporting through my blog on the weekly recap article. Looking at the correlated stats from the past three seasons, Par 4 scoring and Bogey Avoidance both showed up in the Top five in all three years.

My model will be heavy on current form with a mix of course history and the stats above. The first thing I noticed when putting this model together is that there are a ton of options at all price levels despite the weak field.

 

For a feel of where ownership is going to be this week, be sure to head over to FanSharSports where they track all the social media mentions of all players throughout the week. They then quantify this data and rank each player in their "Most Tagged List". Don't set your lineups without checking it out!

 

High End Targets ($9,000+)

Bill Haas
World Golf Ranking ($9,200)
Vegas Odds (30/1)
Draftkings ($9,200)

His price took a huge $2,200 jump this week after a disappointing T32 last week at the WGC Mexico Championship. If not for an awful 75 on Saturday he would have finished much higher in the star-studded field. This week he ranks #1 in my model and it has to do with a near elite combination of stats, current form and course history. He has played here twice over the past two years with a T14 in 2014 and a runner-up finish last year after losing to Schwartzel in a playoff. Statistically, he fits the model perfect as he ranks 13th in SG: APP, 3rd in Par 3 & 4 Scoring, and 1st in Bogey Avoidance. He is one of the safest plays in the field this week having made all eight cuts this season with one Top 10 and six Top 25 finishes.

 

 

Henrik Stenson
World Golf Ranking (#6)
Vegas Odds (10/1)
Draftkings ($11,700)

He burned me and many others last week with an early round one withdraw, but I am not letting that affect my decision making this week. It sets up for a perfect opportunity to jump on board in GPP's as some may not let the pain of last week go away so easily. He is the highest ranked player in the world in this field and went into the WGC Mexico with elite Euro Tour form. While he doesn't have enough PGA Tour rounds to qualify for stats, he would have been #1 when looking at SG: OTT + APP in 2016 and is a master of holstering the driver and going allin on the 3-wood.

 

 

Charles Howell III
World Golf Ranking (#44)
Vegas Odds (35/1)
Draftkings ($9,400)

He was very inconsistent at Copperhead early in his career with some Top 10's, missed cuts and everything in between. After taking a two-year break from the event he returned in 2014 and has tallied a T14, T10 and T5 last season. He seems to have found that consistency and combined with his current form and stats, makes a great play in all formats this week. He had a disappointing final round most recently at the Honda Classic and finished with a T52 but had tallied eight straight finishes of inside the Top 15 prior to that. He ranks 21st in SG: OTT + APP as well as Top20 in Par 3, 4 and 5 scoring, Bogey Avoidance and Birdie or Better %. That is a recipe that should lead to DFS success this week.

 

 

Also Consider: Patrick Reed

 

Mid Tier Targets ($7,000 - $8,900)

Billy Horschel
World Golf Ranking (#72)
Vegas Odds (45/1)
Draftkings ($7,900)

After loading the stats this week and seeing Horschel ranked 6th in SG: OTT + APP and Top 10 in Good Drive %, GIR from 200+, and Par 4 Scoring, I was sure he would be in the mid $8K - $9K range. I was delighted when salaries were released to seem him just under $8K. I get it. He doesn't have near the course history of some of the other guys priced higher but with those stats and his current form, I think he could be a low owned, high-upside play here at Copperhead. He has made six of eight cuts this season with two Top 10's, one coming in his last start at the Honda Classic(T4).

 

 

Martin Laird
World Golf Ranking (#108)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
Draftkings ($7,400)

He sits just outside the Top 10 in my model this week which equates to some nice value as he is priced in the mid $7K range this week. His price is actually a $100 less than it was in his last start at the Genesis Open where he finished with a T8. It was his fourth Top 10 of the season in just eight tournaments while making every cut as well. He is another guy that fits my GPP model that has less weight on course history as some players won't play a guy with spotty or no course history. Let's not kid ourselves, these are professionals and they can show up at any course, especially those that choose their own schedules.

 

 

J.J. Spaun
World Golf Ranking (#114)
Vegas Odds (75/1)
Draftkings ($7,200)

I have been on him for a few tournaments now and he has paid off handsomely. Like I mentioned above, guys with spotty or no course history make great GPP plays as they generally come in lower owned than those with positive history in the same price range. He also fits the accuracy profile I am looking for as he ranks 10th in SG: OTT and 17th in combined SG: OTT and APP. Other stats that really stand out for Spaun are his 3rd overall ranking in GIR from 200+ yards and 7th overall ranking in Par 3 scoring. A Top 20 is all it will take for him to pay off his salary this week and I think he can easily accomplish this.

 

 

 

Low End Target (Min Price - $6,900)

Scott Piercy
World Golf Ranking (#41)
Vegas Odds (100/1)
Draftkings ($6,900)

He started the season out red hot with Top 10's in three of his first five tournaments and didn't miss a cut until most recently at the Genesis Open. The missed cut was inevitable after poor T55, sole 73rd, T41 and T57 finishes following that hot start. He appears to be getting his groove back after firing an impressive final round 66 at the WGC Mexico Championship last weekend. It also appears the public and most touts are off him or hiding their love as he has only been tagged a couple of times over at FanShareSports. Statistically, he fits the mold ranking 24th in SG: OTT + APP, 31st in Par 3 scoring, 33rd in Par 4 scoring and 5thin Birdie or Better %. I absolutely love a player trending down in ownership(2% last week after seeing 15% earlier in the year) and up in form. Jump on board at this value price.

 

 

Bud Cauley
World Golf Ranking (#179)
Vegas Odds (150/1)
Draftkings ($6,500)

Dipping right down near the bottom of salary is an excellent stars and scrubs candidate. Cauley first played here in 2012 and picked up and impressive T16 finish after firing an eight-under par. He withdrew in 2013 and will be making his first appearance since. The Florida native has been up and down this season and at one point has missed four straight and five of six cuts from November to January. Sandwiched in between those missed cuts? An impressive T3 at the CareerBuidler Challenge. This shows his inconsistency but also shows he can shoot the lights out as well. At a low $6K salary a T3 would be incredible but realistically we would be thrilled with a Top 20 in DraftKings points.

 

 

 

Also Consider: Cameron Smith

 

 

 

If you have any questions leading up to lineup lock Thursday morning you can reach me in a variety of ways. Leave a Q below in the comment section and I will get you an answer. You can hit me up in the new chatroom here at DFSR(It's crazy busy with NBA/NHL talk so try and private message me for specific PGA Q's. I am also always available on Twitter(@jager_bombs9). Good luck this week!

 

**Note on Stats - The stats I refer to in this article are from my own spreadsheet/cheatsheet and weigh both 2017 and 2016 stats. If you have any questions about the cheatsheet please contact me on Twitter(@Jager_Boms9).**

 

 

Valspar Championship Update Thread

**Weather Update**

 

 

 

 

 

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.