Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 3/10/17

This isn't as big a Friday slate as we're used to with only eight games on tap. For a TGIF kind of situation that's almost a mini-slate. But we'll make due with some interesting value cropping up early and injury news to we'll monitor throughout the day.

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Point Guards

Isaiah Thomas FD - $9200 DK - $8700
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 46 DK - 48.59
It seems like forever since we’ve really had to consider IT3 in cash games because after a torrid stretch his price had climbed to an untenable figure and he was better left as a GPP play. But the price is coming back to Earth on the little guy and tonight he gets one of the best matchups in the NBA for opposing point guards. Denver’s allowing about 7% more scoring and 8% more assists than league average to PGs. This is thanks to being 8th in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency. This is basically the perfect matchup who’s still jacking up a ton of shots and before the Warriors’ game had scored at least 30 actual points in four of the last six games. It’s a perfect time to buy.

Kemba Walker FD - $8400 DK - $8100
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 41.2 DK - 43.85
Kemba’s price is up a little bit in the short term thanks to a healthy scoring output built on torrid shooting from beyond the arc. In his last five games Walker is shooting 45% from three and averaging over 21 shots per game. The Magic are below average across the board against opposing point guards this season though it should be said that if they are playing with Biyombo rather than Vucevic tonight that does increase the rim protection. But I’m still buying on Kemba who should continue seeing a healthy diet of minutes. Kemba is a score-first one who needs to get the ball in the hoop (of course) but this is a solid matchup against a weaker Magic defense.

Elfrid Payton FD - $7000 DK - $7000
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 31.42 DK - 32.98
Is he Russell Westbrook-lite? A triple double machine now that he’s been unleashed in a post-Vucevic world? I think’s of course a bit of my own hyperbole, but there’s no denying the crushing tour Payton went on against the Bulls with a 22/14/14 line (his second triple double in as many games). I suspect he’s a popular tonight because of the recent performance and a rather clear uptick in minutes since Vuce went down. While those two guys are binary one-for-one replacements, Frank Vogel has been fine running Payton out for major minutes and dude’s responded. The only thing I get worried about with Payton is the Magic are never, ever safe with minutes and he’s fallen out of favor before. But he’s likely a chalk play tonight because he’s been simply amazing.

Shooting Guards

James Harden FD - $11800 DK - $11600
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 54.13 DK - 58.9
Though I think Thomas represents the bigger money you want to have exposure to in cash games, there’s a solid chance on this size a slate that you’ll be looking for other ways to round out the salary. That’s where Harden comes in. The Rockets have the highest implied total coming into tonight at 113 and face a Bulls’ squad around league average against opposing point guards this season. What we are likely buying with on Harden tonight is the floor. While he’s been struggling a bit to hit 5x consistently on this FanDuel price, I do see him as a safer option that say Giannis who is only $700 less. (The decision is a little starker on DraftKings where they are separated by $1500.) A decent matchup for Harden should mean he gets close to his implied cash game floor and on a big slate without a lot of other big money options, I do think you see him highly owned tonight.

Evan Fournier FD - $5600 DK - $5700
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 27.95 DK - 30.21
34, 34, 34, 34. Those are Evan Fournier’s minutes in his last four games. While some guys on the Magic are all over the place in terms of their run, Fournier is ultra-consistent. There’s a lot of safety in that and for his price he likely makes a chalkier shooting guard option tonight. He sees a solid bump in usage without Vuce (roughly 3% when we regress it on our side) and sees an uptick in rebounding as well. Coming off a solid game against the Bulls with a 20/9/2 line, he should be a popular play in the mid tier. You have to love the 16 shots per game he’s seeing in the last three with Vuce off the floor and though Charlotte isn’t an ideal matchup, the price plays on him.

Seth Curry FD - $6200 DK - $6700
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 29.44 DK - 31.65
Wesley Matthews FD - $5200 DK - $5200
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 26.25 DK - 28.44
I’m putting these guys together here because you know the drill. The Nets are about the very best matchup you can hope to have in DFS considering they have all but given up playing D and run at a fast pace with their smattering of guard types, retreads and never-have-beens. It’s just the perfect scenario and we likely want to have at least some exposure to Dallas. The issue of course is this game could be well over by the fourth quarter. Brook Lopez isn’t playing for the Nets and the Mavs are big favorites going in (-12 at open). That’s a lot of blowout risk to absorb even from guys like Matthews and Curry who play fairly steady minutes. Curry is coming well out of his brother’s (implied) shadow and has become a solid usage guy who will put up mid-teens in shots. Matthews always feels a little risky but again the matchup is prime.

Eric Gordon jumps to the very top of the value play list if Ryan Anderson sits again tonight.
Also strongly consider Gary Harris and Will Barton if Gallo and Jokic both can’t go again tonight.

Small Forwards

Harrison Barnes FD - $6000 DK - $6400
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 33.54 DK - 35.25
He follows much the same line of thought as the Curry/ Matthews write up above considering he’s also playing the Nets (because he’s on the same team as those guys above in case you missed that part). While I’m for sure worried about the blowout, it’s worth it to mention here that in 63 games this season, Barnes has played less than 32 minutes only 7 times. The dude just gets run and there are plenty of “blowouts” in there. Barnes often shows up in our lineups. One concern with Barnes is that as the Mavs get healthier (Dirk, Matthews, etc all playing) he has seen something along the lines of a usage dip in the short term. He’s averaging about 5% less shots in the short term though some of that could do with tough matchups against teams like the Grizz, Hawks and Heat. I think the matchup here trumps some of those concerns though and I’m likely to even stomach the blowout risk.

Terrence Ross FD - $4500 DK - $5200
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 27.99 DK - 29.94
There are some encouraging signs for Ross as a play tonight. First off, his FanDuel price has barely moved and I think he’s still a favorite for mid 30’s minutes. He’s been variable in his performances since coming over in the trade for Ibaka and he likely isn’t “safe” considering how much he relies on scoring to hit value, but the price is still right and I’m completely fine semi-punting here in a decent matchup. Ross should see double digit shot attempts considering he’s averaging 13 looks per since the trade.

The All-Caveat Set of Small Forward Picks
There’s no standout guy at the position so I’m going to run down a group of guys you can consider in an “if this, then that” fashion.
- Wilson Chandler is a fantastic play if Jokic and/or Gallo sit again. If both are down then he’s likely the very best play at the position tonight. If one of them sits he’s still a great play.
- PJ Tucker saw a ton of minutes with Carroll out last game and managed to do very little with them. I would consider him though if Carroll sat again simply because he’s cheap and that’s a lot of run.
- Thabo Sefolosha is the cheap guy to consider if the other punts don’t work out.

Power Forwards

Aaron Gordon FD - $5600 DK - $5900
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 28.79 DK - 30.17
Am I going to write up an Orlando Magic player at every position? You got it. While I saw Gordon as a little bit of an overpay last time around on Wednesday, I do think you can go back there tonight. He was chalk and didn’t pay value, but that doesn’t mean we need to avoid him in this one. Of all the Magic starters, he’s the least likely to see significant upside in terms of minutes, but he combats that here by facing a Charlotte team allowing about 4% more rebounding than league average to opposing fours. Gordon is athletic as hell and though it didn’t materialize last game, has seen significantly more shots since Vuce went down with injury. Let’s fire him up tonight at a weaker power forward position.

Paul Millsap FD - $7900 DK - $7400
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 39.86 DK - 41.97
It was close-ish between Millsap and Draymond in the “$8000 PF guy who should see a bunch of minutes” category. But Millsap wins out because he’s been playing a boat load and should significant run again tonight. The Raptors are definitely better on defending the four now that Ibaka is there, though it should be mentioned that the latter is even shifting up to the five at times. I think Millsap will find himself in plus matchups in a game where he could see minutes trending up and over 38. Few (if any) power forwards are getting that kind of run. He’s averaging a 22/8/4 over his last five thanks in large part to the court time and in an Eastern Conference leverage game he should play a ton again.

Marvin Williams FD - $5900 DK - $5600
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 28 DK - 30.13
Per NBAWowy, Marvin Williams has seen the most minutes on the team with Frank Kaminsky off the court and sees rather dramatic boosts in just about every relevant statistic. With the Tank sidelined the Hornets have been content to run Marv close to 40 minutes per and he’s coming off a 14/12/3/3 game that more than paid value for our cash games. I think that performance is definitely the high end of his expectation and the price has come up some on the recent performance. But I think his implied minutes give him such a solid floor in this middle pricing tier.

Centers

Bismack Biyombo FD - $4900 DK - $5500
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 31.11 DK - 32.76
And that’s five-for-five on Magic guys. Of course Biyombo is really only in play if Vuce sits again, but I think that’s the case tonight. Biyombo’s played 34, 42 and 35 minutes in the last three since the other big guy went down and the Magic really need him considering they have no other real size on the team. Though he’s seen a big price bump over the course of this week, I still think he’s perfectly fine as a cash game center if you figure he’s on the court for the majority of the game. The 6/6 line last time against the Bulls feels like the outlier considering he averaged a 12/15 in the two games prior.

Cody Zeller FD - $5100 DK - $5200
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 27.41 DK - 28.47
Zeller’s been the other winner in the “Frank’s no here so our other remaining bigs need to play all of the minutes” sweepstakes. (I used that device twice and I’m fine with it.) Seller dealt with injuries over the short term but played 34 minutes against the Pacers and an unfathomable 42 against the Heat. He was pretty bad statistically against Miami, but I’m fine with playing him if this is the kind of run he’s expected to see. He’s just a game removed from a double-double against the Pacers and has that kind of potential again tonight. It’s funny, Zeller would check two boxes tonight if Vuce were to actually play. It would take Bismarck off the table and also give Cody a much better matchup.

Strongly consider Mason Plume if Jokic is out again

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