Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings - Puerto Rico Open

DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).

Chris is also currently providing his DFS PGA cheatsheet for FREE while it is still in BETA mode. You can also grab a copy of the Salary/DK Points/Ownership Trends Sheet HERE. It is a link to a shared google sheet in "View Only" mode. It shows every golfer and his DraftKings salary, Vegas odds, Official World Golf Ranking, raw stats, course history, current form, tournament past 4 years results(if applicable) and correlated stats. I also have weighted stats and weighted overall rankings. If you want to make your own model with the sheet go to "File" at the top and "Make a Copy". If you need help please reach out to me on Twitter or in the DFSR chatroom on Wednesday morning and evening.

 

Puerto Rico Open

With no daily fantasy going on for the World Golf Championship Match Play event, we are left with the Puerto Rico Open. Don't get me wrong, I would love to be there as the course and area is absolutely beautiful but the field makes me want to vomit. Each week I track the Official World Golf Ranking of each player and then average that out to get a feel for the field strength. On a normal week with at least a few of the top players, we see an average in the 200's and the WGC events usually in the 80's or 90's. This week, however, the average is 564! That's right, with 64 of the Top 70 players teeing it up at the Match Play event we are left with just seven of the Top 100 players in the world. It is by far the worst field of the season but there are DraftKings contests and hey, what better do we have to do for four days this weekend?

Speaking of those DraftKings contests, they were drastically reduced this week, like they were last year so be sure to get in and reserve your seats early. You can always tinker with those lineups leading up to lineup lock on Wednesday at 6:00 a.m. bright and early. Also, don't forget to get in on those Milli Maker satellites as the season's first Major Championship is just two weeks away.

 

The Course

Coco Beach Golf & Country Club
Par 72 - 7,506 Yards
Greens - Paspalum

 

*Click to enlarge*

The course lines the ocean with a third of the holes extending out onto a peninsula. Being an ocean side course, it's biggest defense is the wind which plays a huge role in the winning score from year to year. The variance has been higher than any course I can remember with winning scores over the last five years being -12(Finau), -7(Cejka), -21(Hadley), -20(Brown), -16(McNeil). This year should lean more towards the low scores we have seen as early reports show winds in the 8-10 mph range on average. Looking at the precipitation forecast, we do see a chance of rain although it doesn't appear to be much. I will continue to monitor this and update any big changes on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9) or in the comments section below.

The big thing that stands out when looking at the scorecard is that all four Par 3's are once again 200+ yards. I couldn't find the course data for last year but have the 2015 and 2014 results on my sheet which capture a big variance. The 2015 event was the extremely windy year where Cejka won with a -7 score and 2014 was the Hadley win with a -21 score. Par 3 scoring was right between 14-15% both years. What stood out was the low scoring year(2014) seen almost 4% more birdies on the Par 5's. The wind affected the 15th and 18th holes the most as they both saw 40 fewer birdies in 2015 than in 2014.

The greens are Paspalum which isn't the most common. It was used at the Rio course for the Olympics last year and has been a fixture at the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island since 2003. The best part about Paspalum(in my google research sessions) is that it drains well which is nice with the amount of rain they get along the Ocean and in the jungle. The greens should run a little slower than Bermuda or Poa and McIlroy was quoted in 2012, when he won the PGA Championship at the Ocean Course, as saying the greens really grab the ball allowing players to be aggressive with chip shots and putts. The slower nature of the greens definitely levels out the playing field when looking at putting stats.

 

 

The Stats & Fantasy Approach

I will be building my model this week off a mix of Par 5 scoring, Par 4 scoring, BoB% and Ball Striking 2.0(Strokes Gained Off the Tee + Approach). With the projected wet conditions, I will also be looking at Driving Distance. With all three par 3's over 200 yards and six of the Par 4's over 450 yards, it will also be wise to looking closely at approaches from 175-200 and 200+ yards.

This is one of those weeks where we are going to have to eat some chalk as the weak field is going to force a ton of ownership near the top of the field. Like I mentioned above, there is only seven of the top 10 and 36 of the top 250 players in the world. The talent drops off pretty quick. It is taylor made for stars and scrubs multiple lineup construction with no player exceeding $11K this week on DraftKings. I will be stacking two of the top guys together and building around them with a mix of my favorite values from the bottom tiers. Let's dig in and take a look.

 

For a feel of where ownership is going to be this week, be sure to head over to FanSharSports where they track all the social media mentions of all players throughout the week. They then quantify this data and rank each player in their "Most Tagged List". They have also added Salary Differential, Subject Tags and Projections. All the tools you need to help you become a better daily fantasy golf player.

 

High End Targets ($9,000+)

Graham DeLaet
World Golf Ranking (#135)
Vegas Odds (18/1)
Draftkings ($10,600)
FanDuel ($9,400)

It's been a great start to the season for #TeamCanada on the PGA Tour and although he has yet win, DeLaeat has been knocking on the door. Before his missed cut last week, he had tallied four straight Top 25's including two Top 10 finishes. The Weyburn, Saskatchewan native also returns to Puerto Rico with excellent course history. He has played here four times and has finished inside the Top 25 each time including a T11 last season. He ranks #1 in my overall model due to his form and course history plus his 3rd rank in my stats model. He ranks 3rd in the field in SG: OTT + APP, 3rd in SG: Putting, 9th in Driving Distance, 10th in both GIR from 175-200 and 200+ yards, 7th in BoB% and 5th in overall scoring average. I am also thinking he will be the lowest owned of the $10K+ guys on DraftKings due to his missed cut last week.

 

 

Luke List
World Golf Ranking (#169)
Vegas Odds (25/1)
Draftkings ($9,900)
FanDuel ($8,600)

I mentioned eating the chalk this week in a weaker field event and it starts with Luke List. Looking at FanShareSports most tagged list on Tuesday, List is right at the top and for good reason. He comes at a discount when looking at the field and was near elite during the wrap around portion of the season. In five tournaments to close out 2016, List had finishes of T26, T2, T15, T7, and T13. He bombs it 300+ yards and during that early part of the season, he was hitting greens in regulation at a very high clip. He finished T50 in his first trip to Coco Beach back in 2013 and improved big time with a T15 last season. He is going to be high owned but fits everything we are looking for this week. Differentiate your lineups in other areas and roll with List in all formats.

 

 

Matt Jones
World Golf Ranking (#182)
Vegas Odds (28/1)
Draftkings ($9,300)
FanDuel ($5,700)

It's been a bit of an odd start to the season for Jones who missed two of three cuts in the weaker field wrap around season but comes into this week with a T36 at the WMPO and a T23 at Pebble Beach. Like most players, his salary most likely makes you gag but looking at my cheatsheet he surprisingly ranks fifth. He missed the cut here in Puerto Rico on his last trip in 2014 but had back to back Top 15's the two years prior. His stats are highlighted by a 4th rank in SG: OTT, 2nd in SG: Putting, 12th in Driving Distance, 3th in Par 4 scoring, 6th in Par 5 scoring, 11th in BoB% and 4th in Bogey Avoidance. That is the recipe I am looking for. He has also barely been mentioned and could be a low owned tournament option to build around with winning upside. He is also a tremendous value on FanDuel under $6K.

 

 

 

Also Consider: Peter Uihlein(Fits the Off the Tee + Approach profile)

 

 

Mid Tier Targets ($7,000 - $8,900)

Brandon Hagy
World Golf Ranking (#294)
Vegas Odds (45/1)
Draftkings ($8,300)
FanDuel ($5,400)

He is the only golfer outside the top tier ranked inside my overall Top 5 this week and for good reason. Distance? Check. Par 4 & 5 Scoring? Check. Form? Check. Course History? Check. He is definitely not safe for cash games in the high $8K range on DK but makes an excellent high upside GPP play. He finished 16th here back in 2015 and comes into this event with three straight Top 35 finishes including a very impressive Honda Classic where he shot an opening round 67 and Saturday 64.

 

 

 

Nick Taylor
World Golf Ranking (#328)
Vegas Odds (66/1)
Draftkings ($7,200)
FanDuel ($6,200)

Let's throw in a little more Canadian talent this week and roll with Nick Taylor. He comes back to Puerto Rico after a very impressive Top 5 finish last season and while he hasn't shown winning upside yet this season, he has made nine cuts in 12 events with three Top 25 finishes. The only part of his game statistically that stands out is his Par 5 scoring where he ranks fourth in the field this week when looking at the sheet. He makes a great play in all formats, eh?

 

 

Martin Flores
World Golf Ranking (#237)
Vegas Odds (80/1)
Draftkings ($6,800)
FanDuel ($5,700)

Technically he fits into the bottom tier but I didn't realize this until after the write-up and I don't feel like moving him. It's my article, I will do what I want. LOL. Flores fits right into my model this week as he has a nice balance of course history, form and stats. He has made the cut here four out of five times including back to back Top 20 finishes in 2014 and 2015 which shows he can compete here no matter the weather. He ranks seventh in SG: Approach, 30th in SG: OTT + APP, 2nd in GIR, 8th in GIT from 200+ yards and 7th in par 4 scoring. He fits perfectly into that stars and scrubs lineup construction this week.

Low End Target (Min Price - $6,900)

Jonathan Byrd
World Golf Ranking (#525)
Vegas Odds (100/1)
Draftkings ($6,200)
FanDuel ($5,500)

After a rough start to 2017, Byrd is coming off a T5 on Web.com Tour and made two of three cuts in the wrap around portion fo the PGA Tour. Not only that, he comes back to Puerto Rico with some nice course history. He has made all four cuts here in his career including three Top 20's and two Top 15 finishes. He is an excellent stars and scrubs option for tournaments this week.

 

 

Also Consider:  Zac Blair(GPP)

 

 

 

If you have any questions leading up to lineup lock Thursday morning you can reach me in a variety of ways. Leave a Q below in the comment section and I will get you an answer. You can hit me up in the new chatroom here at DFSR(It's crazy busy with NBA/NHL talk so try and private message me for specific PGA Q's. I am also always available on Twitter(@jager_bombs9). Good luck this week!

 

**Note on Stats - The stats I refer to in this article are from my own spreadsheet/cheatsheet and weigh both 2017 and 2016 stats. If you have any questions about the cheatsheet please contact me on Twitter(@Jager_Boms9).**

 

 

Puerto Rico Open Update Thread

**Weather Update**

 

 

 

 

 

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.