Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/9/17

Sunday Baseball! FanDuel and DraftKings have the first 9 games on the main slate, with the exception of Coors Field. They are both also offering all-day states, where all 15 games are included. The day is an interesting one, with some elite pitchers and some gas cans. Watch out for weather. We have seen a few games already get postponed this season and you do have to be careful during this time of the year. Everything looks good as I write this, but you never know. Make sure to comment below or join the live chat in the bottom right hand of the screen. You can also find me on Twitter @VarneyDFS. Thanks and good luck on this fine Sunday!

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Everyone in Coors Field is in play. With an 11 over/under, it has the highest total on the day. Maeda is a strong arm, but relies on off-speed movement, which he won't get much of. Tyler Anderson is good against lefties but will get taken advantage of by right-handers. Everyone is extremely expensive on Draftkings, so you can definitely fade in tournaments.

Pitcher

I will be focusing on the main slate that FD and DK are offering. Johnny Cueto is obviously a fantastic play against the Padres. He is the top pitcher on all-day slates in cash games.

Stephen Strasburg FD 9600 DK 10600
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @PHI
FD - 38.18 DK - 0

Strasburg has already pitched this season, tossing 7 innings of pretty average stuff. He gave up 2 runs only struck out 3, which is surprising for a guy who has held a 10-12 K/9 over his career. I'm willing to trust the sample size here and not bet that Strasburg is now pitching to contact. The strikeouts will come and they will definitely come against the Phillies. The Phillies scored enough runs for a few weeks last night and will hopefully be happy getting shut down tonight. Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph, Cameron Rupp, and Jeremy Hellickson all strikeout a ton. They hold 28%+ K rates and Strasburg is one of the top K pitchers in the league. Strasburg was good against both sides of the plate in 2016, finishing with a .277 combined wOBA. Strasburg has consistently underperformed his peripherals(ERA vs xFIP), which speaks to either a trend of predictability or a crazy run of bad luck. He still performs at an elite level and had plenty of starts last year where he destroyed his price tag. Dusty Baker is known as a guy who will push pitchers to their limits but did pull Strasburg at a clean 85 pitches. This is slightly worrisome, so I would keep an eye out for any news today. Strasburg should consistently see a higher pitch count and my guess would be around 95. I don't think Baker pulls him early if he's cruising and the game is at all close.

Gerrit Cole FD 8300 DK 8100
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @PIT
FD - 33.99 DK - 22.23

Cole has seen his price come down after his rough start against the Red Sox. Personally, I couldn't care less about how he did against the Red Sox. He was facing a top 3 lineup in one of the best hitting ballparks in the league. Cole is an elite arm and his price is simply too low. The Braves were a team that didn't strikeout against righties last year, but I don't think that hold anymore. With the addition of Matt Kemp, Dansby Swanson, and Brandon Phillips, you will begin to see more K's. Cole was atrocious against lefties last year. At least on the surface, he was. When you dig a little deeper, it's pretty clear what's going on. He definitely is worse against left-handers, but not to the degree his wOBA shows. Lefties held a .419 BABIP against Cole in 2016, which is just ridiculous. That number will 100% come down this season and with that, his numbers will go up. PNC Park is extremely spacious and I don't see the Braves doing too well here. Cole is a safe option on both sites at a fair price.

Jake Arrieta FD 10400 DK 9600
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @MIL
FD - 36.59 DK - 24

Arrieta isn't one of the top FP/$ pitchers of the day, but he definitely has the upside to crush everyone. We all know Strasburg is one of the more variant pitchers in the league and with the pitch count already a concern, Arrieta could be a very interesting tournament pivot. While the Brewers have added some strong lefties, they're still weak against righties as a whole. Braun (GTD), Aguilar, Santana, Broxton, Bandy, and Davies all strike out a lot against righties and also don't offer much upside in return. Braun was scratched yesterday with back tightness, so this lineup could be very weak. Arrieta pitched well against the Cardinals in his 1st outing, going 6 scoreless with 6 K's and a W. Maddon will push Arrieta to 100 pitches and Arrieta has the arm to perform well past that mark. Arrieta has held elite numbers for 2 years now and with peripherals that back it up, I don't expect any slip this year. He did struggle for a couple weeks last year, but tightened his changeup and bounced back well. Miller Park is pretty good for righties, but is a spot lefties can have trouble with. Arrieta is way too cheap on DraftKings and I'm a big fan of him in cash games over there, as well as tournaments on both sites.

Late - Johnny Cueto, Noah Syndergaard

Catcher

Welington Castillo FD 2700 DK 3600
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @BAL
FD - 8.29 DK - 6.14

Sabathia had a bounce-back season in 2016, but is still nothing great at this point. He's a 4/5 starter with little upside and a whole lot of downside. Giving up 18 homers to righties 2016 and 25 in '15, Sabathia has a big problem keeping his pitches down. In Camden Yards, there is a potential for this to get ugly. Though Sabathia only allowed a .315 wOBA to righties, an xFIP of 4.37 tells a different story. With a 30% hard contact rate and a 23% line drive rate, righties should start destroying Sabathia as his speed and control quickly diminish. Castillo has been in Arizona for the past few years, where he saw the 2nd best hitting ballpark in baseball. Fortunately for him, he doesn't see much of a downgrade with Camden Yards. Castillo hit lefties extremely well in 2016, finishing with a .367 wOBA. The weird one is the 53% hard contact rate against lefties, which is just stupid. Giancarlo Stanton is the only other guy to put up that type of number on a consistent basis. While I highly doubt he holds it up that high this season, he is obviously a great hitter against lefties. Castillo is one swing away from a lot of seperation at the catcher position.
Victor Martinez FD 2800 DK 3300
Opponent - BOS (Porcello) Park - @DET
FD - 8.67 DK - 6.4

I know, Rick Porcello is the reigning Cy Young winner. While he's definitely far from the best pitcher in the AL, he is good. he plays for a strong team and gets a ton of run support as well, which has inflated everyone's opinion. Chris Archer went 3-9 at home with a 2.17 ERA in 2016. If Porcello had the luck of Chris Archer, he wouldn't have been on the ballot. Wins are a joke and are not accurate ways to show a pitcher's effectiveness. While Porcello is good, so is Victor Martinez. Keep in mind, this is a FD only play. Martinez is a 1B on DK and there's no way I play him there. On FD however, catcher is rather barren. Martinez is sitting at just $2800, which is just too cheap for the quality of hitter. Martinez is dominant against right-handers for about 10 seasons now and I don't expect him to stop now. Even with the reigning Cy Young on the mound, the Tigers should be able to get on-base and give Martinez a chance to drive in runs. He's one of the best pure hitters in the AL and will do damage to Porcello with runners on. With all of this being said. Martinez is only in play because of the position. He's in a tough spot, just not as tough as the rest of the position.

Sandy Leon FD 2500 DK 2500
Opponent - DET (Norris) Park - @DET
FD - 1.78 DK - 0

I don't know, maybe he is Babe Ruth. Maybe he's a horrible hitter who has been extremely lucky. I'm guessing it's somewhere between the two. Leon definitely benefited from luck in 2016, finishing with a .390 BABIP, which is insane, let alone for a catcher with no speed. Leon should have a BABIP around .300, which is where most catchers stand. On the contrary, he had a 35% hard contact rate, so he can hit the ball. By the way, a high hard contact rate does increase BABIP, but nowhere near that much. While I'm not sure Leon is necessary on FanDuel, he is a little cheap on DK. With some nice pitching options up top, you might want to save in a few spots. Catcher is definitely the weakest position on the slate and it's not a horrible idea to punt. His opponent, Daniel Norris, is a youngster that gave up a .341 wOBA to righties last season. Leon is a switch-hitter and rested yesterday, so there are no worries about him getting pinch hit for.

Late - Buster Posey, Yasmani Grandal, Josh Phegley

First Base

Matt Adams FD 2400 DK 3000
Opponent - CIN (Feldman) Park - @STL
FD - 8.77 DK - 6.46

Matt Adams is way too cheap for this match-up. While FanDuel has some wonky price tags right now, Draftkings has been better tight. He's only $3k over there and makes for a tremendous cash game option. We really don't know what Adams will be just yet but we know he will be able to hit righties. He lost nearly 40 pounds, but supposedly was able to hold on to his power. While I find that somewhat tough to believe, he's never had more than 17 homers anyway. he was just a huge guy that was aiming for the gaps. He has held a .341 wOBA against righties since 2015 and showed improvement last year. Scott Feldman has found his way on the Reds. While I really want to know who is getting paid to sign guys like this, let's not focus on that. Feldman is a 34-year-old gas can that is absolutely atrocious against lefties. He held a .377 wOBA in 2016 and gave up 4 homers to righties in less than 30 innings. While Busch Stadium isn't the best power park, we're not looking for that. Adams should be able to get on base a couple times and hopefully someone will be in scoring position when he gets up. The Cardinals are a team I will have a ton of exposure to in cash games. I don't see them flopping against Scott Feldman.

Eric Thames FD 2500 DK 3500
Opponent - CHC (Arrieta) Park - @MIL
FD - 9.25 DK - 0

This is a pure FD price play. On DraftKings, you can probably ignore Thames. He's facing one of the best pitchers in the league and while he is in a somewhat favorable spot, you can find better for the price. On FanDuel, you have to take a look at $2500. Thames is technically a rookie, but not really. he has been playing in the Korean league for a few years now and there pitching is supposedly at the AAA level, with a few MLB worthy guys. The Brewers acquired Thames with the thought of home runs. With Chris Carter leaving a couple seasons ago, there has been a power gap in this lineup. He gives them a strong lefty bat, which looks nice next to Braun, who rakes from the right side. With that being said, he's facing Jake Arrieta. Arrieta is obviously great and a really tough guy to face. He's also a guy who relies on hitting spots and scouting reports. Without much to go on for Thames, it could be interesting if he hits a spot well that regular lefties don't. Arrieta also gave up a .315 wOBA to lefties in 2016, which is a little better than league average. He's a good price play on FanDuel and should be pretty low-owned against Arrieta.

Chris Carter FD 2600 DK 4400
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @BAL
FD - 9.85 DK - 7.04

Tournaments only. With Greg Bird not returning until Monday, Carter will be in the lineup today. He could either go 0-for-4 with 4 strikeouts or 2-for-4 with 2 homers and 2 strikeouts. While Carter isn't a great pure hitter, he is insanely strong and almost anything he hits in the air is gone. It's not like he's a crapshoot power hitter either. He put up 41 homers last year and ended up with a .361 wOBA against lefties. In Camden Yards, Carter has a ton of upside. Wade Miley is one of my favorite pitchers to target with righties, as he gave up a .360 wOBA in 2016 to go along with 22 homers in 160 innings. He has a huge problem with the home run ball and Carter is definitely one to take advantage. He's cheap on FanDuel and makes for a fantastic punt in tournaments. I guess I don't hate him in cash either, but do prefer Thames and Adams. On DraftKings, I hate to say I like him in tournaments. He will be VERY low-owned, and rightfully so. If he hits 2 homers, you won't care about the price. Even in tournaments, be careful with the price. You may want to limit it to just Brewers stacks. I'm gonna take Carter as my cheap homer pick of the day.

Late - Mike Napoli, Ryon Healy, Brandon Belt

Second Base

Matt Carpenter FD 3000 DK 4100
Opponent - CIN (Feldman) Park - @STL
FD - 10.13 DK - 7.38

Believe it or not, Carpenter is one of the purest left-handed hitters in the game, if not top 2.He doesn't have the flash of a Harper or Rizzo and he won't put up the same numbers, but you better bet he will have a similar impact on the Cardinals. Every single at-bat is stressful when facing Carpenter and if you're a righty, it likely won't end well. In 2016, Carpenter sported a .386 wOBA vs righties and backed that up with a nice little 47.2% hard contact rate. Scott Feldman, who we have touched on, has absolutely no chance here. Feldman is a veteran, so he might be wise enough to just walk Carpenter. Feldman has transitioned from his fastball to a cutter as he got older, which is why he went from being bad against righties in 2012 to lefties in 2013-14. Carpenter hits cutters at a .431 wOBA clip. Like I said, everything is setting up for Carpenter. He will be locked into all of my lineups and at his price, is my favorite option on this slate. The Cardinals offense is likely my favorite of the bunch and he's the heart of it all.

Dustin Pedroia FD 3000 DK 3600
Opponent - DET (Norris) Park - @DET
FD - 9.42 DK - 7.24

Another year, another dominant and consistent season from Dustin Pedroia. However, last year was the best e have seen Pedroia since 2011. He hit over .300 and finished with 15 homers. He sported a .360 wOBA against lefties, which was actually a little low considering the peripherals. While Daniel Norris is a big prospect with a lot of promise, he isn't there yet. With an under-developed arsenal, he has struggled against righties. Pedroia is a veteran and should be able to take advantage of the youngster. While Pedroia may not have the same upside as a Carpenter or any of the other elite 2B, he's priced below them and has a similar, if not better floor (outside of Carpenter). The Red Sox righties are an interesting way to go on a slate where no attention will be on such a powerful offense.

Late - Dee Gordon (Syndergaard has big problem with holding runners), Logan Forsythe, Neil Walker

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Shortstop

Aledmys Diaz FD 3100 DK 3900
Opponent - CIN (Feldman) Park - @STL
FD - 9.8 DK - 0

Aledmys Diaz demolished 2 homers yesterday, on his way to a 3-for-6, 4 RBI, 50 fantasy point game. He might not have another game that good for another 5 years. Luckily, he isn't $20k. He's $3.1k on FD and $3.9k, which is very fair. Scott Feldman is "better" against righties, but not good in any sense. He throws a pretty strong cutter and Diaz hits them well, so I'm not concerned about that. Diaz was dominant against righties in 2016, sporting a .393 wOBA. While an elite number like that ay not be expected this year, he should be the epitome of what the Cardinals are. A consistent option that will put up a lot of good at-bats and give opposing pitchers headaches. While Busch Stadium is a tough park, Diaz showed his capabilities just a day ago. He's a safe cash game option with plenty of upside in tournaments. Depending on where Diaz ends up in the lineup, you could see him very high owned. If that's the case, I don't mind fading hi in tournaments. A lot of people will chase the 2 HR's and it means nothing in baseball.

Adam Frazier FD 2100 DK 2800
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @PIT
FD - 7.02 DK - 0

For whatever reason, DraftKings and FanDuel don't want to price up the leadoff hitter for a pretty good offense. Frazier is really good at getting on-base and he has reliable guys to drive him in. Frazier is expected to be a .300 hitter, with crazy speed and great discipline. The Pittsburgh front office has talked this guy as a future piece and someone that can steal 30 bases. His upside is huge against Julio Teheran, who struggles against lefties and is atrocious at holding runners. In 2016, Teheran sported a .325 wOBA against lefties. Due to his dominance against righties (.245 wOBA), he's able to afford the damage from left-handers. Power isn't something to ever consider with Frazier, so the ballpark is only a good thing, if anything at all. Frazier is simply too cheap on both sites and has to be one of the safest options on the day.

Late - Marcus Semien, Francisco Lindor

Third Base

Kris Bryant FD 4100 DK 5000
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.54 DK - 0

Before last night, Kris Bryant was on a "cold streak". Kris Bryant going 0-for-12 to start the season means literally nothing for his future production. You will not win at DFS when you look at a guy and not play him because he has struggled for under a week, let alone a 23-year old that just won a WS and an MVP. Bryant is one of the best players in baseball and the production will continue, as will the ups and downs. Bryant went 3 for 6 last night and connected on 2 solid RBIdoubles, en route to Tommy Milone. The Cubs will look to hand another big L to the Brewers tonight, at the hands of Jake Arrieta and crew. The Brewers will trot out Zach Davies, who isn't a horrible pitcher. He's also not very good, allowing a .330 wOBA in 2016 backed up by solid batted ball rates. His change-up is his best pitch, which Bryant absolutely crushes. He is a pitcher that has trouble with longball and Bryant is quite good at that. Bryant held a .382 wOBA against righties in 2016, to go along with his 25 homers. Miller Park is fantastic for righties and Bryant has a great chance of taking advantage tonight.

Alex Bregman FD 3000 DK 3900
Opponent - KC (Karns) Park - @HOU
FD - 9.97 DK - 0

Bregman hasn't been great to begin the season but he hasn't been as bad as people are making it out to be either. He has made a lot of hard outs and it's only been 4 games, so every out hurts. He will be just fine and is in the middle of an absolutely dominant lineup. Sandwiched between George Springer and Jose Altuve, Bregman should be able to drive runs in and get driven in himself. Nate Karns, a righty, was much worse against right-handers in 2016. He sported an atrocious .375 wOBA that was backed up by peripherals. Bregman was better against righties in 2016, with a .344 wOBA and 6 homers in just 40 games. While the sample size as small, he is very young and should only improve with age. Bregman is cheap enough to play in cash games but does make more sense in tournaments. Miguel Sano and Kris Bryant are still the preferred options.

Miguel Sano FD 3200 DK 3700
Opponent - CHW (Quintana) Park - @CHW
FD - 9.4 DK - 6.76

Jose Quintana isn't a guy we will look to target often. He's quite good and will not get blown up many times over the course of an entire season. With that being said, he still susceptible to the longball. In 2016, he allowed 19 homers to righties in 160 innings, which is .16 more than average. In U.S. Cellular Park, it makes sense. Sano has hit lefties well in his short career, sporting a .352 wOBA with 6 homers in less than 100 at-bats. Sano figures to be one of the best power hitters for the next 10 years and I think he hits 40 this season if he stays healthy. Because of Quintana, I will limit my exposure to Sano to tournaments. He can still hit 2 home runs with a blink of an eye and he will absolutely be low-owned. On DraftKings, he is much cheaper than he should be. At just $3.7k, I would recommend making sure he has a spot in a tournament or two.

Late - Adrian Beltre, Kyle Seager

Outfield

Kyle Schwarber FD 3500 DK 4700
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.75 DK - 0

If you watched last night's Cubs game, you know Schwarber should have had a huge game. He had a few homers go barely foul and a couple hits get robbed. He has been making great contact all season long and the huge numbers will be there. This is a guy who held league-best numbers against righties in 2015, though the sample size wasn't huge. He has a match-up with Zach Davies, who gave up a .330 wOBA to lefties in 2016. FanDuel decided to lower his price tag and he will be in my cash game lineup every time the Cubs face a righty. Every single time. I do think he's one of the best hitters around and will be on the same level as Bryant and Rizzo at the end of the season. He's also hitting lead-off so the opportunity will be there. While some may argue there will be less RBI opportunities from the 1 spot, they should probably remember the team he is on. The Cubs 9 hitter is better than the Brewers 5 hitter. Guys are always on base. Schwarber is safe in cash games on FanDuel at his price and an amazing tournament option on both sites. The Cubs are expensive on DK and make for a great tourney stack. The Brewers have a weak bullpen that's already thin from last night and if Davies gets blown up, it could be a long day.

Matt Holliday FD 3100 DK 4300
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.06 DK - 0
Aaron Judge FD 2200 DK 4100
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @BAL
FD - 1.92 DK - 0

Holliday is a tough one. He hasn't been healthy for a full season since 2013, when he destroyed lefties. He has been good against lefties in the short times he's played since, but it's tough t measure such short sample sizes. I expect him to hit 20 homers this year in Yankee Stadium and even at 37, he has looked great to begin the season. A fresh start for Holliday could mean a lot of things, as the past few seasons have turned the expectations way down. Remember, this is a guy who was once an MVP candidate and the backbone of the Cardinals WS championships. Wade Miley is absolutely atrocious against righties and Holliday can only beat himself today. As for Judge, you should probably pay attention when a guy is $1.9k more expensive on DK. FanDuel has left a big power hitter against Wade Miley at $2200. Take advantage. Judge is a bit of an unknown, but we do know the power is there and there's a reason he has hit so well in the minors. I don't think this is a kid who swings for the fences and connects a couple times a month. He has shown poise in just a few games and I think he looks great at the plate. He is definitely more of a tournament option b nature, but I like him in cash games on FanDuel at that price. Most guys at that price are reliant on getting a single and driven in to hit value. Judge can triple "value" in one swing.

Dexter Fowler FD 3200 DK 4200
Opponent - CIN (Feldman) Park - @STL
FD - 9.81 DK - 7.65

Dexter Fowler will continue manning the leadoff spot for the Cardinals, where he will eventually turn into one of the more productive outfielders around. He will be almost $5k on both sites and still be a guy we consider. Fowler is the ideal leadoff hitter in the modern MLB. He still holds onto the conventional speed and walk rate a leadoff hitter "should" have, but also has legitimate power and extra-base potential. Fowler sported a .360 wOBA against righties in 2016, adding a strong walk and K rate. Scott Feldman is a guy we have looked at plenty and there's nothing else to say. He's an old pitcher that has lost all the funk he never had. Fowler is a guy you can play in cash games around the industry, as I expect the Cardinals to go around at least 5 times in this one, with the potential for 6 on the road. Don't be scared to play Fowler because he hasn't put up 30 fantasy points yet and the guy next to him has. It doesn't matter.

Late - Hunter Pence, Khris Davis, Coors Field

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