Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/16/17

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Pitcher

Jeff Samardzija FD 8600 DK
Opponent - COL (Senzatela) Park - @SF
FD - 33.45 DK - 21.96

On FanDuel, we're looking at 11 pitchers over $8k. We have plenty of options and nobody on this slate will be too highly owned at pitcher. Jeff Samardzija and the Giants will host the Rockies for the final game of the series and try to shut the book on a successful series. Samardzija has already pitched twice this season, hitting 7 and 9 strikeouts in just 12 innings. The Rockies are easily one of the worst teams in the league on the road and all of the numbers back that up. Outside of Coors Field, whole Rockies lineup is much much weaker. "Shark" Samardzija has been better against righties with a .276 wOBA. Against lefties, he held a .331 wOBA in 2016. He supposedly worked on his change-up in the offseason and will look to improve his numbers against lefties in 2017. AT&T Park is a top 3 pitchers ballpark in baseball and Samardzija should be able to contain such a putrid lineup in such a spacious park. Samardzija is a bit too cheap and makes sense in both cash games and tournaments.

Jon Lester FD 10300 DK
Opponent - PIT (Taillon) Park - @CHC
FD - 36.83 DK - 24.19

If you're willing to pay all the way up, Lester may be able to pay it off. Lester, like Samardzija, has already pitched twice this year. He has 14 combined strikeouts and just 2 earned runs in 11 innings. Lester was dominant against both sides of the plate in 2016. He finished with a combined .251 wOBA to go along with a 9.00 K/9 and a 27.4% hard contact rate. The Pirates are a team that is known to have some good hitters against lefties, so this won't  be a cakewalk for Lester. However, he's one of the most talented pitchers in baseball and will be able to hold his own against anyone. If Lester is able to work around Marte and McCutchen, he will find some easy strikeouts in the back of the order. The Cubs should be able to get runs on Jameson Taillon and the win is pretty safe. Lester at Wrigley Field was automatic last year and I have no worries here. Expect another 7-10 strikeouts and 6 or 7 innings. If you want to pay way down, let's take a look at Charlie Morton.

Charlie Morton FD 6400 DK
Opponent - OAK (Cotton) Park - @OAK
FD - 27.78 DK - 18.4

I'm not saying Charlie Morton is great. I'm also not going to sit here and let him be the 4th cheapest pitcher on the slate. He is far from that bad and deserves to be priced around the likes of Colon and Cobb. Morton had one of the highest K rates (9.91) in 2016 on this slate and also sported a .311 combined wOBA. Ths Athletics team is far from elite and has struck out at a 24% rate already on the young season. If you want to pay up at across the position spectrum, Morton is going to easily be your best bet. He is far too cheap on FanDuel and while DraftKings got the memo a little bit, he's still too cheap. Morton is pretty safe against this offense and has plenty of upside with his heightened K/9. In cash games, I wouldn't necessarily go here. There is no game at Coors Field and I would rather have the safety of an elite pitcher in cash games. In tournaments, however, Morton is firmly in play.

Catcher

Derek Norris FD 2400 DK
Opponent - BOS (Pomeranz) Park - @BOS
FD - 8.8 DK - 6.92

Catcher isn't a spot with many ways to go tonight. With Posey on the DL, there are no clear-cut elite catchers to choose from. This has been spreading around the ownership and I expect more of the same today. Derek Norris, who is a notorious lefty killer, will be facing off with Drew Pomeranz. Pomeranz is a guy I'm actually very high on and think he has a great season. He has had some arm issues and the Sox will likely limit his innings early in the season. Even though Pomeranz is good, he has had some struggles against righties. Last year, he allowed 20 homers to righties in 140 innings. The upside is there for Norris, who sported a .354 wOBA against lefties in his last full season. This ballpark is a monstrous upgrade for Norris and you have to think at least 1 of these rays bats lines one over the green monster. Norris is at a position that lacks depth and offers a ton of upside at a more than reasonable price.

Victor Martinez FD 2500 DK
Opponent - CLE (Carrasco) Park - @CLE
FD - 8.12 DK - 5.99

TH is the obligatory Victor Martinez on FanDuel at catcher suggestion. Because catcher is so rough, there's merit to getting the most talented guy at the position for cheap. While V-Mart and the Tigers are facing Carrasco, he hit's 4th behind Miguel Cabrera. I'm not going to sit here and say he has a good numbers match-up with Carrasco. Carrasco is an elite arm and V-Mart will swing and miss if he has his stuff working. On the other hand, Martinez will take advantage of any mistake. He is an elite hitter still and will jump on any missed location an elite pitchers hits. Martinez will also be hitting form the left side, where he has been much better in terms of both power and XBH. He's moved down to $2500 on FanDuel and he might just be the play. Even if he does disappoint, he has more built in upside than anyone at the position, albeit against Carrasco.

First Base

Edwin Encarnacion FD 3300 DK
Opponent - DET (Boyd) Park - @CLE
FD - 10.6 DK - 7.6
Carlos Santana FD 3400 DK
Opponent - DET (Boyd) Park - @CLE
FD - 10.97 DK - 8.03

This duo is one that has been in play a lot to begin the season. They have both hit pretty well, though Encarnacion will see more power as the year moves on. This match-up with Matt Boyd is one where the Indians should take huge advantage. Boyd is simply bad against righties. In 2016, he sported a .341 wOBA to cover the 15 home runs allowed in just 79 innings. At nearly 2 HR/9 against righties, you can put him in the upper tier of HR prone. Progressive Field is a lot friendlier to righties than it is lefties and actually ranked in the top 15 in 2016 for extra base hits from the right side. Boyd is an HR-prone southpaw with a whole lot to fix. Encarnacion and Santana are both great hitters against righties, though Santana loses in power what he picks up in contact from the right side. Encarnacion still has a bit more power, so I would go there in tourneys and Santana in cash. We can target Boyd here and stack the Indians, even though it's not my favorite stack of Easter Sunday.

Eric Thames FD 2800 DK
Opponent - CIN (Romano) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.82 DK - 0

Sal Romano will make his first start ever today. While most guys come up and are big unknowns, I am somewhat familiar with Romano. He is a guy who can touch 100 MPH on his fastball, but profiled more as a setup man or closer. He's a bit erratic and can wear down in just a few innings. The Reds have been forced to try him out as the number 5 and if it doesn't work out, you can find him in the bullpen where he will be very productive. In the rotation, he will struggle. He's not an experienced pitcher and has been hit well by AA talent. Moving to the big leagues, this Brewers offense will give him a whirl. Eric Thames has been extremely good at 1st and FanDuel is still barely taking notice. At just $2800, you have to love him in cash games. The upside is as high as anyone and I love the floor as well in the Great American Ballpark against a guy who will likely last 4 to 5 innings of rough ball.

Second Base

Matt Carpenter FD 3100 DK
Opponent - NYY (Pineda) Park - @NYY
FD - 9.07 DK - 6.61

Michael Pineda, the king of variance. After struggling to get out of the 1st inning against the Rays in his first start, he bounced back and went 7 2/3 hitless against the same team just a week later. We have absolutely no idea how he will pitch today and neither does he. With that being said, Matt Carpenter is a guy I take even with Pineda at his best, especially in Yankee Stadium. Carpenter is such an amazing hitter and for him to be priced here is simply criminal. Carpenter sported a .386 wOBA against righties in 2016 followed up with a 40% hard contact rate and a 143 wRC+. Pineda held a .348 wOBA against lefties in 2016 and there are no signs pointing to any misfortune. Carpenter is in a prime spot today and I will make sure to have a lot of exposure. Carpenter should be able to read Pineda pretty well and I'm sure he's cognizant of the short wall in right. Hopefully, he can take advantage and go yard.

Dustin Pedroia FD 3200 DK
Opponent - TB (Cobb) Park - @BOS
FD - 9.52 DK - 7.33

Second base is one of my favorite positions on the board and I absolutely love where Dustin Pedroia fits in here. As a guy who hits righties just as well as lefties, Pedroia is a prime cash game play. He is never at a disadvantage and can always have the edge in an at-bat. Cobb hasn't pitched over 50 innings since 2014, when he did hold solid numbers against right-handed batters (.298 wOBA). He isn't the same guy as he was back then and has already given up 5 runs in the first 2 starts. Cobb may not be as bad as the general public thinks he is but he's also not as good as he can be. Pedroia and these right-handed Red Sox bats have the potential to do damage in Fenway. If Cobb doesn't have his change-up working, this is a stack that could go off with ease. As for Pedroia, he's a fine 1 off in both cash and tournaments. He hits for base knocks and is one of the best situational bats in the game.

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Shortstop

Wilmer Difo FD 2200 DK
Opponent - PHI (Eickhoff) Park - @WSH
FD - 7.78 DK - 0

If you want to pay up for Francisco Lindor at SS, fine. He's in a solid match-up and has plenty of upside in that spot. Personally, I would rather punt for Wilmer Difo and spend that money elsewhere. Difo should be hitting 6th or 7th in one of the best lineups in baseball. He faces off with the Phillies and Jerad Eickhoff tonight, who has always struggled against left-handers. Difo is a switch hitter with a ton of speed and a bat that will begin to come around. Eickhoff sported a .347 wOBA against lefties in 2016, so he can easily be taken advantage of. Difo is close to the minimum on both sites and makes for a great cash game punt at SS. In tournaments, there are plenty of other ways to go. Let's look at Adam Frazier, who may be ignored and has all the upside in the world.

Adam Frazier FD 2100 DK
Opponent - CHC (Lester) Park - @CHC
FD - 6.97 DK - 0

Adam Frazier could definitely have some trouble getting on-base. He's a lefty facing off with a fully healthy Jon Lester. Lester is one of the best arms in the league against lefties in terms of both strikeouts and efficiency. With that being said, there is a ridiculous amount of upside to be had here. If Frazier is able to find a way on-base, he is a lock for a steal and probably two. If you don't watch much MLB, Jon Lester can't hold runners. Not like "he can't hold runners" in jest, he really CANNOT throw to 1st base. Frazier is a big speed asset with Gregory Polanco on the shelf and you can expect the Pirates to continue leaning on him. With most people on Wilmer Difo, Frazier gives you just as much upside at the same price and a much lower ownership. In cash games, I'll probably stick with Difo. He's cheap and in a very nice offensive situation against Eickhoff.

Jorge Polanco FD 2500 DK
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @MIN
FD - 7.93 DK - 6.32

Jorge Polanco and Twins get the weekly honor of taking on James Shields. Shields has been a huge mirage this season. Having 2 decent starts or at least 2 starts that ended up well, some may be done picking on him. In reality, he hs been very very lucky in the last 2 games. Holding a 6.49 xFIP and a .077 BABIP, Shields has some of the worst regression numbers I have ever seen. A regular BABIP sits around .310 and the best groundball pitchers in the game are at .280. Shields is a career .321 BABIP pitcher, so you can expect some severe issues very soon. The Twins have a pretty nice lineup and they should be able to do damage. Jorge Polanco will hit behind the manpower and should have some opportunities to drive in runs. He hits well from both sides of the plate and is very versatile in the box. Polanco makes sense at SS if you want to target Shields and the Twins stack.

Third Base

Miguel Sano FD 3600 DK
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.16 DK - 7.31

I love Miguel Sano tonight. If you have been watching the Twins games lately, you know why. Sano has been destroying the seams on every ball he touches recently and I am so excited to see what happened against James Shields. Shields is the perfect pitcher for Sano. A righty with a high arm angle that pitches pretty slow and induces flyballs. Sano is easily my pick for HR of the day and I expect him to have a monstrous vegas HR prop. Sano is better against righties in terms of power in both of his MLB seasons. Shield son the other hand, is atrocious against everyone. Against righties, in particular, he sported a .384 wOBA in 2016, allowing 24 homers in just 90 innings. Wow. If this wasn't a guy who was formerly an all-star, he would be long gone from the league. He has no putaway pitch and relies on a big strike zone for success. In the MLB, you need to be a lot better than that and it's clear that Shields is not.

Evan Longoria FD 3300 DK
Opponent - BOS (Pomeranz) Park - @BOS
FD - 9.68 DK - 7.08

Look, third base is bad. For a position that usually has an excess of options, today is ugly. Longoria is our top option here against Drew Pomeranz and the Sox. While Pomeranz is a good pitcher against righties, he gives up the longball, which is a tough issue to have whilst pitching in Fenway, The green monster is an elevated line drive away from giving Longoria a huge night, which would be a flyout in Tropicana. Longoria is a notorious lefty killer and while he hasn't been dominant over the last year, his .271 BABIP last season suggests some progression. While there aren't many good options sat 3B, there are plenty of big names that should garner ownership. I think Longo goes around 10% owned and I love him in all formats. Pomeranz isn't a guy I love to target but he will rarely go unharmed and I'm not looking to stack against him at all.

Outfield

Kyle Schwarber FD 3400 DK
Opponent - PIT (Taillon) Park - @CHC
FD - 11.38 DK - 0

Kyle Schwarber has been doing Kyle Schwarber things. With hits and RBI's in 3 straight, Schwarber has constantly produced against a solid pitching staff. Schwarber is one of the best hitters in the outfield on this slate and is priced nowhere near that level. He is far too cheap and I will have a ton of exposure in all formats. Schwarber is a guy who has sported a 4.10+ wOBA against right-handers when healthy and he looks 100% right now. Taillon is a big prospect and not a guy I will target a lot. However, he's struggled against lefties and Schwarber will be willing to help the cause. Wrigley is a great park for Schwarber as he spreads the ball to all fields. Hitting leadoff, there may not be many safer options on the board than Kyle Schwarber.

Max Kepler FD 3100 DK
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @MIN
FD - 7.95 DK - 6.04

I am going to continue to target James Shields until he has no job. Sitting with a .077 BABIP, the world is about to fall on his head. The Twins could very easily be the team that finally catches up with Shields. At the very least, expect a few runs out of this team. Both Kepler and Sano are seeing the ball well and they are one of the most lethal power offenses in baseball when that's the case. Kepler hit 15 homers in 100 games against righties in 2016, finishing with a solid .335 wOBA. Kepler is much better against righties and hit 80% of his homers in Target Field. James Shields is going to give up at least a homer in this game and Kepler would be my 2nd choice behind Sano. I am really hoping people will stop targeting James Shields, as he's the same atrocious pitcher that we should be stacking against.

Scott Schebler FD 2900 DK
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @CIN
FD - 8.76 DK - 0
Billy Hamilton FD 3500 DK
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @CIN
FD - 8.09 DK - 8.32

We have 2 different guys with 2 very different games here. Billy Hamilton, the tournament option, is one of my favorite plays on this slate. First things first, let's just establish a couple things. 1, Wily Peralta is not good. He will have a few quality starts here and there and we will just have to eat crow on those few occasions. he will usually give up 3 or 4 runs and allow whatever to go on the basepaths. He is one of the worst pitchers in the league at holding runners and his backstop isn't much better. Hamilton will be stealing if he gets on and will be safe. Put it in the books. As for Schebler, he's a cheap OF'er with a lot of upside as he showed just yesterday. Wily Peralta has HR issues and Schebler makes sense at a fair price around the industry. Great American Ballpark is a huge upgrade for hitters, though Billy Hamilton couldn't care less. All in all, Hamilton is an elite tournament option and Schebler is a guy I like across the board as a safe play with a bit of a ceiling.

 

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