Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Jerry Vanderwoude

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/13/17

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Chris SaleChris Sale FD 11800 DK 13100
Opponent - TB (Snell) Park - @BOS
FD - 48.99 DK - 32.52
The Red Sox will send Chris Sale to the mound for today's game with the Rays. Perhaps you've heard of him? Sale has had an extremely successful start to the 2017 season, rocking the best SIERA in the majors through the first month and change (2.20) and his 12.72 K/9 is the second best behind Danny Salazar. The Rays meanwhile are about as averge at the plate as you'll find against left handed pitchers, with a .308 wOBA and a 97 wRC+, but when it comes to the money shot, we find they strike out a whopping 26.7% of the time against southpaws, more than any team in baseball. That right there, along with Boston being nearly a 2 run favorite for the win against Blake Snell tells us all we need to know. Sure, Sale is going to eat up a hefty amount of your salary on both sites, but the returns should more than make up for it as the projection system sees him as the raw points total leader on the day and among the top point per dollar plays.

Luis SeverinoLuis Severino FD 9100 DK 9100
Opponent - HOU (Fiers) Park - @NYY
FD - 31.85 DK - 21.01
So you say you just can't spend up for Sale at the starting pitcher spot? Then let me introduce you to Luis Severino. For less than 10K you get a right handed arm that has been excellent to start the season, striking out 10.21 batters per 9 while maintaining a 3.40 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 45/7 K/BB ratio through 39.2 innings. The match up isn't quite as favorable though as the Astros only strike out 18.3% of the time against right handed pitching and are rocking a .347 team wOBA against the split, the fourth best in the majors. For safety purposes I'll stick with Sale in cash games, but Severino will definitely get some tournament love with the potential upsdie, and allowance for some better bats.

Trevor CahillTrevor Cahill FD 8100 DK 9300
Opponent - CHW (Covey) Park - @CHW
FD - 29.2 DK - 19.5
There's not a whole lot to be excited about this season if you're a Padres fan, but Trevor Cahill has provided some light on what looks to be a bleak season. Through 5.1 against the Rangers on Monday Cahill picked up the win holding Texas scoreless on a single hit while striking out 7. It was the third straight outing this year where Cahill has fanned 7 or more batters and his second straight scoreless outing. Cahill has won three of his last 4 starts and today he takes on the White Sox who K 24% of the time against right handed pitching with a .321 team wOBA. There is some concern with Cahill, primarily in the control department (16 walks in 35.1 innings) and second being the actual innings pitched. Through six starts he's only made it out of the 5th inning twice. Cahill is a serviceable pitcher in a decent match up, and with most of the quality starters (see the two gentlemen above) throwing on the early slate, Cahill is a fine play for cash on the night slate which also allows for some Coors action in your bats.



Gary SanchezGary Sanchez FD 3500 DK 4600
Opponent - HOU (Fiers) Park - @NYY
FD - 11.87 DK - 9.2
It's been a week now since Gary Sanchez has returned from the DL after missing most of April with a bicep strain. He went hitless at the plate in the first game back against the Cubs, but since then he has gone 8-18 with 4 walks. In 49 2017 plate appearances coming in to the weekend series with Houston, Sanchez is sporting a .345 wOBA, a 120 wRC+, with a .262/.367/.405 slash line. He's going to cost you more at a position where we tend to look for our value, but that's due to the fact he hits in the top of the Yanks order and the safety his offensive lines suggest coupled with the added plate appearances he stands to see more than makes up for it.

Jonathan LucroyJonathan Lucroy FD 2900 DK 3900
Opponent - OAK (Gray) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.22 DK - 7.92
Jonathan Lucroy's 2017 campaign isn't off to the start we would hope to see from him, but there are signs that things are turning around for him. He's currently 1-2 against Jesse Hahn in Friday night's contest with Oakland, and in his last 4 games leading into the weekend series, he's 7-15 with 2 doubles and a walk. This means we should be seeing that .298 wOBA continue to climb until it's more in line with the .340 career number he's posting. He should be able to conitnue on his hot streak tonight as Oakland throws Sonny Gray out to the hill. While Gray sports a career 3.43 ERA and 3.63 xFIP, he's shown serious regression since the start of last season. Since 2016 his ERA sits at 5.59 through 24 starts. If Lucroy is batting cleanup or better he's a total bargain and makes for a great value play behind the plate.

First Base

Edwin EncarnacionEdwin Encarnacion FD 3500 DK 4600
Opponent - MIN (Berrios) Park - @CLE
FD - 11.62 DK - 8.7
Edwin Encarnacion comes in as the top points per dollar play at first on the early slate and with good reason. He's walked in six straight games, and recorded a base hit in four of those six. Last night he went hitless at the plate, while drawing a walk but tonight presents a chance for redemption against Jose Berrios. Berrios will make his 2017 debut for the Twins today in Cleveland after after posting a 3-7 record in 14 starts last season. Through 58.1 innings he walked 5.4 per 9 and allowed 1.85 HR/9. Progressive Field is a power hitters park and Berrios allowed a 33.3 hard hit percentage last year, EE could be in for a big game today.

Paul GoldschmidtPaul Goldschmidt FD 4300 DK 5600
Opponent - PIT (Williams) Park - @ARI
FD - 13.66 DK - 10.84
Paul Goldschmidt comes in as the top raw points projection among position players on the day, but of course he's going to cost you. Goldschmidt went 1-4 with a walk, RBI, and a run scored in last night's second game of the series with Pittsburgh, continuing a string of 10 of his last 11 games with at least one hit. During that stretch he's batting .317 with 3 home runs, 7 walks and 8 RBI. Tonight Pittsburgh will send Trevor Williams to the mound. Williams has only made 2 career starts, one last season and one Monday against the Dodgers in place of James Taillon. In Monday's game he allowed 6 runs off of 7 hits and a walk making it through only three innings. While we normally prefer Goldy against southpaws, we will look the other way when it comes to locking him in against a raw 25 year old spot starter coming in to his hitter friendly park. I love him in all formats.

Mike NapoliMike Napoli FD 3200 DK 4000
Opponent - OAK (Gray) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.12 DK - 8.38
Mike Napoli, like Jonathan Lucroy above, has struggled to start the season, but Thursday night gave hope that he may also be turning things around. Thursday against the Padres he wesnt 2-3 at the dish with 2 home runs and 4 RBI, while also drawing a walk. Now, as it stands he is hitless in three at bats Friday night against Oakland, but he has reached base safely in 6 of his last 8 games, and tonight he will step to the plate facing Sonny Gray. Gray is allowing a .434 wOBA to right handed hitters through 2 starts this season, and if we look back to last season, the numbers weren't much more impressive, .372 through 22 starts. Sure we'd like to see Napoli turn things around and climb to the top of the Rangers order, but at least while he's down in the middle we get him at a nice value.

Second Base

Dustin PedroiaDustin Pedroia FD 3600 DK 4200
Opponent - TB (Snell) Park - @BOS
FD - 10.82 DK - 8.55
Dustin Pedroia started the weekend series with the Rays off with a thud. He went 0-4 at the dish in the opener, but today is a new day, and with it comes Blake Snell on the mound. The 24 yr old southpaw is winless through 7 starts this season and has been very generous with the base runners, walking 5.45 batters per 9, while rocking a 1.62 WHIP and allowing 1.24 HR/9. Leading into last night's 0For Pedroia was on a steady run of 9 straight games with a hit during which he went long twice, hit 5 doubles, drew 7 walks, and drove in 8 runs. I fully expect Pedroia to be back on track today and intend to have a part of it.

Rougned OdorRougned Odor FD 3100 DK 4400
Opponent - OAK (Gray) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.26 DK - 9.03
At a position with a whole lot of nothing to offer I'm really loving Rougned Odor. Odor comes into the weekend series with Oakland with a .266 wOBA which climbs to .296 against right handed pitching. Also against right handed arms he's sporting a .227 BABIP, and his 6 home runs against right handed pitching this season are second among all second basemen. I've already spent plenty of time breaking down why we want to target Sonny Gray, so I won't bore you with what you already know. I'm a little shaky on the DraftKings price, but I will have a ton of exposure to Odor on FanDuel where he's an absolute steal.

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Xander BogaertsXander Bogaerts FD 3900 DK 4900
Opponent - TB (Snell) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.89 DK - 9.46
Here we are just over a month into the season and Xander Bogaerts is still looking for his first home run of the season. While he has still found plenty of other ways to contribute fantasy production you have to think that first dinger is due as his hard hit percentage this year isn't far off of his career numbers, just two points shy. Meanwhile, Xander has bounced around several spots in the lineup this season, and as I said, he has been a solid fantasy play even without the long ball. He's got a .342/.394/.427 slash line, a .362 wOBA, and a 127 wRC+. Blake Snell is very generous with the hard hit percentage, despite allowing only .72 HR/9 in 26 career starts. Bogaerts should have no trouble knocking him around a bit, and then some.

Trea TurnerTrea Turner FD 3700 DK 5000
Opponent - PHI (Velasquez) Park - @WSH
FD - 11.22 DK - 10.02
Vince Velasquez is a decent starting pitcher on tonight's slate, and I won't target many Nationals against him with so many other hitters in better spots, but Trea Turner is definitely worth a look. Velasquez is a career 9.98 K/9 pitcher with a 3.87 xFIP and 1.32 WHIP, but he also struggles with his control and particularly this season with the long ball. He's allowing 2.16 HR/9 through six starts and is walking just over 4 batters per 9. Turner meanwhile is among the top 10 shortstops in ISO (.160) BABIP (.343) and wOBA (.312) I particularly love this play on FanDuel where the 3700 pricetag screams upside, I'll tread a little lighter on Draftkings with the 5K price.

Third Base

Mike MoustakasMike Moustakas FD 3200 DK 3500
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @KC
FD - 10.43 DK - 8.02
Mike Moustakas' struggles of late have contributed to his value pricing across the industry, but there is reason to believe things for the 28 year old third baseman are heading for the upswing. He snapped a terrible 9 games stretch earlier this week against Tampa going 2 for 6 with a home run and 2 RBI. Since then he's gone 2-12 including a double in 4 at bats with a run scored in last night's series opener. Tonight he steps into the box against Chris Tillman, making his second start of the season after going 5 scoreless Sunday against the White Sox. Tillman's got a career 4.11 ERA and 4.42 xFIP, while Moustakas has a .364 wOBA and 127 wRC+ against right handed pitching this season. The 2 hole hitter will be my primary cash play at the hot corner on the night slate.

Jake LambJake Lamb FD 3500 DK 4700
Opponent - PIT (Williams) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.5 DK - 8.89
Jake Lamb suffered through a rough stretch of 13 games where he went 7 for 48 before returning home to Chase Field to host the Pirates. 2 games in to this 4 game series, he's 4-9 with a double, a run and three RBI. sometimes, all it takes is some home cooking and bad pitching, which he will get in abundance today. With James Taillon going down, Pittsburgh is turning to Trevor Williams, who is making his third career start. Through 14 appearances, primarily out of the bullpen over the last two seasons Williams is sporting a 7.90 ERA, and is extremely liberal with the long ball (2.63/9) and the walks (4.28/9). Sure it's a small sample size, but even his minor league numbers don't suggest much better. Lamb makes for an excellent play at third, and could be a part of an Arizona stack if you're looking to pivot away from Coors.


David PeraltaDavid Peralta FD 3000 DK 4200
Opponent - PIT (Williams) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.65 DK - 9.34
Speaking of an Arizona stack, as we stick with the Diamondbacks, we come to David Peralta. Peralta, like Lamb is enjoying the home cooking of Chase Field going 5-9 with three doubles since the start of the series with the Pirates on Thursday night ending a string of 4 straight games without a base hit. As we already established, the Diamondbacks are in a nice spot with Trevor Williams on the hill for the Pirates, and Peralta's FanDuel price is just too enticing to pass up, and even the DraftKings price isn't out of this world, Peralta will be my top outfielder in all formats tonight.

Khris DavisKhris Davis FD 3200 DK 4400
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.06 DK - 9.17
Last night we had Khris Davis in a hitters ballpark against a flyball pitcher and he did absolutely nothing, but tonight we go right back to the well. New day, and a new fly ball pitcher in the same hitters park this time in the form of Nick Martinez. Martinez is 0-2 through 4 starts this season and has been getting crushed, allowing 2.59 HR/9 and a 1.27 WHIP. Davis has struggled a bit as of late, going 1 for his last 16 and 11 games without a home run, yet despite that he is still tied for third among outfielders with 10 on the season. He could very well go 0for at the plate again tonight, which has me leaning slightly GPP with this pick but I do like Davis as my home run play of the night, and as such I will consider him in cash games as well.

Franklin GutierrezFranklin Gutierrez FD 3400 DK 4600
Opponent - COL (Anderson) Park - @COL
FD - 11.44 DK - 8.79
Gutierrez was pulled from last Saturday's game with hip tightness, and struck out as a pinch hitter on Tuesday against the Pirates, yet the veteran outfielder is batting .300/.391/.550 in 11 games this season. With a southpaw on the hill for Colorado in the form of Tyler Anderson, look for Gutierrez to draw the start in the outfield as long as the hip is feeling fine. If he starts, ideally batting clean up, in Coors, he's an absolute steal particularly on FanDuel where he comes in below $3500. Anderson meanwhile is 2-3 through 7 starts this season, and has been getting beat up from both sides of the plate, particularly against right handed hitters who own a .398 wOBA against him. If he's in the starting lineup, Gutierrez is a great play either as a stand alone in cash or as part of a Dodgers/Coors GPP stack.



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