Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel - FedEx St. Jude Classic

DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).

Chris is also currently providing his DFS PGA cheatsheet for FREE while it is still in BETA mode. You can also grab a copy of the Salary/DK Points/Ownership Trends Sheet HERE.

 

FedEx St. Jude Classic

Welcome back for another week of daily fantasy golf. It was Jason Dufner taking home the trophy last week at the Memorial with a winning score of -13. How did he do it? He led the field in Strokes Gained Approach(2.67) and in Strokes Gained Tee to Green(4.14). In fact, if he could have putt at all(-.095 SG: Putt) he would have won by a lot more as no other golfer gained over three strokes to the field in SG:T2G. Either way, it was awesome to see that huge fist pump and celebration. Miss the final round? Check out the highlights below.

 

This week the PGA Tour travels to Memphis, Tennessee for the FedEx St. Jude Classic. It has been hosted by it's current venue, TPC Southwind, since 1989 so we have a ton of course history to look at(My cheatsheet only looks at last 5 years). The course is a Par 70 with just two Par 5's, Four Par 3's, and 12 Par 4's. The Par 5 third hole is reachable in two but presents golfers with a challenge if they elect to go for it as there is water to the right and sand to the left of the small green. The Par 5 16th hole is a dogleg left that has produced almost double the Eagles and around 50 more birdies per year over the past three years.

The Par 5 third hole is reachable in two but presents golfers with a challenge if they elect to go for it as there is water to the right and sand to the left of the small green. The Par 5 16th hole is a dogleg left that has produced almost double the Eagles and around 50 more birdies per year over the past three years. The par 3's have produced between 17 and 20% of the overall birdies in the tournament over the past three years so looking at that stat can definitely help you decide between two players. The 12 Par 4's is where the tournament is won or lost with over 55% of the total birdies scored there over the past three years. That is in large part to their being 12 here but looking deeper we see that only one the Par 4 second hole played under Par last year with the Par 4 sixth hole joining it in 2015 and 2014. As you will see in my top stats section, Bogey Avoidance and Scrambling will be huge this week.

Let's take a full look at the course snapshot and the dig into the stats and fantasy approach.

The Course

TPC Southwind - Memphis, TN
Par 70 - 7, 244 Yards
Greens - Bermuda 

**Click to Enlarge**

Past Five Winners

• 2016 - Daniel Berger(13)
• 2015 - Fabian Gomez(-13)
• 2014 - Ben Crane(-10)
• 2013 - Harris English(-12)
• 2012 - Dustin Johnson(-9)

 

The Stats & Fantasy Approach

My Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Greens in Regulation Other Than Fairway
• Par 4 Scoring
• Bogey Avoidance
• Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green

Looking at the correlation stats on the cheatsheet this week Strokes Gained Approach stood out more than any other. Last year, eight of the 11 players who finished inside the Top 10 were Top 20 in GIR for the week, 6/11 in 2015, and 5/10 in 2014. It makes sense with the small greens that those who hit more and give themselves the extra birdie chances hover the top of the leaderboard. Par 4 Scoring is heavily weighed this week with it being a Par 70 with 12 of them on the course. As I mentioned above, there was only one Par 4(2nd hole)last year to score under par overall and just two holes in 2015 and 2014(2nd and 6th holes) which puts an emphasis on Bogey Avoidance as well as Scrambling and Strokes Gained Around the Green.

Other Stats I am looking at - Par 3 Scoring, Birdie or Better %, Strokes Gained off the Tee + Approach

 

 

As always if you are looking for some other tournament angles and Top 25 trends, be sure to head over to Future of Fantasy and check out the Fantasy Golfanac for the FedEx St. Jude Classic. 

And if you are into the Strokes Gained Metrics, jump on over to DataGolf where they have breakdowns by tournament or by player showing strokes gained statistics. You will see me reference these in my articles and videos. 

 

 

Top Course History Targets

Phil Michelson
World Golf Ranking (#23)
Vegas Odds (18/1)
Draftkings ($10,200)
FanDuel ($9,700)

After missing the cut in his first trip here in 2001, Phil skipped the event for the next seven years before coming back to place T59 in 2009. He once again took a three-year hiatus and returned in 2013 when he finally figured it out finishing T2, T11, T3, and T2 over the last four years. He isn't coming into this event with sparkling current form but not bad form either. He has yet to miss a cut in 14 events with three Top 10's and nine Top 25 finishes. He also fits the stats model this week highlighted by a ranking of 5th in SG: APP, 11th in SG: ATG, and 3rd overall on the sheet in Birdie or Better %.

 

Harold Varner III
World Golf Ranking (#130)
Vegas Odds (80/1)
Draftkings ($7,400)
FanDuel ($6,200)

It's a small sample size but I wanted to provide a second course history pick down in the value range this week. In his first trip to TPC Southwind last year Varner came home with a T16(-4) and did so with his Ball Striking as he ended up second in SG:OTT and fifth in SG:APP for the tournament. Those are his strengths and he will lean on them again this week as he is 24th in the field on my cheatsheet in both stats this week which help him to a Top 20 overall ranking in my model. He is not the safe pick I would use in cash games but makes a high upside GPP play with lower ownership(4.7% average since ToC).

 

 

Other notable Course History plays: Brooks Koepka(2nd, 3rd, 19th last 3 years), Chez Reavie(12th in 2015, 27th in 2013)

 

 

Top Current Form Targets

Francesco Molinari
World Golf Ranking (#16)
Vegas Odds (16/1)
Draftkings ($10,500)
FanDuel ($8,700)

He has been running hot all year and has shown winnign upside in both weak and strong field events. He started off the year with back to back Top 10's at the WGC-HSBC Champions and Shriners Open, has missed just one cut all year and is coming off a very impressive T6 at the PLAYERS Championship a few weeks ago. Overall, he has four Top 10's, 10 Top 25's and his worst finish outside of the missed cut has been a T33 at the Masters. He was also a first timer last year at this event and while it wasn't an eye-popping finish(T34), it is something he should most definitely be able to build on. Molinari also sits fifth in the stats model and is one of just six golfers who rank inside the Top 25 in all three categories. He is in play in all formats.

 

 

Ian Poulter
World Golf Ranking (#83)
Vegas Odds (50/1)
Draftkings ($7,600)
FanDuel ($7,100)

Again, I wanted to mix up the picks with a top tier choice and value choice in each section. Enter Ian Poulter who is much more than a just a value play as he ranks fifth overall in my model this week. It is led by his current form which has been on point lately as he has not only made three straight cuts but finished T35, T2, and T32 in the process with six rounds under 70 and all 12 rounds 72 and under. He missed the cut here in his first trip back in 2010, finished T51 in 2013 and followed that up with a T6 in 2014. He is making his first trip to TPC Southwind in three years. He is a safe play in all formats.

 

Other Notable Form Plays: Peter Uihlein(T25, T25, 5th on PGA Tour this season)

Who the Stats Like

Rickie Fowler
World Golf Ranking (#9)
Vegas Odds (8/1)
Draftkings ($12,000)
FanDuel ($10,500)

The most expensive player on both sites this week is the only player inside the Top 10 of the Official World Golf Rankings. Rickie Fowler also tops my overall model as he is the only player to rank inside the Top 10 in all three categories led by his elite stats ranks. He is third in the field in SG:APP, seventh in SG:ATG, sixth in Par 4 Scoring, fourth in Bogey Avoidance, ninth in Scrambling and first in Birdie or Better %. He has played here just once(2014-T13) but is coming in with some excellent form including a T2 last week at the Memorial. I don't think you need to pay up for Rickie in cash games but in this weak field he makes an excellent start to a high upside GPP lineup.

 

Kyle Stanley
World Golf Ranking (#92)
Vegas Odds (33/1)
Draftkings ($8,400)
FanDuel ($6,800)

Stanley comes in right behind Fowler in the stats model as he ranks fourth in the field in SG:APP, third in Par 4 Scoring, 13th in BoB%, and eighth in Bogey Avoidance. The form has been good all year as he has played 17 events, making the cut in 14 of them with four Top 10's and eight Top 25 finishes and sits 38th in the FedEx Cup standings. He has been even better recently with two of those Top 10's in his last three events. The risky part this week is that Stanley's salary has climbed to a new season high which is nearly $1,300 over his season average. Combine that with some poor form here(CUT, T62, CUT last three years) and you have yourself a high risk/high reward GPP play. So far on FanShareSports Most Tagged list he sits at the top with 33 tags, 15 for starts and two for sits.

 

Other Notable Stats Plays: Daniel Berger(12thin SG:APP, 7th in Par 4 Scoring on sheet)

 

 

Top Low-End Value Play

Tom Hoge
World Golf Ranking (#508)
Vegas Odds (225/1)
Draftkings ($6,800)
FanDuel ($5,000)

Dipping doen in the sub $7K range we find Tom Hoge this week who comes in rankd #6 overall in my model. He is actually the only player below $7,500 on DraftKings to rank inside the Top 10 in my model. He is one of the six golfers who sits inside the Top 30 in all three categories on the cheatsheet. He has played here twice finishing T12 in 2015 and T34 last year and stands out in a few stats I am keying on as well. He ranks 26th in the field in SG:APP, first in Par 3 Scoring, 21st in Bogey Avoidance, 16th in Scrambling, and 27th in BoB%. For you GPP players, he has also been mentioned very little so far this week when looking at FanShareSports(6 tags & just 2 for starts).

 

 

Other Notable Value Plays: J.T. Poston

 

 

For a feel of where ownership is going to be this week, be sure to head over to FanShareSports where they track all the social media mentions of all players throughout the week. They then quantify this data and rank each player in their "Most Tagged List". They have also added Salary Differential, Subject Tags and Projections. All the tools you need to help you become a better daily fantasy golf player.

 

 

If you have any questions leading up to lineup lock Thursday morning you can reach me in a variety of ways. Leave a Q below in the comment section and I will get you an answer. You can hit me up in the new chatroom here at DFSR(It's crazy busy with NBA/MLB talk so try and private message me for specific PGA Q's. I am also always available on Twitter(@jager_bombs9). Good luck this week!

 

**Note on Stats - The stats I refer to in this article are from my own spreadsheet/cheatsheet and weigh both 2017 and 2016 stats. If you have any questions about the cheatsheet please contact me on Twitter(@Jager_Boms9).**

 

 

FedEx St. Jude Classic Update Thread

**Weather Update**

 

 

 

Weekly YouTube Video

***Check back Tuesday evening for the video****

 

 

 

 

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.