Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel - 117th U.S. Open

DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).

Chris is also currently providing his DFS PGA cheatsheet for FREE while it is still in BETA mode. You can also grab a copy of the Salary/DK Points/Ownership Trends Sheet HERE.

 

117th U.S. Open

The time has come once again for the USGA's version of Mission Impossible, the U.S. Open. This year the event will be held at Erin Hills for the first time in the course's history(Opened in 2006). It is a minimalist designed course that uses the rolling prairie, fescue, and natural sand to create a unique challenge for the golfers. It is somewhat a links course in that it has very few trees on site and the scoring is very dependant on the wind as it is the #1 defense system. From the tee box, golfers are going to like the very wide fairways here but many of the tee shots are going to present a challenge being blind and protected by the natural and near impossible bunkers. Spray the ball too far offline and golfers are going to have to deal with fescue that, in certain spots, will be 3-4 feet high making it an extreme challenge just to get the ball back in play. While Kevin Na was maybe a little over dramatic about the playing conditions, it was still pretty entertaining. Check it out.

Whether you agree with Na or not, that heavy fescue is going to make or break a lot of players chances of hoisting the trophy this week. To be perfectly honest, I don't think that the fescue is even close to the biggest challenge this week if you can believe it. The bunkers are going to test even the best sand players as it will be almost impossible to find a flat lie or stance in these natural hazards. Then, as I mentioned above, golfers will have to deal with the wind which could easily sway the winning score by 5+ shots. Currently, the forecast is showing 7-10 mph winds with gusts of 10-20 at times. I will be monitoring closely and reporting in my videos and through the DFSR chat leading up to lineup lock.

The course plays at a whopping 7,700+ yards and with added tee boxes could be stretched out over 8,000! As you are going to see below in my list of top stats, Driving Distance is not included and for a particular reason(not because I am crazy. I am crazy but that's not why). The fairways are a makeup of fine fescue which is common to link courses across the pond. What they create is a sort of trampoline effect for well-struck drives combined with the undulated terrain that can see balls roll out several yards shortening the course in a sense.

Let's take a look at the course details, last five U.S. Open winners and scores and then jump into the stats.

 

The Course

Erin Hills - Erin, Wisconsin
Par 72 - 7,741 Yards (From US Open website)

**Click to Enlarge**

For a complete flyover view of every hole with detailed description, be sure to check out this LINK from the U.S. Open website.

 

Past Five U.S. Open Winners

• 2016 - Dustin Johnson(-4)
• 2015 - Jordan Spieth(-5)
• 2014 - Martin Kaymer(-9)
• 2013 - Justin Rose(+1)
• 2012 - Webb Simpson(+1)

 

The Stats & Fantasy Approach

My Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Par 5 Scoring
• Birdie or Better %

This week my top weighted stat is going to be Strokes Gained Off the Tee. The fairways are very generous in size taking away some of the accuracy needed and the rolling terrain takes some emphasis off Driving Distance even though the course is a monster. Instead, I like the Off the Tee metric as it applies to all facets of driving. Next up is going to be Strokes Gained Approach. For those players who find the fairway, the next challenge is reaching the elevated and heavily guarded greens without losing strokes in the bunker or rolling away into the many collection areas forcing some tough scrambles. When it comes to Par 3/4/5 scoring I am factoring Par 5 scoring the most. With the length of some of the Par 4's, I personally think it will be more important to limit the damage on these holes and pick up strokes on the Par 5's with birdies. Erin Hills is a different approach by the USGA as it is a Par 72 which has four Par 5's unlike most U.S. Open venues which are Par 70 or 71 setups. This gives golfers four more chances(for those who make weekend) at scoring. This brings me to my next stat, Birdie or Better %, which I factor each week as it correlates closely with fantasy scoring.

 

Other Stats I am looking at - Sand Save %, Par 4 Scoring/Bogey Avoidance, GIR 175-200 Yards & 200 + Yards

 

 

If you are into the Strokes Gained Metrics, jump on over to DataGolf where they have breakdowns by tournament or by player showing strokes gained statistics. You will see me reference these in my articles and videos. 

 

 

Top Current Form Targets

Rory McIlroy
World Golf Ranking (#2)
Vegas Odds (14/1)
Draftkings ($11,200)
FanDuel ($10,300)

The Taylor Made equipment change in 2017 continued for Rory this week as he added a Red Spider putter to his arsenal. It is a similar putter to what DJ and Day are using and I don't see it being a problem this week. The bigger issue that seems to be affecting people's decisions is the injuries he has dealt with. He complained of a rib issue at the PLAYERS and ended up withdrawing from the BMW Championship and the Memorial. The #2 player in the world makes a tremendous GPP play this week that could come in as one of the lowest owned golfers in the upper tier. Take a look at the FanShareSports tag count through Monday night.

That's right only six start tag and eight sit tags. I will take that and run with the four-time major champ who had some nice form before the injury with four Top 10 finishes in 2017(WGC-HSBC Champions, WGC-Mexico, Arnold Palmer Invitational, the Masters). Rory also happens to rank #1 on my sheet in SG: OTT, #2 in SG: T2G, #1 in Par 5 Scoring, and #4 in BoB%.

 

 

Sergio Garcia
World Golf Ranking (#7)
Vegas Odds (25/1)
Draftkings ($10,000)
FanDuel ($9,600)

Just ahead of Rory in overall tags so far is the 2017 Masters Champion, Sergio Garcia, who comes into this week ranked #1 on my overall model. He is ranked second on my cheatsheet in form which looks at a player's last five tournaments which include a most recent T12 at the Dean & Deluca Invitational and his big major win two months ago. IN fact, Sergio has not missed a cut all season(10/10) and has a win and seven Top 25 finishes. He is also an elite play if you were looking at stats as he ranks 3rd in SG:OTT, 8th in Par 5 Scoring, 15th in Bogey Avoidance and 18th in BoB%. As the 7th most expensive golfer this week, Sergio makes a great play in all formats.

 

 

Matt Kuchar
World Golf Ranking (#15)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
Draftkings ($7,600)
FanDuel ($8,600)

One of my favorite value plays of the week is going to be Matt Kuchar. His T40 at the Valero and 82nd at the PLAYERS has him ranked down a bit in the five-tournament form ranks but looking more recently, he is one fo the hottest on Tour. He is coming off an impressive T4 at the Memorial, T12 at the Dean & Deluca, and T9 at the AT&T Byron Nelson. He doesn't have a sparkling record at the U.S. Open with just one Top 10 but hasn't missed a cut since 2009. Statistically, he doesn't stand out on the surface ranked 44th on the sheet but stands out in a few areas. He is 9th in SG: ATG, 11th in Bogey Avoidance, 7th in Scrambling and Top 26 in GIR form 175-200 and 200+ yards. He shoudl eb able to stay out of trouble and lurk on the leaderboard on Sunday in an effort to grab his first major win. He is a better play on DraftKings where he comes in the mid $7K range and is safe in all formats.

 

Other Notable Form Plays: Paul Casey(T10, T22, T12, 6, T41 last five tourneys)

 

Who the Stats Like

John Rahm
World Golf Ranking (#10)
Vegas Odds (20/1)
Draftkings ($10,300)
FanDuel ($10,400)

Looking at the stats this week, there is no one who ranks higher in my model than John Rahm. He ranks Top 5 in Strokes Gained Total, Tee to Green, Off the Tee, and Approach. On top of that he is 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 9th in Par 5 Scoring, 7th in Bogey Avoidance, and 6th in BoB%. He has been incredible since turning pro last year after the U.S. Open with a win and eight total Top 10 finishes. He comes into this year's tournament after his first missed cut since the Wyndham last August. I was hoping that would be enough for people to avoid him for the most part but looking at that FanShare tag list above, he is 2nd in overall tags in the top tier and 2nd in start recommendations. Either way, I think he is a high upside play this week on both sites.

 

Francesco Molinari
World Golf Ranking (#17)
Vegas Odds (80/1)
Draftkings ($7,000)
FanDuel ($7,800)

It almost feels like stealing with Molinari's price on DraftKings this week. There are actually a few price values I love(will go into a few more in my upcoming video) but Molinari tops the list as he is priced just over $1,300 less than his season average and comes in near the top of all categories. I list him under stats as he ranks Top 10 in SG: T2G, SG: APP, Total Driving, Par 4 & 5 Scoring, and is ranked 12thin BoB% on my sheet. The form has been on point as well as he has made 13 cuts in 14 tournaments with four Top 10's and 11 Top 25's. In fact, since his missed cut at the Genesis Open in February,  Molinari has made eight straight cuts with two Top 10's and has not finished worse than T33(Masters). Looking at FanShare in the $6,000 - $7,900 range, we see he is ranked 3rd in overall tags but T9 in start recommendations which could leave us with extreme value if he is under 20% owned.

 

Tyrell Hatton
World Golf Ranking (#18)
Vegas Odds (80/1)
Draftkings ($7,500)
FanDuel ($7,600)

Speaking of that $7K range, I love Hatton this week from a GPP perspective. He has only been tagged five times thus far, and only twice for a start so look for the ownership to be in the sub 5% range this week. While the current form isn't quite there with a T41 at the PLAYERS, T29 at the RBC Heritage and missed cut at the Masters, he has had a pretty darn good season on the PGA Tour with three Top 10's and five Top 25 finishes. I listed him under the stats section as he also has some nice stats ranking 12th in SG:OTT, 18th in SG:APP, 1st in SG: Putting and 20th in overall scoring average. He is also just under $800 cheaper than his season average on DraftKings. There is risk involved but I believe he has Top 10 upside here at Erin Hills.

 

 

Other Notable Stats Plays: Justin Rose(6th in SG:OTT, 3rd in SG: ATG, 3rd in GIR 200+, 12th in Par 5)

 

 

Top Low-End Value Play

Byeong Hun An
World Golf Ranking (#56)
Vegas Odds (100/1)
Draftkings ($6,800)
FanDuel ($6,800)

He has ranked way up there in the sheet for some time now and is my top value play under $7K this week on both sites. He fits the stats model ranking 15th in SG:OTT, 13th in SG:APP, Top 15 in GIR from 150-175, 175-200 and 200+ yards and is Top 25 in both Par 4 and 5 scoring. In 15 tournaments this season he has missed just one cut and has also shown some upside with three Top 10 finishes. While I don;t think a Top 10 is in order this week, I do think he can grab a Top 20 which should easily pay off his low salary that is $750 less than his season average.

 

 

Other Notable Value Plays: Marc Leishman

 

 

For a feel of where ownership is going to be this week, be sure to head over to FanShareSports where they track all the social media mentions of all players throughout the week. They then quantify this data and rank each player in their "Most Tagged List". They have also added Salary Differential, Subject Tags and Projections. All the tools you need to help you become a better daily fantasy golf player.

 

 

If you have any questions leading up to lineup lock Thursday morning you can reach me in a variety of ways. Leave a Q below in the comment section and I will get you an answer. You can hit me up in the new chatroom here at DFSR(It's crazy busy with NBA/MLB talk so try and private message me for specific PGA Q's. I am also always available on Twitter(@jager_bombs9). Good luck this week!

 

**Note on Stats - The stats I refer to in this article are from my own spreadsheet/cheatsheet and weigh both 2017 and 2016 stats. If you have any questions about the cheatsheet please contact me on Twitter(@Jager_Boms9).**

 

 

FedEx St. Jude Classic Update Thread

**Weather Update**

 

 

Weekly YouTube Video

 

 

 

 

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.