Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/28/16
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Right from the top it sure feels like another GPP night when Alex Wood is leading the raw points projections. Not that I am at all worried about his last start where he was destroyed for seven earned runs over three innings. He has been electric all season with 10.35 K/9 rate and 13.2% swinging strike rate. On top of that, he gets a great matchup vs. the Giants who rank near the bottom of the league in hitting vs. left-handed pitching and overall runs scored. The only real issue here is the pitch count as he has only made it to 100 pitches(last start) once this season and the Dodgers are likely to be extra careful after losing their ace Clayton Kershaw for a few weeks. The price is not too bad considering the options on the slate and upside in this matchup.
Speaking of GPP options, here we have Danny Salazar who has ace level, electric stuff and has struck out over 12 batters per nine this season but the same old story with Salazar. He walks too many batters(4.06 BB/9) and gives up the long ball(20.8% HR/Fb rate). The high PTS/$ value ranking in the system makes sense tonight as Salazar and the Indians get an elite matchup vs. the tanking White Sox who went into Thursday night losers of nine of their last 10 games. They have been a top 10 team vs. lefties this year but rank 29th in wOBA and 28th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching. There is downside, as there is with almost all pitchers tonight, but the upside and value price make Salazar a top target.
If you are looking to go even lower at SP2 in an attempt to load up on the bats, consider Julio Teheran. One of the first things I look at each day when starting my pitching research is who is going up against the Padres, White Sox, Giants or Phillies. Well, I already mentioned Wood and Salazar and I am not a fan of Chad Kuhl. That leaves Teheran who gets the Phillies tonight. They have scored the second fewest runs in the league in 2017 and rank 25th in wOBA and 27th in wRC+ with a 23.8% K rate vs. right-handed pitching. For Teheran, it has been another disappointing season as he holds a 4.67 ERA and 5.16 xFIP but has some GPP value as he has held opponents to three or less earned runs in seven of his last eight starts while going at least six innings in each of those seven starts.
Jonathan Lucroy FD 2500 DK 3200
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.62 DK - 8.23
Lucroy leads all catchers tonight in PTS/$ thanks to his value price on both sites. It's been a rough first full season with the Rangers as he is hitting just .245 with a weak 68 wRC+ but he is in a great spot tonight as the Rangers currently sit with the highest implied run total on the slate. It has everything to do with the matchup vs. Chris Tillman who is having his worst season a pro with a 7.01 ERA while also giving up a ton of home runs(17% HR/FB rate). He has been even worse on the road with a 12.33 ERA and .496 wOBA against. Roster Lucroy in all formats and use the savings to load up on bats at other positions.
Brian McCann FD 2800 DK 3900
Opponent - DET (Zimmermann) Park - @DET
FD - 11.13 DK - 8.45
Speaking of great spots and value pricing we have Brian McCann who is always a system favorite due to his power upside. He has hits in just five of eight games since the break but has hit three home runs in that time. Like Lucroy, he is also in a great spot tonight facing Jordan Zimmerman who has given up four or more earned runs in four of his last five starts and in 11 of his 19 starts this season with a 15% HR/FB rate. That is enough for me to consider McCann in all formats tonight, at least on FanDuel where he comes with a sub $3K price tag.
The list of awful pitchers we can target against tonight feels endless and Derek Holland is one we can't avoid. He enters tonight with a 5.12 ERA, 5.21 xFIP and he gives out home runs like candy at a parade(18.6% HR/FB rate). The Indians provide us two options at first base and it all depends on much you want to spend. Not spending up for Wood tonight? Encarnacion has the highest ceiling with his big power upside(21 HR, 59 RBI) but if you need the savings Santana also makes sense. He has been enjoying July which has been his best month of the season hitting .333 with a .412 wOBA and 161 wRC+. Either way you go, I don't think you will be disappointed tonight.
Kendrys Morales FD 3200 DK 3700
Opponent - LAA (Bridwell) Park - @TOR
FD - 9.92 DK - 7.48
I prefer Santana in a better matchup on FanDuel at the same price but ignoring Morales' price on DraftKings would be a mistake. He is starting to heat back up in July with three home runs in his last two games giving him 20 for the season, the fifth season in a row with 20 and sixth in his last seven. That, ladies and gentlemen, is consist power production at a sub $4K price tag. The Jays are on a heater right now winning four straight, outscoring opponents 19-9 and with the top PTS/$ value ranking Morales is safe in all formats.
Rougned Odor FD 3000 DK 3800
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.63 DK - 9.33
Second base is one place I always like to spend down at and for tournaments, I like what Odor brings to the table. He doesn't wow anyone with his .218 average but provides upside with the power and with his 20 home runs, is one of only two at the position with 20+ home runs on the season. On top of that, he gets the elite matchup you have heard about already and will continue to hear about until lineup lock.
Logan Forsythe FD 3200 DK 3100
Opponent - SF (Moore) Park - @LAD
FD - 10.03 DK - 7.88
Forsythe always shows up near the top of the PTS/$ rankings when facing a southpaw. While hitting just .197 against righties, he is hitting .338 against lefties with an elite .426 wOBA and 167 wRC+. The fact he is so awful vs. right-handed pitching really helps keep his price in the low $3K range and to add to the value, we have also seen the Dodgers move him up into the leadoff spot. In an attempt to get two of the top pitchers in my DraftKings lineups tonight I will have a heavy dose of Forsythe.
Francisco Lindor FD 3900 DK 4900
Opponent - CHW (Holland) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.47 DK - 10.06
Another DFSR favorite, Francisco Lindor tops the raw points projections at shortstop tonight. During the first half, we continually talked about his power upside as he hit 14 home runs but the average and consistency sure took a step back in the process. He appears to have made an adjustment over the All Star break as he has opened up the second half hitting .367 with a .409 wOBA and 158 wRC+. What makes him an elite play tonight is the matchup vs. an average lefty as he hits them much better than righties with a .376 wOBA and 136 wRC+.
Xander Bogaerts FD 2800 DK 3700
Opponent - KC (Vargas) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.06 DK - 9.64
I haven't mentioned Bogaerts in awhile and for good reason. He has struggled with a .140 average in the second half but sits atop the PTS/$ ranking on the FanDuel projections and right up there on DraftKings as well. The struggles and drop down the order have helped bring his price into the "buy now" zone which makes him tough to fade as we know he is a high contact/high on-base player with a bit of pop in his bat. He is an easy choice on FanDuel if you are paying up for a pitcher.
Manny Machado FD 3600 DK 4400
Opponent - TEX (Cashner) Park - @TEX
FD - 13.27 DK - 10.23
Machado has been a very similar path this season as Lindor who I mentioned above. He lacked any consistency in the first half with a .230 batting average but provided a ton of upside with 18 home runs. While he has yet to hit one out since the All Star break, he has re gained some consistency hitting .313 and enters tonight with hits in three straight and eight of his last 10 games. It also doesn't hurt getting a big park upgrade and facing Andrew Cashner who strikes out(4.5 K/9) just half a batter more per nine than he walks.
Adrian Beltre FD 3900 DK 4500
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.81 DK - 9.85
— Kent Murphy (@KentMurphy) July 28, 2017
I guess the umpire just wasn't in the mood for shenanigans on Wednesday night as Beltre was tossed after going 3 for 3 with a home run in a big 22-10 loss. He is one of many Rangers listed tonight as the system is fully on the bandwagon in a matchup vs. Chris Tillman. Beltre is another player that has taken off since the break hitting .367 with a .411 wOBA and 157 wRC+thanks to hits in seven of his last eight games with three doubles, a triple and home run. The 38-year-old still has it and should be considered in all formats.
Also Consider: Justin Turner (LAD)
Giancarlo Stanton FD 4600 DK 5600
Opponent - CIN (Romano) Park - @MIA
FD - 14.14 DK - 10.59
It's very close at the top and I went back and forth all night but settled on Stanton slightly over Harper and Judge. The system has them ranked one, two, three in raw points projections and all three have huge upside. I prefer Stanton's matchup vs. Sal Ramano who has yet to show consistent control in back to back games and that is good news as he shut down the Marlins four days ago. Stanton went 0 for 4 in that game but the small sample size doesn't worry me as Stanton himself can be streaky and is currently in a groove with a league-leading seven home runs since the All Star break. Likely what I will do in the multi entry contests is make a lineup with the most expensive guy on both sites and then make two more with the other two guys to get exposure to all three.
When it comes to targeting multiple outfield options on a team, I like to do it against a really bad pitcher. Enter Chris Tillman. He strikes out a below just six and a half batters per nine and is averaging a home run against per start this season(17.3% HR/FB rate). Looking at the splits is what will really open your eyes as he is giving up a .399 wOBA to righties and an equally bad .411 wOBA to lefties and has been even worse on the road with a 12.33 ERA and .496 wOBA against. Choo and Mazara show up in the optimizer quite often thanks to their low price and a high spot in the batting order and tonight get an elite matchup as the Rangers currently have the highest implied run total of the night. Both are safe in all formats as one-offs or as a two-man outfield stack.
Josh Reddick FD 3200 DK 4700
Opponent - DET (Zimmermann) Park - @DET
FD - 12.38 DK - 9.71
The price is probably a little high for cash games on DraftKings but on FanDuel Reddick ranks right near the top of the PTS/$ value rankings tonight. He is hitting third in the highest scoring offense in baseball(599 runs) and has been fairly consistent with hits in all but three games since the All Star break. The high projection also has something to do with the fact he is facing a gas can in Jordan Zimmerman who I love to pick on. He has given up four or more earned runs in four of his last five starts and in 11 of his 19 starts this season.
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