Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/7/17

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Pitcher

Max Scherzer FD 11100 DK 12800
Opponent - MIA (O'Grady) Park - @WSH
FD - 39.21 DK - 25.93

This is a slate where you want to pay up for pitcher. I guess you can consider paying down for the likes of Carlos Martinez or Brent Suter, but it's not optimal. Those guys are huge drops from the top 2 and I don't think it's affordable in cash games. Starting with Scherzer, he's the highest priced and the guy with the most upside. He left last week with neck spasms, but is said to be perfectly fine. Scherzer is one of the 3 best pitchers in baseball and he's proven it over and over again. So far in 2018, Mad Max has posted a .241 combined wOBA while striking out over 12 batters per 9 innings. It doesn't get much better than that. This match-up against the Marlins is a decent one and one that Scherzer has gone through. He's held his own in the past and should have a floor of 7 innings here.

Jake Arrieta FD 9800 DK 11600
Opponent - SF (Moore) Park - @SF
FD - 34.42 DK - 22.55

This is a very, very enticing match-up for Jake Arrieta. As we point out all the time, the Giants are absolutely atrocious at home against righties. They've held a league low .292 wOBA so far and have shown no signs of improving. AT&T Park is ginormous and this inept offense has a lot of trouble putting runs together. As for Arrieta, he's been better recently. After being up and down for the first part of the season, he looks to be turning into playoff mode. He's held a .301 combined wOBA and sees most of his troubles against left-handed power bats. He'll strike out at least 7 or 8 and should very well control the game. The Cubs face off with Matt Moore and hold a 5.40 implied run total, so the win shouldn't be an issue. All in all, you'll have to choose between Arrieta and Scherzer in cash games. I'm currently leaning Arrieta, but can see the argument(s) for both.

Catcher

Willson Contreras FD 3500 DK 4900
Opponent - SF (Moore) Park - @SF
FD - 10.89 DK - 8.47

The Cubs are one of the top offenses on the slate and will start us off here at catcher. I had a big H2H match-up yesterday and ended up edging my opponent out by 2 points, who had Willson Contreras. Contreras mashed 2 fingers and gave me a huge sweat. He'll look to add to the fire tonight against Matt Moore, who hits more barrels than any pitcher in baseball at over 10%. The Cubs aren't the greatest team to hit the barrels of and a guy like Contreras still has the power to park one anywhere. He's been atrocious against both lefties and righties and has a huge HR issue. We'll touch on Moore later, but just know he isn't very good. Contreras is the top catcher on the slate and he should be pretty popular in cash games, as well as tournaments.

Chris Gimenez FD 2100 DK 2500
Opponent - MIL (Suter) Park - @MIN
FD - 7.88 DK - 6.16

Chris Gimenez has been finding his way into a lot of lineups as of late. It mostly has to do with him being minimum priced on FD and sitting in the 4/5 hole. He's better against lefties and has to be considered as a top cash game option at such a limited position. The Twins face off with Brent Suter, who has pitched way over his head so far. He's been pitching better than most of his minor league seasons and that just won't keep up much longer. This Twins team can hit against lefties and Gimenez is a phenomenal cost-saving option at a weak position. While Contreras will give you that juicy upside, it'll cost you some funds. Gimenez should grab a hit or two and if a guy in on base, it's all gravy.

First Base

Joey Votto FD 4200 DK 5300
Opponent - SD (Chacin) Park - @CIN
FD - 12.95 DK - 9.87

Joey Votto is in one of the most obvious spots of the night. When you consider this match-up and the rest of 1B being pretty weak, Votto should be very popular. I don't mind at all and he will be in every one of my cash games. Jhoulys Chacin is one of the worst pitchers in the league against lefties and he's much, much worse on the road. He moves from Petco Park to The Great American Ballpark, which is about as big as a jump as you can get. The Reds are implied to put up over 5 runs and Vegas has Chacin making an early exit. Against lefties on the road, Chacin has allowed s pitiful .443 wOBA. Votto is one of the best hitters in baseball and posts a .380+ wOBA year in and year out. The spot will be very popular and as I said, I'm taking the bait. While there's always strong pivots in tourneys, I don't see me going elsewhere in cash with the current landscape of the slate.

Josh Bell FD 3300 DK 3900
Opponent - DET (Zimmermann) Park - @PIT
FD - 10.23 DK - 7.99

We won't look at these Pirates a ton, but know they are in play against Jordan Zimmerman. Zimmerman is one of the guys in the league who has taken the steepest tumble. He's allowing a .360 combined wOBA to both lefties and righties and striking out just over 5 batters per 9 innings. He's the least intimidating pitcher I have ever seen take the mound. He has no fire and looks like he's just trying to get out of the game as quickly as possible. If I was as bad as him, so would I. He's posted a .373 against lefties and these Pirates lefties make a whole lot of sense. Josh Bell, a switch-hitter, has posted a ..343 wOBA against right-handers. He has HR potential at home in PNC Park, where the ball flies for lefties and dies for righties.

Second Base

Brian Dozier FD 3500 DK 4800
Opponent - MIL (Suter) Park - @MIN
FD - 12.18 DK - 9.71

Second base is a wasteland on this slate. While you have a few guys that make a lot of sense in tournaments, Brian Dozier is the only guy I want for cash games. As a lefty masher, I trust him against Brent Suter. While Suter has posted just a .307 wOBA against righties, that's after struggling against them in the minors for 3 years. The struggles will return and Suter will give up some knocks to righties. Dozier in particular, is a very scary bat to any lefty. Since the start of the season, he's posted a .330 AVG and .421 wOBA against them. There is no other word than elite. Target Field is a slight positive park for righties and these Twins have a lot of upside. I think they're pretty safe as well, at least compared to the other options.

Javier Baez FD 3000 DK 4400
Opponent - SF (Moore) Park - @SF
FD - 9.05 DK - 7.31

Javier Baez is always going to be more of a tournament option, so keep that in mind at all times. The Cubs face off with Matt Moore tonight, who is a simply bad pitcher. He hasn't gotten lefties nor righties out this year and has struggled with the long ball more than ever. He's a guy you want to target as much as possible and we know how lethal this Cubs offense can be. Baez has held a .331 wOBA against lefties since entering the league and has a great shot of squaring one up against Moore. His price is low and the upside is unquestioned. Don't be afraid to take a shot at a position where both power and speed lack, let alone the combo of both.

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Shortstop

Eduardo Escobar FD 2600 DK 3300
Opponent - MIL (Suter) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.71 DK - 8.45

On an ordinary full slate of games, the Twins don't nearly as much this attention. We would have possibly talked on Brian Dozier and that would have been it. Instead, we have a small slate with a bunch of decent pitchers. The Twins are one of the top options in both cash games and tournaments against a lefty in Brett Suter that is due for regression. He's allowed a .307 wOBA so far, but posted a worse number in the minors over the past 3 seasons. Righties will start getting to Suter and he will struggle mightily once that happens. Shortstop is a very ugly position and definitely the worst of the bunch on this slate. Escobar will consistently see a strong spot in the order and if he's in the 3 hole again, makes for a fantastic cash game play. When looking at the other options, you will figure out real quick why I landed on Escobar.

Paul DeJong FD 3000 DK 4600
Opponent - KC (Kennedy) Park - @KC

Paul DeJong, just another St.Louis Cardinal who gets called up and dominates. As for DeJong, we knew it was possible. He cranked 23 homers out last year in AA and showed some huge potential. He's turned that into major league production this season, sporting a .343 wOBA against righties. He's belted 11 dingers against them and has the power to hit it out anywhere. DeJong may be hitting a bit over his head right now, but is still a very solid bat on an everyday basis. The Cardinals face off with Ian Kennedy, who is not very good. He's sporting a .241 BABIP and has already allowed 18 homers on the year. Things are only going downhill and this Cardinals team should be able to inflict some damage. Shortstop is horrible tonight and I see no reason to shy away from DeJong. Unless you can find someone cheaper, of course.

FD - 8.74 DK - 6.91

Third Base

Kris Bryant FD 4000 DK 5300
Opponent - SF (Moore) Park - @SF
FD - 12.93 DK - 9.96

Kris Bryant will cap off our Cubs exposure. You may be able to get an Albert Almora or Ian Happ in the outfield, but I decided to not go overboard. Bryant is the top play on this Cubs team and I think it just comes down to whether AT&T Park is big enough or not. I promise you Bryant will square up a pitch or two against Moore. If he's able to get it elevated, expect fireworks. Bryant is my pick for HR of the night and I'll have him in nearly every cash game and tournament. Bryant has obliterated lefties into 50 pieces since entering the league, sporting a .431 wOBA. He's a 40-50 HR hitter and will demolish lefties for a very long time. Matt Moore is the last guy to stand in his way and so I certainly won't watch this one from the sidelines.

Anthony Rendon FD 3300 DK 4500
Opponent - MIA (O'Grady) Park - @WSH
FD - 9.7 DK - 7.58

While we haven't touched on the Nationals just yet, they make for an extremely interesting stack against the Marlins and southpaw Chris O'Grady. O'Grady isn't a huge prospect and isn't expected to be very good in the majors. He's struggled against righties and it makes guys like Rendon, Zimmerman, and Taylor very attractive. As for Rendon, he's always been a heavy platoon hitter. He's held a ridiculous .505 wOBA against lefties this year, that is somehow held up by peripherals. He may not be the best hitter in baseball against lefties, but he's obviously close. He'll be lesser owned than Kris Bryant and makes for a fantastic tournament pivot. You can definitely play in cash as well if you simply prefer the Nats offense.

Outfield

Mike Trout FD 4800 DK 5700
Opponent - BAL (Bundy) Park - @LAA
FD - 14.34 DK - 11.36

Without any 1 offense that is demanding our attention, I figure we can take a look at the top overall hitter on the slate. Mike Trout and the Angels will host the Orioles and face off with Dylan Bundy. Bundy, a big prospect, has a lot to learn. He's allowed a .328 wOBA and 21 home runs in just over 100 innings. Trout is sitting at a .473 wOBA against righties, though I doubt I needed to tell you that. Even with an injury hampering him for much of the season, Trout already has 20 homers against righties. This is the best player on the slate against an average pitcher. If you can afford him, go ahead and pull the trigger. The Angels may not be the most exciting offense to target, but none of these really are.

Robbie Grossman FD 2900 DK 3800
Opponent - MIL (Suter) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.18 DK - 7.92
Byron Buxton FD 2500 DK 3000
Opponent - MIL (Suter) Park - @MIN
FD - 7.1 DK - 5.95

We've touched a bit on this Twins team with Chris Gimenez, Eduardo Esobar, and Brian Dozier in the IF. We'll now move into the OF and look at a duo of Robbie Grossman and Byron Buxton. First things first, Brent Suter is an average lefty and you can take his current numbers with a grain of salt. Grossman is a .380 wOBA hitter against lefties and does a great job of getting on base by any means. Buxton on the other hand, is a better fit for tournaments. He's a huge swinger that likes to steal bases and make things happen. At his price, he can light things up in a tourney. The Twins are a team I will have a lot of exposure to, though I'm not sure about a full 4-man stack in cash games.

Adam Duvall FD 3600 DK 4700
Opponent - SD (Chacin) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.95 DK - 8.49

We touched on Votto at 1B and will revisit this Reds team again in the OF with Adam Duvall. The Red face off with Jhoulys Chacin, at home in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. GAB is known to be one of the top hitting parks in the league and it's actually ranked 2nd for home runs behind just Coors Field. While Chacin is worse against lefties, he's not great against righties in the road either with a .323 wOBA. He's allowed 15 dingers and will likely have some big problems in this park. Duvall has held a .351 wOBA against them over the past 2 years and has as much power as annoying in the game. He can hit 2 homers without. Linking an eye. This entire Reds team is a very interesting stack if you subscribe to Jhoulys Chacin being pitiful on the road.

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