Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/8/17

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Pitcher

Chris Sale FD 11500 DK 12600
Opponent - TB (Pruitt) Park - @TB
FD - 46.56 DK - 30.74

Unless you're doing DFS wrong, your cash game SP1 is gonna come down to two choices on Tuesday: Chris Sale or Corey Kluber. Both guys are legit aces, both are heavy favorites, the prices are similar (Sale cheaper on FD, Kluber cheaper on DK) and the projections for both are great. We're siding with Sale, but if you want to go with Kluber, I wouldn't argue too fiercely about it. And while both options are solid, there's a chance this call could make or break your cash game lineups, so it's vital to get it right. Sale has arguably been the best pitcher in the game this season, leading the league in Ks/9 and FIP with the second-best xFIP (to Kluber, coincidentally), and fourth-best ERA. He's almost never a bad play, and he gets a positive park shift going into Tropicana Field. Those facts alone are enough to justify the call, but we like the matchup here, too. The Rays are below average against LHP this season (96 wRC+) with a robust 25.6 K%. And while the addition of Adeiny Hechavarria and the return of Wilson Ramos have cut into their K tendencies, one of those guys we just mentioned is Adeiny Hechavarria. So, ya know, whatever. Every other hitter among their projected starters has a K rate over 20% against LHP this season, so there's upside in bunches for Sale tonight.

Jose Quintana FD 8500 DK 10500
Opponent - SF (Blach) Park - @SF
FD - 34.81 DK - 22.84

If you're determined to pivot off of Sale/Kluber -- a needless risk for cash games -- Quintana is interesting. You're not going to get the upside the studs can deliver, but then again you're not paying for it. Also working in Quintana's favor is the best pitcher's park in baseball and the fact that the Giants offense is sucky (advanced baseball jargon). San Fran ranks 26th in wRC+, 28th in wOBA and 29th in ISO vs. LHP this season. The one thing they don't do is strikeout -- no projected starter has a K rate over 20% vs. lefties -- and that hurts the case for Quintana significantly. But he's still a better pitcher than the prices you'll have to pay, so if you're got some super expensive bats you can't live without, he'll help you fit them in. He's been kind of blah since coming over the NL (and most of 2017, in fact), but he's still a guy with .302 wOBA allowed since the beginning of last season, and he's fanning close to 10 per 9 IP this season, so we're still believers in his skills.

Catcher

Brian McCann FD 2700 DK 3500
Opponent - CHW (Holland) Park - @CHW
FD - 10.68 DK - 8.1

We're going LvL in search of some savings + upside at catcher, and we don't think doing so with McCann constitutes a hot take. For one thing, the southpaw in question is Derek Holland, who's getting reamed in 2017 with a 6+ FIP. He's been better against lefties, as you'd expect, but Mac is no pushover. He's handled lefties well more or less consistently throughout his career, and he's been especially strong in the split in 2017, with a .359 wOBA and .261 ISO. Of course, the sample size is limited, but these numbers aren't total outliers compared to his lifetime stats, so we're buying in. Also factoring in here: the Astros have opened with the highest implied total on the board, so run-producing opportunities (plural) should present themselves. Our only real worry here is whether or not McCann gets the start. The Astros are loaded and deep, and with Evan Gattis and a number of DH options, the ways they can attack a matchup are limited only by A.J. Hinch's imagination.

Russell Martin FD 3100 DK 3700
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.52 DK - 7.98

The projection system is loving the Blue Jays against CC tonight, so just get ready for that. Sabathia hasn't been terrible this season, but a 4.62 xFIP vs. righties, plus decreasing Ks and increasing BBs is enough to the whet the appetite of any algorithm. Meanwhile, Martin is putting up another solid season, albeit partially obscured by a .226 batting average. Don't be overly concerned about that. He still delivers a sturdy floor, thanks to his home near the top of the order and a career-high 15 BB%. And the upside isn't bad, either (12 HRs in 320 ABs).

Consider: Gary Sanchez

First Base

Ryan Zimmerman FD 3300 DK 4500
Opponent - MIA (Worley) Park - @WSH
FD - 12.25 DK - 9.36

In case you haven't noticed, Zimmerman's 2017 rebirth isn't solely a product of lefty-mashing. He's also putting up a .384 wOBA and .264 ISO against RHP, a fact that has not eluded the projection system. It's got him pegged as one of the top overall producers at first base tonight, so the fact that his pricing is pretty moderate (especially on FanDuel) is just a bonus here. He's getting Vance Worley tonight, who's kind of a tough guy to project right now. His ERA is bad (5.31), but his FIP is solid (3.56). Most of those numbers were earned coming out of the bullpen, and starting is a different beast, so it's hard to know how much to trust them. He's also coming off of seven scores IP against the Nats last week, but we're not sweating that. We've seen enough of Worley over the course of his career to know he's a low-K guy who can be had. He's also got slight reverse splits over his career, and righties have given him extra trouble in 2017 (.359 wOBA allowed).

Hanley Ramirez FD 2900 DK 3400
Opponent - TB (Pruitt) Park - @TB
FD - 10.36 DK - 8.07

Ok. These prices are just too low. We prefer Hanley against lefties, but when we can get him for the cost of scrub while facing a nondescript 27-year-old rookie, we're happy to take a chance. His numbers against RHP are down only slightly from those he put up in his 2016 bounceback campaign, and according to batted ball data, they should be even better. His .328 wOBA in the split is nearly .30 points lower than his xWOBA, which confirms that his .274 BABIP in 2017 is more the product of misfortune than of declining skills.

Consider: Albert Pujols, Edwin Encarnacion

Second Base

Josh Harrison FD 3100 DK 3900
Opponent - DET (Boyd) Park - @PIT
FD - 11.01 DK - 9.15

Harrison is nobody's idea of a bopper, but when certain factors align, he's not a bad cash game play. Tonight, those factors consist pretty much entirely of Matt Boyd and his pitching badness. The Tigers lefty has 5.09 xFIP and a .357 wOBA allowed this season (.362 vs righties), so even though PNC Park saps offensive upside, we like Harrison's chances to deliver value at these prices. He's got a .363 wOBA and .176 ISO against righties this season, and the Pirates are slated for a nice 5+ implied run total, so he should be sitting in nice spot batting second in this lineup.

Jose Altuve FD 4400 DK 5400
Opponent - CHW (Holland) Park - @CHW
FD - 14.05 DK - 11.78

If you're hunting a little more upside (and have salary to burn), go ahead and pay up for Altuve and the chance to pick on Derek Holland. Altuve's .427 wOBA/.245 ISO vs. LHP is good enough to put in play against 90 percent of the lefties in the league, but against Holland (.397 wOBA vs. righties) those numbers are just too good to pass up. Granted, he'll be tough to fit in if you're doing the wise thing and paying up for pitchers in your cash games. But the projection system has Altuve as one of the best producers on the slate regardless of position, so you're probably going to want some exposure to him in one format or another.

Consider: Brian Dozier

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Shortstop

Zack Cozart FD 3100 DK 4200
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.51 DK - 8.25

Luis Perdomo has a monstrous ground ball rate vs. righties (68%), and we admit, that makes us a little nervous. But if dig a little, we can find reasons to believe in Cozart here. First, and most obvious: Great American Smallpark. Always a factor. Second, Perdomo's .324 wOBA allowed to righties isn't terrible, but it's higher than league average. And perhaps most importantly, Cozart mashes sinkers and curveballs, which account for 80 percent of the pitches Perdomo has thrown this season. He's got a .472 slugging percentage and .181 ISO vs. righty sinkers since the beginning of last season and a .565 slug and .239 ISO against righty curves. Overall against RHP this season, he's sporting a .382 wOBA and .231 ISO, so yeah, Perdomo's groundball tendencies don't seem quite as threatening as they did a few minutes ago.

Xander Bogaerts FD 2800 DK 3500
Opponent - TB (Pruitt) Park - @TB
FD - 9.25 DK - 7.39

Bogaerts' power outage in 2017 is disconcerting, but the prices are at a point now where we don't really care that much. Shortstop has been a pretty gruesome position to fill lately, so we're happy to save some salary and move on. There's not really anything in Bogaerts' numbers anybody would find exciting (.277/.336/.412 vs. RHP), but this is a price/weak pitcher play, pure and simple. Austin Pruitt may not be quite as bad as his 5.65 ERA suggests, but righties are roughing him up (.374), so don't shy away from the RvR matchup here.

Consider: Francisco Lindor

Third Base

Josh Donaldson FD 3900 DK 4500
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @TOR
FD - 14.04 DK - 10.62

Donaldson isn't destroying southpaws the way he has in the past, but we should probably remember that the 2017 sample size vs. LHP is still just 57 PAs. That's miniscule. And while there's nothing wrong with the .339 wOBA/.192 ISO that he's posted in the split this season, until we're given ample reason to believe otherwise, we're still expecting regression toward the numbers he's put up over the last couple of years .399/.271.

Asdrubal Cabrera FD 2800 DK 3400
Opponent - TEX (Cashner) Park - @NYM
FD - 9.78 DK - 7.68

Oh brother. Andrew Cashner. The bane of approximately 18 DFS slates this season -- one for every start he's made. Don't ask me to explain how this jobber is maintaining a 3.36 ERA because it almost defies explanation. Ok, I guess we could point to the fact that he's doing a decent job of limiting hard contact, but we just can't expect these results to persist when he's walking nearly as many guys as he strikes out (4.63 Ks/9, 3.62 BBs/9). xFIP isn't a perfect predictor, but not many guys can continue outpitching their expected ERA by two full runs. He's kept it up long enough that we'll probably avoid heavy exposure to stacks against him for now, but we're not running from the guy entirely. A cheap Cabrera looks like a solid place to pick on him. Cabrera doesn't come with much upside, but he's going to put the ball in play, and he's hitting .322 vs. RHP since the beginning of last season. The wOBA in the split is decent at .332 this year, but it'd be higher if he drew a walk every now and then. Cashner should help with that, but really, what we're looking for here is just a few run-scoring and/or RBI opportunities against a pitcher we still don't believe in. At these prices, it won't take much more than that to see a solid return on the investment.

Consider: Miguel Sano, Eugenio Suarez

Outfield

Domingo Santana FD 3400 DK 3700
Opponent - MIN (Mejia) Park - @MIN
FD - 11.93 DK - 9.29

We'd like this play quite a bit more in Milwaukee, where all those fly balls Adalberto Mejia gives up would have a better chance of leaving the yard, but we'll take what we can get. Santana is affordable, and he rakes against lefties with a career .378 wOBA and .237 ISO. He's been in a bit of a funk lately, but we don't see that as a big deal. A few reasons why: A) Hot/cold streaks begin and end without warning. Best to take the longview and bet on a player's track record; B) We're talking about a 10-game stretch in a 240-game career; C) This 3-for-33 skid has included a grand total of five ABs vs. lefties; D) Adalberto Mejia is nobody to be afraid of. He's got a 5.27 xFIP vs. righties this season, so he makes a nice slump-busting candidate.

Shin-Soo Choo FD 3300 DK 3900
Opponent - NYM (Flexen) Park - @NYM
FD - 11.05 DK - 8.64

The good news here is Choo is facing Chris Flexen, a rookie with a 7.18 xFIP through two MLB starts. The bad news is that you have to get to Flexen early, because the dude hasn't lasted long. He's gone just three innings in each of his first two starts, but has still managed to give up 13 hits and 9 runs in that time. More good news: the Mets bullpen ranks 24th in the league with a 4.49 xFIP, so the good times don't have to end when Flexen exits. Choo is beyond his prime, but he's still doing solid work at 35 years old, with a .337 wOBA, .367 OBP, 14 HRs and 9 SBs this season. Plus, his spot at the top of the order carries plenty of value, especially if the Rangers get on a roll tonight.

Max Kepler FD 2700 DK 3000
Opponent - MIL (Garza) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.89 DK - 8.55

The Twins had Kepler batting sixth the last time they faced a righty, which is kind of a bummer. If he's down there again, it'll dampen our enthusiasm for this pick, but if he's back near the top of the order, he looks like one of the better OF value plays of the day on either site. Kepler owns a .355 wOBA and .207 ISO vs. RHP this season, which doesn't make him an All-Star, but it does make him a steal at these prices. And that's before we even consider Matt Garza's 5.85 xFIP vs. LHP.

Consider: Jose Bautista, Starling Marte, Kole Calhoun

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