Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Chris Durell

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/11/17

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Rich HillRich Hill FD 9300 DK 12200
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @LAD
FD - 40.55 DK - 26.53

There is a glaring difference between the two sites tonight when looking at the pitching landscape. Rich Hill's salary continues to ride in the $12K+ range on DraftKings as he always seems to find himself on a slate with limited pitching. It is nearly impossible to pay that kind of price in cash games for a pitcher who is averaging just 5.2 innings pitched per start but he does have a ton of upside with a 10.63 K/9 rate. The good news and reason he tops the list tonight is the FanDuel PTS/$ value as his price stays under $10K in a game where the Dodgers are early -300 favorites.

Carlos CarrascoCarlos Carrasco FD 8900 DK 9700
Opponent - TB (Faria) Park - @TB
FD - 37.52 DK - 24.74

Carrasco has very similar upside with a 9.78 K/9 rate and elite 12.5% swinging strike rate but also comes with a ton of risk as he has not been very good lately. He has given up five earned runs in back to back starts and three times in July but sits with an unsustainable .358 BABIP in that time so I fully expect some positive regression coming his way. It could very well come tonight in an elite matchup vs. the Tampa Bay Rays who have a league worst .237 wOBA and ridiculous 28% strikeout rate over the last seven days. His best value is on DraftKings where his price has dipped below $9K for the first time since opening night.


Buster PoseyBuster Posey FD 3300 DK 3800
Opponent - WSH (Jackson) Park - @WSH
FD - 10.39 DK - 8

It was very close for me at the top of the catcher position tonight between Posey and Contreras but I lean Posey due to the big discount on DraftKings. He has also been the more consistent hitter and has the track record to prove it. What may seem like a boring season due to the surrounding pieces on an underperforming offense has been another Posey-like season as he is hitting .321 with a .377 wOBA and 137 wRC+. He gets a nice power boost tonight facing Edwin Jackson who sits with a 5.31 xFIP and has given up six home runs in his last four starts. At a price under $4K on both sites, I trust Posey in all formats.
Austin BarnesAustin Barnes FD 2300 DK 3300
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @LAD
FD - 10.65 DK - 8.44

Here is a slice of what I wrote about Barnes yesterday:

He has provided us a limited 165 plate appearance sample size but has impressed with a .395 wOBA and 148 wRC+ and while the average sits a little lower vs. left-handed pitching, he has still provided the power numbers with a .387 wOBA and 142 wRC+. First game back it is a bit of a risk but the low salary more than makes up for it.

He is in the lineup Thursday night so it appears the hand is fine after getting hit last Sunday and the price is the exact same. I will have just as much Barnes as I did last night on both sites.




First Base

Miguel CabreraMiguel Cabrera FD 3400 DK 3600
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @DET
FD - 13.84 DK - 10.48

Miggy not only tops the raw points projections tonight but also sits Top 5 when looking at PTS/$ as he comes with a very affordable price on both sites. The future Hall of Famer is definitely on the decline this season but you are not paying for what he used to be. He still provides some pop in his bat with 13 home runs and 53 RBI this year but the bulk of the projection comes from his spot in the lineup, high implied runs for the Tigers and the matchup vs. Kyle Gibson. His best value is on DraftKings as he makes a great play in all formats if you are paying up for both pitchers tonight.


Eric ThamesEric Thames FD 2700 DK 4100
Opponent - CIN (Bailey) Park - @MIL
FD - 13.83 DK - 10.7

I wrote him up yesterday when Kyle Gibson was the projected starter but he got pushed back until tonight so it didn't work out. The good news is that he gets an elite matchup tonight which put him right at the top of the PTS/$ value rankings. He faces Homer Bailey who, in his defense, has flashed a couple times this season but overall it has been a disaster. He is coming off a start vs. the Cardinals in which he gave up 10 earned runs in 3.1 innings. It was the fifth time in nine starts he has given up five or more earned runs which give him an ugly 8.86 ERA. Thames will most likely show up in the FanDuel optimizer tonight with a sub $3K price tag but he should be considered in GPP's only on DraftKings as he hasn't had a multi-hit game since July 22.


Also Consider: Ryon Healy(OAK)



Second Base

Ian KinslerIan Kinsler FD 3700 DK 4200
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @DET
FD - 11.54 DK - 9.22

I was so excited to target against Kyle Gibson last night but it turns out we had to wait an extra day. Instead of the Brewers we get to pick on him with the Tigers tonight who know him well. Gibson makes a great pitcher to target as he walks way too many batters(4.23 BB/9) gives up a high wOBA to both sides of the plate(.384 vs. LH & .373 vs. RH) and he also gives up the long ball(19.3% HR/FB rate). For Kinsler, it has been a down season as he is hitting just .250 overall but he has been better in the second half with a .338 wOBA and 110 wRC+ and has seen his K rate drop by almost 3%. All things considered, I will be using Kinsler in all formats tonight.

Neil WalkerNeil Walker FD 2400 DK 2700
Opponent - PHI (Pivetta) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.47 DK - 8.06

Walker ended up in the top optimized lineups last night and came through in a big way. He picked up four hits including his 10th home run of the season and no surprise as he tops the PTS/$ rankings at second base once again tonight. He faces Nick Pivetta who has been the worst pitcher on the Phillies staff this season with a 5.89 ERA, 4.59 xFIP and has given up just under 40% hard contact against. The only issue with the matchup is that Pivetta has been better vs. left-handed batters but mid $2K price tag on both sites far outweighs the risk.


Also Consider: Robinson Cano(SEA)



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Corey SeagerCorey Seager FD 3700 DK 4800
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @LAD
FD - 11.83 DK - 9.13

At first glance, you would not think Corey Seager would be at the top of the raw projections in a lefty/lefty matchup. Dig deep and we can clearly see why. The 2016 Rookie of the Year has been a huge part of the Dodgers success hitting at the top of the lineup and has actually been better vs. left-handed pitching with a .423 wOBA, 134 wRC+and elite .256 ISO. While Clayton Richard is coming off six inning shutout, he has been borderline trash this season and has given up four or more earned runs in six of his last eight starts and 12 times all season.

Marcus SemienMarcus Semien FD 3200 DK 3400
Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @OAK
FD - 10.41 DK - 8.29

For value up the middle, I will go back to Oakland and ride with Marcus Semien. He was limited to just 15 games in the first half due to injury and because of that struggled mightily. He is starting to pick things up in the second half and has hits in 15 of his last 18 games with three home runs and 14 runs scored. I also mentioned yesterday that the Oakland Coliseum is not the downgrade for hitters like it used to be as it ranks in the top half in both overall runs and home runs this season. Don't expect a lot from Semien but his value price sure helps you load up a couple big bats with some top pitchers tonight.


Also Consider: Xander Bogaerts(BOS)



Third Base

Kris BryantKris Bryant FD 3900 DK 4500
Opponent - ARI (Walker) Park - @ARI
FD - 13.09 DK - 10.09

Bryant lines up as a great play on both sites tonight but really stands out for me on DraftKings as the 12th in salary at the third base position. The Cubs got Thursday night off after losing the last two games in the series vs. the Giants and get a nice park upgrade and matchup tonight. They face Taijaun Walker who has been a serviceable pitcher this season but has struggled in the second half with the long ball giving one up in four straight starts(16% HR/FB rate) and he has also been worse at home running an ERA that is just over a run worse at Chase Field. For Bryant, his numbers have dipped a bit from his MVP season but has still been a very consistent option with a .380 wOBA and 134 wRC+ overall and has hits in 10 of his last 11 games.

Travis ShawTravis Shaw FD 3300 DK 4600
Opponent - CIN (Bailey) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.81 DK - 9.09

I will take Bryant all day on DraftKings at the same price point but on FanDuel if you are looking to go more of a balanced approach, take a close look at Travis Shaw. He picked up two more hits last night vs. the Twins and now has hits in five straight and six of his last seven games. He has already set a career-high with 24 home runs and although he hasn't hit one since July 27, he gets a great spot to change that tonight. Homer Bailey is easily one of the top 3 worst pitchers on the slate and is coming off his worst start of the season. He scares nobody with strikeouts(5.48 K/9) and walks over four batters per nine and has also given up five or more earned runs in five of his nine starts this season. The matchup and price on FanDuel is just too much to pass up tonight. Safe in all formats.


Also Consider: Kyle Seager(SEA)





Mike TroutMike Trout FD 5100 DK 5700
Opponent - SEA (Gonzales) Park - @SEA
FD - 14.76 DK - 11.69

On a night with limited high-end pitchers, it sure makes it easier to stomach the high prices for some of the games elite players. Tonight the million dollar question in the outfield is Harper or Trout as both face weak pitching. I lean Trout slightly as he faces Marco Gonzalez who has had issues keeping the ball in the ballpark in his young career. He struggled for both the Cards and Mariners in AAA with an xFIP over 4.50 and in his first two starts has given up five earned runs in each including four long balls. Trout's first half ended early due to injury but he has more than made up for it in the second half hitting .365 with a .468 wOBA and 171 wRC+ in 23 games.
Yoenis CespedesYoenis Cespedes FD 3400 DK 4200
Opponent - PHI (Pivetta) Park - @PHI
FD - 11.8 DK - 9.08

I mentioned targeting Pivetta earlier with Neil Walker but also mentioned how he has reverse splits and has been very good vs. left-handed batters. The same can not be said against righties as he has given up a .412 wOBA, .643 Slugging Percentage and 45% hard contact rate. Whoa! Enter Yoenies Cespedes who has dealt with some injuries this season but comes with some big power upside when healthy. Yes, he has been better vs. southpaws for his career but the numbers are pretty close in 2017 and he holds a very respectable .339 wOBA and 114 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers. As always, everything in this game comes down to salary and that is why he is listed as the price is down which elevates the PTS/$ tonight in this elite matchup.
Chris TaylorChris Taylor FD 3800 DK 4800
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @LAD
FD - 11.85 DK - 9.83
Chris TaylorEnrique Hernandez FD 2200 DK 3300 
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @LAD
FD - 10.5 DK - 8.17

Back on the Dodger train tonight as they once again facing a southpaw. They have dominated pitchers no matter what arm they throw with but they have been exceptionally good vs. lefties with a .348 wOBA and 116 wRC+. They even added to those numbers last night as they chased Anthony Banda after four innings and three earned runs. Tonight they get another top matchup facing Clayton Richard who has given up four or more earned runs in six of his last eight starts and sits with an 18.9% HR/FB rate for the season. Taylor and Hernandez have nearly identical numbers vs. southpaws with a wOBA over .390 and wRC+ of 150. With the very low price for Hernandez, it makes it very easy to fit a top pitcher or two(DK) and still stack four high-upside Dodger bats.



Also Consider: Chris Young(BOS), David Peralta(ARI), Domingo Santana(MIL)







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6 Visitor Comments

  1. Contreras headed to the DL with a bad hammy.

  2. Kinsler is actually $3,700 for 2B. You need to update that.

  3. Update coming. Sorry for confusion.

  4. Date is wrong today. I’m seeing 2016? I’m thinking Minnesota stack today!!!! Appreciate the picks Chris! Yesterday was frustrating!

  5. Wow. Hard to get readers when the date is wrong. So sorry everyone! All updated.

  6. Yea I was going crazy trying to find something to read this morning. I work nights so I’m always bored in the AM before I sleep.

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