Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/21/17

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Pitcher

Chris Archer FD 10200 DK 12400
Opponent - TOR (Rowley) Park - @TB
FD - 38.92 DK - 25.59

The pitching situation is nowhere near as dire as it was on Monday night's abbreviated slate, but even with a few interesting options, the projection system is pretty locked in on Archer for SP1 in cash games. The Blue Jays have struggled with right-handed pitching all season (23rd in wRC+), and a quick dive into the pitch values tells us that Archer's 37% slider usage could be problematic. Other than Kendrys Morales, and, to a lesser extent Nori Aoki, every other hitter in the Toronto lineup has reacted to the right-handed slider as if they've never encountered a breaking ball before. To wit: Josh Donaldson's .231 batting average in 2017 against righty sliders is the third-best mark on the team, and nobody else is over .207. But if that's too granular for you, just trust in Archer's 11.2 Ks/9 and Tampa's pitcher-friendly park and lock him in.

Lance Lynn FD 8000 DK 7400
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @STL
FD - 36.69 DK - 24.07

While you could argue for a couple of other, cheaper plays over Archer, we're going to have a hard time using anybody but Lynn at SP2 in cash formats. His early projections are strong enough that you could even consider him as an SP1 in tourneys if you just wanted to splurge on bats, and from an overall value perspective, he's the runaway play of the day at these prices. Facing a San Diego offense that ranks among the league's worst vs. RHP (.305 wOBA), Lynn has opened a -190 favorite, which puts him on equal footing with Archer and Carlos Carrasco in at least one regard. He obviously can't match the ceiling those guys give you, but that's embedded in the price. Plus, his modest 7.4 Ks/9 should get a boost from the Padres, who strikeout more often than just about anybody else against righties (25.3 K%).

Patrick Corbin FD 8700 DK 9400
Opponent - NYM (Milone) Park - @NYM
FD - 25 DK - 16.55

In case you've missed it, Corbin has been kinda decent this year. I mean, 8.75 Ks/9 and a 3.79 xFIP isn't pinging radars in Cooperstown or anything, but it's a stark improvement over last season's disappointment, and he's had a handful of outings in which he was flirting with something in the neighborhood of dominance. In fact, he's coming off two of the most unlikely examples, having shut out the Cubs and Astros over 15.1 IP while fanning 15 and yielding just nine hits and two walks. Sample size caveats obviously apply, but those are two of the top four offenses in baseball vs. LHP this season, so it's worth noting. The middle of the Mets' order could give him trouble, but other than Cespedes, Conforto and Wilmer Flores, there's not much here to worry about.

Catcher

Gary Sanchez FD 3500 DK 4800
Opponent - DET (Boyd) Park - @DET
FD - 13.68 DK - 10.5

Over a year into his career, you've no doubt heard somebody reference Gary Sanchez's reverse splits by now. And yeah, the surface numbers look a bit weird (.301 career batting average vs. RHP, .214 vs. LHP). But c'mon now. Batting average? We can do better than that -- and there's no shortage of numbers to choose from. Since we already referenced BA, let's start there. The first thing we notice is that his BABIP looks weirdly low at .211. There's any number of factors that could lead to a low average on balls in play, but that seems extreme. And yeah, based on Statcast's batted ball data, he should be hitting .255 vs. LHP. So, not great, but a lot better than .214, and positive regression has already begun (he hit .189 vs. lefties last year). What's more compelling, though, is the fact that his power numbers are actually better against southpaws (.321 career ISO), which is in line for the vast majority of hitters over the long run. So anyway, all that to say, you don't have to fade Gary Sanchez just because he's facing a lefty. And you especially don't need to fade him against Matt Boyd, who is a bad lefty with a .370 wOBA vs. righties this season. The only concern here is the price tag, which could stretch you pretty thin if you're paying the recommended amounts at starting pitcher.

Mike Zunino FD 2400 DK 3600
Opponent - ATL (Sims) Park - @ATL
FD - 9.57 DK - 7.15

If you can stomach a K rate approaching 40%, Zunino can give you Sanchez-like upside at a steep discount. Of course, you're taking on significant risk of a goose egg, but you get what you pay for, I suppose. The matchup with Lucas Sims is a pretty intriguing one, too. The Braves rookie has shown nice swing-and-miss stuff throughout the minors, but it hasn't yet emerged at the big-level (just four starts). He also has a history of control and home run problems, and while he's gotten the walks under control in 2017 -- both in Triple-A and in Atlanta -- the long ball continues to be an issue. That's good news for a boom-or-bust guy like Zunino, who has a .261 ISO vs. RHP since the beginning of last season.

First Base

Paul Goldschmidt FD 4100 DK 5300
Opponent - NYM (Milone) Park - @NYM
FD - 14.71 DK - 11.58

Here's a fun fact: Goldy only needs 1 HR, 8 runs and 4 RBIs in the next 10 days or so to get to 30/100/100 by Sept. 1. And if he really decides to go nuts, 20 SBs isn't out of the question either. Of course all of that is only tangentially related to the matter at hand, but the point stands: Goldschmidt is awesome. Here's another fun fact perhaps more germane to tonight's specific slate: Goldy has never had a season with a sub-.400 wOBA or a sub-.200 ISO vs. LHP. Also relevant: Tommy Milone isn't good. He's coming in with a 7.91 ERA and a 6.59 FIP and he's given up a .391 wOBA vs. righties since the beginning of last season.

Chris Davis FD 3400 DK 4200
Opponent - OAK (Blackburn) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.43 DK - 9.17

Paul Blackburn has been good enough to get by through his first nine big-league starts, and maybe that could continue. He's doesn't walk a lot of guys, he never gave up loads of homers in the minors, and he's always maintained a pretty high ground ball rate. So yeah, maybe that 3.49 ERA is real -- but we kinda doubt it. What looks more likely is that he's running hot in nearly everyway you can (HR/FB ratio, BABIP, strand rate) and at some point regression is coming for him. It's just exceedingly difficult to succeed in the big leagues if you're striking out less than 4 guys per 9 IP. And Blackburn's inability to miss bats is a big part of the attraction with Crush tonight. The strikeout has always been Davis' kryptonite, and he's whiffing more than ever this year (36%), which obscures the fact that he's still delivering the power numbers we expect (.212 ISO, .252 ISO vs. RHP).

Second Base

DJ LeMahieu FD 3000 DK 4000
Opponent - KC (Duffy) Park - @KC
FD - 9.67 DK - 7.89

LeMahieu isn't a guy we often turn to outside of Coors Field, but if you're OK with giving up some ceiling for a sturdy floor, he's always a guy we can look at in cash formats when he's facing a lefty. His numbers against southpaws have been climbing steadily every year since 2012, and he's brushing up against some pretty impressive heights in 2017 with a .385/.439/.532 triple slash and a .412 wOBA. Obviously, those numbers benefit some from his home park, and Kauffman Stadium is no Coors Field, but it's maybe not as bad as its reputation. It's often dismissed as a terrible place to hit, but that's really only true if you're hunting home runs -- and that's never what we're doing with LeMahieu. It's true that Kaufman is one of the worst parks in baseball for HR factors, but in terms of boosting overall offense, it's actually a net-plus, boosting every kind of hit except the home run and helping suppress Ks.

Neil Walker FD 3300 DK 3900
Opponent - SF (Samardzija) Park - @SF
FD - 10.03 DK - 7.61

Now when it comes to bad places to hit, this one is legit. And really, at similar prices, we'd probably rather just go with LeMahieu. But Walker deserves a look in all formats, and he could be especially interesting in GPPs, where ownership will probably be low. On one hand, that makes sense. AT&T is a tough place to hit, and by a lot of measures, Jeff Samardzija has been much better than his surface stats suggest. On the other hand, lefties have handled Samardzija just fine regardless of location with a .347 overall wOBA and a .353 wOBA in San Fran. Meanwhile, Walker is at his best from the left side. He's got a .366 wOBA, .208 ISO and a career low 13.4% K rate vs. RHP this season.

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Shortstop

Trevor Story FD 2500 DK 3500
Opponent - KC (Duffy) Park - @KC
FD - 9.75 DK - 7.58

Ok, so I know we just got finished talking about how Kaufman kills homers, but here's the thing: these prices are just too low for a guy with these numbers vs. LHP. Story is the quintessential all-or-nothing play, but even though in Ks in 35% of PAs, he's still putting up a .293/.389/.639 triple slash with a .422 wOBA and .346 ISO in the split. You just don't get that kind of production at punt prices very often. And even though Duffy is a solid arm, righties can get to him (4.67 xFIP, .337 wOBA).

Tim Beckham FD 3500 DK 4700
Opponent - OAK (Blackburn) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.24 DK - 9.75

Will future baseball historian's look back on this period and dub it the Tim Beckham Era? Only time will tell. Here's what we know: Since coming over from Tampa in an unheralded deadline move, he's hitting .438 with a .511 wOBA and a .338 ISO. So yeah, it's seems pretty obvious that he's destined to revolutionize the game. In all seriousness, though, we don't typically like to pay up for a hot streak, but what Beckham is doing can't really be ignored, and he's always shown pretty solid pop vs. RHP (career .192 ISO). If you've got some salary to burn, he's definitely in play.

Third Base

Kris Bryant FD 4300 DK 5000
Opponent - CIN (Bailey) Park - @CIN
FD - 14.69 DK - 11.25

The corpse of Homer Bailey will be dragged to the mound at the Great American Ballpark tonight, so the question isn't whether you should get some exposure, it's which Cubs bat(s) do you choose. Bryant is obviously never a bad play, and while he's always handled righties well, his numbers are actually up across the board in 2017. Fewer Ks, more walks, a .290/.386/.537 triple slash, with a .390 wOBA and a .247 ISO. In other words, he's pretty much the same guy we thought he was, even if his overall surface numbers aren't quite as gaudy this year. Meanwhile, Homer Bailey looks like he's done. He's got an 8.44 ERA, a 5.71 FIP and more than 5 BBs/9. So even though Bryant won't come cheap, we think he's a worthwhile investment.

Jedd Gyorko FD 3000 DK 4000
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @STL
FD - 12 DK - 9.22

If you need to be a little more frugal, no worries. Gyorko won't break your bank, and he's in a nice spot here against Clayton Richard. The Padres lefty can be frustrating to pick on at times, because he gets a lot of ground balls, but he's getting hit hard by righties this season with a .370 wOBA allowed and a 36% hard contact rate. Meanwhile, Gyorko is mashing southpaws in 2017 with a .365 wOBA and .233 ISO.

Consider: Luis Valbuena, for salary relief.

Outfield

Mark Trumbo FD 3400 DK 4100
Opponent - OAK (Blackburn) Park - @BAL
FD - 13 DK - 9.77
Adam Jones FD 3000 DK 4400
Opponent - OAK (Blackburn) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.68 DK - 9.82

If Paul Blackburn topples the projection system tonight, at least it won't be a lonely fall -- you can also count Vegas among the non-believers, as the Orioles' opening implied total is pushing six, making it the highest on the board. Trumbo and Jones don't have the sexiest numbers in the Baltimore lineup vs. RHP this season, but at these prices, they're fine with a .178 and .191 wOBA prior to Monday night. We'll count on Camden Yard, Blackburn, and a shaky Oakland bullpen to help with the rest.

A.J. Pollock FD 3200 DK 4100
Opponent - NYM (Milone) Park - @NYM
FD - 12.11 DK - 10.25

If you end up able to fit him in, don't hesitate to sub this pick for J.D. Martinez -- all we're really looking for here is another righty with whom to take advantage of Tommy Milone amble generosity. As mentioned earlier, he's incredibly vulnerable, and that .322 ISO he's giving up to righties this season is exactly what we're looking for to boost Pollock. The speedster's on-base numbers are down against southpaws this season, but the power numbers (.211) ISO remain enticing.

Rhys Hoskins FD 3100 DK 3700
Opponent - MIA (Straily) Park - @PHI
FD - 11.65 DK - 8.87

Ok. Sure. We'll keep playing him. We said when he got called up Hoskins had a chance to make some noise, and the prices still haven't caught up to the production (5 HRs with more BBs than Ks through 11 games). Jose Urena has put up solid surface numbers this season, but the advanced stats 4.90 FIP, 5.39 xFIP) his 3.61 ERA is a mirage. As for Hoskins, he's more than lived up to the scouting report so far. He followed up last year's massive breakout (38 HRs in Double-A) by cutting down on Ks and supplying 29 bombs in 115 games in Triple-A before getting his shot with the big-league club. So yeah, the power looks legit, and even though the MLB sample is tiny, it's no less encouraging that the positive contact trends have been carried over. You're no longer getting him at punt prices, but we're still happy to pay for him, especially considering last week's power surge came at Petco and AT&T. If his power plays in those parks, he should enjoy Citizens Bank, which is one of the top-10 venues in baseball for HR factors.

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