Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel - BMW Championship
DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).
— BMW Championship (@BMWchamps) September 11, 2017
That's right, the BMW Championship returns this week as the field is now down to 70 with only the Top 30 moving on to East Lake next week for the Tour Championship. The tournament has alternated venues for six straight years and this year it will be held at Conway Farms Golf Club. The course has hosted this event twice, with Jason Day winning back in 2015(-22) and Zach Johnson(-16) winning in 2013. As you can see by the previous winning scores here, it should be a birdie fest. This has me weighing Birdie or Better % right behind Strokes Gained Ball Striking(OTT+APP). I also adjusted the course history on my sheet to only weigh the results from 2015 and 2013 and due to a smaller sample size spread out over five years, that weight is much lower than usual. I will be concentrating a lot more on my key stats and fantasy scoring over the last five tournaments. I will also be using the tools at Fantasy National Golf Club to help sort through the stats over the last 12, 24, and 36 rounds. Another feature I have been using a lot lately is the breakdown of the Par 3's, 4's, and 5's over a selected amount of rounds. The example below is Par 5 Efficiency over the last 12 rounds and looking to further to the right you can see those ranks by distance of the holes(this week all three Par 5's between 550-600 yards).
From a fantasy perspective, we can take a few more shots this week with a stars and scrubs strategy seeing as there is no cut this week. All 70 players will get four rounds of golf so a rough start doesn't necessarily translate to "week over on Friday syndrome". I will be personally lowering my exposure to the big tournaments this week due to the small field and likelihood of many overlapping lineups. I will instead be sticking to single entry and 3-entry max contests which should help in making unique lineups. To help get a feel for ownership, I will be turning to FanShareSports once again and analyzing their most tagged list and sentiment rating in the article below. Here is a look at your top tagged golfers early on Monday afternoon.
With all of that information, let's jump in and take a look at some of the top picks for this week.
Conway Farms Golf Club - Lake Forest, IL
Par 71 - 7,208 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass
**Click to Enlarge**
Top Stats in the Model
- Strokes Gained Off the Tee + Approach
- Par 5 Scoring 550-600 Yards
- Par 4 Scoring
- Bogey Avoidance
- Birdie or Better %
Who the Stats Like
He tops on my stats model this week ranking Top 10 in all key stats and is one of just two players(Spieth the other) to rank Top 10 in all four categories in my overall model(Stats, Course History, Current Form, DK Pts last 5 tournies). Using Fantasy National Golf Club tools I also looked at the last 12 rounds overall and Matsuyama ranks 3rd in SG: Ball Striking and 5th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green.
Matsuyama also played well here back in 2015 with a T7 after ranking 10th in SG: APP, T4 in Par 4 Scoring, and T8 in Par 5 Scoring. Combine all that with the fact he is priced under $10K on both sites and you have a top play in all formats.
Spieth is the other player who ranks Top 10 in all four categories. I chose to list him under stats as he ranks 1st in SG:APP, my highest weighted stat, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 5th in Par 5 BoB%, and 1st in overall Birdie or Better %. Spieth is also the hottest player on Tour overall lately with 95.9 DK points per tournament over his last five and has finished runner-up in both playoff events so far. The last piece of the puzzle is the small sample size of course history in which Spieth finished 16th in 2013 and 13th in 2015. All things considered, he makes a very high upside GPP play but I think you need to pay right up in cash games.
Also Consider: Justin Thomas
Top Course History Targets
The BMW Championship has only been hosted here at Conway Farms twice but Jason Day has definitely enjoyed the time here. He finished T4 in 2013 and then came back in 2015 and won the event in 2015 with a -22 winning score. Dominant is an understatement when talking about the 2015 BMW Championship. He was the only player in the field to gain two or more strokes to the field in every category. He also led the field in Par 5 efficiency.
It's been a season full of highs and lows for Day but he is trending in the right direction at the perfect time and he currently sits just inside the 30 player cutline going into the Tour Championship so I fully expect another top performance here at Conway Farms.
While Jason Day hits on almost all categories and is a nice play in all formats, the same cannot be said for Zach Johnson. His rank and listing here in the article is solely based on his course history as he won the event back in 2013 and finished in a tie for 13th back in 2015. This could work out to be one of the few weeks where one of the top course history players will be slightly under owned and it is due to the poor season he is having. ZJ has just four Top 10's in 22 previous events and ranks near the bottom in almost all stat categories. The one place he stands out is the Around the Green and putting game. If he can hit a few more greens this week, I think he could surprise with one of his best results of the season on a track he enjoys playing.
Also Consider: Daniel Berger
Top Current Form Targets
World Golf Ranking (#14)
FedEx Cup Rank (8th)
Vegas Odds (20/1)
Where it's current form, season form, or just downright consistency you are looking for Paul Casey is right near the top of the list. He has missed just one cut all year(Sony Open in February) and has been a Top 10 machine down the stretch with five in his last eight tournaments and the other three finishes were 26th, T11, T13. Casey also ranks 6th in the field in DraftKings points per tourny over his last five. Statistically, he also fits the model ranking 2nd on the sheet in SG: APP, 7th in SG: OTT+APP, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, and 1st in Bogey Avoidance. He is once again safe in all formats at a sub $10K price on both sites.
World Golf Ranking (#64)
FedEx Cup Rank (40th)
Vegas Odds (70/1)
He ranks down a bit when looking at the five tournament average form ranks on my sheet but Na has been terrific down the stretch with a T4 at the Wyndham Championship, T29 at the Northern Trust, and a T6 at the Dell Technologies Championship. Looking at his recent stat ranks over the last 12 rounds using FNGC, Na ranks right up there with the best. The only concern is the Off the Tee game and that is a bit downgraded this week which works in his favor. I don't trust him in cash but love the value for GPP's this week.
Also Consider: Rickie Fowler
Who is being Mentioned on FanShareSports(DraftKings)
This makes me feel even stronger that stars and scrubs will be the most popular play this week. Even with the highest price tag, Jordan Spieth leads the over tag count and also tops the start ranks. It makes sense as he fits almost anyone's model with top form and stats and has also been good here at Conway Farms(13th, 16h). Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas, and World #1 Dustin Johnson also sit in side the Top 10 of overall tags and all make high upside plays in a stars and scrubs lineup or anchor of a cash game. My favorite GPP play of the bunch is John Rahm who has just nine start calls this week and will likely be the lowest owned of the bunch. Statistically, he hits in my model with a rank of 3rd in SG: OTT+APP, 9th in SG: Putting, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, and 7th in BoB%. He also comes in hot with back to back Top 5's to start the Playoffs.
$8K - $9K Range
Paul Casey trails only Jordan Spieth in overall tags and leads this range in start calls with 19. Jason Day and his excellent course history here(Win, T4) and trending form will also be high owned and sits second in the range with 18 start calls. I wrote up Hideki Matsuyama in the article above and like him even more considering his sentiment rating is the lowest of all the golfers in this range with a high tag count. Another player who I like in this range is Patrick Reed who sits just outside the Top 5 in tags in this range. He currently has just 12 start calls and should fall outside the Top 10 in GPP ownership this week. Reed has been trending in the right direction lately with a T2 at the PGA Championship, T20 at the Northern Trust, and T6 at the Dell Technologies Championship. Justin Rose is also on my radar this week sitting 7th in tags in this range.
$6K - $7K Range
There are no golfers in the Top 10 of overall tags in this range but there are four golfers(Leishman, Schwartzel, Na, Schauffele) who have double-digit start recommendations and should be the most popular when looking at ownership. My favorite of those four is Na this week and I wrote him up above if you want to check it out. For GPP's I am looking closely at Daniel Berger who finished second here in 2015 at Conway Farms. He isn't coming in with the best form(T61, 33rd, MC last three) but does rank 14th when looking at SG: APP(key stat) over the 12 rounds using Fantasy National Golf Club. I am also targeting Tony Finau(7 tags, 5 start calls), Gary Woodland(8 tags, 7 start calls), and Emiliano Grillo(5 tags, 3 start calls).
To check out the entire list of most tagged golfers and much, much more head on over to FanShareSports before lineup lock!
BMW Championship Update Thread
**Windfinder Update for Thursday/Friday**
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
- Hideki Matsuyama: (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)