Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/15/17

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Pitcher

Chris Sale FD 11800 DK 13100
Opponent - TB (Andriese) Park - @TB
FD - 44.63 DK - 29.44

In the final weeks of the baseball season, it is very important, especially in cash games, to target players on teams who are playing for something or players who are seeking milestones or awards. Enter Chris Sale who hits on both narratives on Friday night. He is in a dead heat with Corey Kluber for the AL CY Yong award and trying to help the Red Sox hold on to their small lead in the East over the Yankees. In his first year with the Red Sox, Sale has put up some big numbers with a career high 12.8 K/9 and 14.9% swinging strike rate. He has only recorded double-digit strikeouts once in his last five starts but it shouldn't be a problem vs. the Rays who K more than any team(26%) vs. left-handed pitching. Sale has also faced the Rays five teams this season going 4-1 with 59 strikeouts. Safe in all formats.

Robbie Ray FD 10900 DK 12500
Opponent - SF (Samardzija) Park - @SF
FD - 38.45 DK - 25.24

With a large majority of the ownership falling on Sale tonight, Robbie Ray makes a high upside pivot in the upper tier of salary on both sites. He gets a big park upgrade as the Diamondbacks travel to AT&T Park to take on the Giants who are one of just two teams yet to score more than 600 runs on the season. Ray has also looked dominant lately striking out 45 batters over his last four starts and enters tonight with a 2.81 ERA and 3.51 xFIP to back it up. All things considered, he also safe in all formats.

Charlie Morton FD 8400 DK 8100
Opponent - SEA (Paxton) Park - @HOU
FD - 32.32 DK - 21.39

Morton doesn't stand out as much on FanDuel where his price has stayed fairly consistent but on DraftKings he has seen his salary dip to its lowest point since right after the All Star break. This puts him in at the top of the SP2 list for me today in a matchup at home where he has been better overall. He provides a nice floor holding opponents to a three or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts and also provides some upside with a 10.3 K/9 rate. The only risk with Morton is the walk rate(3.37 BB/9) which elevate his pitch count early and hurts his chances of a getting a quality start on FanDuel.

Catcher

Gary Sanchez FD 3700 DK 4800
Opponent - BAL (Ynoa) Park - @NYY
FD - 12.45 DK - 9.56

Once again Gary Sanchez leads the raw points projections at the position and is one of the highest overall projected bats period. He has been an absolute boss in September with a .410 wOBA and 158 wRC+ and has multiple hit games in five of his last 11 played.  He is not only safe for cash games but also provides a ton of upside with 30 home runs on the season and has also been a tick better vs. right-handed pitching with a .371 wOBA and 131 wRC+. Roll him out with confidence at home in Yankee Stadium.

Roberto Perez FD 3100 DK 3200
Opponent - KC (Vargas) Park - @CLE
FD - 7.82 DK - 5.83

He hits down int he order but has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners in the second half after hitting for an average below the Mendoza Line in the first half. He comes into tonight's action hitting over .300 in the month of September with three home runs and has been a much better hitter vs. lefties with a .33 wOBA and 104 wRC+(.278/66 vs. RH). If you are going heavy on Chris Sale tonight in an elite matchup, Perez makes perfect since in the low $3K range on both sites.

First Base

Freddie Freeman FD 4100 DK 5200
Opponent - NYM (Montero) Park - @ATL
FD - 13.62 DK - 10.43

The first base position is loaded at the top and I start off with the safer of the two options. Freddie Freeman, despite some injuries early on, is having a fantastic season and has posted an elite .317/.417/.612 slash line with 26 home runs, 68 RBI, and 76 runs scored while playing on a limited offensive club in Atlanta. The Braves get a plus matchup on Friday and should be able to take advantage Rafael Montero who is walking over five batters per nine but because he has limited power overall, Freeman is more of a cash game play tonight.

Cody Bellinger FD 4200 DK 5100
Opponent - WSH (Jackson) Park - @WSH
FD - 13.18 DK - 10.26

For upside in the same price range, I will take rookie Cody Bellinger for GPP tonight. He has a slightly lower average(.272) than Freeman but has one of the highest ceilings in the league and has already recorded 37 home runs, driving in 86, and scoring 81 runs. He also gets the better matchup on Friday night vs. Edwin Jackson who has hit a wall giving up nine earned runs over his last two starts and six home runs over his last four starts. Look for the Dodgers to get back on the bats down the stretch.

Miguel Cabrera FD 2800 DK 3300
Opponent - CHW (Fulmer) Park - @DET
FD - 12.35 DK - 9.3

I know, you are probably sick of hearing about Miguel Cabrera but the future Hall of Famer has seen his price get low enough where he is back in play, especially with Chris Sale in an elite spot and commanding a ton of cap space tonight. The good news is Miggy has hits in four of his last six games including two multi-hit efforts and two home runs. At these prices, we aren't asking for the Miggy of old just a couple hits as the salary relief is enough tonight.

Second Base

DJ LeMahieu FD 4600 DK 4400
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @COL
FD - 13.07 DK - 10.66

Our first trip to Coors tonight starts at second base with DJ LeMahieu. The lacks overall upside but comes at an affordable price and is one of the most consistent bats in the league. The reigning NL batting champ isn't having the same season but has still impressed with a .316 average and .380 on-base percentage and is well on his way to setting a new career high in runs scored as he enters tonight with 91 on the season. To top it off, he has been a way better hitter vs. southpaws with an elite .413 wOBA and 140 wRC+ and faces Clayton Richard who does produce an elite amount of ground balls but gets hurt when he the balls gets up with a 20% HR/FB rate.

Brandon Phillips FD 3200 DK 4100
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @LAA
FD - 8.99 DK - 7.48

I prefer LeMahieu on DraftKings at just $300 more but will take the discount with Phillips on FanDuel at a $1,400 discount tonight. He was brought over in a trade at the end of August to serve as the Angels leadoff hitter and has done a splendid job with hits in eight of his 11 starts with two doubles and eight runs scored. He has yet to hit a home run for the Angels but still has a bit of pop in the bat with 11 on the season and has also added 11 home runs although the speed should not be counted at this point.

Also Consider: Brian Dozier(MIN)

Shortstop

Trevor Story FD 4000 DK 4200
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @COL
FD - 12.72 DK - 9.89

Story carries some risk tonight as he exited last night's game with a muscle cramp but reported no lingering effects and is expected to start on Friday night. That is great news as he gets a plus matchup facing a lefty(.464 wOBA, 174 wRC+) and has been hot recently with hits in five straight and eight of his last nine games with six doubles and two home runs. He isn't cheap but considering the matchup and splits is a great play at home in Coors Field.

Jose Reyes FD 3900 DK 4300
Opponent - ATL (Newcomb) Park - @ATL
FD - 10.28 DK - 8.6

If the injury concerns with Story scare you tonight it is an easy pivot to Mets veteran leadoff man Jose Reyes. He isn't going to provide near the upside of Story but also strikes out over 20% less and adds more speed. He has also been extremely consistent down the stretch with hits in 17 of his last 20 games with four home runs, 11 RBI, and 22 runs scored. Considering he has also been much better vs. lefties, he is a safe option in all formats.

Also Consider: Francisco Lindor(CLE)

 

Third Base

Nolan Arenado FD 4200 DK 5400
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @COL
FD - 17.66 DK - 13.5

You guessed it. Nolan Arenado has a 100% article rate when facing a lefty at home. Ok, I didn't actually go back and check but I bet it's pretty close. It has paid off way more times than not as well as he leads the league with a ridiculous .536 wOBA and 222 wRC+ vs. southpaws with 15 of his 33 home runs on the season. I have mentioned the great matchup vs. Clayton Richard but the one stat I have yet to mention is that he has been much worse against righties giving up a .372 wOBA and 36.7% hard contact rate.

Rafael Devers FD 3200 DK 3700
Opponent - TB (Andriese) Park - @TB
FD - 10.19 DK - 7.97

Despite hitting down in the order, Devers has provides an excellent PTS/$ value on both sites tonight. The 20-year-old rookie has been very consistent since his callup in late July with a .296 average and has shown some pop with eight home runs, 18 RBI, and 27 runs scored. I mentioned yesterday that his value would go way up if he were to climb up the batting order but either way is in play under $4k on both sites providing nice salary relief to fit Chris Sale.

Also Consider: Josh Donaldson(TOR)

Outfield

Mike Trout FD 4800 DK 5300
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @LAA
FD - 13.24 DK - 10.34
Justin Upton FD 3400 DK 4300
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @LAA
FD - 11.14 DK - 8.69

I mentioned it with Chris Sale that we need to target players on teams with something to play for and I lead off the outfield picks with a pair of Angels(I really do think that highly of them when they come through for my fantasy team). With just 16 games remaining they have some ground to make up sitting 2.5 games back in the AL Wildcard and will need their MVP candidate Mike Trout to shoulder the load down the stretch. He isn't yet eligible in the stat categories with just 440 at-bats(going into Thursday night) but sits with an elite .450 wOBA and 189 wRC+ and is one of four hitters(Altuve, Betts, Andrus) to sit in the elite 20/20 club as he has 28 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Justin Upton hasn't been nearly as consistent but has provided similar upside with 29 home runs, 100 RBI, and 90 runs scored between the Tigers and Angels. They get a top matchup on Friday facing Nick Martinez who comes in with a 5.40 ERA, 5.07 xFIP, and has given up 24 home runs over his 15 starts this season(20% HR/FB rate).

Andrew McCutchen FD 3300 DK 3800
Opponent - CIN (Bailey) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.61 DK - 9.14

Dipping down into the sub $4K range on both sites we find Andrew McCutchen who hits on everything tonight. He has been hot at the plate with hits in four straight and eight of his last nine games. That includes home runs in two of his last three bringing his season total to 25. He will have a great shot to add to that tonight as he faces Homer Bailey who has lived up to his name with a 16.4% HR/FB rate and sits with a meaty 7.27 ERA for the season. McCutchen is safe in all formats.

Also Consider: Mookie Betts(BOS), Rhys Hoskins(PHI), Austin Jackson(CLE), Lorenzo Cain(KC)

 

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