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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/17/17
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Pitcher
Clayton Kershaw FD 12100 DK 13700
Opponent - PHI (Pivetta) Park - @PHI
FD - 45.03 DK - 29.68
We only have 7 games on the slate tonight, so there aren't many pitchers to choose from. The clear-cut top 2 options are both expensive, though you'll likely need to pay up for at least one of them in both cash games and tournaments. The first of which is Clayton Kershaw, who faces off with the Phillies in Citizens Bank Park. The Dodgers are insane -330 favorites, which you'll only see when an ace is on the mound against a bad pitcher. That's certainly the case here and to an extreme. The biggest concern with Kershaw recently has been the pitch count, but I'm not too worried. He saw 91 pitches in his last start and over 100 2 starts before. I definitely don't think you'll see more than 100-105, but don't worry about him getting pulled at 60 or 70. He's just as good as he's ever been and a .241 wOBA backed up by an 11.6 K/9 proves it. The Phillies are an atrocious offense and they have struck out 25.% of the time against lefties since the ASB. Kershaw is the clear cash game play and makes a lot of sense in tournaments, especially on 2 pitcher sites. The price is high, but you don't really have a choice.
Patrick Corbin FD 9500 DK 9600
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @SD
FD - 33.18 DK - 21.88
If you do want to pivot off of Kershaw, you're lucky enough to have a very solid option. Patrick Corbin has made a name for himself this year and has earned every bit of his high price tag. He gets THE ideal match-up for a lefty, against the Padres in pitcher-heaven Petco Park. The Padres are projected for just over 3 runs and the Phillies are the only team lower. Corbin's has struck out just over 10 batters per 9 and has allowed a 28% hard contact rate. A .286 combined wOBA is great and his troubles against righties have been muffled in the 2nd half. The Padres have ranked 2nd to last against lefties on the season and they K more than enough at 23.5%. Corbin is a bit cheaper than Kershaw across the slate and he will slow you to pick up a few more bats.
Catcher
Gary Sanchez FD 3700 DK 4900
Opponent - MIN (Santana) Park - @NYY
FD - 12.18 DK - 9.35
Water is wet. Just like almost every single slate, Sanchez is the top option in both cash games and tournaments. Catcher is a very weak position and after Sanchez, there is certainly a huge drop-off. The Yankees are facing off with Ervin Santana and Vegas has them putting up nearly 5 runs. Santana was great to start the year, but he's been horrible as of late. Regression has hit him in full force and we see who he truly is. Numbers-wise, Santana has allowed a .310 wOBA and 14 home runs to righties in just over 100 innings. As for Sanchez, he has obliterated right-handers on the season to a .372 wOBA and 23 home runs. He's easily the top option on the slate at this position and it just comes down to whether or not you can fit him in.
Chris Herrmann FD 2200 DK 2800
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @SD
FD - 7.62 DK - 5.81
If punting catcher is the way you want to go, Chris Herrmann is a great way to go. He's not only cheap, but he gives you legitimate upside that other guys don't have. Herrmann has fallen off a little bit, but he's still sporting a .343 wOBA against righties with close to 1 HR per 20 at-bats. The D-Backs face off with a weak righty in Luis Perdomo who's struggled against lefties for the greater part of 3 seasons. So far in '17, he's allowed a .357 wOBA and 17 home runs. Petco Park is going to be tough for these D-Backs to deal with, but Herrmann isn't power reliant and his price is extremely low. If Sanchez doesn't float your boat, take a flier on Chris Herrmann.
First Base
Justin Bour FD 3500 DK 4400
Opponent - NYM (Harvey) Park - @MIA
FD - 5.48 DK - 4.15
With just 7 games on the docket, we don't have 5 elite first baseman to choose from. We definitely have a few solid ones, but there's no Joey Votto against a bad righty in GAB. We'll first look at Justin about, who faces off with Matt Harvey. First things first, I think he legally needs to change his name. It's truly difficult to see the name Matt Harvey pitching so terribly. He needs to pull a Fausto Carmona and let us all think it's just 2 different guys. He's certainly never going to impress as Matt Harvey again as we know what the guys capable of. Getting back to reality, he's horrible. He's been hammered by lefties to the tune of a .394 wOBA and has only been getting worse in each start. The Marlins have one of the higher implied totals of the night and I do like them as a stack. Matt Harvey is simply a bad pitcher at this point and you can avoid him because of the name. Justin Bour is a boom or bust play who's held a .368 wOBA against righties. You're hoping for a homer and possibly a few RBI's.The rest of the order should get on-base and he'll be the guy, along with Stanton, to drive them in.
Matt Olson FD 4300 DK 4700
Opponent - DET (Farmer) Park - @DET
FD - 9.77 DK - 7.44
Matt Olson hasn't been talked about very much this year, but he's been very, very good. He has 21 home runs on the season against righties and has backed it up with an elite .439 wOBA. Olson is admittedly a boom or bust bat, so he may be better off in tournaments. He's facing off with Buck Farmer, who the Athletics should be able to get to. He's been bad against both righties and lefties, allowing a .343 combined wOBA. He is a very underwhelming pitcher and you can expect the A's to knock him out by the 5th or 6th inning. His price is high, but it'll definitely keep his ownership way down. He has 2 HR upside any time he takes the field and is seeing a slight ballpark upgrade from O.Co to Comerica Park. I definitely prefer Justin Bour, but Olson has the upside and I doubt he's over 10% owned.
Second Base
Brian Dozier FD 3900 DK 5000
Opponent - NYY (Garcia) Park - @NYY
FD - 11.43 DK - 9.02
Second base is usually ugly, so it's weird for it to be decent on such a small slate. We have a few different ways to choose from and a guy like Brian Dozier has some real upside. He could be at the OF or 1B sand make a name for himself on a consistent basis. He's that powerful and consistent. He hit a whopping 42 home runs last year and is already at 31 on this season. 10 of them have come against southpaws, backed up by a .438 wOBA and 46% hard contact rate. Jaime Garcia is an extremely underwhelming pitcher and he's had HR issues against righties for what seems like 5 years now. They hold a .334 wOBA against him this year and a .260 BABIP doesn't look too great. Dozier is one of the top picks of the night for an HR and he's at a position where it's difficult to find power on a consistent basis.
Dee Gordon FD 4100 DK 4200
Opponent - NYM (Harvey) Park - @MIA
FD - 9.34 DK - 8.94
Brian Dozier is in an extremely great spot, so it's long to be hard to click the X next to his name. I honestly won't do it very often, but will have abut of exposure to Dee Gordon. He's in an ideal match-up with Matt Harvey, who's horrible against lefties and at holding runners. Dee Gordon hasn't been as good this year as he has been in the past, but a .307 average and 54 stolen bases is obviously nothing to scoff at. His style of play fits perfectly for this one with Harvey and since I like the guys behind Gordon as well, the stack is surely in play. There are just 7 games on the slate, however, and we need to take a stand somewhere. Dee Gordon will only be seen in my tournaments, but I get the merit in playing him everywhere. There's no arguing against Matt Harvey and his abilities, or lack there of.
Shortstop
Corey Seager FD 3100 DK 4300
Opponent - PHI (Pivetta) Park - @PHI
FD - 5.73 DK - 4.41
Corey Seager has certainly solidified himself as one of the more promising young players in baseball. He has the upside to be one of the faces of baseball and this season has only boosted that. He's actually hit lefties better than righties, but he's still sported a .359 wOBA against right-handers. The Dodgers move into Citizens Bank Park, which is a huge upgrade from the spacious Dodger Stadium. Vegas expects over 5.5 runs and as mentioned before, they are the biggest favorites on the board at -330. We will get to Nick Pivetta very soon, but he's not a very good pitcher. In short, he's allowed a .330 wOBA to lefties on the season. Seager is very fairly priced on both FD and DK and while he may be popular, in fine with that. There also isn't much after Seager, so I'll have more than my fair share of exposure in both cash games and tournaments.
Marcus Semien FD 3500 DK 3900
Opponent - DET (Farmer) Park - @DET
FD - 11.41 DK - 9.08
Corey Seager is clearly the top option at SS, and I will have 100% exposure in cash games. In tournaments, though, Marcus Semien is a great pivot. He is in a great HR spot against Buck Farmer and won't be overly-owned in the slightest. We touched on the A's a bit ago with Matt Olson, but he's really just a GPP play. In this case, Marcus Semien is an all-around great option here against Buck Farmer, who has struggled against both sides of the plate. He's sported a .349 wOBA against righties and has allowed a 37% hard contact rate. Semien is one of the more powerful SS's in baseball, believe it or not. He hit 27 homers in limited time last year and has been injured for most of this year. He should hit a few more dingers before the year ends and this is a great spot to do so. The price is fine and you can play him in both cash games and tournaments. To be clear, Seager will be in 100% of my cash games.
Third Base
Jake Lamb FD 2900 DK 4100
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @SD
FD - 11.63 DK - 8.85
We usually have a lot more ways to go at 3B, but we have to keep in mind that this is just a 7-game slate. We're lucky enough to have Jake Lamb against a righty and should just be grateful. Unfortunately, he is on the road in Petco Park. Still, Luis Perdomo has allowed a .353 wOBA to lefties and has a serious HR issue. We know how phenomenal Jake Lamb is against righties and the type of upside he can bring to both a cash game and tournament. He's held a .381 wOBA against them and has an ever-impressive 43% hard contact rate. The Diamondbacks aren't one of my favorite offenses on this slate, but I'm a fan of a couple of these lefties by themselves.
Justin Turner FD 4000 DK 4400
Opponent - PHI (Pivetta) Park - @PHI
FD - 12.38 DK - 9.52
If you want to get off Jake Lamb for whatever reason, Justin Turner is a pretty solid pivot. I still prefer Lamb in both formats, but will have a little bit of Turner in GPP's where I have a few extra Dodgers. They're facing off with Nick Pivetta, who's very bad against righties. Through just 60 innings, Pivetta has allowed a .415 wOBA and an astounding 16 home runs. Yes, that's nearly a 3 HR/9. He only has 3 pitches and strikes out just 5 righties per 9. Justin Turner is better against lefties, but he's also held a .364 wOBA against righties, so don't sleep on him. The Dodgers are one of the top offenses on the night and I think they go far too overlooked. Give Seager and Turner a shot, and don't ignore Berlinger either.
Outfield
Giancarlo Stanton FD 4000 DK 5300
Opponent - NYM (Harvey) Park - @MIA
FD - 15 DK - 11.27
Christian Yelich FD 4000 DK 4300
Opponent - NYM (Harvey) Park - @MIA
FD - 10.97 DK - 8.69
Starting us off in the OF is the deadly duo of Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich. Statistically, the match-up is better for Yelich. Harvey has sported a .394 wOBA against lefties and is trending in the wrong direction. He hasn't been good against righties, either, at a .341. I think the problem comes with Matt Harvey and who he is. He still thinks he's a good pitcher and you can be sure that he will challenge Stanton. It's the end of the year and you will see him get a few pitches to hit. He's going for 60 home runs and will be swinging for the fences in each at-bat. It's not a bad idea to get exposure to him as much as possible as this season winds down. Both Yelich and Stanton are fantastic plays, and you can throw Ozuna is there as well in a GPP.
Andrew McCutchen FD 3600 DK 3700
Opponent - MIL (Suter) Park - @PIT
FD - 11.6 DK - 9.13
We haven't touched on any of these Pirates yet, but that's only because Josh Harrison is on the DL with an injury. Andrew McCutchen is one of the best hitters in the league against lefties. So far in 2017, he's sported a .448 wOBA and has 11 homers in just 140 at-bats. Brent Suter is no match for McCutchen and he should be able to get something going, even with the other lefty-mashers. Suter is actually a pretty solid youngster, so I don't like targeting him too much. He has, however, allowed a .332 wOBA to righties. It's not bad, but something to work with if you're McCutchen. His price is fair across the industry and he may not be as popular as he should be. The Pirates aren't a great offense as a whole, but McCutchen is one of the best plays by himself on the entire night.
Alex Presley FD 2800 DK 3400
Opponent - OAK (Cotton) Park - @DET
FD - 9.28 DK - 7.61
The Tigers are another team we've ignored up to this point, but you can definitely play a few of these guys against Jharel Cotton. They're coming off a game where they hammered Dylan Covey, like expected. Cotton isn't as bad as Covey, but only because it's not possible. Cotton is horrible in his own right, allowing a .361 wOBA to lefties and a .359 to righties. The Tigers aren't a very solid offense, but they should be able to get to such a volatile pitcher. Alex Presley is pretty solid against righties with a .330 wOBA and .316 average. He doesn't have the most upside, but he's safe and has a very comfortable price. In cash games, he's a very solid way to go if you're looking to make things work elsewhere. In tournaments, you may be able to find a better option.
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image sources
- NLDS Mets Dodgers Baseball: (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
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Seager and Presley out i believe.