Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/20/17

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Pitcher

Chris Sale FD 11600 DK 13200
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @BAL
FD - 43.13 DK - 28.4

For the first time in a couple days, we have a full slate with a few different very solid choices at starting pitchers. I do think there's a clear top 2 (Sale, Ray), but the price difference on a few other guys is enough to consider. Between Robbie Ray and Chris Sale, we slight went Sale. Ray is definitely a solid option and you'll catch him in the pitcher's article for sure. As for Sale, the Red Sox are just 3 games ahead of the Yankees and are surely willing to toss Sale for as long as he can go, especially after an extra inning game where the bullpen was used a ton. The Orioles are definitely a powerful offense, but they strikeout almost 26% of the time and are substantially worse against left-handed pitching. Chris Sale is obviously one of the best pitchers in baseball and the 12+ K/ solidifies his upside. You can whichever way you want, but Sale gets the slight edge here. 

Brad Peacock FD 8600 DK 9800
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @HOU
FD - 39.89 DK - 26.18

Early - Luis Severino, Tyler Chatwood

Catcher

Brian McCann FD 2700 DK 3400
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.19 DK - 7.57

If you've been reading this article since the start of the season, you know what we like to do with James Shields. I really didn't think we would see him come out again this year, but I guess the White Sox feel like getting embarrassed again. Shields is easily one of the worst pitchers in the entire major leagues and the Astros should be able to absolutely demolish him. He has been worse against lefties, allowing an insane .394 wOBA. He's also giving up nearly 50% hard contact to both sides of the plate. McCann has been bouncing around the order a ton, but I suspect he will be around the 6 or 7 hole tonight. It's not perfect, but the Astros have a lot of weapons and they should give him a few RBI opportunities. He has the upside to hit it to the moon and is safe enough to send one in the gap for a RBI or two. Without Gary Sanchez on the main slate, we have to look elsewhere in cash.

Yasmani Grandal FD 2500 DK 3000
Opponent - PHI (Thompson) Park - @PHI
FD - 11.32 DK - 8.44

If Brian McCann is a bit too risky for you or he's hitting in the bottom of the order, Yasmani Grandal is facing a bad righty. `He's facing Jak Thompson in Citizens Bank Park at an extremely fair price on both sites. Thompson has actually been worse against righties, but it looks like that might just be because of the low sample size. He's allowed just a .321 wOBA against them, but a xFIP higher than that against righties. He is getting a ton of luck early on and you count on lefties doing plenty of damage. Grandal should be in the 4 or 5 hole, behind the likes of Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager. I still like McCann a bit more for the HR upside, but Grandal is a bit more consistent and is also cheaper. This is one of the weaker positions on the table, but one where one decision makes a huge difference.

Early -  Gary Sanchez, Buster Posey (too cheap)

First Base

Ryan Zimmerman FD 3100 DK 4600
Opponent - ATL (Sims) Park - @ATL
FD - 12.42 DK - 9.53

There are a bunch of solid options at 1B tonight, but no one guy that stands out above the rest. We also have a value guy we'll touch on who's in a great spot, so I don't think ownership will be stacked anywhere at the position. This Nationals offense is in a solid spot against Lucas Sims and hold an implied total close to 6. Sims has been worse against lefties on the season, but a .343 wOBA against righties is nothing to write home about. Zimmerman has returned the favor against righties with a .375 wOBA and he's slashed 24 homers against them. The Nats get a ballpark upgrade into SunTrust Park and also see a guaranteed 9 innings of at-bats on the road. It's something small, but I do use it as a tiebreaker at times. It doesn't matter until it's the 8th and your guy is left on deck. Trust me. Zimmerman and the Nats are streaming into the playoffs as one of the favorites and they still haven't seen Harper hit the lineup yet. Expect them to rough up Lucas Sims and get to the bullpen rather quickly. Zimmerman isn't head and shoulders above the crowd, but he's definitely in that top tier.

Jesus Aguilar FD 2300 DK 3800
Opponent - PIT (Brault) Park - @PIT
FD - 10.11 DK - 7.6

Out of all the average arms on this slate, Steven Brault may be the worst starter. He's originally a starter, but they switched him to the bullpen in the minors and are now switching him back. Great job Pirates. Anyways, in AAA, he allowed a 3.64 BB/9 and a 85% LOB. The Pirates still called him up and he hasn't been very good. He's a allowed a .336 wOBA to righties, but a .231 BABIP says a lot more. We know Jesus Aguilar is a lefty-masher and he should be able to see a few hittable pitches from Brault. He's posted a .392 wOBA against lefties and almost always gets involved in some way or another. His price is fair as always and he makes for an amazing play in both formats.

Early - Matt Olson, Miguel Cabrera

Second Base

Jose Altuve FD 4000 DK 5000
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @HOU
FD - 13.96 DK - 11.7

The Astros don't have any guys eligible for 1B, so I guess that's why we skipped them. We're right back at it with Jose Altuve, leading us off at 2nd base. He is the beating heart of this Houston Astros offense and a must if you're stacking the 'Stros. Altuve has actually been better against righties this season, sporting a .410 wOBA and slamming 16 homers. Oh ya, he's also over 30 stolen bases for the 6th season in a row. Altuve is in the process of having a hall-of-fame season and we have the ability to roster him against the 35-year-old James Shields. The soft toss machine with legs. We're going to touch on him plenty more and you probably already know enough. I suspect Altuve will hold his 3rd spot in the order, though I wouldn't be surprised to see some adjustments made before the playoffs, so keep an eye out. All in all, the entire Astros lineup is in play. I'm not going to touch on them at every single position, but don't forget about them. As for Altuve, he's clearly the top option in all formats at 2B and his ownership is likely to reflect that.

Daniel Murphy FD 3500 DK 5100
Opponent - ATL (Sims) Park - @ATL
FD - 12.5 DK - 9.74

Jose Altuve will see a lot of ownership and rightfully so, but there's a case to be made for fading and going to a guy like Daniel Murphy. It's entirely possible for Altuve to hit a single or two and get stranded on base. It's also possible that he hits 2 homers into the crawford boxes. Murphy probably has similar odds to hit a homer, facing off with Lucas Sims in SunTrust Park. Sims has allowed a putrid .393 wOBA against lefties and didn't profile that well coming into the rotation. Murphy always flies under the radar, but he remains an elite hitter against righties with a .385 wOBA and 18 homers. SunTrust is a lot better for lefties than Nationals Park and I think Murphy sends one out. The Nats won't garner nearly as much ownership as they should against a horrible pitcher, are worth getting exposure to. I wouldn't overthink 2B and go anywhere other than Altuve or Murphy.

Early - Dee Gordon, Jed Lowrie

Shortstop

Carlos Correa FD 3500 DK 4600
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @HOU
FD - 14.51 DK - 10.99
Marwin Gonzalez FD 3000 DK 4100
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.59 DK - 9.12

We're right back at it with a duo that is sure to grab most of the ownership at SS. I'm really not sure who will be higher owned, but I like Gonzalez a bit more. As I've said, Shields is far worse against lefties with a .394 wOBA and 17 homers in just 50 innings. It doesn't get much worse than that. Gonzalez has posted an elite .391 wOBA against righties on the season and all of the peripherals look legitimate. Correa is still a great option, mostly due to him just being a bit better of an all-around hitter than Gonzalez. They're both swinging the bat well and assume we will see Correa in the 4 and Gonzalez the 5. The prices are fair on both sites and you should be able to fit at least the cheaper of the two. Shortstop is one of the weakest positions on the night, so I'll look to stack Astros exposure here. They are the top offense of the night.

Paul DeJong FD 2900 DK 4900
Opponent - CIN (Davis) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.36 DK - 8.82

Shortstop is pretty barren. Once you move past Correa/Gonzalez and Dejong, it's an absolute wasteland. I'm at least grateful for Dejong as a pivot against William "Rookie" Davis. I'm not sure why this guy is special enough to have such a crappy nickname, but it's certainly not his ability. He's a lackluster pitcher at best and strives on just trying to survive long enough to no get embarrassed. He's allowed a putrid .439 wOBA against lefties and a .438 against righties. I don't know why, but it's a bit offensive to be THAT bad. Especially when you have a nickname. Paul Dejong already has 17 homers against righties and sees a massive park upgrade to the Great American Ballpark. He has as good of a shot as Correa and Gonzalez to put one in the seats, but will be just a fraction as owned. The Cardinals should have some fun tonight and I do like them as an under the radar stack. Check the stacks article for more.

Early - Didi Gregorius, Trevor Story

Third Base

Kris Bryant FD 4300 DK 4600
Opponent - TB (Snell) Park - @TB
FD - 12.84 DK - 9.83

I know Bryant is extremely expensive and I completely understand if you can't fit him in.

We just can't ignore the match-up he is in and the lack of excitement around the name, ultimately lowering the ownership. First off, I think Bryant should be about 30% owned. Anything lower that that is too low and I want a lot more in tournaments. I think a lot of people are staying away because of the ballpark. Have you ever seen Kris Bryant hit a HR? He hits it to the goddamn street most of the time, let alone the 32 rows of bleachers. Don't worry, he can hit it out in Tropicana. There's actually probably a better chance he hits it off the A or B ring in the rafter for an auto HR. He has obliterated lefties since coming into baseball with a .468 wOBA and I don't see why he would slow down as his prime approaches. As for Snell, he's a solid prospect who has a lot of learn. He's allowed a .330 wOBA and 14 homers in just under 100 innings. Bryant has as much upside as anyone on this slate and will be far lower owned than the other elite options.

 

Kyle Seager FD 3600 DK 3700
Opponent - TEX (Cashner) Park - @SEA
FD - 11.49 DK - 8.77

Early - Nolan Arenado

Outfield

Josh Reddick FD 3600 DK 4200
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @HOU
FD - 13.98 DK - 10.98
George Springer FD 3700 DK 4900
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @HOU
FD - 14.53 DK - 11.29

I could've thrown Carlos Beltran in here as well, but we already have a trio coming up next. Beltran has been pretty pathetic on the season anyway, though I'm sure he'll pick it up in the postseason. As for Reddick and Springer, they are right in line with the rest of the Astros we've talked about. Looking at Shields' numbers a final time, he's allowed a .394 wOBA to left-handers and a .315 against righties. I would also put that .315 to around .350, as he has a .250 BABIP and gave up a .380 to righties in 2016. I do like Josh Reddick a bit more with the platoon and price advantage. George Springer is still the most powerful leadoff hitter in the game and he cranks against righties, so go ahead and give him a go if he fits. Personally, I'm not sure he's in the top 4. Reddick certainly is. To wrap up this offense, ownership is going to be a big deal. They are projected for 6+ runs and are sure to garner attention. Be careful in tournaments with a power-reliant bat like Springer over 60% owned.

Rajai Davis FD 2100 DK 3600
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.44 DK - 9.39
Chris Young FD 2200 DK 3700
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @BAL
FD - 9.55 DK - 7.34
Mookie Betts FD 4500 DK 5500
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.55 DK - 10.13

It's definitely a bit weird to recommend a trio of guys, but which one can I leave off? It's certainly not Young or Davis, who are some of the best value plays on the entire day. It's not Betts, either, as he's the beating heart this offense thrives for. They're facing off Wade Wiley in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Miley is pitiful against righties. He's allowed a .372 wOBA to them on the season and has already allowed a whopping 21 home runs. All 3 of these guys mash lefties to a vetting degree, starting with Rajai. He has held a .341 wOBA, but also has stolen base upside every single time. He's one of the best I've ever seen at stealing against lefties. Next is Young and Betts, who have both held between a .370 and .390 against righties. They're both in play across the board and I really like he mini Red Sox stack. It's certainly tough to argue with a .372 wOBA. Wrapping it up, the Red Sox are an elite team in the OF and you could throw out a crazy 3-man stack in a GPP.

Dexter Fowler FD 3500 DK 4500
Opponent - CIN (Davis) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.04 DK - 8.76

Early - Giancarlo Stanton, Matt Joyce, Ian Desmond, Brandon Nimmo, and also think either Kepler or Rosario put one over the short porch in NYY.

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