Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/24/17

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Pitcher

Corey Kluber FD 12000 DK 13100
Opponent - SEA (Leake) Park - @SEA
FD - 46.22 DK - 30.61

On first glance, the number of aces on this slate is crazy. It's not as great as it seems, though, as the season is winding down and there are some guys who won't see a full complement of pitches. Kluber, however, has no problem of that kind. He has gone 7+ innings in 6 straight starts and is pretty close to locking up the Cy Young. He gets a pretty fair match-up with the Mariners in a tremendous ballpark for pitchers. The Mariners have been exactly league average against righties with a .324 season wOBA, but strikeout a lot at 23%. They are much worse in Safeco Field and very rarely blow up a pitcher. Kluber is arguably the best pitcher in baseball and I know he's the 1 guy I wouldn't want to face right now. Since the start of the season, Kluber has held righties to a .225 wOBA and lefties to a .250. I know, lefties really dominate him. In this ballpark, I expect the Klubot to cruise as much as he has recently. His floor is about 6 innings and 7 K's, with a CGSO ceiling. The Mariners are nothing special and certainly won't stand in the way of Kluber if he is on his game. If you have the funds, there's no reason not to pay up.

Max Scherzer FD 10800 DK 12900
Opponent - NYM (deGrom) Park - @NYM
FD - 45.68 DK - 30.15

If you told me there would be 2 pitchers more expensive than Max Scherzer on a slate just a month ago, I would have called you crazy. He has struggled a bit recently and just hasn't been shown the upside he typically does. With that being said, the definition of struggle is pretty relative. We are talking about Max Scherzer, so his bad games are still 6-7 innings and close to double-digit strikeouts. You just have to e careful with his HR problems. He gets a phenomenal match-up with a lifeless Mets team who has all but given up on the season. Scherzer did have a dominant start last time out against the Braves, so he'll look to build on that and forget the few before it. On the season as a whole, he's been nearly as good as Kluber. He has posted a .260 combined wOBA and has struck out 12 batters per 9. I feel like I'm talking down about Scherzer here, but he is one of the 3 or 4 best pitchers in baseball and is by no means inferior to anyone. He's somehow "cheap", compared to the likes of Kershaw and Kluber, though. He's still going to cost you an arm and a leg, but you might have to pay up, as none of these cheap options have the upside to match the top dogs. All 3 of these top guys are viable in all formats and it just comes down to who you prefer. Kluber is my favorite, with Scherzer a very close 2nd.

Catcher

Yasmani Grandal FD 2600 DK 3300
Opponent - SF (Stratton) Park - @LAD
FD - 10.68 DK - 7.96

Catcher is typically a position that's tough to fill and one you look at for salary relief. It's still one of the weaker positions on the night, but we do have some guys with upside. Gary Sanchez is still the best hitter on the slate and he can hit an HR or 2 against anyone, including Marcus Stroman. He is expensive, however, and not the optimal play in cash games against a great righty. Instead, we'll take a look at Los Angeles and Yasmani Grandal. Grandal and the Dodgers are facing Chris Stratton, who is not very good, simply put. He's allowed a .330 wOBA against to left-handers and moves from spacious AT&T Park to an average Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers are expected to put up some runs in this one and Grandal will be right in the heart of the order. He's a bit priced down on both sites and makes a lot of sense in both cash games and tournaments. You can expect him to be about 15-20% owned, unless one of the more popular options is out of the lineup.

Alex Avila FD 2400 DK 3300
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @MIL
FD - 9.62 DK - 7.13

While the Cubs have countless guys who can make an impact at the plate, Alex Avila is one of the main difference makers. Since being brought over to the Cubs from the Tigers, he has continued his dominance against righties and has helped give the Cubs some production from the catcher spot against righties. He's posted a .390 wOBA against them on the season and had to play most of his games in the huge Comerica Park. Miller Pak isn't much better for lefties, but it definitely is to a degree. Chase Anderson is a very average pitcher and he's not a guy you run away from. A .300 wOBA against isn't bad, but a .352 BABIP is. He's a groundball pitcher who relies on the double play and keeping teams out of the seats. It's a pretty tough task against a Cubs team with playoff blood on the nose. I like Avila a lot at a position where safety is tough to come by.

 

First Base

Freddie Freeman FD 4200 DK 5100
Opponent - PHI (Pivetta) Park - @ATL
FD - 13.51 DK - 10.34

First bases is loaded as always and there will be no guy over 15 over 20% owned. In my opinion, Freddie Freeman is the best left-handed hitter in baseball. I do think it's very close, but his dominance in all facets is unmatched. I have an extremely tough time ignoring him anytime he's facing a lackluster righty, which are exactly the words you'd use to describe Nick Pivetta. Pivetta has been worse against righties, but that's only because of a .340 BABIP. He hasn't pitched many innings at all, though a .387 combined wOBA is more than enough at this point. He may develop into a starter in the future, but that time isn't 2017. The Braves aren't a team you'll ever really want to stack, but Freeman can go ham by himself with ease. It's also the end of the year with 2 teams out of the fight, so it's a lot more rare to see him get pitched around. He is expensive, but you should be able to afford him on FD. Let's take a look at a boom-bust guy who can hit 2 HR and is pretty cheap.

Mitch Moreland FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - CIN (Stephens) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.2 DK - 8.41

If you're looking for safety or any type of a floor, goodbye, You have about 15 better options. If you're looking for the chance for 2 hard swings and 2 big bombs, welcome. Mitch Moreland is always nervewracking to roster, but he can pay off huge in a tournament. The match-up with Jackson Stephens is great, as he's a guy who doesn't belong to be anywhere near the major leagues. He was walking close to 4 batters per 9 in AAA before being called up, and that wasn't a 1-year thing. Stephens does have strikeout material, but it hasn't turned over against major leaguers, who don't swing at every pitch. He's been hit hard by both sides of the plate and the Red Sox are definitely one of my favorite stacks of the day. As for Moreland, he'll be sitting behind the core of the lineup and should have some opportunities to knock runs in. He has 18 homers against righties on the season and has struck out close to 30%. He'll be low -owned and has the upside to flip things around in GPP's. Don't be afraid to take a shot.

Second Base

Scooter Gennett FD 3400 DK 4200
Opponent - BOS (Fister) Park - @CIN
FD - 9.32 DK - 7.33

We're a bit more interested in the Red Sox side of the diamond in this one, but there's no fault in looking at some of these Cincy lefties. He's allowed a .369 wOBA against them and a sad 2.63 HR/9 since 2016. He now moves into the Great American Ballpark, where the ball flies off of lefties bats, especially compared to Fenway where the wall is about 500 yards away in right. Scooter Gennett is lowkey one of the best 2nd baseman in baseball against righties. He has sported a .394 wOBA against them and obviously has the power in tournaments. 2nd isn't the most exciting, but Gennett is going to be low-owned and he has the upside to bring you home. I think he's pretty safe also, at least compared to the other options.  Gennett is nowhere near a must, but he's my favorite in both formats for the price.

Rougned Odor FD 2500 DK 3400
Opponent - OAK (Cotton) Park - @OAK
FD - 9.6 DK - 7.73

If you need to save some salary or simply don't like Scooter Gennett for whatever reason, Rougned Odor is a fantastic pivot. The Rangers may be in the spacious Oakland Coliseum, but they're still very much in play against Jharel Cotton. Cotton has been horrible on the season, allowing a .360 combined wOBA and nearly 2 HR per 9 innings.  Odor is one of the more powerful 2nd basemen in the league and while I said the same with Scooter, he can hit 2 HR's without anyone blinking an eye. He's held a .362 wOBA against righties dating back to last season and is worth every dollar that he is right now. Odor already has 25 homers against righties on the season, so he'll look to build on that number tonight. Jharel Cotton shouldn't last for any longer than 4 or 5 innings, giving way to a lackluster Athletics bullpen. 2nd base is a bit rough and Odor has the potential to slam 2 over the fence, no matter how you slice it.

Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts FD 3400 DK 4600
Opponent - CIN (Stephens) Park - @CIN
FD - 12.14 DK - 9.63

We'll get right back to Cincinnati and the Red Sox offense with Xander Bogaerts at SS. Bogaerts has been manning the leadoff spot as of late and has done a very good job. He's been one of the more consistent hitters on the season and his ability to hit against both sides of the plate is nothing short of impressive. He faces a righty tonight in Jackson Stephens, who is not ready to face the Boston Red Sox in the bam box that is Great American B(Sm)all Park. The Sox are projected to put up close to 6 runs and you have to think Bogaerts will be a big reason why. The entire Sox lineup is in play here and I will have a few different variations of a stack. Bogaerts will be in every single one of them. He's posted a .323 wOBA against righties and has finally started adding the imminent power. Shortstop is probably the weakest position on this slate and Bogarts is my favorite of the bunch.

Marcus Semien FD 3800 DK 4500
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @OAK
FD - 12.05 DK - 9.59

Marcus Semien is an SS I love to roster as he has so much power, yet seems to get ignored as much as some bums. Semien is far from a bum at the plate, sporting a combined .361 wOBA since the start of 2016. He has missed the majority of this season, though 27 homers just last season proves the point. He now gets to face off with an atrocious left-handed Martin Perez. Perez has been a gas can all year long and I'll look to continue targeting him. Against righties, Perez has allowed a .360 wOBA and 19 home runs in 130 innings. RIghties can put the ball over the fence against him with ease and we know that's there with Semien. He may not be as safe or have as much upside as Bogaerts, but he's also going to be far lower-owned. SS is a fine position tonight and you'll just have to decide what opportunity cost is worth it.

 

Third Base

Josh Donaldson FD 3600 DK 4500
Opponent - NYY (Garcia) Park - @TOR
FD - 12.86 DK - 9.66

Third base, per the usual, is one of the two most stacked positions of the day. We'll start off with Josh Donaldson against a lefty. It doesn't get much easier than that. Against lefties, Donaldson has sported a whopping .428 wOBA since 2016. He's hit 30 home runs on the season and 7 of them in just 90 plate appearances against lefties. He holds one of his best match-ups yet with Jaime Garcia and the Yanks. Garcia isn't a bad pitcher, but he does have HR issues and this is 2017. Jaime is about 50 at this point. He's allowed a .328 wOBA and 13 home runs in just over 110 innings. The Blue Jays aren't the most productive offense this season, so I'll likely keep Donaldson as just a 1-off  and forget about playing the rest of the Jays. Donaldson is my top play at 3B and he should garner a decent amount of ownership. Moving next, we look at another guy with extreme platoon splits.

Jake Lamb FD 3200 DK 4700
Opponent - MIA (Straily) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.64 DK - 8.1

I never go out of my way to target Dan Straily, but that's not the case tonight. He may be average on most nights and get through lineups he shouldn't, that doesn't happen in Chase Field. Chase Field is where balls go to be hit out and where pitchers go to get damage done. Straily has also been slightly weaker against lefties. Straily has allowed 18 home runs on the season in 170 innings, so things aren't looking the greatest in the 2nd best hitting ballpark in baseball. Especially when Jake Lamb will be lining up 60 feet 6 inches away. Lamb is an animal every single time he takes the field and is nothing short of a superstar against righties in this park. Against righties, he has 23 home runs and a .396 wOBA. He also hits the ball hard 41% of the time, which you'll only find from a few guys around the league. Whether you go Donaldson or Lamb, you have a solid chance at an HR for a 15-20% owned guy.

Outfield

Giancarlo Stanton FD 4600 DK 5600
Opponent - ARI (Corbin) Park - @ARI
FD - 14.15 DK - 10.63

Just a few minutes before I started putting this paragraph together, the man hit another one. Now at 56 homers, it's looking more and more likely we see the 60 burger from Stanton. It's just a bit unfair when you move him into a hitter's ballpark like that of Chase Field He already hits it 450 feet with regularity in Marlins Park, so the jump into the hot+elevations just brings his game to another level. He also sees a lefty tonight, who Stanton is the best power bat in the league against. In nearly 150 at-bats, he's has held a .479 wOBA and a 41% hard contact rate against them. Patrick Corbin is a fine starting pitcher, but he's nothing at all to get you off of Stanton vs a lefty. He's the top play in the OF and I wouldn't be surprised to see a -HR prop out of Vegas. If you can afford him, do it.

Andrew Benintendi FD 4000 DK 4900
Opponent - CIN (Stephens) Park - @CIN
FD - 12.63 DK - 10.07

We could stack the Red Sox OF here, but I decided to stick with my favorite of the bunch. Mookie Betts and whomever else finds the other OF are very much in play as well. As for Benintendi, he's dominated righties and sees a ginormous ballpark upgrade for a lefty from Fenway Park to Great American. Benintendi has sported a .350 wOBA against righties and has backed it up with a 38% hard contact rate. We've touched on Jackson Stephen plenty and there isn't much else to say about the guy. He was walking close to 4 batters per 9 innings in AA and has no place pitching in the majors, let alone against the Red Sox in one of the more friendly hitting environments. I'm all over the Red Sox tonight and willing to go down with the ship if Jackson Stephens pitches well. All in all, the Red Sox OF deserves a monstrous amount of attention.

Nomar Mazara FD 3000 DK 3400
Opponent - OAK (Cotton) Park - @OAK
FD - 11.11 DK - 8.59
Shin-Soo Choo FD 3800 DK 3300
Opponent - OAK (Cotton) Park - @OAK
FD - 11.79 DK - 9.24

We touched on Rougned Odor earlier and now we look at 2 guys who are considerably safer. As I mentioned, Jharel Cotton has been atrocious. With a .362 wOBA allowed against lefties and a .359 against righties, you can target everyone against this guy. The only problem we have is that it's being played in the spacious Oakland Coliseum, where it's pretty tough to put up runs. Both Mazara and Choo have gotten to righties rather quickly on the season and hold respective .377 and .361 wOBA's against. Nomar Mazara is especially cheap on FD and he'll be in my cash game lineup across the board. Choo is cheaper on DK and I would get my exposure to him over there. These Rangers bats will get to about 15% owned, which I think is far too low. Take a shot in both cash games and tournaments.

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