Daily Fantasy Football Top Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 4 - 10/1/17

I would love to tell you that Week 3 went exactly as planned and I came out on top but that would be an outright lie! All three stacks were a major disappointment and were very damaging to my bankroll.  The Redskins defense took the words from the Raiders wideouts to heart and shut them down completely.

The Redskins defense took the words from the Raiders wideouts to heart and shut them down completely. Both Cooper and Crabtree were held to just one reception while Derek Carr totaled just 118 yards and threw two interceptions. Cam Newton continued to look rusty(I can't use the words that came out of my mouth on Sunday) as he was also held under 200 yards and threw three interceptions while only rushing three times for 16 yards. Without the added yards and fantasy points on the ground, Cam is nothing more than an average QB at this point. Then there was the Chargers who couldn't take advantage of a fairly vulnerable Chiefs defense that is allowing 250+ yards through the air per game. Phillip Rivers looked like he was ready to head back to San Diego where at least the fans showed up. He threw for just 237 yards, zero touchdowns, and three interceptions. Keenan Allen did get the largest target share(9) but couldn't make much of it with just five catches for 61 yards while it was Travis Benjamin who hit value with 105 yards.

That's right, a big giant goose egg in Week 3 but the good news is that it's now behind us and we have yet another week to get back on track. One thing to pay attention to this week is the changes DraftKings made to their main slate this week. They have removed the Sunday night game which gives us just 12 games on the main slate for the Milli Maker contest. There is also another game in London this week with the Saints and Dolphins going head to head at Wembley Stadium. Let's jump in and take a look at some of the top stacks this week.

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New Orleans Saints

Quarterback - Drew Brees
Primary Target - Michael Thomas
Secondary Target - Coby Fleener

I normally turn my attention away from the London games from a DFS standpoint but this week is a little different. The Saints and Dolphins game currently is the only game with an over/under that exceeds 50 points and it makes perfect sense as both defenses are allowing over 275 yards through the air through three weeks. Even when evaluating the DVOA numbers, both teams rank near the bottom(Saints-25th, Dolphins-32nd). I lean the Saints this week led by Drew Brees who rebounded in a big way after a poor performance in week one, at least from a fantasy perspective(291 yards and 1 TD). Since then, he has faced New England and Carolina and posted 576 yards through the air with six touchdowns and no interceptions topping 20 fantasy points on both sites in both games. Pair him with his top wideout, Michael Thomas, who is averaging 8.7 targets per week and gets an elite matchup vs. the Dolphins outside corners(Maxwell, Howard) who both rank outside of the Top 90 when looking at the PFF ranks. The worry for Coby Fleener and even Tedd Ginn is that Willie Snead returns from his suspension this week but reports from the Saints are that he is dealing with a hamstring injury and could be somewhat limited this week. Ginn and Fleener are both hit and miss GPP plays and I lean Fleener here who is likely to be low owned coming off a week where he received just one target and has more upside. The good news is that he scored in both of the Saints first two games and gets a top matchup vs. the Dolphins who have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to tight ends through their first two games(I know, small sample but still).

Arizona Cardinals

Quarterback - Carson Palmer
Primary Target - Larry Fitzgerald

The Sunday Main Slate is just begging us to pay down at quarterback as some of the top names have less than ideal matchups. The Player Lab agrees as this week I used three filters to narrow down the field. Keep in mind that the "Poor Defense vs. Pass" and "High Passing TD" filters are using 2016 stats for one more week. The 49ers have allowed just 240.5 passing yards(14th fewest) through three games but faced a struggling Cam Newton and Russell Wilson in the first two weeks which gives them a 30th rank in DVOA vs. the Pass. I am not at all worried about their defense at this point. For Palmer, the passing touchdowns per game are only a tick lower at this point of the season(1.33) and while you may think the projected 49 pass attempts is crazy(I did at first), consider he has attempted 48 in two of his first three games. He also comes into this week's plus matchup coming off back to back 300+ yard games. The run game took a huge hit in week one as David Johnson was lost to injury and Kerwynn Williams, Chris Johnson, and Ande Ellington are not names to run out and grab in your fantasy leagues and this has forced Palmer to throw, throw, throw. He has been productive as well as he trails just Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers(played one extra game) in passing yards. The only knock is that he has thrown as many interceptions as he has touchdowns but I see some positive regression coming his way. It helps that he has the ageless wonder, Larry Fitzgerald at his disposal who has arguably the best hands in the league. Seriously, if you missed the catch of the year so far, check it out below.

Larry Fitzgerald is a full blown savage pic.twitter.com/4HmHqd6TRe

— Barstool Sports (@barstooltweetss) September 26, 2017

Even at age 34, he is still getting it done on the field at an elite level and is getting the volume to boot. He currently sits third in targets(34) behind Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins and also third in receptions(22). He has just one touchdown but similar to Palmer, I think they both have some positive regression coming. I feel the volume will once again be there this week as secondary targets, J.J. Nelson and John Brown remained limited during Thursday's practice. Take advantage against one of the weaker defenseive units in the league.

Houston Texans

Quarterback - DeShaun Watson
Primary Target - DeAndre Hopkins

Looking at the projections and lineup optimizers this week, rookie Deshaun Watson tops the PTS/$ ranks on DraftKings and sits third on FanDuel as of Friday morning. He took over for Tom Savage early in week one and hasn't looked back as he has improved each step along the way. The completion %, passing yards, touchdowns, rush attempts, and fantasy point totals have all gotten better each week. That trend should continue this week in most areas as the Texans get a home matchup vs. the Titans who have allowed 269 passing yards per game(30th) and rank 24th in DVOA Defense vs. the Pass.  Looking at it from a fantasy perspective, the Titans also rank 29th in DraftKings points allowed to quarterbacks and wide receivers. DeAndre Hopkins is the clear #1 on the team and leads the entire league in targets per game and is the 14th most expensive option on FanDuel and the 17th most expensive on DraftKings(counting all games in Week 4). Watson also adds a ton of upside with his legs and has rushed the ball 13 times over the last two games for 108 yards and a touchdown. The price is low enough where you can stack these two with two or three other elite players and maximize your overall upside in your lineup.

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