Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel - CIMB Classic
DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).
Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet and Season-Long Trends Sheet at absolutely no cost.
Welcome back for another week of daily fantasy golf as the Fall Season continues. This week 78 players travel to Malaysia for a no-cut event at TPC Kuala Lumpur. This will be the fifth time the course has hosted this event and two players have dominated the trophy ceremonies. FedEx Cup Champion, Justin Thomas, returns as the defending champ in each of the last two years with Ryan Moore taking down back to back wins here in 2015 and 2014. Before moving on, let's take a look at the top of the leaderboard over the past four years:
As you can see we are likely in for a birdie fest as evidenced by the scores shown above, especially over the past two years. This puts Birdie or Better % right up near the top of the key stats this week and with fairly generous fairways I will also be weighing Strokes Approach heavily as well. Let's take a quick look at the Top 5 golfers in both of those stats over the last 12 rounds overall using the tools over at Fantasy National Golf Club.
Let's take a look at the course information and then jump right into the picks.
TPC Kuala Lumpur - Kuala, MAS
Par 72 - 7,005 Yards
Top Stats in the Model
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Birdie or Better %
- Par 5 Scoring
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Top Course History Targets
There is absolutely no argument with Thomas topping the course history list. He has played here twice in his young career, winning twice with a combined score of -49. He returns with top form as well coming off a runner-up at the TOUR Championship which netted him the FedEx Cup to go along with Player of the Year honors in a season he won five times including his first Major at the PGA Championship. I don't think you need to force him into your cash game lineups this week with a $12K tag but makes a very high upside GPP play and tough fade, even at a projected high ownership.
Piercy also returns to TPC Kuala Lumpur with some excellent course history having played here twice finishing Top 10's both times. After his strong start last season in the fall series he struggled and ended with just one Top 10 finish when the calendar flipped to 2017 so you can imagine he is excited to get back to Malaysia. The good news is that he played the season-opening Safeway Open last week and finished T17 so he comes in with some confidence and is nicely positioned in the mid $8K range on DraftKings and better yet is under $6K on FanDuel.
Top Current Form Targets
Current form is a tough one to gauge accurately this week for most golfers who didn't go deep into the FedExCup Playoffs but Paul Casey isn't one of them. He was one of the 30 golfers to make it all the way to the TOUR Championship and with a 5th place finish ended his season with a Top 5 finish in three of the four Playoff events. While I usually think of him more as a steady cash game play, he ranks third in this field with 81.4 DraftKings points per tournament over his last five events. Although he hasn't finished better than 21st here at TPC Kuala Lumpur in three trips, he will be one of my core players in all formats this week.
World Golf Ranking (#102)
Vegas Odds (45/1)
Reavie ended up being one of the more consistent PTS/$ golfers over the second half of the 2016/17 season as he ended up making 11 straight cuts and made it all the way to the BMW Championship. He started the fall portion of the new season last week at the Safeway Open and ended up with a T13. He played here for the first time last year and if not for a brutal second round 77, would have finished better than is T60. With his form and mid $7K price tag, I am willing to consider him in all formats this week.
Who the Stats Like
World Golf Ranking (#48)
Vegas Odds (30/1)
Woodland hits on almost areas this week and it starts with the stats. Looking at the field of 78 players, he ranks Top 10 in Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Par 5 Scoring, and Par 5 Birdie or Better %. His form doesn't stand out as great but he finished last season making the cut in 12 of his final 13 tournaments. His history has been a tail of two stories as he has finished outside the Top 50 in the last two years after finishing runner-up in both 2014 and 2015. All things considered, I will be using him in all formats this week.
World Golf Ranking (#96)
Vegas Odds (40/1)
My favorite value play when looking at my stats model this week is Bud Cauley who will be making the trip to TPC Kuala Lumpur for the first time. Looking at my cheatsheet, he ranks 6th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 8th overall in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 13th in Par 4 Soring, 19th in Par 5 Birdie or Better %, and 14th in Bogey Avoidance. He also started the fall series off in style finishing T7 at the Safeway Open and it could have been much better as he started with three rounds under 70 but faltered on Sunday with a 74. Roll him out with confidence in all formats.
Tournament Update Thread
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.