Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

10/28/2017
Jerry Vanderwoude

Daily Fantasy NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 10/28/17

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Point guard

Jrue HolidayJrue Holiday FD - $7400 DK - $6900
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 42.07 DK - 42.09
We've got eight games tipping off tonight in the Association, and no ridiculously high scoring projections coming from the good folks in Vegas, though they're not releasing anything on this game yet as we're still unsure of the status of one Anthony Davis, and that will of course impact the projections here. It will also impact the production of Jrue Holiday. Jrue stepped in and led the offense on Thursday against Sacramento dropping 20 points, and going 7-13 from the field. Holiday struggled to score early on and has improved each time out, while maintaining steady assist numbers and snagging an average of five boards per game. Davis has gone from doubtful on Thursday to questionable for tonight, and it seems the plan is to test the knee out prior to gametime. If Davis plays, Holiday will definitely take a hit but remains a solid cash game play, I'll consider him for tournaments only if AD remains sidelined for another tilt.

Damian LillardDamian Lillard FD - $9300 DK - $8800
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 47.21 DK - 49.21
The Phoenix Suns head into Portland tonight and this is great news for Damian Lillard. Lillard has been off to say the least to start the season, shooting just 37.9% from the field and struggling to get things going. Enter, the Suns with their third fastest pace of play and fourth ranked defense against opposing point guards. If Lillard's going to get things on track, tonight presents the perfect opportunity to do just that. The Suns are a mess in the backcourt, with Eric Bledsoe taking to Twitter to request a trade (how did we get anything done before twitter?), and the Suns ultimately deciding to bench him until they're able to deliver on the request once they can find the right deal. In the interim they've thrown Mike James into the starting five and though he's looked good defensively he hasn't faced an opponent of Lillard's caliber either. This game has the highest projected total on the night at 217 and does come with some blowout risk, however all thing's considered I like Lillard as a solid cash game play, and he could push for 6X points per dollar if Phoenix can keep it competitive.

Goran DragicGoran Dragic FD - $7000 DK - $6800
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 38.09 DK - 39.18
Beantown heads into South Beach as the Heat host the Celtics tonight at AmericanAirlines Arena. I prefer Jrue Holiday in the same price point, particularly if Davis sits, but if Davis is a go and you want to make a slight pivot down to Goran Dragic I can see making a point to do that. Dragic has been scoring more consistently, though he's been a little more erratic with the peripherals, dishing out just one assist while snagging four rebounds has last time out against the Spurs. He has been dealing with a bruised thigh, and while he hasn't had any missed time due to it, it could be hindering his giddy up just a little bit, but with Hassan Whiteside already ruled out for tonight, I'll look for Dragic to keep the scoring in the twenties while seeing minutes in the low to mid thirties. The matchup with Boston is one of the tougher ones on the docket tonight, but all things considered, the Dragon should be able to deliver at the price.

Shooting Guard

C.J. McCollumC.J. McCollum FD - $7700 DK - $7500
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 37.76 DK - 38.78
I'm not loving shooting guard at first glance tonight. James Harden is on the tail end of a back to back against a tough Memphis team with one of the lower over/unders on the slate. So for my top money play, I'll return to Portland to target the Suns yet again. C.J. McCollum has been money in the bank in the early going of the 17-18 campaign shooting 52.2 percent from the field and 66.7 from beyond the arc. He's run the board for 36+ minutes in his last three contests and is averaging 25 points per game. C.J. was serving a one game suspension during the Blazers trip into Phoenix on opening night so this will be his first meeting with the Suns this season and he'll spend most of the night paired with Devin Booker who has an offensive mindset and can't be bothered with defense. As safety plays go, McCollum's at the top of the list, and if Lillard does continue to struggle finding the basket, the scoring may fall on C.J.'s shoulders and he could put out his best showing of the young season.

Rodney HoodRodney Hood FD - $5300 DK - $5100
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 30.14 DK - 31.26
After McCollum, there isn't much worth paying up for at the two so let's head down to the lower tiers and find us some value in the form of Rodney Hood. Hood missed two games with a calf strain, and said there is still some discomfort, but it certainly didn't hinder him in his return to the boards on Wednesday. He dropped 22 points including going a perfect 6-6 from the charity stripe against the Suns while also recording a rebound and two assists in 35 minutes of court time. He's had three days to rest the calf now and comes into tonight with another prime matchup against the Lakers. While the Jazz play at one of the leagues slowest paces L.A. is playing at the top spot this season along with Brooklyn, which will speed up the Utah game. The Lakers also are a bottom ten defense at the two spot. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Lonzo Ball are average defenders at best and Hood should see plenty of looks in the one with ample opportunity to pay value and then some. I love Hood in all formats tonight.

Dion WaitersDion Waiters FD - $6200 DK - $5600
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 30.9 DK - 31.82
Somewhere in between McCollum and Hood we find Dion Waiters. Waiters reportedly tweaked his ankle in the season opener in Orlando, and while it seemed to hinder him a bit against the Hawks on Monday, he saw a season low 22 minutes and only managed 10 points, he bounced back nicely for Wednesday's contest with the Spurs. He managed a 17/2/5 line in 39 minutes of court time. Having had two nights off in between I expect him to come out and give another full effort tonight against the Celtics. Boston is a tough matchup for opposing SG's this season, though if Marcus Smart comes off the bench once again, that could play to Waiters' advantage. Regardless of the matchup, Waiters comes in as one of the top plays in the system's early run and is a nice option in cash contests.

Small forward

Harrison BarnesHarrison Barnes FD - $6400 DK - $5700
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 31.73 DK - 32.07
Small forward is another position that just isn't offering up a lot to love tonight, so I'm going to stick to the mid tier plays, and offer up three who should be in a spot to produce solid fantasy value. We'll start of with Harrison Barnes. The Mavericks host the Sixers in Dallas, and if minutes security and consistent scoring are your thing, (and, they should be), then Barnes is your guy. Barnes has seen at least 30 minutes of court time each time out this season, maxing out at 38 and most recently running 37 against the Grizzlies on Thursday night. In that game Barnes picked up his first double double of the season, mixing 22 points with 11 rebounds, though he did little else picking up just 1 assist. Tonight he'll match up with Robert Covington, while most likely crossing paths with newly healthy Ben Simmons, who have combined to make the Sixers a top two defense against opposing small forwards this season, allowing just 25.1 FDP per game at the position. That should still provide Barnes an opportunity to easily pay value, making him a solid cash game play. This game has just a one point spread, so the starters should see their full compliment of minutes and safety shouldn't be a concern in the one.

Josh RichardsonJosh Richardson FD - $5900 DK - $5300
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 29.36 DK - 28.92
This is another game with just a one point spread, and a lot of value to go around, with injuries to Rodney McGruder and Hassan Whiteside, Josh Richardson won the starting role at the three for Miami and hasn't disappointed. Even last time out against the Spurs, when he was shut down at the basket scoring only six points, Richardson found other ways to contribute and ended the night with five boards, three assists, and two steals. That ability to stuff the stat sheet makes Richardson a great upside play because he can do so much on the court and he has been getting plenty of minutes to do just that. Richardson possesses multi-position skills and can switch from guard to forward with ease. Jaylen Brown is an average defender, and Boston has been terrible at the three this season allowing 47.1 FDP to the position. Richardson could be looking at a breakout game tonight and is a terrific consideration in both cash and tournaments.

Danilo GallinariDanilo Gallinari FD - $6200 DK - $5700
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 31.61 DK - 32.81
I really hate the totals coming from Vegas on this slate. At 208.5 This matchup between the Pistons and the Clippers in L.A. has the second highest total for the evening. It also has a clear favorite with little blowout concern as the Clippers sit at 7 point favorites. I'm not expecting much out of Danilo Gallinari who has struggled mightily to start the 2017 season as he goes against the stingiest defense at the three in the league. That said, there are several factors I'd like you to consider before you write off Gallinari. Despite some poor shooting (.314 from the filed, .238 from three) he has managed to increase his scoring each game out this season, and also topped out at 38 minutes his last two times out. All the while the price has continued to drop and is at a season low on FanDuel, while hitting near low on DraftKings. So if we factor in the increasing minutes, increased scoring, and reduced salaries, we can see why the system ranks Danilo as not only one of the top PPD plays going tonight, but also just behind Barnes as the top raw projected point total of any player at the position not named LeBron. I prefer Barnes, and Richardson for that matter, but as a tournament play, if Gallinari can continue to improve on his shooting he could put up big numbers at a reasonable price.

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Power forward

Blake GriffinBlake Griffin FD - $9700 DK - $9600
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 47.67 DK - 48.55
As big money plays go, it looks like Blake is going to be my guy tonight, with one caveat, that we'll get to shortly. Russ and Harden are on back to backs, and James doesn't have the most ideal of matchups. I'm not telling you to fade those guys, but from a point per dollar perspective, Blake Griffin is the best way to drop a hefty chunk of your salary all in one place. We've already covered this game in the eyes of Vegas, its one of the night's higher scoring contests, and the Clippers come in as solid favorites with little blowout concern, and who is going to lead the way in the scoring department for L.A? Who Else but Mr Griffin? Blake has seen a steady run of minutes through his first four games, with a season high of 40 against Portland on Thursday night. He finished that game with a 25/8/5 line adding in a steal for good measure. The Pistons have been terrible at the four this season allowing 26.2 points and 10.8 rebounds per game at the position, so a double double should be all but guaranteed here. It's an excellent spot for Griffin and with his price across the industry near season low numbers, I like him in tournaments and love him in cash.

Derrick FavorsDerrick Favors FD - $5600 DK - $4800
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 33.76 DK - 31.77
After Griffin, there's not much to like at the top of the power forward list, so let's look at a couple of cheaper value plays to mix in. We'll lead off with Derrick Favors, whose price remains at a season low on FanDuel, while dropping to a new low on DraftKings. This is mostly due to a poor showing against the Clippers on Tuesday, despite a much better showing the next night in Phoenix. It stood to argue Favors would pick up some more of the Jazz scoring duties with the departure of Gordon Hayward, but to date we haven't really seen that. What we have seen is a steady run of minutes, topping off at 30 against the Suns. The Lakers have been just terrible defensively at the four this season, allowing 21.5 points and 13.8 rebounds at the position with an average of 52.3 FDP allowed. I'm not saying Favors is going to do that, but even if he hits the 33 the system is calling for that's a 6X performance. favors is a high floor play with an even higher ceiling and is in play in all formats.

Ryan AndersonRyan Anderson FD - $4400 DK - $4400
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 22.23 DK - 23.57
There's a lot to love about Ryan Anderson tonight in Memphis. Trevor Ariza remains out for the final game of this road trip, which means Anderson should be guaranteed to see another run in the mid thirties. Last night in Charlotte he ran the boards for 34 minutes and put up his best showing of the season, scoring 21 points while grabbing six rebounds and an assist, a block and a steal to the tune of 8X PPD. The Grizzlies are league average defensively at the position and present a much better opportunity than Charlotte who top the list. He'll see a healthy dose of Jarrell Martin tonight, who couldn't be any less interested in getting in on the defensive part of the game, a double double is a real possibility for Anderson tonight, as is another 8X or better performance. In all formats, I'll have a healthy mix of these three players in all of my lineups tonight.

Center

DeAndre JordanDeAndre Jordan FD - $8200 DK - $7800
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 39.77 DK - 40.71
If It's consistency you want with the center position, then look no further than DeAndre Jordan. Despite some lackluster scoring performances, DJ has dominated at the glass with 73 rebounds in the first four games. The minutes have steadily increased with a season high of 38 against Jusuf Nurkic and the Blazers on Thursday night in which he scored only 7 points but grabbed 18 boards. The Detroit front court problems continue at center with Andre Drummond having the fifth worst defensive rating among big men and the Detroit defense ranked eighth at the position with an average of 45.9 FDP permitted. For Jordan, it's only a matter of time before the shooting begins to fall, and the scoring improves, and once it does the price will assuredly go up, so right now is a perfect time to get in as he's hovering steady at these prices to begin the season and paying 5X on a regular basis.

Rudy GobertRudy Gobert FD - $9000 DK - $7900
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 43.32 DK - 42.4
This is more of a DraftKings play as that FanDuel price is getting just a little out of hand. I felt it was only a matter of time before Gobert's price would climb, but $500 since the last game is a bit much, especially to a point that last game was the only time he managed a 5X performance at this cost. I don't hate Gobert on FanDuel, the matchup is quite appealing. The Lakers are ranked ninth at the position, even with the addition of Brook Lopez and Gobert should have no trouble notching his fifth double double in six games this season, I just don't see the upside, and question the floor. On DraftKings however, the $7900 pricetag is nearly $1K less than where it started the season and presents more safety and potential upside. This is the lowest scoring affair of the evening with some minor blowout potential. If anyone can go out there and fill up the stat sheet it's Rudy Gobert, and now that he's turning up the defense with eight blocks in the last two games, he's really rounding out his game. If you think he can duplicate his last outing tonight then you can roll the dice on FD, though I prefer Jordan at a significant discount. On DK however, Gobert is a solid play in all formats.

DeMarcus CousinsDeMarcus Cousins FD - $12000 DK - $11900
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 58.67 DK - 60.94
It's not often we close things out with DeMarcus Cousins as the final play at center, but theres a big "if" at play here. Boogie is now at a season high salary across the industry, and if Anthony Davis returns then this play isn't quite as appealing. In the two games since Davis went down, Boogie posted 80 points, 36 rebounds, nine assists, four blocks and two steals while nearly running the boards from start to finish paying 6.6X against the Kings on Thursday. The Cavs are a tough match up for opposing centers, but if New Orleans wants to stay competitive in this one and are without AD they're going to need to run a healthy helping of Cousins out there for the duration. While it seems unlikely, if Davis is cleared to play tonight, Cousins takes a slight hit, but is still in consideration in cash games, however if the more likely scenario plays out and Davis Sits again, Boogie is in play in all formats.

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4 Visitor Comments

  1. Love it! Should be a fun slate from start to finish

  2. Where has Joe’s brilliant advice been this year?

  3. @Brian- yes

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