Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

11/04/2017
Jerry Vanderwoude

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 11/4/17

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Point guard

Stephen CurryStephen Curry FD - $9200 DK - $9500
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 49.98 DK - 51.41
We've got a short set of only five games on the docket for today, one of which sees the Warriors traveling into Denver to face the Nuggets. This game opened with a monster 229.5 projection and sees the Warriors as just an eight point favorite. This gave us a chance to do something that doesn't happen too often here, and spotlight the Splash Brothers. We'll get to Klay in a moment, but we lead off at the point tonight with Steph Curry. Steph tends to go overlooked in cash game plays with safer plays in the form of Russell Westbrook and John Wall floating around out there, but tonight the system loves Curry among the top point per dollar plays of the day at any position. Through nine games this season Steph's averaging just under 33 minutes per game, seeing upwards of 37 while averaging 27 points per game and picking up some steady peripherals. He'll spend most of his night paired up with Jamal Murray who is a fine defender, but not really a threat to Curry. Curry is an absolutely stellar play on FanDuel where his salary sits at a season Low, conversely, the DraftKings salary is a season high and while he is still a fine cash play, the upside may be limited unless he finds a way to keep himself out on the court for 40+ minutes.

Jrue HolidayJrue Holiday FD - $7200 DK - $6700
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 34.44 DK - 35.07
Jrue Holiday saw his salary across the industry hit a high note on Monday following what was arguably his best output of the season last Saturday against the Cavaliers. Two lackluster performances later the price has dropped back down to a more desirable level. While still a bit higher than I might like to pay for a player whose usage and production can be streaky at times, I'm sold on Jrue for one specific reason tonight. The Bulls. Chicago is absolutely terrible defending against the point allowing the most fantasy points at the position at this point in the season. Holiday is a multi-tool player, capable of so much but at times he tends to get lost in the mix with the Pelicans two bigs which hurts his upside, but tonight as he'll most likely draw some combination of Kris Dunn and Jerian Grant while Chicago tries to tame the two headed beast in the New Orleans front court, it could open up Jrue to some extra looks and puts him in a nice spot for cash games with potential tournament appeal as well.

Patrick BeverleyPatrick Beverley FD - $5600 DK - $
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 31.31 DK - 31.18
Memphis ventures into the Staples center for a tilt with the Clippers in an early afternoon contest that as of Friday night, FanDuel is only including on an all day slate, while DraftKings is ignoring it entirely. If you're of the adventurous types that get in on the all day action then consider Patrick Beverley at point guard. Beverley was raining buckets through the first four games of the season, hitting double digits in points in each game but has since cooled off a bit with just one double digit scoring performance in the last three games. Beverley isn't someone you look to for big scoring performances on a nightly basis, but one you look to see fill the stat sheet all around, and to date he has yet to put in an all around performance though he has shown flashes. He's averaging 2.5 threes as well as 2 steals per game, and has three blocks already. To merit, the salary has come down in the long run and at this cost Beverley is not only a viable cash option, but once he puts together that complete game he's going to absolutely crush value.

Consider Mario Chalmers if Mike Conley's achilles keeps him out for another game.

Shooting Guard

Klay ThompsonKlay Thompson FD - $6900 DK - $7000
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 33.61 DK - 34.73
Now we have the other splash brother. Much like Steph Curry, Klay Thompson generally tends to get lost in the mix of cash game plays, falling to the wayside of safer options, though unlike Steph, Klay is a more reasonably priced consideration and has paid at or close to 5X more often than not this season. Again, we have a 4 game main slate, (5 games total) and this game has the highest projected total by a mile with minimal risk of getting out of hand. This is time to buy in on Golden State as cash plays. Thompson has been lacking in the peripheral stats, generating most of his fantasy value at the basket, but as he's shooting 52.7% from the field and 45.7% from three that is all we need at this price. The upside is limited and I don't know about Thompson as a tournament play, but in cash he's well in consideration.

Gary HarrisGary Harris FD - $5700 DK - $5300
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 27.39 DK - 27.53
Sticking with this same game, we look to the other end of the court and the Nuggets shooting guard Gary Harris. Harris led the position last season with a 50.2 shooting percentage from the field and is picking up this season right where he left off, hitting 50% from the field through his first eight games of 2017. He was shut down by the Wizards early on, held to just two points, but besides that he has averaged 16 points per game while turning up the aggressiveness with eight steals in his last four. Outside of Wednesdays blowout of the Raptors where he only ran the boards for 24 minutes, Harris has been seeing a steady run of 30-35 minutes per game, and Klay isn't all too interested in playing defense at this point, so Harris shouldn't have much trouble finding an opening and making his shot. I love Harris in all formats, particularly with the DraftKings price.

Tyreke EvansTyreke Evans FD - $6100 DK - $
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 36.11 DK - 37.14
I mentioned earlier to consider Mario Chalmers if Mike Conley remains out again today, well there are several beneficiaries of a Grizzlies squad sans Conley. Probably none more so than Tyreke Evans. With Conley out on Wednesday, Evans exploded for season highs in minutes, scoring, threes, and steals. Even prior to Conley going down Evans has been impressive in his new surroundings in Memphis, scoring an average of 21 points through his first seven games, but Wednesday he went off for 32 points (four from beyond) three boards, four assists, and two steals to the tune of 7X PPD. If Conley sits again Evans is a must play in the early afternoon contest against the Clippers and is in consideration in all formats.

Small forward

Kevin DurantKevin Durant FD - $10000 DK - $10300
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 49.83 DK - 49.33
I'm loving the Warriors today, and so is the system. from a points per dollar perspective the system likes Steph Curry more as he and Kevin Durant project for similar point totals, but it's not out of the question to consider locking both Steph and KD in and based on the projections it would certainly be something to take into consideration. Durant has scored at least 19 points in each game this season while putting up steady numbers in the rebounds and assists departments. After a subpar outing against the Clippers he bounced back on Thursday against the Spurs for a 5X performance. The Nuggets present a more formidable opponent as they're currently ranked as the toughest defensive opponent at the three allowing just 27.1 FP to the position, but KD is one of the games elite players and his skill set supersedes the match up. There may not be a ton of opportunity for upside but in cash games Kevin Durants is among my top plays on the day.

Danilo GallinariDanilo Gallinari FD - $6100 DK - $
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 29.79 DK - 31.09
After KD the system isn't really loving much at the three on the main set of games. The next three plays come in the early afternoon game and two of those are again dependent on Mike Conley. We'll get to those in a moment. Right now, lets talk Danilo Gallinari. Gallinari is a shot dependent fantasy player, and if the shot isn't falling then it can be a long night for those who roster him. Fortunately for those people, he has been hitting 50% or better in his last two contests, against the Warriors and Mavericks. He also mixed in six rebounds and four assists against the Mavs helping him to hit the 5X mark in just 25 minutes. Outside of that blow out of Dallas Danilo has been seeing minutes in the upper thirties for most of the season, scoring in the double digits each time out. Memphis is an average match up defensively and Danilo Gallinari promises to be a safe play on the all day set in cash games.

Dillon BrooksDillon Brooks FD - $3800 DK - $
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 23.6 DK - 23.43
James EnnisJames Ennis FD - $4100 DK - $
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 22.12 DK - 22.38
Sticking with the early game, and once again, if Mike Conley sits, the system is projecting Dillon Brooks and James Ennis as two of the top PPD plays of the day. Ennis had one of his best fantasy outputs of the season on Wednesday with Conley out as he saw 35 minutes for just the second time this season and tied his season high of 14 points. Brooks meanwhile saw a season high of 37 minutes, scoring 12 points and grabbing three rebounds. Both of these guys stand to take a hit if Conley suits up, but if he sits both present solid tournament plays with enough implied safety for cash games as well dependent on your salary needs.

Consider Harrison Barnes against the Timberwolves.

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Power forward

Anthony DavisAnthony Davis FD - $11800 DK - $11200
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 57.65 DK - 57.6
So, here's my take on Anthony Davis. I was once one of those "Anthony Davis is dead to me" types that refused to lock him in to my cash games because I had been burnt in the past. I have however since moved past that, because as Austyn pointed out the other day, AD has left a game that he has started and not returned less than 2% of the time, and more often than not he pays monster value even at ridiculous salaries. While I don't have hard numbers in front of me, it at least feels to me like since the start of the 2016 season, Davis has been much more reliable and less prone to the injury bug. I know the bug bit him just last Tuesday, and many of you may have been burnt that day, I know I was, I was also burnt that night by Jimmy Butler waiting until after lock that night to announce he had a tummy ache so my night was already shot. The point is, for long term success in DFS, you need to have a short memory and focus on the stats and the match up at hand. Statistically, Anthony Davis is playing in another world this season. He's running the boards for nearly the whole game each time out and has double doubled in every game. He and Boogie are finally starting to compliment each other, which is beneficial to each, as well as to their fantasy owners. As for the matchup, the Bulls statistically have been much better in the front court this season, as they're allowing the fewest FP to opposing power forwards in the league this season. On a shorter slate, the way Davis has played so far this season, I'm willing to take the chance.

Dirk NowitzkiDirk Nowitzki FD - $5100 DK - $4600
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 25.43 DK - 26.05
Dirk Nowitzki isn't letting the fact that he just celebrated his 100th birthday slow him down any on the court. Okay, maybe he's not that old, but Dirk has been around long enough that you'd expect him to be running on fumes, but he has been one of the more consistent plays in DFS in the early part of this season. Sure, Dirk only sees 24 minutes per game on average, but he's also priced accordingly. As a player in the 5K range, particularly as one who averages 9.9 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 1.7 assists per game, that's really all you need. As cash game plays go, Dirk is a solid value.

Draymond GreenDraymond Green FD - $7600 DK - $7200
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 37.36 DK - 37.09
I will have a Warriors stack in a tournament somewhere. Draymond Green is to Kevin Durant as Klay Thompson is to Steph Curry, he'll get you similar PPD projection at a cheaper salary. Green is the riskiest of the Golden State lineup that we will talk about today, as there are days where the shot just doesn't connect, and those are the days where he will kill your lineup. Over the past two games however he has been on point, scoring a season high of 16 in each. I don't know that I'll be looking to Draymond in cash games as he has a tendency to just run cold at times, but in a Warriors stack, or just as a GPP play, you have to love the upside as he's always a threat to go out there and pick up double digit rebounds, and even assists, which when mixed in with a good shooting game can lead to big things. The Nuggets are allowing an average of 25.5 points and 11 rebounds to opposing fours, so this could be one of those big game nights for Green, and I'll be sure to have exposure if thats the case. He has paid at least 4.4X since the October 23rd tilt with the Mavs, and paid over 5X in 2 of his last four. There isn't much upside to be had from a player maxing out at the 28 minute mark, but for the cost, Dirk is more than capable of giving us what we need in cash contests, especially against a Timberwolves team allowing the most fantasy points to the position.

Center

DeMarcus CousinsDeMarcus Cousins FD - $12000 DK - $11600
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 58.58 DK - 60.42
I promise you, no more Warriors. Even if I wanted to Zaza just doesn't offer much to get excited about compared to the rest of the team. Instead we'll kick of the center position with the most logical of choices, DeMarcus Cousins. Boogie followed up one of his less impressive outings against the Magic on Monday night with a monster 35 points in 40 minutes, paired with 9 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 blocks and 6 steals against the TimberWolves on Wednesday. He ended the night with 73.8 FanDuel points for what will surely be one of the top performances of the season. Boogie and Davis have been solid plays all season, and as I noted above they're playing off of each other rather well now. Defensively the Bulls allow the second most fantasy points to opposing big men and Cousins could be in line for his first triple double of the season with a second straight double double all but guaranteed. If I had to choose one or the other, I would lock in Cousins over Davis, but if the salary is there, then going with both in cash is just about the best way you can go tonight.

Robin LopezRobin Lopez FD - $6100 DK - $5400
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 30.85 DK - 30.28
Now, lets say you opt for Davis over Boogie, and need a cheaper option at the five. Well, in the same game we have Robin Lopez. The Pelicans might be powerful offensively, but on defense they're a bottom ten team. Lopez has been sharp this past week, notching his first double double of the season against the Magic last night, following a 22 point showing in 33 minutes against Hassan Whiteside and the Heat. He has paid 4.5X or better in three of his last four games, while getting about 30 minutes of court time each time out. Boogie's an average defender, and if RoLo can draw him into foul trouble early that'll only help his cause. As cheap plays go, you could do much worse than Robin Lopez in cash games. Though you could also do better (see above).

Marc GasolMarc Gasol FD - $8400 DK - $
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 42.42 DK - 42.37
In between Boogie and RoLo, if you're playing the all day slate we have Marc Gasol. Gasol is once again listed a questionable, but he has been listed as such for the last two games and wound up playing a total of 68 minutes in those contests. With two days off, I'm sure he'll be fine for todays contest, and if not, at least it's the early game so we will know well in advance. Gasol has been fairly consistent this season, though he failed to hit the 5X mark in his last three games, the Clippers present a league average match up, and are allowing 15 points, and 10.9 rebounds to opposing centers, which proves favorable for Gasol. If for some reason Gasol is held out, then consider Brandan Wright as a value option.

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5 Visitor Comments

  1. So on Fanduel last night, I had three 410, one 389, one 373, one 369, and two 354 point lineups and still didnt win big. BULLSHIT! LOL! Only the the third time ever I have had a lineup 360+ and i get 6 in one night but nothing much to show for it! Dammit!!! What a damn fantasy night. Anyway, Drummond will kill the Kings’ bigs and none of those same bigs can guard Tobias…NO’s pace, turnovers, and terrible play vs SF’s will play to the favor of…Nwaba!

    • Lol. Same with me on DK. 342 and won $7.18 Guess Everyone played Bron 🙂

  2. Ya last night was nuts. This slate tonight is pretty tough as well and definitely tough to write about lol. Thanks Jerry

  3. Thanks Austyn! Yeah, personally I had a much better night on DraftKings than FanDuel last night which has felt like the norm this season, and as someone who has always preferred FD I’m now finding myself with bigger buy ins on DK. I like what you’re saying there Marcus, but that game has the lowest projection of the day (197) and the system wasn’t too high on those plays in the early runs, things change throughout the day, and with just four games I’m sure some names from that game will make their way to the optimal lineups they just didn’t jump off the page when looking at the early numbers. I also thought about throwing in a “consider” for Nwaba. I will certainly be considering him. Thanks for reading and better luck tonight!

  4. Thats a bogus stat. In the last 2 years its easily been 5-10% of games he has left with injures games like 8 times in the last year. Dont get me wrong I believe you sh ould play him when the matchup dictates it but to look at his whole career is deceptive this has happened over his last 100 games or so and he has definitely come out of about 8-10 games in the time frame.

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