Daily Fantasy Football Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 16 - 12/24/17

Why hello there! Expecting another brilliant DFS football article from Doug? Too bad, my friends. For the next two weeks you're going to get me. Thankfully I am pretty awesome at writing picks articles. If you are in the market for awesome picks articles, please do read on.

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Quarterback

Cam Newton FD 8300 DK 6800
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 22.47 DK - 23.28
I am pretty sure I'm doomed to guess wrong on Cam Newton in every game of his career, but will that stop me from headlining my first picks article of the season with him? Heck no. Cam's career has this wild trajectory where the Panthers went from turning him loose, to trying to protect him, to realizing he kinda sucks at passing when he's not running, to realizing that since he sucks at passing when he's not running it probably doesn't matter if he just runs a bunch come Hell or high water. So now we're getting this weird QB/RB hybrid where he is only good for 175-250 passing yards per game, but is also getting 11-14 carries per game. This is hard for my merely human brain to comprehend since it's so unusual, so please pardon me when I just trust the numbers here. The truth of the matter is that while the daily fantasy football sites weight rushing yards as more significant than passing yards, running QBs will always be a value even if they lack some consistency. I think I've seen enough out of Newton at this point, though. With 14 carries last week and 11 the week before that, it's clear that Carolina is happy to just jam the dude on the ground while they fish around for that #2 seed. This week he also gets the literal dream match-up: Tampa Bay has allowed the 5th highest yards per carry on the ground while also allowing the very most passing yards in the league. Easy game, boys. Cam all the way! (sorry in advance when he throws for 130 yards and 2 picks).

Russell Wilson FD 9000 DK 7000
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 22 DK - 22.75
So I've called Cam a poor man's Wilson, but after watching that Rams game last week I'm not so sure. I'd like to come up with some excuse as to why the game went the way it did, but I'm sort of flummoxed. Sure, there was bad weather... but weren't the Rams playing in the same weather? Oy. Still, with the injuries to Wentz and Watson earlier this year Wilson reigns supreme as the most consistent fantasy QB from week to week even if last week was pretty bad. He's basically a better passer than Cam, but gets slightly worse running opportunity. It's hard to see playing him over Cam on FanDuel where Cam is $700 cheaper, but what about on DraftKings where the prices are so much closer? I'm not sure. On one hand, Wilson's fantasy scoring really relies on him scoring touchdowns. On the other hand, he's essentially the whole offense, so he has a much higher touchdown participation % than your average quarterback. Dallas is a below average defense, but Tampa Bay (Cam's opponent) is an historically bad defense. The Cowboys getting Elliott back also means they should be better at controlling the clock. I'm not sure where I'll ultimately land on this on on DK, but my guess is that Cam wins the day even if he is more volatile than Russ.

Jay Cutler FD 6700 DK 4800
Opponent KC
Proj Points FD - 15.61 DK - 16.77
Okay, so it's only a DraftKings play, but Cutler is awfully cheap for a guy who put up a 23 fantasy point week 2 games ago. You could also argue that he's expensive for a guy who scored 9 fantasy points last week. Kansas City, meanwhile, is a pretty overrated passing defense. Considering they have Marcus Peters, it's pretty amazing that they are in the bottom third of the league in terms of yards per passing attempt allowed and have given up the 6th most passing yards overall. Cutler has averaged 45 passing attempts per game in each of the last 2 games, and it's very encouraging to see them move even more of Kenyan Drake's touches to the passing game last week as well. The Dolphins don't really feature a marquee receiver, but that's actually a plus against KC, who is much better against WR1s than they are when you take a look at them more broadly. Between Landry, Parker, Drake, and Kenny Stills I think someone gets some work done here, and I think Cutler makes for a great tournament pivot at the very least.

Running Back

Ezekiel Elliott FD 8300 DK 8000
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 20.92 DK - 22.01
Fresh off his suspension, Elliott returns to action well rested after his absurd usage earlier this season. For a guy who was topping 25-30 touches with regularity, this makes a huge difference at this point in the season. And with a lot of teams feeling relatively secure in their playoff position, it stands to reason that the Cowboys will be going all in on Zeke this week. They're a game behind Atlanta for the 2nd wild card slot in the NFC, and every last game matters. With the passing game in shambles and the Cowboys clinging on for life, it's hard to imagine Elliott touching the ball less than 25 times here. And at just $8,300 on FanDuel and $8,000 on DraftKings? Yes, please. Seattle's days as a defensive giant are well behind them at this point - they've been basically league average against the rush. In a game where the 'Boys are favored by 5 points, everything seems to be lining up for a week of Elliott being both the ultimate chalk play and the safest running back play of the week.

Devonta Freeman FD 7000 DK 6500
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 18.99 DK - 20.48
This one depends on Tevin Coleman's status, but it's simply too much value to ignore at this point. With Coleman in and out of the concussion protocol and Devonta Freeman performing admirably my hunch is that we see him flying solo with the running back duties once again this week. In the past 2 contests Devonta has averaged 23 carries, and perhaps just as importantly, he drew 7 targets in the passing game last week. The last time these two teams met the Falcons called Freeman's number 24 times, and it stands to reason they'll go back to the well here again. The luster comes off this pick significantly if Coleman is back, of course, but if he isn't you can expect Freeman to be one of the highest owned RBs on the slate as well.

EDIT: With Tevin Coleman expected to play, this write-up is pretty much only relevant in the universe where Tevin Coleman remained injured.

Kareem Hunt FD 8300 DK 8400
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 19.88 DK - 21.48
Leonard Fournette FD 8100 DK 7500
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 19.28 DK - 20.85
Right, so you can't play every single running back in the 8,000s, but I wanted to highlight that I think there is a lot of value at this tier this week. Hunt seems to have regained his early season form and usage, and he'll have a terrific match-up against the Dolphins this week. The price has come back up, but so has the performance. What to do? As for Fournette, you'll need some assurances as to his availability, but when he's firing he's in that Elliott/Bell tier in terms of expected usage per game. He's got a dream spot against the 49ers, and if he's a go he's another guy with a floor through the roof. At this point I'd call Hunt more of a big tournament play and Fournette more of a cash game play.

Some cheap options: We typically like to key in on a cheap to midrange running back for our 50/50s and double-ups, but that might be tricky this week. That said, I still believe in Kenyan Drake. The carries came down last week, but the targets shot through the roof. It's hard to pencil in a running back for double digit targets, and the Dolphins receivers were having a tough time last week, but with Peters looming for KC I wouldn't be shocked if he were excellent once again. Another cheap guy that's probably just a tournament play is CJ Anderson. The carries have been up and down, but he did get 30 of them last week, and he's cheap.

 

Wide Receiver

Wide Receiver is very interesting this week, primarily because we have so many great big money options elsewhere and so many good midrange options at WR. The best big money option at WR in our system appears to be Michael Thomas, who seems to have re-emerged as a double digit target guy and touchdown threat as it has been revealed that Alvin Kamara is not THE God, but simply A God. I like him fine, but I heavily suspect no receiver over $8,000 will make his way into our optimal lineups now that Antonio Brown is out.

Sterling Shepard FD 6700 DK 6600
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 14.56 DK - 18.04
Shepard disappeared with Geno Smith under center, but since the whole world seems to agree to pretend like that never happened, let's look at a couple of his last games with Eli, shall we? The Giants' de-facto WR1 went out there and dropped 139 yards and a touchdown on the Eagles on 11 receptions (and 16 targets!), and we also saw him go for 11 catches and 142 yards against San-Fran earlier this season. I think there's a little bust potential here, but you just don't get double digit targets for under $7,000 these days, so you can count on him being very heavily owned here.

Marquise Goodwin FD 6800 DK 5200
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 14.08 DK - 16.96
Hat tip to Doug for projecting exactly how this San Francisco situation would go. It turns out that going from a 0 at QB to something other than a 0 really means a lot for your passing game, and Goodwin seems to be having a coming of age party as a result. In the last 3 weeks his average line has been 8 catches on 11 targets for 106.3 yards. That's WR1 production easily, and while he hasn't punched one into the end zone in that time, it's just kept his price in a very affordable range. Jacksonville has been an absurdly tough passing defense this season, which is the only thing keeping Goodwin off the top of this list, but I wonder if he should just be there anyway. You're certainly taking on some risk given the match-up, but given how swamped SF will likely be here, what other options do they really have? If Goodwin is bad this week, you should be sure to double down on him for week 17.

The cheapies
Nelson Agholor FD 5900 DK
Opponent OAK
Proj Points FD - 15.22 DK - 0
Kendall Wright FD 5100 DK 3800
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 11.81 DK - 15.07
What can I say? I'm a sucker for cheap possession guys. It's a drum I've been beating on the NFL Podcast all season, but new quarterbacks tend to key in on a possession receiver they are comfortable with and just send the ball their way over and over again. We're on back to back weeks with double digit targets for Kendall Wright, and his prices make him a wildly attractive option against Cleveland's terrible passing defense. I know it seems like Wright sort of came out of nowhere this season, but you're talking about a guy who is still just 28 years old and had a 139 target season 4 years ago. It sure looks like there's still gas in that tank. Agholor, meanwhile, was starting to surface as a great outlet for Wentz before he went down. With everything in Philly in flux it wasn't clear where the targets would go, but he went out there and hauled in 7 catches on 9 targets for 59 yards and a touchdown against the Giants. The Giants were a great match-up, sure, but Oakland ranks just behind them at 7.7 yards per attempt allowed, good for 5th worst in the NFL. I'd guess Agholor sees more cash game ownership than Wright, but I like both frankly.

Also considered: Robert Woods. Almost certainly still too cheap if he's at full strength, and if he is, he's among the safest guys on this list. I'm still a little concerned that the Rams are happy to just dump it to Gurley in the same spots where Woods might normally get looks, but I think he's still pretty clearly the #1 option in the passing game. He seems like a fine inclusion for any DFS format.

The Julio Jones Question: I mean, what the actual heck? He goes off for 45 fantasy points against Tampa Bay 4 weeks ago, and goes for 7 fantasy points against them last week. He'll have another repeat match-up against New Orleans here, and he was solid but unspectacular against their solid cornerback duo the last time around. I'd much rather prioritize high priced RBs these weeks, and I doubt he makes the cut in anything other than some GPPs for me (and those just for my sanity if he goes off again).

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski FD 8400 DK 7400
Opponent BUF
Proj Points FD - 18.97 DK - 22.4
Ummm, Gronk week? I haven't played Gronkowski a single time this season, but this week is shaping up to potentially be my first. The recipe is there: crappy tight end options, lots of excellent value WRs, and no need to spend up huge at QB. It also seems like a pretty good time of year to key in on the Pats' big tight end. We've got double digit targets for back to back weeks, and he's turned those into an average of 9 catches and 157 yards. The Pats still have plenty to play for given that they don't even have a first round bye locked up, and Gronk seems to be the main thing working for the Pats offense right now. The Bills have been solid against the pass this season, but this isn't one of those times to sweat the match-up. If the Pats decide to get Gronkowski involved he will be, and my money is on "he will be."

Greg Olsen FD 6600 DK 5200
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 11.29 DK - 13.89
Greg Olsen returned from obscurity to pull in 9 catches on 12 targets for 116 yards and a touchdown, and given how lost Cam has seen in the passing game at times it would be a surprise to see him lose significant target share going forward. As previously mentioned, Tampa Bay is a dream match-up for opposing pass catchers, but you have to wonder if this target share is for real. He was on the field for 92% of the Panthers' snaps in week 14, for instance, without catching a pass. Is this really where we want to sink $6,600 and one of our position slots? Oh, baby.

Some other reasonable options: Zach Ertz, Delanie Walker, Travis Kelce and Evan Engram all saw great target share last week. I'm still feeling a little cold on these guys, though. If you compare them to similarly priced options at other positions the consistency doesn't seem to be there, and none really has a spectacular match-up this week. I could see going down from Gronk to Engram, but otherwise I'll likely pay up. And before you ask, this really doesn't look like a week to go even deeper at TE. What a miserable season for the cheap tight end.

EDIT: With Hunter Henry placed on the IR, expect significant Antonio Gates ownership given that he's at the minimum prices.

Defense

The Chicago Bears take on the woeful Cleveland Browns, who are projected for the lowest point total of the week. Cleveland also presents insanely high upside for opposing defenses on account of their turnovers - with 25 interceptions allowed they are %25 worse than the 2nd most interception-friendly team in the league. Truly astounding stuff. Well done, everybody! The Bears are reasonably priced this week, and I suspect they'll be the highest owned DEF overall.

The Pittsburgh Steelers look pretty good against the hapless TJ Yates led Texans, who completed a terrible 12 of their 31 passes last week. In a game where they'll almost surely be behind, the Texans' turning to their mistake prone QB 30+ times could lead to the Steelers being the highest upside DEF of the week.

The Kansas City Chiefs go up against the Jay Cutler led Dolphins, and yeah, I think there are some interesting Dolphins for tournament purposes this week... but Cutler did get picked 3 times and fumbled 4 times. Upside? Yeah, you betcha.

 

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