Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 3/16/18

Welcome to NBA Friday! With March Madness in full swing, you may have trouble keeping up with the NBA. We’re here for you. The NBA gave us a 9-gamer on a random Thursday last night, so we’re now getting a measly 6-game Friday slate. 6 games is actually a sweet spot, but we’re just used to 10+ games on Friday. There isn’t any 1 game that stands far above the rest and we do have a lot of interesting situations to address.
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Point guard

Goran Dragic FD - $6700 DK - $7500
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 35.01 DK - 36.5

Let’s kick it off with Goran Dragic and the Miami Heat. Over 30 minutes in 4 of the last 5, he’s as safe as you can get at the position. He’s always productive when on the floor and has posted a 1.21 fantasy point per minute on the year. He draws a match-up against the Lakers and Lonzo Ball/Isaiah Thomas, who rank 23rd against point guards. Dragic is the leader of this offense and will always come through one way or another. The match-up is easy and the price is great. Dragic will be a lock in my cash games and most tournaments. Let’s keep it movin’.

De'Aaron Fox FD - $5900 DK - $5400
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 27.22 DK - 27.6

De’ Aaron Fox has been great since returning from injury and there’s no reason not to think he’s fully healthy. Especially after watching that last game against the Heat, where he willed the team to OT and an eventual W. In the 3 games since his return, he’s played 30,33, and 35 minutes. Those games resulted in 25, 29, and 35 fantasy points. Sounds great to me when you consider they are all worse match-ups than tonight. Against a Curry and Klay-less Warriors team, he’ll see Quinn Cook and Livingston on defense. Livingston is fine, but he doesn’t play many minutes and will be needed elsewhere is KD ends up missing. Fox is still too cheap on both sites and can be played in either format. He will have to be a reason this game stays close and Vegas doesn’t think it gets out of hand with just a 12 point spread.

Russell Westbrook FD - $12100 DK - $11600
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 54.41 DK - 57.42

If you like a lot of value on this slate, you could very well end up with Westbrook. He’s the same Russell Westbrook that we’re used to and gets a Match-up against a Clippers team that doesn’t play perimeter defense. They’ve actually gotten a bit better down low with Tobias, but the opposite has happened outside. Against PG’s, 26th. Against SG’s, 28th. No matter who covers Russ, he will get to the rim and score. The Clippers are lacking any size/athletic combo and DeAndre Jordan isn’t a great rim protector in the slightest. Now with all of that being said, a $12k price tag is nothing to scoff at. You will have to sacrifice elsewhere and I’m not sure it’s something I’m willing to do on this slate. That is unless Paul George is out. That would get him a few extra shots and boost his floor just a bit. We will see as we move along at each position. Let’s get to SG.

Shooting Guard

D'Angelo Russell FD - $6900 DK - $6500
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 31.8 DK - 33.76

It's nice to get a little taste of D'Angelo Russell after we were deprived all season long. I don't know if it's fair to say he's "back to normal", but he's definitely putting up numbers like it. With 35, 40, and 45 in 3 of the last 4 games, it's hard to not get excited. His price is still in the $6k's and he'll be on my roster every single game until that changes. He's also drawn an impeccable match-up with the 76ers, who don't play a lick of defense. Against the SG position, in particular, they rank 25th. Russell is going to put up another 35+ fantasy points and nobody would be surprised to see 50. Shooting guard isn't always the most exciting position and doesn't leave much of an opportunity cost on most nights.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope FD - $6100 DK - $6100
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 31.24 DK - 31.45

Another solid mid-range option comes in the form of 35+ minutes of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Looking at his box score, he only saw 32 minutes against the Warriors is because he played 36 against the Nuggets less than 24 hours before. They're now on 2 days of rest and 35 + minutes is a virtual lock. He's been great while on the floor, too, posting a 1.17 fantasy point per minute line since the ASB. He's putting up 30 fantasy points on most nights and flashing that 40+ on frequent occasion. Wayne Ellington and Tyler Johnson are pretty average defenders and definitely never a reason to not play someone. KCP isn't on the same level as Russell for me, but he's extremely safe in all formats and I'll have plenty of exposure myself. I just won't go out of my way like I will for D-Russ.

Wayne Ellington FD - $4200 DK - $4400
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 22.26 DK - 23.71

We looked at Dragic at PG and I told you he's one of the safest plays on the entire board. Wayne Ellington may be right up there with Dragic as the most reliable Heat option for the price. Seeing 35 and 30 minutes over the last two games with Wade out, he's hit 20 and 28 fantasy points. At a measly $4.2k price tag, we're happy with either of those in cash games. He's never afraid to shoot and this team doesn't really mind without anyone that necessarily needs to shoot a lot. KCP is actually a pretty good defender, but the Lakers rank 22nd against SG's. He could also end up at the 3 if Isaiah and Ball are both on the floor together. Ellington is going to be open a ton and will finish between 15-30, depending on how hot his 3-point shot is. If you need safety, Wayne Ellington is not going to hurt you tonight. He will also help you pay up at another position or two, which is invaluable on this slate.

Small forward

Corey Brewer FD - $4900 DK - $4400
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 25.04 DK - 23.92

Small forward is a spot to pay down tonight. In fact, Jayson Tatum in the $6k's is probably as high as you'll find me on any team. We know KD is questionable, but Paul George has joined him. The top of SF is now unplayable and we are in turn looking at Corey Brewer. I'm not proud of myself, but I guess Billy Donovan missed his Florida Gator darling. Not my fault. He is throwing Corey Brewer out there for huge minutes every night and he's done nothing but produce. In the last 4 games, Brewer has posted 21, 24, 30, and 33 fantasy points. Yes, seriously. He now sees a terrible team in the Clippers that give up a whopping ton of peripherals. He's once again in play and should put up 25+ again.

Keep an eye on Kevin Durant If he is out, I like Casspi and Iggy more. If he plays, he will be one of the highest owned players on the slate once again.

Power forward

Draymond Green FD - $7800 DK - $8600
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 40.4 DK - 40.01

With Curry and Klay out, Green would already be one of the top plays at this position. If you add Kevin Durant to that list, yikes. We already looked at Casspi and Iguodala at the 3, so you know how much I love targeting this situation. Green, as a distributor of this offense, is going to touch the ball on almost every single possession. He did miss last game, but it was already announced that it was for precautionary reasons. He's going to pick up 35 minutes just like always and Vegas thinks the game stays relatively close with just a 12 point spread. We'll see guys like Zach Randolph and WCS cover Green, or at least try to. He's going to dice up the defense and I would be willing to bet that a triple-double won't be far away. Maybe I'm bullish here, but as a guy that doesn't love Draymond Green in DFS, it takes a lot. If Durant is out, you won't find a lineup of mine without Draymond Green. If Durant plays, he'll be sprinkled in some cash games and a few tourneys, but I would rather go Simmons in tourneys if KD is in.

Julius Randle FD - $7400 DK - $8200
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 41.9 DK - 43.91

We're going to be playing a lot of L.A Lakers if their rotation remains down the stretch. On non-back to backs, they are only playing 6 or 7 guys legitimate minutes. It allows them to all see big minutes and Julius Randle has benefited as much as anyone. Putting up 35 every night and 50+ on occasion, Randle is turning the corner on his career. He still has some polishing to do, but it's clear how lethal he will be in his prime. Tonight's match-up with the Heat isn't anything to get excited about, but it's not bad. Adebayo isn't nearly fast enough and Johnson isn't big enough. He'll see a mismatch either way with Whiteside out and at his $7.5k price tag, I like him in all formats. He really is the number 1 option on this offense at this point and won't hurt you in cash games. Nearly ever.

Bam Adebayo FD - $3900 DK - $4900
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 24.3 DK - 23.74
James Johnson FD - $4700 DK - $5200
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 26.6 DK - 26.69

Speaking of Adebayo and Johnson, they are in play themselves. With Hassan Whiteside out last game, Johnson picked up 33 minutes and Adebayo grabbed 27. Adebayo has been very efficient when on the floor and he's a guy I have no reservations about in cash games. He's going to get the minutes and will produce when on the floor. As for James Johnson, he's a bit more up and down, and his status as a play could actually depend on Josh Richardson's status as much as anyone's. I do think he fits this game very well, but who knows if Spoelstra will agree. It's always up in the air and I couldn't be surprised by 15 minutes and a big Olynyk game. For that reason, I like Johnson in tournaments and Adebayo in cash games. If you can guarantee me the minutes from Johnson, I love him in cash games. I just don't know if that's more wishful thinking.

Carmelo Anthony will pick up a bunch of shots if Paul George is out. He's always in play with the recent consistency, but that would absolutely add some upside against a porous defense.

Center

Joel Embiid FD - $10600 DK - $9500
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 48.15 DK - 51.07

There isn't a whole lot to pay up for on this slate and there is a lot of value. There is no reason to avoid Joel Embiid unless you are afraid of his minutes. He's put up 50 fantasy points in back to back games and while hot streaks aren't something you can predict, Embiid is a guy you want to target when playing well. He's been over 30 minutes in each of those games and will continue seeing minutes as these games still matter for the Sixers. He gets the best possible match-up he can have, facing the Nets. The same team that ranks dead last against centers by a whole 3 fantasy points per game. He's going to dominate while in the game and isn't too expensive to play. Even if you want to play Russell Westbrook, it's not a problem. I will have as much Embiid as my roster build allows. You could argue a blowout I guess, but I'll never listen to that with an 8.5 point spread. Give me all the JoJo.

Aron Baynes FD - $4500 DK - $3800
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 22.52 DK - 22.21
Greg Monroe FD - $4800 DK - $5100
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 21.17 DK - 21.25

We'll close things off with some more potential value. As I write this, Al Horford is questionable to play. If he plays, I'll ignore this situation as a whole. If he's out, both Aron Baynes and Greg Monroe are very much in play. With the loss of Daniel Theis for the rest of the year, these 2 and Yabusele are the only real big bodies. With Horford out last game, Monroe picked up 25 minutes and Baynes 33. Remember, this game did go to OT, so take 3 or 4 away from each guy. It would still put both at an acceptable number and especially for their respective prices. Baynes is definitely the safer option as he'll match-up well with Nikola Vucevic. Monroe is definitely riskier, but he can stuff the stat sheet like crazy when hot and put up 30 fantasy points in 20 minutes. I would rather go Baynes, but it's very close. Embiid is one of my favorite son the slate and he will be on most of my lineups anyway. Good luck tonight and feel free to comment below if you have any questions! Thanks!

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