Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

James Davis

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 3/25/18

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Point guard

Patty MillsPatty Mills FD - $4100 DK - $4500
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 22.26 DK - 23.6
George HillGeorge Hill FD - $4700 DK - $
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 25.23 DK - 25.73
Our point guard position tonight starts with two cheap plays cut from a slightly different cloth. On one hand you have Patty Mills, who has been steadily paying value over the course of the Spurs' six game winning streak as they've worked to cement their playoff spot in the West. On the other hand you have George Hill, whose performance and minutes seem to come and go at a moment's notice. But when they come, they come. I think the Spurs will keep Mills out there for his 31-35 minute rotations in an average match-up with Bledsoe and the Bucks, making him a very solid cash game option. I suspect Hill will see cash game ownership here as well in an all-timer of a match-up versus the Nets, but one has to consider the blowout a very real possibility here. Cleveland has turned it up recently, and when they're dumpstering these bad teams Hill has clocked in at 26 minutes or less. Hill is a great tournament play and a fine cash game option depending on the slate you are playing.

Kyle LowryKyle Lowry FD - $8300 DK - $8300
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 38.54 DK - 40.14
We gained a lot of clarity about what the Raptors are willing to do when the Raptors played a close one against the Nets. Lowry stayed out there for 37 minutes and was excellent, pouring in a triple-double for 53 fantasy points. It hasn't mattered how many minutes Lowry has played in his last 4 games, as he's come close to paying value in each of them, but it does help to know that the Raptors are still trying and are willing to leave him out there for the same run he was getting in the early season.
The Clippers are still in the playoff hunt in the West (albeit by a thread), so you can count on them to at least do their best to keep it close. I'm not sure there's huge upside here, but Lowry is a solid cash game option.

Strongly consider Quinn Cook, even at these advanced prices. No Curry means a LOT more time on the court, and a lot more usage as well. There are flies in the ointment - he's expensive now, and the Jazz are a bad match-up - but he's still very much cash game viable.

Shooting Guard

Eric GordonEric Gordon FD - $5200 DK - $7600
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 33.37 DK - 35.38
James HardenJames Harden FD - $11800 DK - $11600
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 61.3 DK - 64.82
Gordon and Harden were 76% and 65% owned in FanDuel cash games on Saturday night, and since their prices haven't changed here, you can expect more of the same in an excellent match-up with the hapless Hawks. It's a simple price and opportunity mismatch here. With no Chris Paul these guys both see a sizable uptick in time of possession and performance, and his absence will mean they'll get it again here. If Paul is back, or the Rockets decide to rest either, you obviously have to adjust your expectations. Assuming all systems are go, though, we're looking at two very chalky options for the late slate.

Donovan MitchellDonovan Mitchell FD - $7700 DK - $7800
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 37.57 DK - 37.85
Ooooh, it's a perfect storm for one Donovan Mitchell. The Warriors are playing without nearly everyone, and they're still playing one of the league's fastest paces. The Jazz, meanwhile, are desperately clinging to the 8th seed in the West, and every win matters a ton. In close match-ups Mitchell has been playing 38+ minutes, and he's a downright steal if that's the case here. A word of caution - be very careful when using defense vs. position stats for a team like the Warriors. They're literally a completely different team at the moment, and you can't count on the potpourri of back-ups to perform as well defensively as the well oiled machine of the starters. As a result I love Mitchell in all formats.

Small forward

LeBron JamesLeBron James FD - $12800 DK - $
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 63.81 DK - 64.44
I am not sure we'll actually run LeBron in cash games, but this one basically comes down to projecting game scripts. Let's break down the viable results:

Least likely: Brooklyn blows out CLE.
Not likely: Brooklyn keeps it close.
More likely: Cle blows Brooklyn out.
Most likely: CLE wins by a healthy but not blowout margin.

In a match-up with the NBA's worst defense, LeBron is really only a bad play if Cleveland blows Brooklyn out AND it's not because LeBron went off. That's certainly possible here - it's exactly what happened in the PHX game - but please know that there are plenty of scenarios where LeBron absolutely goes off. If there's an argument against playing him in cash games, it basically comes down to the price. It's hard for LeBron to KILL the teams that fade him here, just because he needs 65 fantasy points to score 5x points per dollar here. The upside here is undeniable though, and if there's any value at all on the early slate LeBron will be a tough guy to get away from.

Paul GeorgePaul George FD - $7900 DK - $7700
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 38.9 DK - 39.36
Don't tell the Thunder they don't have a lot to play for, because they certainly haven't been acting like it. George has averaged 38 minutes in his last 4 games, and during this crazy time of the season that's worth a heck of a lot. The performance has been there as well - he's averaged nearly 5x points per dollar in spite of the fact that 3 of those games featured brutal match-ups in Boston, Toronto, and Miami. He'll get a much better spot against the Trail Blazers here, who should struggle to find an answer for the size and strength Melo/George/Adams. That triple threat means George will likely draw Evan Turner, and he should be able to make the most of it.

Also considered: Trevor Ariza.


Power forward

Jabari ParkerJabari Parker FD - $5400 DK - $5900
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 26.37 DK - 26.93
The easy #1 in my power forward rankings almost regardless of Giannis' status. If you think the Bucks are going to push the Greek Freak with the playoff picture in the East solidified I think you're kinda nuts, but either way we should be looking at 30 minutes or so of Jabari. Yes, the Spurs are a less than ideal match-up, but this price is simply incorrect for him if the new normal is 30 minutes. I'm not concerned by one whiff of a performance in a non-game against the Bulls. Buy Parker at his lowest price for the rest of the season, and I don't think you'll regret it.

Derrick FavorsDerrick Favors FD - $5800 DK - $5500
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 28.99 DK - 28.32
Another very safe power forward option from where I'm sitting. The idea for Favors is the same as for Mitchell. The Jazz need this game, the Warriors don't, and Favors' minutes are trending into a very affordable range on these prices. He's paid 6x+ in each of his last two games, and should have a reasonable match-up here on the pace of the game alone. It's too bad that Draymond Green will be back for this one as Jordan Bell would be a much more favorable opposing defender, but nonetheless I think we can safely roll Favors out there as an overwhelmingly popular play on all sites.

Markieff MorrisMarkieff Morris FD - $5900 DK - $5400
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 30.32 DK - 30.69
Marcus MorrisMarcus Morris FD - $5700 DK - $5900
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 30.23 DK - 31.11
The Morris brothers are listed together here for more than just being identical twins, they're actually in pretty similar situations. Neither of their teams really has other options they trust, and both are performing well on eerily similar prices. Both have plus plus match-ups against bad teams where blowout risk is a real concern, and both are playing for just playoff seeding at this point. If this doesn't sound like a ringing endorsement, that's because it's not. The position is just rough, and depending on the size of your slate some safe/boring options might be just what you're in the market for.


Clint CapelaClint Capela FD - $7100 DK - $7000
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 36.38 DK - 36.51
If power forward is thin, center is downright unhealthy. One of the few bright spots could be Clint Capela. Yes, the Rockets are on the 2nd half of a back to back, but Capela didn't need to work very hard in a blowout of the Pelicans. There is obviously blowout risk against the Hawks as well, but the Hawks are also a top 5 match-up for opposing centers. The mix of Dedmon and Muscala simply can't match Capela's max-effort style, and more importantly, they are very unlikely to get him into foul trouble. It's hard to call Capela safe given his recent track record, but with the decreasing price I think he's looking like a fair value on a thin set of slates.

Steven AdamsSteven Adams FD - $7000 DK - $6800
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 32.45 DK - 31.39
After 3 bad games leading up to a game off against the Hawks, Adams has been downright excellent. He's averaged almost exactly 20 points and 10 boards a game in some pretty tough match-ups, and like George, he'll get a much juicier match-up here against the Trail Blazers' rotating cast of bigs. The rebounds are no surprise for Adams, but the scoring is a very welcome change. After getting just 9.4 shots a game for most of the year they Thunder seem to be relying on his offensive game a lot more, averaging 12 in the last 4 games. If this is Adams' new role on the team he's simply under-priced, and I'd be happy to play him in any format.


image sources

4 Visitor Comments

  1. I have a question guys. I aee almost every guy on the list, every list svery day, is projected at roughly 5p/$. I have seen comments about plsyers hitting value at 5x. I am most certain that previously(2016,17) that you talked about 6x/$ being the goal. I play only GPP and tourneys and 5x will not make the money. Is the 5x valuea winner in cash games? Not that the answer will improve my outcome but 300 FP in a GPP gets the airball. Input from all is welcome. Thanks guys.

  2. Al the projections are whats most likely but you have to pick guys you think are in a great spot to exceed projections

  3. I agree with Al’s question, i play only gpp too but always seem just under or just over pay line, cant seem to pick the right play that exceeds projection, but whrn i look at winner of gpp they always seem to have my players minus 1 or 2.

  4. I only use these picks for cash, but they typically work out well, right around 5x…
    If you are picking for GPP, then would definitely want more upside and 6x.

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