Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/3/18

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Pitcher

Early

Noah Syndergaard FD 10300 DK 11600
Opponent - PHI (Aaron Nola) Park - NYM
FD - 38.87 DK - 21.73

Welcome to MLB Wednesday! We are looking at two solid slates tonight with the first starting at 1:05 and the second at 7:07. We have six games on this early slate and it's jam-packed full of action. Although we have just six games on the slate, we're working with Corey Kluber, Noah Syndergaard, Luis Severino, Alex Wood, Dallas Keuchel, and Aaron Nola. Those are some pretty incredible names for such a small slate. You can get 7+ strikeouts out of any of those guys if they are on their game, but Noah Syndergaard is our favorite of the bunch. He went six innings in his first start against the Cardinals and struck out 10. He looked better than ever. He now draws a match-up against an extremely weak Philadelphia Phillies lineup. They are projected to put up just 3.20 runs and Vegas opened the K prop at 8 1/2. Syndergaard is going to cost you an arm and a leg, but it could very well be worth it. Let's look at a cheaper option that's plenty safe for the price.

Aaron Nola FD 8700 DK 8500
Opponent - NYM (Noah Syndergaard) Park - NYM
FD - 35.5 DK - 18.88

Aaron Nola only went 5 1/3 innings in his first start and struck out just 3. That's because he faces a Braves team that just doesn't strikeout much. He now draws the Mets, who are an equally atrocious offense to the Phils. When Todd Frazier and Adrian Gonzalez are in the 5 and 6 hole in 2017, you know a lineup is going to struggle. The bottom of the order is just atrocious and even the good hitters (Cespedes, Bruce) strikeout a ton. Nola should grab at least 5 or 6 K's against this team and five or six innings is easy work. His price is fair in the mid-$8k's on both sites and you don't need a huge game. I will do my best to pay up for Noah Syndergaard, but paying down for Nola in a few spots won't kill me.

You have to strongly consider Corey Kluber. It's just preference between him and Syndergaard.

Main

Aaron Sanchez FD 5800 DK 7800
Opponent - CHW (Carson Fulmer) Park - TOR
FD - 32.33 DK - 15.97

We have a ton of good pitching on the early slate, and absolutely none at night. On the high-end, Cueto and Manaea have pretty tough match-ups and are not at all affordable. Carlos Martinez and Felix Hernandez may also be somewhat popular, but neither jump off the page in those match-ups. Instead, we'll pay down for Aaron Sanchez, who is way underpriced on FanDuel and pretty fair on DK. He struggled against the Yankees in his first start, but that's something we can't really hold against a guy at this point. He's been phenomenal over his young career, posting a .255 wOBA against righties and a .316 against lefties. He's not a huge strikeout guy at just over 7 per 9 innings, but he keeps the ball on the ground and works through innings quickly. The White Sox are projected to be one of the 3 worst offenses in the league, so we have to stick with that after just a few games. The price is fair and there isn't much opportunity cost here. He also lets you pay up for some batters that you will definitely want.

Jhoulys Chacin is elite against righties. If the Cardinals play 6+ righties, you have to at least pay attention.

First Base/Catcher

Early

Marwin Gonzalez FD 2800 DK 3800
Opponent - BAL (Dylan Bundy) Park - HOU
FD - 10.76 DK - 8.23

C/1B on this early slate presents a few different options. On the high-end, Paul Goldschmidt and Miguel Cabrera are both facing lefties that they hold the advantage over. Miggy is in the better match-up and can be played throughout cash games and tournaments. However, there’s a cheaper guy in just as good of a spot. Martin Gonzalez was quietly elite in 2017, posting a .397 wOBA on 18 homers against righties. He faces off with Dylan Bundy, who’ll eventually be one of the leagues best pitchers. He’s just not nearly there yet. With a .329 wOBA and home run issues, I have no reservations about targeting him. We know how lethal this Astros lineup is and Gonzalez will come to the plate with an RBI opportunity or a few. He’s cheaper than he should be on both sites and makes sense in all formats.

Strongly consider Gary Sanchez but it's going to be tough paying up for all of the big Yankees' bats.

Main

Justin Smoak FD 3400 DK 4500
Opponent - CHW (Carson Fulmer) Park - TOR
FD - 13.09 DK - 9.79

The Blue Jays are a team we targeted a ton on yesterday's slate. They put up 14 runs and certainly didn't disappoint anyone that stacked them. Smoak ended up with a double, 2 walks, and 22 FanDuel points. Just 2 years ago, this is a guy who would very rarely find the lineup and wasn't impressive when he did. Last year, he was one of the better hitters in his division. He sported a .359 wOBA against righties and ended up with 31 homers against them. He'll now see Carson Fulmer, who's only pitched 40 innings in his career. He's a pretty solid prospect, but a .325 wOBA isn't anything to be scared of and his peripherals suggest even worse. The Rogers Centre is extremely friendly to hitters and Smoak is an elite play in all formats.

Consider Kendrys Morales if he's in the lineup coming cheap

Second Base

Early

Jonathan Schoop FD 2700 DK 3300
Opponent - HOU (Dallas Keuchel) Park - HOU
FD - 8.93 DK - 6.82

Second base is extremely ugly on this slate. You can play Jose Altuve if you want, but he's expensive and not in the greatest match-up around. Whit Merrifield is interesting as well, but he's more expensive than I like for his ceiling. We'll instead look at a very talented hitter in a tough match-up. Keuchel is a very solid pitcher, but a .293 wOBA against righties isn't too scary. A lot less scary when you see the .397 wOBA that Schoop throws out there. He hit 32 home runs last season and is a key cog in this Orioles lineup. This game takes place in Minute Maid Park, where the Crawford boxes lie. Schoop is also way priced down because of the match-up. This is a guy who should stay around $3500 and I'm all over him when he falls below. There isn't much of an opportunity cost, so a down game from Schoop won't kill you. One of his big games will boost you to the top of a tourney.

Consider Neil Walker

Main

Devon Travis FD 2400 DK 3100
Opponent - CHW (Carson Fulmer) Park - TOR
FD - 12.39 DK - 9.57

We're looking at three straight Blue Jays to start the main slate. I don't know if it speaks more to lack of plays at second or how good of a spot the Jays are in. They hold a 5.30 implied team total and could put up an encore of last night. Here we have an extremely cheap Devon Travis that figures to bat leadoff in a team with the highest total. He certainly prefers hitting against lefties, but a .300 wOBA isn't terrible against righties. He will see five or six at-bats and you can only go so wrong at $2400. If you need to go elsewhere, I would still pay down and go Kolten Wong against Chacin. For me, it'll be a whole lot of Devon Travis. I'm willing to bet the Blue Jays put up 5+ runs and he should get himself involved in at least one of them.

Consider Jed Lowrie

Shortstop

Early

Manny Machado FD 3600 DK 4100
Opponent - HOU (Dallas Keuchel) Park - HOU
FD - 10.46 DK - 7.95
Tim Beckham FD 2400 DK 3100
Opponent - HOU (Dallas Keuchel) Park - HOU
FD - 8.8 DK - 6.78

With all of the good pitching on this early slate, it's not all that easy to find hitters in every price range. At shortstop, it's especially. We would be looking at Carlos Correa here, but it's been reported that he will sit today. That leaves us to targeting a very solid pitcher in Dallas Keuchel once again. Machado is solid against both sides of the plate, but held a .341 wOBA against lefties in '17. Tim Beckham has been an extreme reverse split-guy for most of his career, but rather even last season. The park is great for right-handed power and both of these guys are extreme pull hitters. I would be lying if I said I was excited to play either of these guys, but there's no better alternative at the position, so deal with it. If you refuse to play both, Lindor and Iglesias are solid.

Main

Trevor Story FD 2800 DK 3700
Opponent - SD (Clayton Richard) Park - SD
FD - 11.17 DK - 8.41

I remember the good ol' days when Trevor Story took over for Troy Tulowitzki and was the best hitter in baseball for a month. He then stunk for a while and many thought it was all a fluke. Nope. In 2017, his second season, Story demolished lefties with a .420 wOBA and 24 homers on the season. This ballpark doesn't lend itself to many homers, but Story is one of the guys who can put it out anywhere with a fastball and a prayer. His price is very fair on both sites and he's looked good at the plate in each the last two games. The Rockies will face Clayton Richard in Petco Park, who was absolutely terrible against righties in 2017. We'll get to him some more later, but a .377 wOBA against right-handers is enough to at least get the idea. Story has a ton of upside in all formats and I don't mind him in cash games at the price.

Consider Marcus Semien

Third Base

Early

Jose Ramirez FD 3100 DK 4400
Opponent - LAA (Tyler Skaggs) Park - LAA
FD - 10.8 DK - 8.28

Third base is probably the ugliest position on this early slate. There are a few options, but it's still not as plentiful as the other spots today. We'll focus on Jose Ramirez, who's way under-priced on FanDuel. Ramirez and the Indians face-off with Tyler Skaggs in Los Angeles, where they're projected to score just over 4 runs. Skaggs struggled against righties in 2017, allowing a .345 wOBA and 11 homers in just over 60 innings of work. Ramirez, a switch-hitter, prefers hitting from the left side with a .397 wOBA. He's one of the more consistent hitters in all of baseball and you can play him in both cash games and tournaments. On FanDuel, he'll be hard to get away from in any lineup.

Main

Nolan Arenado FD 4300 DK 5000
Opponent - SD (Clayton Richard) Park - SD
FD - 12.45 DK - 9.38

Adrian Beltre FD 2800 DK 3300
Opponent - OAK (Sean Manaea) Park - OAK
FD - 10.54 DK - 8.05

Beltre has always been really good against lefties and 2017 was one of his best seasons. In just over 250 plate appearances, Beltre held a .463 wOBA with a 28% line drive rate and 9% K rate. The Rangers will face Sean Manaea tonight, who struggled immensely in 2017 against hitters from the right side with a .347 wOBA and 16 homers in 120 innings. This ballpark isn't the friendliest for Beltre, but he can hit it out anywhere and Vegas certainly thinks they put a few runs on the board here. Beltre is still one of the best hitters in the league against southpaws and deserves attention in all formats. You get a huge discount from Arenado and this is a slate where you can spend it elsewhere. Personally, Nolan Arenado is a priority, but I get paying down for Adrian Beltre in a positive-split match-up.

Outfield

Early

Giancarlo Stanton FD 4400 DK 5400
Opponent - TB (Blake Snell) Park - NYY
FD - 17.92 DK - 13.24
Aaron Judge FD 4100 DK 5200
Opponent - TB (Blake Snell) Park - TB
FD - 13.11 DK - 9.7

The easiest play on this slate. If we're being honest, I'm not a big fan of Giancarlo Stanton. I'm playing him in every lineup and prioritizing him over even pitcher. He's been pretty quiet since Opening Day, but hit two homers against that lefty. In 2017, Stanton demolished lefties to the tune of a .480 wOBA and 54 (lol) home runs. Snell is also not very good against right-handers, sporting a .320 wOBA and 4.67 xFIP against them last season. Yankee Stadium is not friendly to anyone at this point and the Yanks are projected for just over 5 runs. His price is very high on both sites, but he can pay it off with a swing and make himself a must with two. He's my favorite play on this slate and I plan on having him in 100% of lineups.

Judge didn't hit lefties all that well (relatively speaking) last season, but that likely ends up being sample size issues. He's got major wind at his back today (23mph blowing out to right in Yankee Stadium) and the Yankees have one of the highest implied run totals on the early slate.

Consider Nick Castellanos, Josh Reddick, Adam Jones, Rajai Davis, and Chris Taylor

Main

Curtis Granderson FD 2100 DK 3200
Opponent - CHW (Carson Fulmer) Park - TOR
FD - 0.14 DK - 0.11
Randal Grichuk FD 2400 DK 3500
Opponent - CHW (Carson Fulmer) Park - TOR
FD - 11.54 DK - 8.71

The Blue Jays were a team we were all over yesterday and they went berserk with 14 runs against Miguel Gonzalez and bullpen. We've already looked at a few of them for tonight, but let's close it off in the outfield. Starting off with Curtis Granderson, he held a very solid .343 wOBA against righties in 2017. He will see a much better ballpark this season and I expect that number to go up. In the leadoff spot, he will see a ton of at-bats and the power upside is immense for the price. He's viable in all formats. As for Grichuk, he was a lot better against righties in 2017 and posted a .327 wOBA. The Jays are expected to put up over 5 runs and both of these guys should get involved.

Dexter Fowler FD 2200 DK 3300
Opponent - MIL (Jhoulys Chacin) Park - MIL
FD - 11.58 DK - 8.77

We haven't looked at the Cardinals just yet, but every single lefty in the order should be paid attention to. Jhoulys Chacin is a very good pitcher against righties and atrocious against lefties. In 84 innings last season, he held a .338 wOBA and 5.55 xFIP against Lefties. Just make sure you play the lefties and don't touch any of the righties, as a 2.66 wOBA isn't something to target. The Cards have a lot of righties in the order, but Fowler starts it off from the left side. Fowler posted a .368 wOBA against righties in '17 and won't get any worse as he settles in with the Cardinals. Good luck tonight and feel free to comment below if you have any questions!

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