Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/5/18
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Verlander has seen some regression lately allowing 16 hits and nine earned runs over his last two starts but with Johnny Cueto returning from the DL and Tyler Skaggs being placed on the DL, he is the clear #1 option tonight. He is also in a great spot as the Astros open as monstrous -270 favorites against the White Sox who rank 24th in runs scored(341) overall while also ranking 22nd in wOBA(.308) and 17th in wRC+(95) vs. right-handed pitching with a 24.9% K rate. Despite the struggles lately, Verlander still sits with an impressive 2.12 ERA, 3.56 xFIP and elite 10.92 K/9 and 12.7% swinging strike rate. Fire up Verlander in all formats.
The pickings are pretty slim on this eight-game slate but to fit Verlander in on DraftKings we are going to need some value. Enter Marco Gonzales who is coming off his best start of the season as he went the distance against the Royals allowing just one earned run while striking out seven and walking none. It was the sixth time in his last nine starts he has allowed two or fewer earned runs in a start and while there has been some bad games, he sits with an above average 3.77 ERA and even better 3.45 xFIP. The matchup looks scary at first glance as the Angels sit just outside the Top 10 in runs scored this season but they have struggled lately ranking 27th in wOBA(.275) and wRC+(75) over the last 14 days. Considering the price, I think he makes an excellent SP2 on DraftKings and a value GPP play on FanDuel allowing you to stack the bats.
Also consider Max Fried(ATL) who has been terrific in his first two starts holding opponents to one earned run with 17 strikeouts in 11.2 innings
My top bat overall is Paul Goldschmidt who has everything going his way tonight. After a terrible month of May, Goldy has come on strong with a crazy .390/.482/.780 slash line with 12 home runs, 29 RBI and 27 runs scored. He also gets to hit at home in Chase Field in, by, far, his best split as he has demolished lefties to the tune of a .452 wOBA, 187 wRC+, and .373 ISO. The lefty he is facing is Eric Lauer who has flashed some upside at times but has struggled overall with a 5.08 ERA, 4.55 xFIP, and a 14.1% HR/FB rate and 40.6% hard contact.
If you are looking to go a little more balanced or planning to stack Astros, don't overlook Gurriel tonight. Going into Wednesday night, he had been struggling with just one hit in his 17 at-bats but overall has been solid this season with a .293 average while only striking out just over 10% of the time. What stands out the most is the matchup vs. Carlos Rodon who has not been good in his return to the big leagues as he is striking out under seven per nine and sits with a 4.55 ERA, 5.55 xFIP and has already given up six home runs in five starts(12.2% HR/FB rate). All things considered, Gurriel is a great play in all formats, especially on FanDuel in the sub $3K range.
Catcher Consideration: John Ryan Murphy(ARI) who has strong splits vs. left-handed pitching(.383 woBA, 141 wRC+)
The price has remained steady on FanDuel in the mid $3K range but on DraftKings he is a buy-low candidate as his price has reached it's lowest point in two weeks. He hasn't been as consistent as he was last year with a low .301 on-base percentage but sits with a decent .280 average and has already scored 38 runs and he also adds a ton of speed with the second-most stolen bases(22) in the league. The Mariners are slight favorites and sit with the sixth highest implied runs and for them to meet or exceed that total, Dee Gordon will liekly play a role at the top of the order.
On DraftKings, I much prefer Dee Gordon at the same price but on FanDuel I will take the sizable discount and roll with Keyel Marte tonight. He has been less than impressive overall with a .244 average and .296 on-base percentage which is the main reason he hits down in the order but he stands out when looking at the splits tonight. He is a switch hitter who has been way more productive against left-handed pitching with a .298 average, .368 wOBA, and 131 wRC+ on the season and faces as struggling southpaw who sits with a 5.08 ERA on the season and has given up a .387 wOBA to right-handed bats.
Also consider Alen Hanson(SF) if he gets another opportunity at the top of the order
On FanDuel, Profar is listed at second base but on DraftKings he is a shortstop and comes at nice $500 discount from Eddie Rosario which helps us get Verlander and some top bats in our lineup. He is a switch hitter who has stronger splits vs. lefties with a .363 wOBA, 128 wRC+ and comes in with hits in five of his last six games. Andrus is in the exact same price range on both sites and has also been consistent lately with hits in seven straight games. They both get a plus matchup against Matt Boyd who has struggled lately giving up 14 earned runs in his last three starts. Both players are in play in all formats and make a great start to a Rangers stack.
Also consider Trea Turner(WSH) if you are spending up at the position. He comes in with hits in six of his last seven games including five multi-hit efforts.
The Twins have been frustrating at time but on paper, this is a prime matchup for their left-handed bats. They have two regular players who have a .390+ wOBA, 150+ wRC+ and .280+ ISO against righties and Escobar is one of them. He has struggled lately with just two hits in his last 31 at-bats but that has helped his price plummet on both sites which means we get to buy low here. As of Wednesday night, there are conflicting reports on multiple sites who is starting for the Orioles but whether it's Andrew Cashner(4.48 ERA, 4.73 xFIP, 14.1% HR/FB rate) or David Hess(5.94 ERA, 6.03 xFIP, 13% HR/FB rate) I am game to play the Twins in all formats tonight.
Provided he is back in the leadoff spot on Thursday, Tim Beckham is one of the top PTS/$ values on the slate. He spent just over two months on the disabled list with a groin injury and since his return at the end of June he has been a consistent fantasy option with hits in seven of his eight games with three multi-hit efforts. Tonight, Beckham and the Orioles get a plus matchup against Aaron Slegers wh is making his first start of the season. Through 14 starts at AAA, he didn't really stand out striking out under six per nine with a 3.55 ERA and 4.27 xFIP.
Also consider Matt Carpenter(STL) who has posted an impressive .300/.398/.600 slash line since the start of June
I talked about two hitters who crush right-handed pitching for the Twins and Rosario is the other and leads the team with a .416 wOBA, 167 wRC+, and .993 OPS. Unlike Escobar who has struggled lately, Rosario comes in with hits in six straight games and sits with an impressive .312/.354/.562 slash line on the season with 18 home runs, 52 RBI, and 57 runs scored. Like I mentioned with Escobar, I don't care whether it's Cashner or Hess starting for the O's I will have exposure to these two Twins bats in all formats.
It's been a slow road back for Myers who missed nearly two months with multiple injuries but has shown signs that he is getting back to his consistent self lately. He enters tonight with hits in five of his last seven games while averaging 13 FanDuel/9.7 DraftKings points per game. He has also been much stronger against right-handed pitching this season with a .321 average, .367 wOBA, and 135 wRC+. More good news as he will face a struggling Shelby Miller who has allowed 11 earned runs in his first two starts of the season while giving up three long balls.
There are some weather concerns in Detroit tonight but if this game plays and Rua gets the start, he makes an excellent punt play to help get Verlander into your lineups. Overall, it has been a disappointing season to this point as he is hitting just .186 but is always an option vs. a lefty as he has been better in that split with a .350 wOBA, 119 wRC+, and .279 ISO. Stay tuned for lineups Thursday afternoon.
Also Consider: Logan Morrison(MIN), George Springer(HOU)
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- Paul Goldschmidt: AP Photo/Matt York