Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/17/18

Let's get rolling on a full Friday of baseball action for DraftKings and FanDuel. We've got Scherzer, Carrasco and some offenses coming cheap against weaker arms.

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Pitcher

Max Scherzer FD 12000 DK 12600
Opponent - MIA (Dan Straily) Park - WSH
FD - 52.39 DK - 29.29
What is there to write about the guy that isn’t already in existence somewhere on the internet? He’s the 4th-best pitcher in WAR (5.9 - best in the NL), strikes out batters at a better than 12 K’s per nine clip, and is actually walking batters at a career-low rate. He’s among the tippy-top (pro term) tier of arms in the league and short of a terrible matchup is in the discussion for cash games. Luckily, there are no matchup concerns in this one, facing off against the Marlins who rank 28th against righties in wOBA this season. Max is a crazy -375 opening home favorite, one of the highest lines of the entire season for any team. So the win expectation is through the roof. Even at these upper tier prices, there isn’t much of a reason to get away from him in cash.

Carlos Carrasco FD 10700 DK 11200
Opponent - BAL (David Hess) Park - CLE
FD - 42.76 DK - 23.35
This dude is just straight up good. He’s on his third season out of four striking out more than ten batters per nine. And this year has even been able to cut down on the walks as well (6.2% to 4.9%). It’s helping him average more than six innings per start. The 3.11 xFIP is good for top ten in the league among qualified starters. He’s an interesting pivot from Scherzer on Friday considering Carrasco also has a nut-so money line: -360 at home against the Orioles. Baltimore isn’t as bad as the Marlins, but they are close. They strike out 24% of the time against righties this season and rank in the bottom-third of the league in that split. Scherzer has more K upside for sure, but Carrasco is coming 12-14% cheaper depending on the site. You can talk yourself into the extra dollars for bats by pivoting down the Carrasco and you’d still be in a great spot.

Robbie Ray FD 8700 DK 7600
Opponent - SD (Joey Lucchesi) Park - SD
FD - 36.13 DK - 19.83
This is a close call here between Ray and Kyle Gibson. I’m giving the slight edge to Ray, but it’s closer for me than I would have thought. Rostering Ray is walking a high wire act each time out. The dude has elite K stuff (31%) but also walks just about everyone else (12%). 43% of opposing batters don’t put the ball in play against Ray, which should sound amazing until you consider the amount of free passes. It also means he runs long counts and struggles to go far in games, averaging just a shade over five innings per start this season. The Padres aren’t good, but to their credit are better against lefties on the season. They still strike out 24% of the time in that split and rank 20th in team wOBA. The park helps Ray quite a bit as well, with Petco suppressing power all around. Ray makes for a DK SP2 play because of the strikeouts and matchup, but it could be nailbiting to watch.

Strongly consider Kyle Gibson against the Tigers. The strikeouts have pretty much maintained this season and Detroit is the worst offense in the league against righty pitching.

First Base/Catcher

Brandon Belt FD 2700 DK 4200
Opponent - CIN (Anthony DeSclafani) Park - CIN
FD - 10.78 DK - 8.08
Belt returned from the DL on Tuesday and hit second in the order on Wednesday. If that batting lineup placement sticks then, at least on FanDuel, we are looking at one of the best value plays on the slate. The Giants get a massive park upgrade getting to play in Great American, one of the best power parks in the league. They’ll face Anthony DeSclafani, a serviceable if underwhelming arm who strikes out less than eight batters per nine. Over the last two seasons, Belt has been one of the better hitters in the league against righty pitching with a .908 OPS thanks to an elite 15% walk rate and also sports a .382 wOBA in that split. Not bad for a dude who plays a majority of his games in pitchers’ parks.

Lucas Duda FD 2700 DK 3800
Opponent - CHW (James Shields) Park - CHW
FD - 10.55 DK - 7.85
The last couple of James Shields Days might have disappointed, but that doesn’t mean we need to start ignoring the guy or anything. This is still a dude with a season 5.01 xFIP who strikes batters out at only 18% and has a 2:1 K:BB rate. He stinks. Now, so do the Royals, but Duda should hit cleanup on Friday and comes cheap across the board. The OPS is down this season for the Royals’ DH, thanks to a dip in walk rate and a precipitous drop in power. The former is less of a concern against an arm like Shields and the latter is thanks in part to running bad on Hr/FB even though the hard contact rate is in line with previous seasons. I’m still interested in playing bats against Shields even if the team is a bad one. The Royals aren’t good, but Duda rates out close to a cash game play.

Strongly consider Matt Adams if he’s anywhere near the middle of the lineup against Straily.

At catcher on DraftKings, Yan Gomes looks moderately interesting against David Hess. I also don’t mind Austin Barnes even if he’s in the bottom of the lineup against the lefty LeBlanc.

 

Second Base

Logan Forsythe FD 2500 DK 3400
Opponent - DET (Matthew Boyd) Park - MIN
FD - 9.62 DK - 7.29
The Twins moved him to second in the order against the lefty Francisco Liriano on Thursday and the dude delivered. At the time of this writing he was already 3-3 with two runs and two RBIs. He’ll get another crack at the production on Friday against Matt Boyd who owns a 4.68 xFIP. It hasn’t been the case this season, but Forsythe is significantly better against lefty pitching for his career with a 120 wRC+ and 792 OPS in that split. The real win though is getting him moved up the Twins’ batting order and the increased plate appearance expectation that comes along with it. He’s still coming so cheap on both sites and makes for an especially good play on Friday because of how much you will need to spend on pitching in cash games.

David Fletcher FD 2600 DK 3300
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - TEX
FD - 9.9 DK - 7.58
He’s another guy coming cheap who should be in the two hole of the Angels’ lineup. Now understand, he isn’t all that great of a hitter with an OPS under .700 but you are getting a top of the order bat at a thinner position who is coming close to punt prices on both sites. The Angels get a big park upgrade here with the series in Globe Life, one of the best power parks in all of baseball. Fletcher isn’t necessarily a threat to go long here, but the Angels as a whole should see increased plate appearances in what could be a higher-scoring game. He’s especially cheap on DraftKings where he has multi-position eligibility (2B/3B).

Strongly consider D.J. LeMahieu against the lefty Sean Newcomb.

Shortstop

Trea Turner FD 3700 DK 4800
Opponent - MIA (Dan Straily) Park - WSH
FD - 13.75 DK - 10.72
The Nationals have moved their lineup around quite a bit this season, but I think we have basically settled into Turner hitting second when a righty is on the mound. Dan Straily is just the kind of righty we want to target on Friday. He owns a 4.96 xFIP and gross 1.7:1 K:BB ratio on the season. He’s getting crushed on the hard contact rate (44%) and is the reason the Nationals come in right around 5.3 implied runs. Turner has actually been better against righties over the last couple of seasons with a .782 OPS and .336 wOBA in that split. He’s still got monster fantasy upside, stealing tons of bags (32 on the season) and chipping in some power (14 home runs). He’s a little expensive, but the Nationals are in such a great spot.

Andrelton Simmons FD 2800 DK 4100
Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - TEX
FD - 10.66 DK - 8.3
With Trout still out of the lineup and the Angels not having a ton of other bats, Simmons should be in the fifth spot against the lefty on Friday. For a shortstop, he’s respectable against southpaws over the last two season with a modest .749 OPS and 109 wRC+ in that split over 298 plate appearances. He actually walks more than he strikes out (11% to 9%) so you can be fairly confident we’re looking at getting on base or at least making contact. He doesn’t have a ton of power, but will at least go yard from time to time. This is one of the best parks to make it happen and I do like the matchup against Mike Minor.

Strongly consider paying up for Francisco Lindor against David Hess

 

Third Base

Miguel Sano FD 2800 DK 4200
Opponent - DET (Matthew Boyd) Park - MIN
FD - 12.06 DK - 8.97
Is he finally starting to turn this nightmare of a season around? It’s too soon to tell, but Sano does have three home runs in his last seven games (one last night) and even miraculously went a couple games without striking out. I’ll take it! Over the last two seasons, this is a guy with a mid-.800’s OPS against lefties and solid 12% walk rate. Matthew Boyd is a well below average arm and the Twins are once again coming in at a solid implied run line (4.8). Look, I get that Sano has been just about as bad as you can be at times this season. But there are some positive signs of last and he’s still coming very cheap as a middle of the order bat with a lot of power.

Jose Ramirez FD 5000 DK 6000
Opponent - BAL (David Hess) Park - CLE
FD - 16.56 DK - 12.52
I’ve focused on mostly mid-tier and lower bats because I do think, for cash games, paying up pitching is the way to go. So spending on top-flight bats just won’t be in the cards if you are trying to make anything like a balanced lineup. But man, it’s tough to fade the Indians in this matchup. They take on David Hess who’s been just brutal this season. He has a 6.09 xFIP in 59 innings with a paltry 14% K rate and a 9% walk rate. He’s among the worst pitchers in the league allowed to pitch this many innings and Jose Ramirez has been as good as you can be this season. He’s a short-list MVP candidate, walking more than he strikes out (15% to 10%, which is nuts) and is creeping to the 40/30 club (36 home runs, 27 stolen bases). The numbers are just sick and he’s in such a plus spot for Friday. But it will cost you.

Consider Yolmer Sanchez if he’s at the top of the order against Junis

 

Outfield

Shin-Soo Choo FD 3300 DK 5100
Opponent - LAA (Odrisamer Despaigne) Park - TEX
FD - 13.31 DK - 10.02
Nomar Mazara FD 2500 DK 4100
Opponent - LAA (Odrisamer Despaigne) Park - TEX
FD - 11.93 DK - 9.08
Joey Gallo FD 3000 DK 4900
Opponent - LAA (Odrisamer Despaigne) Park - TEX
FD - 12.18 DK - 8.94
The Rangers’ outfield is in a fantastic stacking spot on Friday against Odrisamer Despaigne. The Angels’ righty has brutal 2:1 K:BB peripherals despite spending most of his time pitching out of the bullpen. The Rangers will bring a lot of lefties to the table and all of them are coming on the cheaper side on FanDuel. Despaigne has really struggled in that split this season with a 4.94 xFIP and .334 wOBA allowed. Choo could really give him issues at the top of the lineup with the former sporting a 13% walk rate and .845 OPS in that split over the last couple of seasons.

Meanwhile, Mazara returned from the DL on Thursday and hit in the middle of the lineup. He’s coming cheaper on both sides, but especially on FanDuel where the pricing algorithm dips injured guys all the way down to punt prices. He’s a solid power bat (15 home runs on the season) who really gets a boost because of the park and matchup.

And finally, Joey Gallo isn’t to quite the OPS level of last season thanks to a slight dip in power. But this is a guy who struggles the most with crazy K rates. That’s less of an issue against a pitcher like Despaigne who’s posted a career 5.44 K/9 rate. Gallo is, of course, a boom or bust guy, but the power is as good as anyone in baseball.

Adam Eaton FD 2700 DK 4200
Opponent - MIA (Dan Straily) Park - WSH
FD - 12.62 DK - 9.75
Eaton is a guy coming way too cheap on FanDuel if he’s hitting at the top of the order against Straily. We already mentioned the latter’s struggles this season and Eaton is a favorite (relatively speaking) to get base here. He takes walks 10% of the time against righties and is very tough to strikeout (16%). Eaton doesn’t have a ton of power or speed, so his value is primarily wrapped up in getting on base (which he does well, .371 OPS) and letting his teammates drive him in. That becomes a lot easier when you have guys like Turner, Soto and Bryce Harper hitting behind you in the order.

Strongly consider Nick Delmonico if he remains in the White Sox leadoff role.

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