Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – Safeway Open

Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.

 

Safeway Open

The short PGA Tour offseason is over and it's to reset the FedEx Cup points, introduce some new names coming from the Web.com Tour, and start grinding another DFS golf season. To kick things off, the players will head to Napa, California for the Safeway Open at Silverado Resort and Spa(North Course). Like most of these fall events, the field is definitely on the weaker side as only two of the Top 25(Mickelson-24 & Cantlay-22) and 22 of the Top 100 players in the World are teeing it up this week. This means some inflated prices for some players who you would use to be a lot cheaper towards the end of the season. The key to these events is finding the right players in the mid to low tiers who are either rookies coming from the Web.com Tour or just young players in general who are coming in with some form and fit the course.

Looking at the course, Silverado has narrow, tree-lined fairways which put emphasis on Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and those who are more accurate should have an advantage in hitting more greens. With the field averaging around 50%-55% fairways hit and around 65% greens in regulation hit over the last four years(via Future of Fantasy Golfanac), I will also be looking closely at Good Drive % this week. Ball Striking form is what I am looking at the most coming into this week and the Approach side of that is what I concentrate on a little more than off the tee when weighing them in my model. Finally, I always have Par 5 Scoring ahead of Par 4 scoring on Par 72 courses, especially here as abotu 40% of all birdies made come from those four holes. With all that said, let's take a look at the course breakdown below and then get into the picks.

The Course

Silverado Resort and Spa(North Course) - Napa, CA
Par 72 - 7,203 Yards
Greens - Poa Annua

**Click the pic above to link to a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**

Hole Distribution

Approach Shot Distribution

Previous Four Winners at Silverado

• 2017 - Brendan Steele(-15)
• 2016 - Brendan Steele(-18)
• 2015 - Emiliano Grillo(-15)
• 2014 - Sang-Moon Bae(-1)

Top Stats in the Model

• Strokes Gained: Approach(40%)
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee + Accuracy(25%)
• Birdie or Better %(20%)
• Par 5 Scoring(10%)
• Par 4 Scoring(5%)
• Strokes Gained: Putting on Poa Annua(if using Fantasy National or Future of Fantasy Tools)

One little note before jumping into the article. I use multiple sources for my research to help determine key stats starting with Fantasy National Golf Club and their elite set of tools from course history, hole composition, past performance and much, much more. I also combine it with some of the information on Future of Fantasy including correlated courses and most importantly the quotes from players section to help determine what it takes to win here(key stats). When breaking down ownership and trying to come up with popularity, I love the tools over at FanShareSports as they break down every piece of information on articles and social media mentions to provide us with Tag Counts, Sentiment Ratings, Subject Tags, Salary Differential week to week and much more.

 

Top Tier Targets

Patrick Cantlay
World Golf Ranking (#22)
Vegas Odds (12/1)
Draftkings ($11,600)
FanDuel ($11,900)

The betting favorite at this event is likely motivated after being snubbed for the Captain's pick for the Ryder Cup, especially after Bryson DeChambeau and Phil Mickelson went for a combined 0-5 record. He had a terrific season overall where he missed just two cuts in 21 stroke play events including a win at the Shriners Open, six total Top10's and 14 Top 25 finishes. He finished the season as an elite ball-striker ranking 10th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 16th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 9th in overall Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. I don't think we need to pay all the way up in cash games but he will most definitely be one of my core players in GPP formats.

Adam Hadwin
World Golf Ranking (#58)
Vegas Odds (33/1)
Draftkings ($9,400)
FanDuel ($10,500)

It was a somewhat disappointing season overall for Hadwin who finished with just three Top 10's but the good news is he made 22 cuts in 24 stroke-play events. While he didn't make the Tour Championship, he did finish the season strong with a T11, T21, and T19 in the other three playoff events. Looking at my sheet, he ranks 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 21st in Driving Accuracy, 11th in Par 4 Scoring. The only concern for me for GPP upside is that he ranks 77th in Par 5 Scoring and 56th in Birdie or Better %. Most of my exposure with Hadwin this week will come in the form of cash games but I will get him in a few GPP'sas I feel he will be lower owned than others in the top tier.

Mid Tier Targets

Harold Varner III
World Golf Ranking (#167)
Vegas Odds (50/1)
Draftkings ($8,300)
FanDuel ($9,400)

I wouldn't exactly call Varner a safe play for cash games as he is coming off a season where he missed eight cuts in 26 stroke-play events but he definitely has fantasy upside. He finished the season making six straight cuts including two Top 10's at the Greenbrier and John Deere Classic and over his final five events, ranks #1 in average DraftKings scoring(88.8). Breaking it down further, I checked out the last 24 rounds data(via FNGC) and Varner ranks #1 in this field in SG: Total, 13th in SG: Ball Striking, 7th in SG: APP, 14th in SG: Par 4, and 13th in Par 5 scoring. He has made the cut here in three straight years with T15 his best finish in 2016 and I think he has Top 10 upside this season.

Chez Reavie
World Golf Ranking (#62)
Vegas Odds (50/1)
Draftkings ($7,600)
FanDuel ($9,500)

Reavie checks almost every box to start the season at the Safeway Open and is #5 in my overall rankings this week. After a summer stretch in 2018 where he missed five straight cuts, he finished the season strong making three of four cuts with two Top 20's. Great timing going into the fall where he has been very good over the last couple of years including three straight finishes of 22nd or better at the Safeway/Fry's Open here at the Silverado Resort & Spa North Course. Overall on my sheet, he ranks 15th in SG: Ball Striking(35th OTT, 7th APP), 1st in Driving Accuracy, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, and 6th in Bogey Avoidance. At these prices, I will be using Reavie in all formats.

Who the Stats Like

Sam Ryder
World Golf Ranking (#192)
Vegas Odds (80/1)
Draftkings ($7,400)
FanDuel ($8,700)

It was an up and down rookie season for Sam Ryder as he missed 10 cuts in 25 stroke-play events but the good news is that he finished strong with five made cuts including a runner-up at the John Deere Classic, T7 at the Barbasol, and a T28 at the playoff-opening Northern Trust. Looking at the last 24 rounds data on Fantasy National, Ryder ranks 19th in this field in SG: Total, 8th in SG: Ball Striking. 7th in SG: APP, and 1st in DK scoring. If you are going stars and scrubs in cash and trying to fit Cantlay, Ryder is one of the players I would target. If not, he is a nice upside value play in GPP formats.

Johnson Wagner
World Golf Ranking (#400)
Vegas Odds (125/1)
Draftkings ($7,100)
FanDuel ($8,900)

This is definitely not a consensus pick as Wagner has yet to receive a tag on FanShareSports(until now). He is far too expensive on FanDuel(29th in salary) and even a little overpriced on DraftKings(49th) and while he has zero upside he is a player that can make a can make a cut and help us pay up with a couple high priced players. He didn't the playoffs last season but did finish with six straight made cuts and only missed two in his last 14 events. He missed the cut here last year but made the cut in two straight before that with a T3 in 2016. All we need this week is another made cut in cash games.

Tournament Update Thread

**Weather Update**

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.