Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – The CJ Cup @ Nine Bridges

Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.

 

The CJ Cup @ Nine Bridges

This week the PGA Tour travels to JeJu Island in Korea for the CJ Cup @ Nine Bridges, the second tournament of the three-event Asian swing. This event was added to the schedule last season so course history is at a minimum, especially considering the windy conditions during that event. The field is very strong once again this year with two of the World's Top 5 golfers teeing it up including Player of the Year Brooks Koepka and defending champion at this event, Justin Thomas. Joining them are 22 other players who rank inside the Top 50 in Official World Golf Rankings most notably Jason Day, Hideki Matsuyama, and last weeks winner Marc Leishman. Like last week, the event is a short field of 78 players and will once again have no cut.

The course is listed on the scorecard as just shy of 7,200 yards and is a Par 72 setup with the standard four Par 3's, four Par 5's, and 10 Par 4 holes. Despite the windy conditions a year ago, the fairways were hit at 72.5% clip which goes to show the level of difficulty off the tee. If the wind is down this year like it shows in the forecast that number is likely going to exceed 75%. For me, this takes some emphasis off Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and adds a ton of emphasis on Strokes Gained: Approach which will be my top stat this week. Looking at some quotes from players last year(via Future of Fantasy Golfanac), the greens are big and can be tricky with undulation meaning Proximity is a place I will concentrate on heavily as well. Looking at the 10 Par 4 holes, eight of them are under 450 yards and produced 43% of all birdies on the week. When looking at Par 4 scoring on the Fantasy National Golf Club tools, those are the distances I will be concentrating on. Looking at predicting scoring, with the winds projected to be 5-10 mph calmer this time around we could likely see a winning score between -15 and -20 so Birdie or Better %also come into play with its correlation to fantasy scoring.

Player Quotes

The Course

Nine Bridges - Jeju Island, KOR
Par 72 - 7,196 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass

**Click the pic above to link to a hole by hole breakdown on PGATour.com**

Top Stats in the Model

• Strokes Gained: Approach w/ Emphasis on Proximity
• Birdie or Better %
• Par 4 Scoring from 400-450 Yards
• Three Putt Avoidance

One little note before jumping into the article. I use multiple sources for my research to help determine key stats starting with Fantasy National Golf Club and their elite set of tools from course history, hole composition, past performance and much, much more. I also combine it with some of the information on Future of Fantasy including correlated courses and most importantly the quotes from players section to help determine what it takes to win here(key stats). When breaking down ownership and trying to come up with popularity, I love the tools over at FanShareSports as they break down every piece of information on articles and social media mentions to provide us with Tag Counts, Sentiment Ratings, Subject Tags, Salary Differential week to week and much more.

Top Tier Targets

Marc Leishman
World Golf Ranking (#16)
Vegas Odds (14/1)
Draftkings ($10,200)
FanDuel ($11,700)

It feels a bit like chasing the points but Leishman checks almost every box this week. He is coming off a huge win at the CIMB Classic last week where he led the field in birdies with 28 and with a score of -26 ended up winning by five strokes. He now returns to the CJ Cup @ Nine Bridges where he went to a playoff but eventually finished runner-up to Justin Thomas. Looking at the stats, his SG: Approach numbers don't jump off the page but it is positive to see him hit just over 73% greens in regulation last week and looking at the sheet he ranks 3rd in Birdie or Better % in this field. He comes at a discount from the top guys and is a great place to start your lineup construction if you are wanting to go a bit more balanced this week.

Gary Woodland
World Golf Ranking (#38)
Vegas Odds (35/1)
Draftkings ($9,100)
FanDuel ($11,000)

Woodland stands out in a big way when looking at form as he finished the 2017-18 season strong making 11 straight cuts with six Top 25 finishes including a T11 at the Tour Championship. That form has carried over to this season as he was in contention all week at the CIMB Classic but with after making bogey's on three of his final seven holes ended up with a T5. He did rank inside the Top 10 in birdies(24) which is great news as this will be another no-cut event where upside is needed and he also hit just under 80% Greens in Regulation as well. On my sheet, he ranks 2nd in SG: Ball Striking, 8th in three-putt avoidance, 21st in Proximity, 3rd in Par 5 Scoring, and 13th in overall Birdie or Better %. He finished T40 here last year but at his price at the bottom of the top tier he is in play for me in all formats with his top form and birdie potential.

Mid Tier Targets

Byeong Hun An
World Golf Ranking (#48)
Vegas Odds (40/1)
Draftkings ($8,700)
FanDuel ($9,700)

Byeong Hu An is another player who was consistent last year making 19 of 23 cuts in stroke-play events with four Top 10's and two runner-up finishes(RBC Canadian Open, The Memorial).  He started this season off on the right foot as well shooting all four rounds under par at the CIMB Classic and after making 22 birdies on the week finished with a T13. He now comes back to the CJ Cup where he finished T11 in the inaugural event in some tough scoring conditions. Looking at the stats model, he ranks 10th in SG: Approach, 26th or better in Proximity from 125-200+ yards, 2nd in SG: Ball Striking, and 13th in SG: Around the Green. Looking at some more current stats form(via FNGC), he ranks 5th in SG: Tee to Green and 5th in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds overall. He is in play in all formats.

Rafa Cabrera Bello
World Golf Ranking (#28)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
Draftkings ($7,900)
FanDuel ($10,800)

This pick is more of a pivot on DraftKings off the likely chalk in Sungjae Im who leads all golfers in tags on FanShare at the moment.  It makes sense as he is playing on the course he grew up on and played well to start the season with a T4 at the Safeway Open. Bello also burned some people last(including me) with his T50 but the good news is that he closed string with a final round 66 and now returns to Nine Bridges where he finished T11 last year. Like I mentioned last week, he was one of the most consistent golfers on Tour last season making 18 of 19 cuts with five Top 10's and looking at the sheet he ranks 8th in SG: Approach, 12th in three-putt avoidance, 7th in Proximity, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, and 15th in Birdie or Better %. On FanDuel, I will still go with Im who is very cheap in the mid $10K range but Bello makes for a nice pivot on DraftKings in the same price range.

Value Targets

Austin Cook
World Golf Ranking (#104)
Vegas Odds (100/1)
Draftkings ($7,400)
FanDuel ($8,400)

Cook is coming off a tremendous rookie season where he made 24 of 29 cuts(83%) including three Top 10's and his first career win at the RSM Classic. I have a strong feeling we are in for even more upside this season and he has already shown it with a T13 last week where he tallied 22 birdies and hit over 80% greens in regulation. Not a whole lots stands out statistically from last season but he ranks inside the Top 20 in Par 4 Scoring in this field and 14th in Bridie or Better %. At his price in this limited field event, he is most definitely in play in all formats.

Jamie Lovemark
World Golf Ranking (#134)
Vegas Odds (110/1)
Draftkings ($6,800)
FanDuel ($8,500)

One of the biggest debates in all of daily fantasy sports is course history or current form. I personally think we can use both when breaking down players on a weekly basis. Lovemark will likely be a bit overlooked this week due to his poor start to the season with a missed cut at the Safeway Open and T39 last week at the CIMB Classic. The good news is that he returns to Nine Bridges where he finished T5 last year and more good news as he didn't really enter that tournament with great form either with a T43 and T32. I won't be going this direction in cash games but Lovemark is a nice salary relief option if you are looking to load up with two of the top players this week in GPP formats.

Tournament Update Thread

**Weather Update**

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for six years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.