Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 10/30/18
Monday's NBA action started off so promising and then we have Kawhi, Giannis and Brow all ruled out prior to lock. It left plenty of DFS value on the table, but it's always a shame to see that many superstars miss a night of action. Tuesday already leaves with without James Harden, but there are other guys to pick up the superstar slack. Let's take a look at some value plays for FanDuel and DraftKings.
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Kyrie Irving FD - $7500 DK - $7000
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 40.5 DK - 41.8
I know, I know, you don’t want to see this guy’s name in the cash game picks. But I do think there’s a lot to like about Kyrie, especially at the DraftKings’ price. He’s shooting a dreadful 24% (career 39%) from three on the season and 39% (career 46%) from the field. He got buzzed off his minutes in a blowout over these very same Pistons late last week, but it only served to keep the price in check. And again, the operative term here is *price*. Even if you think there's less opportunity for Irving this season because the Celtics are fully healthy, this is still too low of a number for one of the best pure scorers in the game. He's tied for the team lead in shot attempts per game with Tatum (14.5) and is first in assists. When the deep ball starts dropping he'll easily hit value on these salaries.
Trae Young FD - $7100 DK - $7200
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 34.9 DK - 37.18
After starting his rookie campaign by shooting 10-23 from three in his first two games, Young’s taken a step back over his last three, going 2-15 from downtown. It’s helped contribute to a major drop-off in scoring in the short-term. But I think we are fine buying him in this matchup. The Cavs are horrible, the worst team in the league and Young lit them up for 35 points and 11 assists a little over a week ago. This is a bounce back opportunity for the rookie against a porous defense that just fired their head coach.
Chris Paul FD - $9600 DK - $9300
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 44.71 DK - 45.73
Is it too early to say the Rockets’ season is going off the rails? They are 1-4 to start and James Harden is out with an injury. Seasons are long and this team is still very talented, but man it just couldn’t be going worse for Houston right now. That being said, we still have an opportunity for some value on this slate. With Harden off the court, Paul does get significant usage and assists bumps across the board. He didn’t get it done in a blowout at the hands of the Clippers, going 3-13 from the field. He’ll get a better matchup against Damian Lillard on Tuesday and I see a bounce-back game coming for CP3. The DraftKings’ price is a little more appealing than what FanDuel has to offer and I think the recent performance will have people off this play.
Eric Gordon FD - $6400 DK - $6100
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 31.82 DK - 34.01
Gordon, like Paul, stands to see significant usage and minutes’ bumps with Harden off the court. And in the short term that’s played out. The problem is that he’s been some kind of horrific in the shooting department. Over his last two games, he’s 8-35 from the field and 2-18 from three. Woof. This guy is too good of a shooter and scorer for that kind of brick-fest to continue and we could see something of a turnaround tonight. He’ll remain in the starting lineup with Harden off the court and pushing towards 40 minutes in a close game isn’t out of the question. He’s still very much a cash game play and I wouldn’t let the last couple of games dissuade you all that much from his upside.
Buddy Hield FD - $6600 DK - $5500
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 33.04 DK - 34.28
Don’t look now, but the Kings are 4-3 on the season after a ten-point win over the Miami Heat on the road last night. They’ve finally concentrated their minutes around the starters and Buddy Hield’s been one of the beneficiaries of that stability. He’s played 35 or more minutes in each of the last three games, averaging 23 points, seven rebounds and three assists in that stretch. The three-point shooting is a little run-hot (49% on the season) but the playing time appears secure (famous last words for the Kings and all). This is a good matchup against a weaker Magic team and I can’t believe I’m recommending Sacramento guys in cash.
Kent Bazemore FD - $6300 DK - $5700
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 31.86 DK - 31.86
This guy can be a rollercoaster of a DFS play. Sometimes you are along for the ride when he’s knocking down threes, racking up steals and looking like every bit a superb wing with handles. And then other times the ride derails off the track and you’re lineups go up in stunning flames. Like with Trae Young, the Hawks are in a good spot here against a terrible Cavs’ team, but Bazemore is probably more a GPP play because of how variable his performances are night to night.
Kawhi Leonard FD - $9800 DK - $9500
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 49.1 DK - 48.24
He sat out on the front end of the back-to-back on Monday against the Bucks but will be back against the Sixers on Tuesday. This might be something of a theme for Leonard this year after losing basically a whole season to injury in 2017-18. I saw him as a potential play against Milwaukee before being ruled out and not much has changed here. Here’s what I wrote about Kawhi going into yesterday’s matchup and it all still holds true here. *I still think we are buying at value on Kawhi who’s averaging 20 shots per game and shooting 45% from three. He’s rebounding at the best rate of his career (eight per game) and, if anything, is running a little bad on the defensive stats. This could be something of a leverage game considering who they’re facing and the minutes will be there for Leonard. It’s getting harder and harder to pay for the guy, but he’s still coming cheap enough.
Carmelo Anthony FD - $6700 DK - $5300
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 30.53 DK - 31.44
Much like the notes for Chris Paul and Eric Gordon, Carmelo Anthony sees more opportunity with the Rockets banged up. Not only are they without Harden, but Melo moved into James Ennis’ starting role with the latter down because of injury. Over the last two games, Anthony has played an average of 36 minutes and put up 23 points per. The rebounds are on again, off again, and you really can only trust the scoring out of Melo. It’s encouraging that he’s taking the most three-pointers of his career at 6.6 per game and knocking them down around 36% of the time. That will continue as a theme playing for the Rockets. His price on DraftKings is very much in the cash game zone and I can see him being a chalkier play on that site.
I see these two guys as the clear SF plays for Tuesday (as of this post). There are some other considerations though depending on the site. Nemanja Bjelica has run major minutes for the Kings and been excellent. He’s averaged 19 points, nine rebounds an four assists over his last three games. Count him as another *safe* Sacramento play.
Aaron Gordon FD - $7700 DK - $6800
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 38.14 DK - 39.02
The Kings are something of a surprise this season, but still are no great shakes on defense and have upped their pace season-over-season. That should leave Aaron Gordon with healthy opportunity. Four of the Magic’s first six games have resulted in them getting blown out, leaving Gordon’s minutes in the lurch. But that game script isn’t likely to play out on Tuesday. When Orlando keeps the game close, Gordon will see his minutes push up over 37 per game. That’s among the highest in the league. He can pile on the points and rebounds in the right kind of game, and this one is shaping up to be that kind of affair. He’s averaging a 15/8 line on the season, but again that’s a little misleading because of how many times the minutes were buzzed off. That variability has also kept the price in check.
Jerami Grant FD - $4800 DK - $4200
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 29.77 DK - 28.86
The Thunder began the year starting Patrick Patterson at the power forward, but it was fairly clear even from the get-go that they preferred Grant at the position. After the first few games bringing Grant off the bench (still playing more minutes than PatPat) they finally moved the former into the starting lineup two games ago. He’s played 31 or more minutes in each of the last two games, averaging more than ten shots per game over his last three and, if anything, is still running bad from the field. He’s shot only 18% from beyond the arc this season, a number that should tick back up considering he’s a 30% career three-point shooter. We are still buying low on this guy especially if OKC is now trusting him for major PF minutes going forward.
Pascal Siakam FD - $4400 DK - $3900
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 27.11 DK - 26.34
Serge Ibaka FD - $5200 DK - $5100
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 26.41 DK - 26.21
With Kawhi back, I don’t think we can count on quite the same minutes (or production) that we saw from either of these guys on Monday, but if O.G. Anunoby sits again then we are likely to see at least some wing/ power forward minutes open up for the Raptors. Siakam is the real bargain on both sites. Without O.G. in the lineup over the last two games, he’s been excellent. He put up a 22 point, eight rebound game against the Bucks and 10 points, seven rebounds, three assists versus the Mavericks. The latter game is more the expectation with Kawhi back in the mix, but Siakam is still coming dirt cheap if he’s going to see this many minutes.
Nerlens Noel FD - $3900 DK - $4300
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 30.6 DK - 28.98
Steven Adams FD - $7500 DK - $6900
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 30.95 DK - 31.93
Here we have an “if this, then that” situation with the center position for the Thunder. Both of these guys are questionable against the Clippers and if one were to sit, the other instantly becomes a value play for this slate. Adams got a late scratch last game, with Noel drawing the start in his place. The latter was the play of the slate, going for 20 points, 15 rebounds and four steals in the Thunder win over the Suns. If Adams sat again, Noel would likely be the highest-owned player on the slate.
Conversely, if Noel sat, we’d probably see major run minutes out of Adams who’d averaged 34 minutes a game before sitting out Sunday. He’s averaging a 14 point, 12 rebound line this year while shooting under his 63% FG% from last season. It helps Adams to have Russ back in the lineup from a usage perspective so I think we see his scoring numbers tick up moving forward.
Willie Cauley-Stein FD - $7100 DK - $6300
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 36.85 DK - 35.94
The third King player on the list. What the hell is this world coming to?! WCS is just another example of Sacramento really shoring up their starting rotation and feeling more comfortable actually trying to win. It’s a crazy reversal from what we’ve come to expect from this train wreck of a franchise. But here we are and Cauley-Stein has been crushing it in the short term. Over his last three games (against Memphis, Washington and Miami no less) he’s put up 19 points, 12 rebounds (with some other stats thrown in around the margins) on 34 minutes per game. He’ll draw an easier matchup against the Magic who don’t have much of a defender in Vucevic down low. I’m prepared for the Kings to go back to Kings-ing at some point, but for now, you have to trust their rotations.