Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 10
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Ryan Fitzpatrick FD 7600 DK 5900
Proj Points FD - 20.19 DK - 20.3
So this is one hell of a week to try and analyze from a DFS perspective. We have 4 games with 10 point opening spreads and 7 games with 50+ point totals. Welcome to the NFL in 2018. Perhaps even weirder than these NCAA level spreads and totals is the unlikely ascendance of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Can a 35 year old journeyman back-up really step in and put up not just the best game of his career, but perhaps the best averages of any quarterback this season? It kind of looks like he can. We wrote up Fitzy last week, and he wound up outperforming the much higher owner Newton with four passing touchdowns and 26 fantasy points. The 60% completion percentage was on the lower end for him this season, but still utterly serviceable in a game where the Panthers knew he had to pass. In a game where the Bucs are three point favorites, he should get a little bit more space to create. I do love that the Bucs seem totally reliant on the passing game, especially when they get down and close. Tampa running backs have just two touchdowns this season. The Redskins are basically a league average match-up, so there isn't a lot to see there - but Fitzpatrick is just worth more than these current prices.
Aaron Rodgers FD 8600 DK 6400
Proj Points FD - 23.95 DK - 25.58
Rodgers is sort of a unique play here because he's one of the few big name quarterbacks in a similar situation to Fitzy - his running backs basically don't do anything. Rodgers isn't exactly cheap, and I don't know that I wouldn't just rather play Fitzpatrick on FanDuel and take the savings, but on DraftKings? It's looking pretty attractive. The big question mark with Rodgers right now is the completion percentage. He's dipped back down to his outlier 2015 season when he completed just 60% of his passes. In every other season of his career he's been at least at 64%. If you think Rodgers has taken a step back this season you probably don't want to play him. If you think it's early season noise, you run with him. I tend to think it's noise, given that he's not missing badly (as evidenced by the 1 INT on the season). Green Bay has the 4th highest implied total on this slate, but unlike the teams ahead of them (the Saints, Chargers, Chiefs, and Rams), they have no semblance of a running game. Miami's also an insanely good match-up - they've allowed the 5th most yards per attempt on the season through the air.
Baker Mayfield FD 7400 DK 5400
Proj Points FD - 19.8 DK - 20.09
Mitch Trubisky FD 7700 DK 5600
Proj Points FD - 21.3 DK - 21.47
I think the above two options are significantly more attractive, but Trubisky and Mayfield are interesting poor-man's options. A lot of the argument for playing these two comes down to match-up. The Falcons and Lions are both top 6 match-ups in the NFL for opposing passers in terms of yards per attempt allowed, and the guys with better match-ups have their own issues. Rivers (against OAK) throws 26 times a game, Alex Smith (against TB) isn't fantasy viable, and Andy Dalton (against NO) has been wildly erratic. This isn't to say that Trubisky and Mayfield don't have their own issues. Trubisky has multiple single digit fantasy performances this season, and it's not unreasonable to picture the Bears' D eating the Lions alive in the same way that they did to the Bills. Mayfield meanwhile has had the higher floor, but he lacks the transcendent ceiling. Nonetheless I can absolutely see people taking these cheap options on DraftKings where the extra money really matters.
Todd Gurley FD 10800 DK 9400
Proj Points FD - 25.26 DK - 26.13
Gurley had easily his worst game of the season in Week 9 and the dude still managed a 13/68/1 line on the ground and seven targets in the passing game (good for only 6/11, but still). The price actually came down on both sites even though the opportunity is still more than there for the best fantasy running back in the game. He was on the field for all but six of the Rams’ offensive snaps and is on pace for around 2200 all-purpose yards and high 20’s TDs if he keeps this pace. There’s no reason to assume he enters Week 10 as anything other than the highest volume running back as a 10-point home favorite against the Seahawks. It’s worth mentioning that Seattle is a top DVOA defense on the season (6th against the run, 2nd overall) but the big home favorite line is right in the sweet spot for bell-cow running backs. There are other RBs in similar spots for Week 10, so I wouldn’t call Gurley a must-play but he has the highest floor of anyone at the position.
Alvin Kamara FD 8800 DK 8700
Proj Points FD - 21.94 DK - 24.88
This game has the highest implied total (54) and a thin spread (NO -4.5) meaning we likely see Kamara, once again, get the high leverage running back touches for the Saints. In Week 9 against the Rams, he out-snapped Mark Ingram 41-34 which isn’t an overwhelming share, but still managed 19 carries and five targets for 116 yards and three touchdowns. The key for Kamara is that in leverage games, he’s the Red Zone running back for this team as evidenced by his 1-yard touchdown run in the second quarter last week. The Bengals are a bottom-third defense on the season and rank 29th in DVOA against the run. It might feel a bit off ranking Kamara over some of the other elite running back plays on this slate, but his price point is still very much a value.
Nick Chubb FD 6700 DK 5500
Proj Points FD - 14.87 DK - 15.72
The Browns have been consistent in two ways this season. One, they keep on losing. Two, they get their lead running back a lot of touches regardless. Since taking over the running back duties for Carlos Hyde, Chubb has carried the ball 18, 18, and 21 times (all in losses) with an average of two targets per game. This is butting up against elite usage and we haven’t even seen the plan if god forbid the Browns ever found themselves winning a game. That might not be in the cards for Week 10 as a 4.5 home dog to the Falcons, but Chubb still has a solid floor because the touches appear consistent independent of game script. The Falcons are a bottom-feeding defense on the season, second-to-last overall and against the run. Chubb’s price is very much a value on these touches with room for upside if the Browns can control the game early.
A few notes on other running backs of interest. Both Kareem Hunt and Melvin Gordon come into their respective games as big time favorites (KC -17, LAC -10) and are clearly the dominant backs in the offense. My concern on Hunt is there is a blowout risk and the Chiefs have been fine spreading the ball around in the offense. He’s still an elite option for sure, but I feel like there’s more downside at this price than upside. Gordon meanwhile still carries some usage concerns. He hasn’t topped 20 carries in a game yet this season and is only ranked 7th in terms of running back touches (carries + targets). That’s asking a lot to go right at his price point.
And finally, I’m bullish on Aaron Jones this week. He’s clearly the more talented of the two Green Bay running backs and just hasn’t busted out the big carry game. The Packers are favorites this week and a strong start by Jones could lead to him crushing value against the Dolphins.
Julio Jones FD 8700 DK 8300
Proj Points FD - 18.42 DK - 21.07
If you're paying up on the main slate at wide receiver, it's hard to believe that Julio Jones isn't the best available option. Davantae Adams saw a decrease in targets with Cobb back, Michael Thomas is coming off a huge week but that was after four weeks of single target limbo, and then you're down below $8,000 wide receivers. Julio, meanwhile, has quietly strung together three 100 yard weeks where he averaged 12 targets. He's quietly just 14 yards behind Adam Thielen for first in the NFL, and is really just some bad touch down luck away from being in the same conversation as him in terms of the best wide receiver seasons this year. Vegas has the Falcons as modest four point favorites in a game with a 51 total, so Jones' targets shouldn't be in a game-script based jeopardy here. He looks like a great play in all formats if you can somehow afford him.
Jarvis Landry FD 6400 DK 6200
Proj Points FD - 13.44 DK - 16.83
Realistically, if you're going to want to settle in on some mid-range wide receivers. Landry was a popular option last week for people that wanted to go triple-expensive at running back, and I suspect he'll be highly owned here as well. Landry's targets dipped below double digits for the first time before week two, he's still just four targets behind Adam Thielen for first in the NFL, and he's 10 ahead of the third place options. These are just jokes of prices for a guy being targeted that often, even if he does have a rookie quarterback. Like I wrote about Mayfield, the Falcons are just a bad passing defense, and you have to imagine that the Browns will be leaning heavily on Landry if they are going to stay in this one.
Cooper Kupp FD 6500 DK 6400
Proj Points FD - 13.58 DK - 15.48
Almost 50 percent of the field stuck their necks out on Kupp for cash game purposes last week, and it worked out swimmingly for them. Kupp hauled in 5 receptions for 89 yards and a touchdown, and looked like he hadn't missed a beat in returning from his knee injury. The only fly in the ointment was the relative lack of targets compared to what he had seen before he went down, with Goff electing to spread targets out a lot more than he had been prior to Kupp's injury. Still, Kupp was out there for 60 snaps, and you have to think that he'll be in line for more than a 10% target share in the future. Seattle is considerably strong defending outside receivers than slot receivers, and I think we see a nice bounceback for Kupp this week.
Marvin Jones FD 6200 DK 5500
Proj Points FD - 13 DK - 16.12
The Lions might honestly elect to never pass again after Stafford suffered 10 sacks in week 9, but assuming they get back on the saddle, I like Jones going forward. It was a little hard to know what the real plan was for Jones since Stafford had so little time on his drop backs, but early returns suggest that Jones will be the primary beneficiary of Golden Tate's vacated targets. He saw 8 targets last week compared to Golladay's 4, and Jones is arguably the most impacted receiver when it comes to losing targets to sacks thanks to his generally longer routes. Stafford won't have an easier time against the Chicago defense, but it also stands to reason that the Lions are going to have to pass. I like Jones less than the above guys, but he's still plenty good enough to run alongside the other two in a triple-cheap wide receiver strategy.
Tyler Boyd will draw a lot of attention this week in cash games because of AJ Green's injury. We likely need to exercise a bit of caution here as now Boyd will draw much worse coverage. Green's presence, for sure, opened up opportunities for Boyd.
Jack Doyle FD 5600 DK 4300
Proj Points FD - 10.71 DK - 13.12
After sitting out multiple weeks because of injury, Doyle returned in Week 8 and led the Colts in passing targets with seven (and a 23% target share). Indy was off in Week 9, but will return as favorites against the Jaguars at home. Look, at this point, you know tight end is a weekly dice roll with very few volume receivers in the player pool. The prices mostly sit in the “please just don’t give me a zero, a TD would have me praising the gods” range. On a target-per-game basis, Doyle ranks behind only Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce this season (Ebron too, but that’s only because Doyle was out). We can put him into the upper tier of the position even though he’s the seventh most expensive play. This one feels pretty easy.
Jordan Reed FD 5200 DK 4400
Proj Points FD - 9.1 DK - 11.23
If it’s ever going to happen for Reed, this has to be the week right? Right? He’s facing the very worst passing defense in the league who’ve been obliterated by opposing tight ends. Last week Greg Olsen went 6/76/1, before that David Njoku put up 4/52/1, Austin Hooper 9/71/1, Trey Burton 2/86/1, and phew, you get the point. Tight ends basically have their best games of the season against this team. Reed actually ranks 7th in targets among tight ends with the big issue being just nothing happens with said targets. He only has 340 yards receiving (easily the lowest of the top group) and one touchdown. Let's buy low on the matchup and hope this is the week Alex Smith turns Reed into a viable pass catcher. (And yes I’m aware Vernon Davis out-snapped and out-targeted Reed last week, I’m still buying on the latter’s track record with snaps and targets.)
This week in Defense
Last week saw Chicago run two defensive touchdowns, four turnovers, and 4 sacks to the top off big tournament winning lineups, and early lines suggest we might see some big defensive performances this week as well.
Popular cheap options Buffalo and Denver mostly sucked, and paying up seemed like the only way to get quality defensive performance.
So where do we go this week?
I think we can actually get the best of both worlds in the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams are 10 point favorites against the Seahawks, and while the Rams have been pretty bad on defense this season, that's only led to them being extremely cheap. The $2,400 price tag on DraftKings is a joke for a ten point favorite, and being a favorite this size also generally means a defense will get a better shot at sacks and interceptions. LAR has actually been a middle of the pack sacks team this season, and this just looks like a phenomenal spot.
After them you could also consider the Green Bay Packers against a Brock Osweiler led Miami team. The Pack are a top 6 sack team, they are also 10 point favorites, and the Dolphins have a lowered implied total than the Seahawks do. You're not going to play them for more money on DraftKings, I don't think, but on FanDuel you should see very high ownership percentage.
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- CHIEFS-PACKERS: (AP Foto/Mike Roemer)