Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 11/12/18
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We'll kick it off with one of the easier plays of the night. With Jeff Teague expected to remain out for the seventh straight game, Jimmy Butler gone and Andrew Wiggins questionable, Rose is going to grab 35+ minutes and will demolish value. His price still isn't high enough and this match-up with the Nets is impeccable. They rank in the bottom 10 against both guard positions and play at one of the faster paces in basketball. Rose has looked like his old self and now doesn't have to worry about Jimmy Butler running the point half the time. Rose is a great play in all formats and will likely be in 100% of mine. He is likely to be among the highest-owned players on the entire slate, especially on FanDuel.
When Stephen Curry is out, Quinn Cook is a player to watch. He’s a very good point guard and will get paid well when his contract is over. In the absence of Curry on Saturday night, Cook put up 41 FanDuel points in just 29 minutes. He put up more shots (16) than Durant and had the ball in his hands more. 29 minutes is just about his floor without Curry and it will only go up from there. The Clippers love to play fast and don’t play any defense. Quinn Cook is slowly rising in price, but anything under $6k is a steal when he’s the PG1.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander FD - $5000 DK - $4200
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 22.57 DK - 22.4
Patrick Beverley FD - $4800 DK - $4100
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 26.84 DK - 27.81
Both of these Clippers guards are in an excellent spot and it really just depends on what you prefer out of a value PG. Beverley is a bit more consistent and has been over 30 minutes in four of his last five. With that said, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander joined the starting lineup just two games ago and has averaged 37 minutes played between the games. With Avery Bradley facing a possible lengthy absence, I expect Gilgeous-Alexander to make a name for himself and keep the starting gig for the rest of the season. Tonight, they play the fast-paced Warriors. No matter how close this game stays, the Clippers are going to run a ton and these two guards are in line for a safe 25-30 with the upside for so much more. Both are safe in cash games and tournaments at their respective prices.
Klay Thompson FD - $7000 DK - $6900
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 39.87 DK - 41.56
With Curry and Dray out last game, the Warriors still put a whooping on the Nets. When looking at the box score, I would take it with a grain of salt as the starters played less minutes than they have all month. We should see things go back to the norm tonight and for Klay to see those 32+ solid minutes. He’s going to shoot the ball a ton (20+) and will have the ball in his hands a lot. Thompson is one of the safest plays on the entire slate as I just don’t see how he doesn’t keep shooting the ball all game long. Let’s look at some cheaper options at the position.
Dennis Schroder FD - $7200 DK - $7300
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 38.34 DK - 39.34
With Westbrook out, Schroder is grabbing 30 minutes on a consistent basis and now gets one of the best match-ups in all of basketball. We know we love targeting the Suns on the perimeter as they play fast and don't like playing defense. Schroder, while still slated a SG, runs the point and has a very safe floor. His price is getting up there, but the upside is well over 50 and the floor is at 30. There are a ton of options at shooting guard and I see Schroder falling between 10-15%. He's a bit more expensive than Thompson and while I don't like him as much, the floor is similar and the ownership will be half.
Josh Okogie FD - $4500 DK - $3900
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 21.86 DK - 22.01
With Jimmy Butler out of town, I expect Josh Okogie to groove himself out a nice role in this offense. He’s talented enough to do whatever they ask and versatile enough to put up fantasy production as long as the minutes are there. With Butler out in the past, Okogie has showed flashes of upside with 35+ FP in one game and 25+ in the other four. He's an even more attractive play if Wiggins remains out because the T-Wolves will be very short on wings. Expect him to get big minutes on the wing and to make a huge difference. The match-up tonight with Brooklyn couldn’t be better. They've slowed things down a bit this season, but don’t play any defense. Okogie is solid value across the board.
Kevin Durant FD - $11300 DK - $11000
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 59.7 DK - 60.48
It’s hard to get away from Kevin Durant with Curry out of the lineup. He wasn’t great against Brooklyn, but as I said, none of the starters played big minutes and it was a disappointment all around. Durant and crew should be back over 30 minutes and I expect Durant to shoot the ball 20+ times as long as it stays generally close. His price has risen with all of the injuries, but he’s seeing all the attention he wants on this offense and can put up 70+ fantasy points on any given night. The Clippers are the last defense you should ever be scared of, ranking 26th against SF’s. They also play fast and can usually keep the game relatively close. Durant is as safe as it gets for a superstar on this slate.
Kawhi Leonard FD - $9400 DK - $8700
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 48.5 DK - 47.47
If you don't want to pay all the way up for Kevin Durant or you just can't, Kawhi Leonard is an alternative I can fully get behind. He has been weird the last couple games, but I think it's pretty obvious to see what's going on if you know the NBA. He played just 23 minutes last night and while that's typically scary, I love Leonard on some rest. i just see him as more likely to reach 25 minutes in this one. The Pelicans are a terrible defense and Leonard has plenty of experience dominating them. His price is far too low and I think he settles around $100k for the majority of the season. Leonard is a great option in both cash games and tournaments.
Wesley Iwundu FD - $3500 DK - $3000
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 13.24 DK - 13.12
With Aaron Gordon out, I really don’t hate this value play. To be clear, this is who I’m recommending you play on FanDuel for $3500. He’s minimum-priced, so I figured something was better than nothing if you usually just punt a position and hope that score gets canceled out. Iwundu played 32 minutes last time out and put up 20 fantasy points against the Knicks. He now sees the Wizards, who play even fast and don’t know what perimeter defense is. Iwundu is nothing special but deserves to be your minimum guy on FD.
LaMarcus Aldridge FD - $8400 DK - $8100
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 41.12 DK - 40.96
Aldirdge is just a bit too cheap for this match-up. He's not the most exciting big man or the guy with the biggest upside, but you know the offense is running through him and the floor is great against the Kings. They play at one of the fastest paces in all of basketball and don't have any defensive interior presence. Aldridge is priced way down to $8100 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, needing you 45 to smash value. The Kings will toss the likes of Skal and Bagley at LMA, who are fare too young and inexperienced to stay with LaMarcus Aldridge. He will be pretty popular at one of the weaker positions of the night, but has a phenomenal floor and upside over 60.
Pascal Siakam FD - $6200 DK - $5900
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 30.94 DK - 30.71
Pascal Siakam has turned an obvious corner this off-season and is looking like a much better player. He’s always been solid on defense, but his offensive efficiency is finally catching up. He’s been over 30 minutes in just about every game and will need to be out there tonight to combat with Anthony Davis. Davis is electric on offense, but the Pelicans rank 22nd against power forwards, so they can be taken advantage of down low. Expect Siakam to be out there for 30-35 minutes against a set of bugs that don’t rebound much and would rather elect to not get into anyone’s way. Siakam is fairly priced on both sites and a legitimate value play that is extremely safe as long as he stays out of foul trouble.
Jarell Martin FD - $3500 DK - $3000
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 16.52 DK - 16.94
Jarell Martin has always produced when given the opportunity. In Memphis, we would play him all the time when Randolph was out. He’s now in Orlando and the backup for Aaron Gordon, who’s dinged up. He missed last game and it resulted in Martin playing a solid 27 minutes and matching it with a FP per minute. He’ll get the 25+ minutes again tonight and has a better match-up with a Wizards squad that can give it up down low. Martin is way too cheap and an elite option in all formats.
Karl-Anthony Towns FD - $10300 DK - $8900
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 52.54 DK - 54.97
Karl-Anthony Towns can finally settle down. Jimmy Butler is gone. He’s been scared out of his mind of Butler for the last few months and hasn’t played up to par to start the season. He did go off last game, though, and it seemed like a nice farewell to Butler. He’ll now have the reigns of the offense fully in his hands and will likely put up 30 real-life points on most nights. He gets an impeccable match-up with the Nets, who rank in the bottom 10 against both the 4 and 5. They don’t rebound or play interior defense, all the while playing fast. Towns is expensive but worth every penny in this match-up with the new look Timberwolves.
Julius Randle FD - $7300 DK - $6600
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 38.37 DK - 40.8
We are waiting on some big news out of this Pelicans team. Nikola Mirotic is currently questionable and impacts a ton if he’s out. It starts with Julius Randle. With Mirotic out last game, Randle put up 45 fantasy points in 37 minutes. I don’t love targeting the Raptors at all, but 35+ minutes at that price for Randle is something you can pass up. He’s always been effective when in the floor and a 1.16 FP per minutes proves that. If Mirotic does return, this offense is one I have no interest in. If Mirotic is out, Davis, Randle and Holiday are in much better spots.
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- Warriors Lakers Basketball: (AP Photo/John Locher)