Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 11/14/18

It's a huge Wednesday of NBA action on FanDuel and DraftKings. We've got some injury news to wade through, players looking at increase opportunity and some underpriced superstars. Let's get to it.

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Point guard

Spencer DinwiddieSpencer Dinwiddie FD - $5800 DK - $4900
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 28.93 DK - 29.94
Caris Levert went down with a gruesome looking leg injury on Monday (it was a dislocation and it’s nuts but there’s talk the dude might even return this season). Dinwiddie stepped in and played 28 minutes. I suspect he enters the starting lineup alongside D’Angelo Russell and should take over primary ball handling duties for the Nets. At these prices, he really only needs to bump up against 30 or so minutes in order to hit value. In just 27 minutes a game, Dinwiddie is averaging 14 points and four assists, but considering how ball-dominant Levert had been this season, there’s shot attempts and assists to go around.

John WallJohn Wall FD - $10200 DK - $9100
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 49.67 DK - 50.73
Oh man, the Wiz are real tough to watch. They were able to pull off a come-from-behind win over the Magic on Monday, but it didn’t look pretty. Wall played *only* 33 minutes, finishing with a 25 point, 10 assist line. The DraftKings price hasn’t moved much and he’s an excellent option on that site for Wednesday. It helps that the Wiz get the league’s worst defense in the Cavaliers and it stands to reason Collin Sexton and company will have major issues containing Wall in this matchup. I’m still a bit concerned with the latter’s dip in assists this season, but at least the scoring is up a tad.

There’s a strong case to be made for Damian Lillard in the matchup against the Lakers. I think I prefer John Wall at a similar price point, but it’s close. Dame’s per minute scoring is up this season thanks to an increased usage rate with the rebound and assist numbers up as well.

As a quick side note, our system loves the Trail Blazers and the points here. Back them for the win with the Moplay free bet via OLBG.

Keep an eye out on the Timberwolves’ situation. Jeff Teague and Andrew Wiggins are both listed questionable for Wednesday. If one, or both, sat, Derrick Rose would catapult to the top of the value chain as a high-usage candidate against the Pelicans.

Shooting Guard

D'Angelo RussellD'Angelo Russell FD - $7500 DK - $6700
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 36.57 DK - 38.17
With Levert off the court at the beginning of the second half, Russell played his second-most minutes of the season (33) and scored his most points (31). Levert led the team in scoring and took the second-most shots on the team (after Russell). This is going to open up scoring opportunity for the Nets who could now push their two primary ball handlers. Russell’s 15 three-point attempts on Monday aren’t soon to be recreated, but a moderate bump in usage should be in the game plan and his minutes become a bit safer without Levert.

C.J. McCollumC.J. McCollum FD - $6400 DK - $6600
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 34.09 DK - 35.19
He’s incredibly scoring dependent which can make him difficult to stomach in cash games, but it’s also the thing keeping the price in check. Among players who’ve scored more than 300 FanDuel points this season, McCollum is the 4th most on dependent on scoring for his fantasy production (Klay, JJ, THJ only ones ahead of him). It means that if the shot is falling and the attempts are there, he’s got all the upside in the world. But when the shooting runs cold, you’ll miss the mark on hospice tag. This is the kind of matchup that should lend itself to CJ’s upside. The Lakers are playing the third-fastest pace in the league with a below average defensive efficiency.

This is a fantastic spot for DeMar Derozan against the Suns. He isn’t shooting as much as in the early season, but is still averaging 17 shots per game over his last five. He’s seen spikes in rebounding with three double-digit rebound games on the season, but those can come and go. I like him in the matchup against the Suns, but don’t think he’s a must for cash games.


Small Forward

T.J. WarrenT.J. Warren FD - $6400 DK - $5800
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 32.82 DK - 32.7
He’s firmly entrenched in the starting lineup now for the Suns (the Ryan Anderson experiment appears completely over) and Warren has been running major minutes for Phoenix. He’s played 37, 37 and 40 minutes in regulation over the last three games, averaging 25 points, six rebounds and a smattering of defensive stats over that stretch. The Spurs still play slow, but their defensive efficiency has been around the middle of the pack this season and opposing wings have given them particular trouble. They allow about 10% more scoring and 12% more rebounding to SF/stretch four types. You have to like the minutes floor on Warren here and this game projects as close with the Vegas line opening at -5 in favor of the Spurs with a 211 over/under. Also, consider Trevor Ariza as a cheaper play in this spot.

Kyle AndersonKyle Anderson FD - $5600 DK - $4800
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 27.31 DK - 25.76
Do I like the idea of playing Kyle Anderson in cash? Of course not. But this guy has played 33 or more minutes in his last three games and has 13 rebounds in each of the last two. With Dillon Brooks out, the Grizz are getting short on wings and have been fine playing Slo-Mo major minutes in the short term. It helps that he matches up well with the length of the Bucks and I do think he runs big minutes again on Wednesday. He’s averaging 10 points and 10 rebounds over his last three and some assists and defensive stats thrown in there as well. I suspect you see Memphis use Anderson to try and slow down Giannis and short of foul trouble the former could play minutes in the high 30’s again.

Giannis AntetokounmpoGiannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11800 DK - $11000
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 61.14 DK - 62.25
Speaking of Giannis, he’s at least worth a mention on this slate. The matchup is terrible against a slow, defensively sound Memphis team, but the Bucks’ superstar is putting up such ridiculous numbers that we need to take him into account most nights. He’s averaging 25 points, 14 rebounds, six assists and a ton of defensive stuff every night. The numbers are ridiculous. It’s just a matter of price and matchup at this point. I think he’s very much in consideration but could cede ownership to the guy below.


Power Forward

Anthony DavisAnthony Davis FD - $12300 DK - $11300
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 61.14 DK - 60.81
There’s no early line on this game because the Pelicans have Mirotic questionable and the Timberwolves have Teague and Wiggins with the Q tag. Suffice to say, almost no matter what shakes out for the Pelicans, Davis is in a prime spot as the top overall big money play on the slate. Brow has gone full beast mode over his last three games, averaging 28 points, 16 points, six assists and 2.5 blocks in that stretch. He’s taken 20 or more shots in three of his last four games and will meet little in the way of resistance from the Karl Anthony-Towns-led defensive interior of the Timberwolves. This is a spot to spend up for Davis, especially on a bigger slate where cheaper value tends to open up closer to lineup lock.

Larry Nance Jr.Larry Nance Jr. FD - $6300 DK - $5500
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 31.17 DK - 30.54
Nance was an overwhelming chalk play on a short, three-game slate on Tuesday. It will be interesting to see where his ownership ends up here on the bigger one. He played a season-high 35 minutes and grabbed 12 rebounds. The scoring, still, wasn’t there, putting up only seven points on only six shots. He’s not a candidate to see much more usage considering the way the Cavs’ *offense* runs. But the minutes against a sloppy Washington team could see him at value on these prices.

Noah VonlehNoah Vonleh FD - $4600 DK - $5100
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 27 DK - 27.57
Markieff MorrisMarkieff Morris FD - $5000 DK - $4600
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 25.32 DK - 26.21
These are the two guys who could put up major numbers but are always at risk of losing their minutes. Vonleh has put up some excellent lines, double-doubling in two consecutive games earlier in the month. But over the last two, he’s averaged only 25 minutes and a five-point, eight rebound line. The price is way down and he could see a bounce-back game, but he’s anything but safe.

Much is the same with Markieff who’s coming off a 39 minute, 16 point, eight rebound game. The key for Morris is he gets a bottom-feeding Cavs’ team, ranking near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency (last night’s Hornets’ game aside). He’s coming very cheap on both sites, but really comes into play on FanDuel where we need to keep rostering two power forwards.



Hassan WhitesideHassan Whiteside FD - $9200 DK - $8400
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 50.93 DK - 51.08
To say the Nets have been obliterated by opposing centers this season would be putting it rather mildly. Even though the same size is on the smaller side, it’s tough to ignore just how badly Brooklyn’s been pummeled on the interior this season. They are allowing a shocking 32% more scoring and 41% more rebounding than league average to the position. And even if those numbers are a bit on the outlier side, it still speaks to just how undersized they are down low. They could be without Jarrett Allen again, but it honestly doesn’t really matter. Whiteside comes in as one of the top plays on the slate and has 20-20 upside in this game.

I think Whiteside is, far and away, the best center play on the evening. No other big man even comes all the close. So let’s walk through some of the secondary options on a bigger Wednesday slate. Theoretically, Dwight Howard is walking into an excellent matchup against the Cavs. The problem is the Wiz big man isn’t locked into crunch time minutes. There’s still plenty to like, especially on DraftKings at only $5800. He could easily double-double in this matchup and could end up in cash games on that site even if projected for only around 29 minutes.

Meanwhile, Andre Drummond makes for an excellent GPP play. He will garner low ownership and the Spurs struggle to defend the paint in their current make up. Our system loves his upside.

And finally, if Mirotic sat out again, then Julius Randle vaults to the top of the center considerations against the Timberwolves.


image sources

1 Visitor Comment

  1. Drummond is playing Toronto. Did you mean to recommend Ayton against the spurs?

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