Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 12

Happy Turkey Day! I can only imagine how jealous our grandfathers would be if they could know how much we've infused even more football into a day that's ostensibly about getting together with family and spend time together. Now you've got all of the games to watch, and the hour before lineup lock to get in your lineups? We should all be so blessed. On this Thanksgiving, I'm grateful for the incredible bounty of being able to go way too deep on a three game NFL slate.

Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL optimizer for FanDuel and DraftKings, our MLB Optimizer, and our NFL Player Lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.

First time with NFL? Be sure to read our free MLB and NFL Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.

Quarterback

Drew Brees FD 9000 DK 6700
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 21.77 DK - 21.45
Matt Ryan FD 8600 DK 6100
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 20.72 DK - 21.31

The Drew Brees or Matt Ryan question will be a fundamental one for this Thanksgiving Day slate, and our lineup optimizer sees it as being a really close decision. Brees is averaging .5 more FanDuel points per game this season, but he's also $400 more on FanDuel and $600 more on DraftKings. Ryan's been throwing the ball more, but Brees has been putting up better fantasy totals. Both teams represent great match-ups for opposing quarterbacks, but New Orleans has allowed .5 more yards per attempt in the air this season. Brees has a much better running game behind him, which can vulture his touchdowns (even if it hasn't recently). When it all comes out in the wash, our system slightly prefers Ryan, but mostly because saving the extra $400 really matters on such a short slate with so few options.

Mitch Trubisky FD 7900 DK 5500
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 20.43 DK - 20.56
And hey, if you can't spend all the way up at quarterback, Trubisky isn't such a bad consolation prize. He's got a banged up right shoulder right now, but assuming he's given a full bill of health, he makes for an excellent play here. If you throw out that bizarre Buffalo game, Trubisky has topped 17 fantasy points in 6 of his last 7 games, including 3 games where he topped an astounding 33 fantasy points. During their four game winning streak he's completed almost 65% of his passes. In his last six games he has two rushing touchdowns, and has topped six carries in four of those. Detroit, meanwhile, is the very worst team at defending the pass this season - allowing 9.0 yards per attempt from opposing QBs. Trubisky looks like a high floor high upside option.

 

Running Back

Ezekiel Elliott FD 8700 DK 8600
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 23.24 DK - 25.82

After Todd Gurley mysteriously (or because of game script) disappeared in the Monday night shootout, Elliott vaulted to the top of the running back usage list for the season. He now leads the league with 24.7 touches (carries + targets) per game and is in line for a ton of work on Thanksgiving Day. The Cowboys enter as -7 home favorites (the sweet spot for running back carries) against a Redskins’ team reeling from the loss of Alex Smith. The latter rank 28th in DVOA against the rush this season and last week allowed 4.5 yards per carry to the Lamar Miller/ Alfred Blue combo. Elliott is firmly established as a game-script-independent back who’s already set a career mark in passing targets (56, 38 last season through as many games). This sets his floor incredibly high and he’ll likely be the highest-owned running back on the Thursday set of games.

Theo Riddick FD 4800 DK 4500
Opponent CHI
Proj Points FD - 10.38 DK - 13.36

The Lions were dealt a blow losing Kerryon Johnson to a sprained knee in Week 11, leaving them without their best running back (by a country mile) on a short week going against a stout Chicago defense. I have very little interest in LeGarrette Blount who A: stinks and B: really stinks. Riddick is labeled a RB, but essentially plays as a WR at this point in the Lions’ offense. He out-snapped Blount 27-12 last week against the Panthers, seeing seven passing targets and converting for a 5/30 line. In DraftKings full-point PPR scoring it’s hard to imagine him killing you at these price points considering the Lions will almost certainly be playing from behind. They’ll (likely) be without Marvin Jones again, leaving the pass-catching options very thin on the Lions’ side and Riddick was third on the team in targets for Week 11 after Kenny Golladay and Bruce Ellington. I suspect he sees at least a few carries as well, though I'm not banking on the production coming from that aspect of his game.

In which we talk about the problematic nature of some remaining running back options:

Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram
They obviously have the best match=up and are on the best offense. That part isn’t in question. The issue lies more with their relative timeshare at near-peak price points. In Week 11, Kamara out-snapped Ingram 44-31 but Ingram out-touched him 16-14. See the issue here? Do we really want to pay top dollar on either knowing the other is out there? If there’s enough value at WR to open up playing Kamara, go for it, but Elliott appears far safer.

Jordan Howard
The Bears are four-point road favorites, and Howard does have high-teens carry upside in the right game script. But he does nothing in the passing game, averages less than 3.5 yards per carry this season and is going to need at least a touchdown to hit value.

Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith
Another timeshare, but this one is even worse because the Falcons are massive underdogs to the Saints. Coleman out-snapped Smith 34-20 in Week 11, going 8/58 on the ground and seeing three targets in the passing game. But Atlanta isn’t fully committed to playing him exclusively and if they are playing catch-up then you’re in trouble on his production.

Wide Receiver

Kenny Golladay FD 7200 DK 5400
Opponent CHI
Proj Points FD - 14.87 DK - 18.16
The price has gone up on Golladay, but so has his projection. He was a 65% cash game play last week on a full Sunday main slate, so on a three game slate he could be unanimously owned. Marvin Jones Jr.'s status is still somewhat in doubt, but with 13 and 14 targets the last two weeks you're just playing Golladay regardless. The Bears are a tough match-up, but we're still squarely in price and opportunity mismatch territory.

Tre'Quan Smith FD 6400 DK 4700
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 13.62 DK - 15.5
If you listened to our Friday Game by Game Podcast from last week, you would have heard our very own Chris Durrell try to convince me to play Tre'Quan Smith last week. "We can't be sure he'll get the targets," I said. "Let's give it a week and see if he actually does it," I said. Welp, we got our evidence. Smith was targeted 13 times against the Eagles, and turned those into 10 catches for 157 yards and a touchdown. He's currently listed as questionable, and would have been a non-participant if the Saints practiced on Monday, but he's another guy whose price is set to rise by about 10% if his role remains constant week over week. We mentioned it in the Brees write-up, but this is a great match-up as well.

The Julio Jones vs. Michael Thomas Debate
Two more titans of the game, and we can very likely play just one. So whom do we grab? Let's go to the tale of the tape.

Price? Even.
Fantasy points per game on the season? Edge Thomas by 2 points per game.
Fantasy points over the last three games? Thomas by 4 points per game.

So is it clearly Michael Thomas? I'm honestly not so sure. While Thomas' fantasy point production has been great, the targets have been a different story. In the last three games his targets have gone from 15 to 8 to 4, and with the emergence of Tre'Quan Smith, we could see Thomas settle in the 7-10 target range. Jones, meanwhile, is very obviously still the WR1 by far, and the 20-21 points he's scored in each of the last 3 weeks speaks to his excellent floor. He has 20 more targets on the season, even if it is pretty scary that Thomas has turned 20 fewer targets into 9 more receptions. We might be entering the dreaded "unpopular opinion" territory, but I think I'm leaning Jones.

 

Tight End

Jordan Reed FD 6000 DK 4700
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 10.97 DK - 13.92
It only took a gruesome leg injury to Alex Smith for Jordan Reed to finally found the end zone. Colt McCoy hit Reed from 9-yards out in the third quarter and Reed’s eight-week touchdown drought came to an end. He remains one of the most targeted tight ends in football, ranking fourth on the season at 70. The price ticked up on the solid Week 11 performance (7/71/1 on 11 targets) but with the quarterback change in Washington he will likely be the chalk tight end play for the Thursday slate. It is worth noting that only three of Reed’s targets came in the second half from McCoy (3/20/1).

Austin Hooper FD 5800 DK 4200
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 10.7 DK - 13

He comes a little cheaper than Reed and could see a better volume of pass-catching opportunities in what should be a high-scoring game if the Falcons are playing from behind. Hooper ranks 7th in tight end passing targets this season and has been ultra-efficient catching 80% of his looks. He was second on the team in targets last week with eight, though had a terrible time converting them, going only 4/27. The Saints have handled tight ends well this season, ranking 5th in DVOA against the position but Hooper is still in play on this short slate because the tight end player pool is a disaster after Reed.

 

Thanksgiving Day Defensive Plays

For starters, let's discuss the Cowboys and the Bears. They are expensive, and making the money work is difficult. The Cowboys might have the highest upside on the slate going up against a back-up QB, but nothing is guaranteed in this world, ya feel me?

So we're likely left going cheaper once again. In spite of liking Trubisky this week, I might also like the Lions defense. Trubisky is certainly not incapable of having a bad game, and the Lions do have a few playmakers back there.

But what about the Saints? The Falcons quietly have a lower implied total than the Cowboys or the Bears, and we're fresh off a week where the Saints defense dumpstered a very capable Philly offense. They're super cheap once again, and we might be headed back there to keep a little extra money in our pocket.

Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL optimizer for FanDuel and DraftKings, our NBA Optimizer, and our new Player Lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.

First time with NFL? Be sure to read our free MLB and NFL Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.