Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

12/01/2018
Austyn Varney

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 12/1/18

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Point Guard

Kyle LowryKyle Lowry FD - $8300 DK - $8400
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 38.89 DK - 39.97

Welcome to NBA Saturday. It may be NCAAF Championship Week, but we have a phenomenal slate of basketball on our hands and there is money to be made. There are six games on the board with plenty of injury news waiting to open things up. We'll kick it off in Cleveland, where the Raptors will do their best not to blow out the Cavs. Vegas currently has the Raptors as 13 point favorites, so I don't think it's a good idea to steer clear of the superstars. The Cavs have been playing a lot better and will have home court advantage. The Raptors will still maintain control of the game and that all starts with Kyle Lowry. He's been extremely consistent around 35-40 fantasy points and has performed well in plus match-ups. The Cavaliers rank 19th against point guards and play faster than average. Lowry is cheaper than the rest of the stars at PG and is extremely safe in all formats. You can't go wrong with any of these top four guys.

Darren CollisonDarren Collison FD - $6300 DK - $5400
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 28.02 DK - 27.38
Cory JosephCory Joseph FD - $4400 DK - $4400
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 21.73 DK - 21.41

Neither of these guys are very exciting, but they’re point guards playing against the second fastest team in basketball. Victor Oladipo is also expected to remain out, so the usage bump will remain. Collison has seen a slight price bump, but he’s still affordable and Joseph has remained near the minimum. De’Aaron Fox is one of the worst defensive point guards in basketball and Hield isn’t much better at the two. With only five games on the board, Collison is going to be one of the more popular cash game plays. It’s a great match-up with Oladipo still out on a slate with limited options. Don’t be afraid to jump on board in cash games, but also know there are other solid options. Joseph is one of them.

John WallJohn Wall FD - $9500 DK - $8900
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 46.9 DK - 47.15

Wall has only played 25 minutes in each of his last two games, but there is no need to worry. They got blown out in both games and Wall was nowhere to be found. They now return home to face the Nets, who they’ll surely keep it close with. They both play at a fast PACE and don’t have anybody to match up with Wall 1-on-1. He should return to his normal 34-38 minutes and is one of the safest plays on the board. If Wall is a guy that looks to be under appreciated by the masses, I may go all in. He’s in a perfect spot at home after getting rest over the past few. I don’t see much going wrong for Wall here.

Shooting Guard

James HardenJames Harden FD - $11900 DK - $11900
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 66.15 DK - 70.14
Eric GordonEric Gordon FD - $6000 DK - $6100
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 33.65 DK - 35.5

The Rockets blew out the Spurs, so Harden was able to play just 27 minutes. They’re a very aware franchise and Harden will now be ready to go on the second leg of the back to back. He had as terrible of a night as it gets and still almost put up 50 fantasy points. The Bulls are a terrible defense and Harden will have his way on the inside and outside. Gordon has been priced up just a tad bit, but he’s in a similar situation. He played just 25 minutes last night and is a full go for this one. He was on fire from three last night and will look to keep it going a pitiful Bulls perimeter defense. This is the second leg of a back to back, and with CP3 returning from injury he could very well sit tonight. If h does, both of these guys are musts for me.

Marcus SmartMarcus Smart FD - $4600 DK - $4200
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 27.55 DK - 27.6

Smart was a guy we played in 100% of lineups last night and he paid off in a big way. In 29 minutes of action, he put up 38 fantasy points. He now faces a Timberwolves squad that plays fast and gives up a ton of peripherals. He’s going to get his consistent 30 minutes and I think he saw just 29 last night as the Celtics had this game in mind. Kyrie sitting means more opporturnity for everyone, and while Smart doesn't jump to the top of the Boston food chain, it certainly increases his reps. Smart is a solid option in all formats and the last guy you’re worried about hurting you.

Justin HolidayJustin Holiday FD - $6100 DK - $5600
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 25.18 DK - 25.58

This Holiday price still has room to grow. He has been extremely consistent in terms of both minutes and production, with only one game out of his last five under 35 fantasy points. He's been over 33 minutes in five straight and tonight will be no different. He'll be covered by the likes of Eric Gordon and James Harden, so I'm not worried about the opposing defense. His rebounding was off the charts for a few games, but has dropped to a more realistic number at this point. He's a 30-40 fantasy point player with upside if he gets hot from behind the three.

 

Small Forward

Kawhi LeonardKawhi Leonard FD - $10400 DK - $9600
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 47.5 DK - 47.63

It's hard to deny Durant after the past few games he's had, but the return of Curry combined with the price will drive most off. He is still a great play in tournaments, but I can't get behind him in cash games at this price. I'd rather pivot over to Kawhi Leonard, who's $2k cheaper and has a similar FP expectation. Kawhi has been over 45 fantasy points in four straight contests and was up over 55 in two of those. He now faces a Cavs squad that ranks 27th in the NBA against opposing small forwards. He's going to get his 30-35 minutes and 45 fantasy points. His price is fair across both sites and the upside is there in tournaments. Leonard is a guy I'll be spending up on in my cash games.

Cedi OsmanCedi Osman FD - $5200 DK - $4900
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 26.6 DK - 27.68
Rodney HoodRodney Hood FD - $5100 DK - $4600
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 24.76 DK - 25.4

The Cavs did play last night and Osman continued his consistent 30-35 minutes. He didn’t perform, but we know who he is and what games are outliers. He will be back to his normal self, shooting 3’s and getting involved on the boards. As for Hood, his minutes took a dip last night, but I think the Cavs are just aware of his spotty injury past. He should get back over 30 minutes tonight and has been effective when on the floor. The Raptors are solid defensively, but play at a top 10 PACE. Both of these guys are solid in cash games and Hood has tournament appeal.

 

Power Forward

Blake GriffinBlake Griffin FD - $9200 DK - $9300
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 43.98 DK - 46.02

As long as Draymond Green is out, you have to love the prospect of Blake Griffin against this Warriors team. They don’t have much help on the inside with Green out and if you’ve watched the Pistons this year, you know everything runs through Griffin. He gets a ton of isolation plays as well as run at point. The Warriors love to run and Griffin is one of the few forwards out there that can match them. He only played 30 minutes last night and should be good to go for a full allotment. The Pistons can beat this Warriors squad and will give it their all at home. Griffin has to play 34+ if they want a chance against this squad.

Thaddeus YoungThaddeus Young FD - $5300 DK - $4700
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 25.28 DK - 24.42

Domantas Sabonis is currently questionable to play with a sprained back, so Thaddeus Young may be one of the best plays on the entire night. He played 32 minutes against the Lakers last game and put up 32 fantasy points. The Pacers now head into Sacramento to face off with the Kings, who play the second fastest in all of basketball. Everyone on the team will benefit and Young is already going to see a huge bonus if Sabonis is out. Even if Sabonis plays, Young is a fine play in cash games. If he does indeed sit out, Young is one of the best plays on the entire night and will be in every lineup of mine. He gets involved when on the floor and has a phenomenal match-up.

Harry GilesHarry Giles FD - $4100 DK - $3200
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 11.5 DK - 11.17

Marvin Bagley is also questionable, and if he is out, Harry Giles is in play at close to minimum price. He hasn't played very much recently, but will get 24-28 minutes if Bagley is out and has proven that he can produce. He put up 45 fantasy points in a measly 19 minutes against the Jazz two nights ago and has been over 1 FP/min consistently. His price is extremely low on both sites and I don't see much room to be hurt if Bagley is out. The Pacers play pretty slow, but they rank 15th against opposing power forwards. Skal Labissiere could also grab a few minutes and has also had a ton of upside. With that being said, Giles is a guy I love at the price and I'll have a hard time getting off of him if Bagley is ruled out. It all comes down to the injury news.

 

Center

Clint CapelaClint Capela FD - $8800 DK - $7800
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 51.45 DK - 51.36

Capela put up 57 fantasy points last night, so you’d think he was out there all game long. Nope. He played just 29 minutes. 29 minutes full of rebounding and scoring. He’s right in the same boat with Harden and Gordon, playing under 30 minutes and being in a good spot to go right back out there. They also only played in San Antonio last night, so they were home by midnight. Capela is the safest option at center on the board and a guy I’ll have plugged into each and every cash game lineup.

Thomas BryantThomas Bryant FD - $3500 DK - $3300
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 17.48 DK - 16.89

I would have liked to play Jarrett Allen here, but I can’t trust him after playing 36 minutes just last night. If he does see another full load of minutes, I love him against a fast Wizards team. We’ll instead look to the other side of the ball at the replacement for Dwight Howard. Thomas Bryant hasn’t played huge minutes in the last couple games, but has been around 1 FP per minute and has the leagues best match-up against the Nets. He’s minimum priced as well, so can be your throw away play on FD that has a tad bit of upside. I’ll do my best to fill Capela in everywhere, but Bryant is interesting for the price. Good luck tonight and please comment below with any questions.

 

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image sources

  • Blake Griffin: (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

1 Visitor Comment

  1. Where did the info that Kyrie is sitting tonight come from? I know Brown is expected out but have seen nothing about Kyrie.

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