featured Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Football Top Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 14 - 12/9/18
Week 14 is here and with another big 13-game main slate there are a ton of opportunities to attack GPP's from a stacking perspective. The slate includes five games with a Vegas Total of 49 or greater and seven teams with an implied total of 27 or greater. Let's jump in and take a look at some of the top stacks using the data from our Player Lab.
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Los Angeles Chargers
To start Week 14 I used two filters looking at quarterbacks projected for 40 or more pass attempts facing defenses ranks 25th or worse against the pass. This narrowed the field down to just two players and I will start with Phillip Rivers and the Chargers for a couple of reasons. First of all, with Melvin Gordon is out once again and without him, the Chargers have somewhat gotten away from their balanced pass/run attack and this was evident last week as they threw the ball 62% of the time against the Steelers with Rivers coming just one yard short of 300 with two touchdowns. While Rivers ranks 15th in pass attempts this season he sits 7th in passing yards thanks to a 69.7% completion rate and 9.0 yards per attempt. He is also the only quarterback to throw for multiple touchdowns in every game this season. The Chargers now face a Bengals team that has given up the second-most passing yards per game(279.8) and the most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position.
The argument against Rivers this week is the fact the Chargers are such heavy favorites(-14) and could lean more on their run game but I am willing to take the risk as that could affect his ownership in GPP formats. Looking at FanShareSports, that checks out as Rivers is currently 9th in tags(15) and projected for around 4-6% ownership. You will definitely not get an ownership discount on Keenan Allen(2nd in WR tags with 30) this week as he is coming off a whopping 19 target game and leads all wideouts with an average of 11.8 over the last four games. That doesn't mean he isn't a good play, however, as he should be able to burn the Bengals secondary. If you are looking for a cheaper, lower-owned option to pair with Rivers consider Mike Williams. He has been very inconsistent and gets nowhere near the same target share as Allen but has shown tons of upside at times this season with seven touchdowns with two in a game twice. He is currently 88th in wide receivers tags(5) and should be easily under 5% owned this week.
I mentioned this due a couple weeks back when they were super chalky against the Raiders and will be going back to them in Week 14. What I like most here is that they have seen their mentions go way down since that Week 12 game and most definitely won't be chalk this week. Lamar Jackson is currently 11th in tags(13) among quarterbacks on FanShareSports while Gus Edwards is 16th in tags at the running back position(9). I think most people are afraid that Kansas City will just get out to an early lead and run away with the game which would almost eliminate the run game for the Ravens to the point where we might even see Joe Flacco late in the game if healthy. I will not argue that scenario is very plausible as the Chiefs are an elite offense led by MVP front-runner Patrick Mahomes but I can also make an argument on the other side. First of all, the Ravens are one of the best defenses in the league ranking 2nd in passing yards per game(194.4) and 3rd in rushing yards per game(87.3) which should help keep the game close. The other thing I like is that the best way to keep Patrick Mahomes in check is to leave him on the bench which means running the ball and controlling the clock. This is something the Ravens have done very well since Jackson and Edwards have taken over as starters as they have combined to average just over 38 rushing attempts and 195 rushing yards per game in those three games. Finally, the matchup also stands out as the Chiefs have given up the 11th most rushing yards per game(122) overall and the 5th most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and 2nd most to running backs.